Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com Expo East 2007
Global Business Program Global Business Program U.S. Nutrition Market Figures, U.S. Nutrition Market Figures,
Trends & OpportunitiesTrends & Opportunities
September 26, 2007
Patrick Rea, Editorial Director & Publisher, NBJ
Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
NBJ ProductsNBJ Products
NBJ Subscriptions: Individual paper copy ($995) Corporate ($2.5-$30k depending on users and level of access)
Reports: ($2,995) NBJ’s Healthy Foods Report 2007 NBJ’s Supplement Business Report 2007 NBJ’s Organic Foods Report 2006 NBJ’s Healthy Foods Report 2006 NBJ’s Raw Material & Ingredient Supply Report 2006 NBJ’s Sports Nutrition & Weight Loss Report 2007 NBJ’s M&A Report: Segment Modules
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NBJ Products (cont’d)NBJ Products (cont’d)
New Trend & Market Niche Reports: ($995) CAM and Practitioner Supplement Sales Report 2007 Natural & Organic Personal Care Report 2006 Natural Pet Product and Pet Nutrition Report 2006 Nutrition Bar Trend Report 2006 Joint Health Report 2006 Chinese Nutrition Market Report 2007
Data Charts: Downloadable excel files of 150+ data charts
NBJ Back Issues & Data Packs
Web Seminars; Custom Research, M&A Database
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
NBJ Research MethodologyNBJ Research MethodologyAssess all levels of the value chainAssess all levels of the value chain
Manufacturer: NBJ manufacturer & brand sales survey: NBJ database of 400-500 supplement companies with annual wholesale sales with product and sales channel breakdown; compiled company and category research; executive & analyst interviews
Retail: USA Model: Nielsen mainstream FDM data; IRI scanned data in FDM; SPINS data from A-size (>$2mil) natural stores, survey of 600+ natural independent and chain stores with Natural Food Merchandiser; Costco, WalMart, distributor, GNC, etc. interviews; store & gym visits; C-Store News, Beverage Digest, etc.
Direct: NBJ survey and database of company sales in MLM, practitioner, DRTV, internet, mail order, etc.; DSA, Jordan Whitney, etc.
Consumer: Various usage and attitude surveys modeled into aggregate purchase model to reconcile with manufacturer & retail data
Supply: NBJ’s annual survey of raw material & ingredient supply companies and interviews for NBJ
SPECIAL FOR 2007 NBJ Global issue: NBJ/IADSA survey of global supplement manufacturers; poll of IADSA member associations; interviews with companies, experts and secondary data providers (Euromonitor, Nicholas Hall, Zenith, government research)
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
NBJ USA ForecastNBJ USA Forecast
Products 2006 ($mil) 2006 Growth 07-10 Growth Forecast
Supplements 22,460 5.4% 4-6%
Natural & Organic Food 23,602 13.3% 10-13%
Functional Foods 31,400 10.2% 5-9%
Natural & Organic Personal Care, Household Goods
7,490 14.2% 11-13%
Nutrition Industry 84,952 10.0% 7-9%
Source: Nutrition Business Journal.
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Nutrition Industry: U.S. Nutrition Industry: $85 Bil in 2006$85 Bil in 2006
Supplements26%
N&OFood28%
Functional Foods
37%
N&O Personal Care etc
9%
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales, U.S. Nutrition Industry Sales, 1997-2006 ($85 Bil in 2006)1997-2006 ($85 Bil in 2006)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Nutrition Industry Supply ChainU.S. Nutrition Industry Supply Chain
Consumer Sales ($mil) Retail Direct Wholesale
Raw Materials/
Ingredients
Supplements Total 22,460 14,390 8,070 13,350 2,510
Natural/Organic Food 23,600 23,530 70 13,210 3,170
Functional Food* 31,400 30,950 450 21,640 660
NPC 7,490 4,730 2,760 4,010 580
Total Nutrition Ind. 84,950 73,600 11,360 52,200 6,920
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com Expo East 2007
Today’s U.S. Nutrition Industry Today’s U.S. Nutrition Industry Issues & OpportunitiesIssues & Opportunities
• Specialty Supplement Categories• Obesity & Weight Loss• Natural Retail• Mass Market• Import & Safety Issues• Practitioner
Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Specialty Supplement Sales Growth, U.S. Specialty Supplement Sales Growth, 1995-20061995-2006
11.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Fish Oil Sales, 1997-2006 U.S. Fish Oil Sales, 1997-2006 ($489 Mil in 2006)($489 Mil in 2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Figure: in $Mil
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Probiotic Sales, 1997-2006 U.S. Probiotic Sales, 1997-2006 ($299 Mil in 2006)($299 Mil in 2006)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Figure: in $Mil
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Sports & Energy Drink Sales Growth, U.S. Sports & Energy Drink Sales Growth, 1998-20061998-2006
23.70%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Natural & Organic Food Sales Growth, U.S. Natural & Organic Food Sales Growth, 1995-20061995-2006
13.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
U.S. Natural & Organic Personal Care & U.S. Natural & Organic Personal Care & Household Item Sales Growth, 1995-2006Household Item Sales Growth, 1995-2006
14.2%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com
Supplement Sales: Supplement Sales: Retail vs. Direct Channel GrowthRetail vs. Direct Channel Growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Retail Direct
Source: NBJ/Newport Summit 2007
What do you feel is the consumer trend with the most promising market potential for dietary supplement manufacturers and suppliers?
43 5821 27
Organicingredients
Food safety Country oforigin
declaration
Concern aboutchildren'snutrition
29% 39%
14%18%
Source: NBJ/Newport Summit 2007
Based upon increased concerns about the quality of Chinese materials, have you changed your buying practices or behaviors?
17
3328
Yes definitely To some degree Not at all
22%
42%36%
Source: NBJ/Newport Summit 2007
How will your planned marketing expenditures in 2007 compare with 2006?
Significantly greater than 2006
34%
Somewhat greater than 2006
37%
About the same as 200620%
Somewhat less than 2006
9%
Significantly less than 2006
0%
Source: NBJ/Newport Summit 2007
What will drive the shift from a disease/treatment paradigm to a wellness/prevention system?
Rising corporate health care costs
54%
Media influence29%
2008 elections3%
Industry product development
5%
New scientific research
9%
Source: NBJ/Newport Summit 2007
To capture health care dollars, who will be the nutrition industry's greatest business partner?
Physicians (MDs)22%
Insurers32%
Alternative medicine
practitioners (DC, ND, LAc, etc.)
21%
Government6%
Distributors19%
Nutrition Business Journal, www.nutritionbusiness.com Expo East 2007
Thank you.Thank you.
September 26, 2007
Patrick Rea, Editorial Director & Publisher, NBJ