Download - Global Megatrends
The 2012 Update of Our Future WorldGlobal MegatrendsDr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist
Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy
The Megatrends
1. More From Less
It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.
- Neil Armstrong
Food
Water 1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient water
1.6 billion people in water-scarce river basins with inadequate capacity to develop
International Water Management Institute
Energy
Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011
Minerals
Source: Mudd GM, 2009. The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute.
2. Going, Going … Gone?
The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.
Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.
Going, Going… Gone?
Going, Going … Gone?
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
Going, Going … Gone?Red List
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 11
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
Red List Extinction Risk Index
1 = No concern
0 = Extinct
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010
3. The Silk Highway
The Silk HighwayIt’s Been So Good in Australia (comparatively)
Data source: World Bank
The Silk HighwayA Shifting World Economy
Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
The Silk HighwayMaking Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn
Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
4. Forever YoungAs you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.
- Audrey Hepburn
Forever YoungThe Ageing Population – Australia
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050
Forever YoungRetirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement
Source: Rice Warner
Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Forever YoungDiabetes and Overweight Projections
Data Source: World Masters Association
Forever YoungWanting to Stay Active and Engaged
Toronto, Canada
Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark
Brisbane, Australia
Portland, Oregon, USA
Melbourne, Australia
Edmonton, Canada
Sydney, Australia
5. Virtually Here
Virtually HereThe Growth of Online Retail
Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales
2012 20155.1 % 10%
National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.
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Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics
Virtually HereCatch me if you can – New models of retail
Image Source: Flickr.com
Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls
Virtually HereThe Work (Live?) Anywhere City
Currently 6% of Australian workers telecommute, 11% in the US and 10% in Europe (Access Economics).
The Australian Government aims to increase teleworking to 12% of the workforce (DCDBE).
In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.
Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend
Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM
Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend
In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month
6. Great ExpectationsNow, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations.
- Charles Dickens
Great ExpectationsMaslow’s Hierarchy
Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others
Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering
Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property
Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking
Self
Actualization -
Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem
solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts
Great ExpectationsDeclining Material Consumption
Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:1985 - Journal of Consumer Research
1992 - Journal of Consumer Research
1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior
1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal
2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology
2009 - Journal of Research in Personality
2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Great ExpectationsThe Jury is out - Experiences make us happier
Great ExpectationsUtility - A non-linear relationship
Beers (schooners)
Happiness (utility)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Not likely
More likely
Great ExpectationsIncreasing Importance of the “Whole Package”
Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand
Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension
Basic Expectations
24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)
33% of people in urban slums
15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry
United Nations, 2012
Thank youDr Stefan HajkowiczLeader – CSIRO Futures | Principal Scientistt +61 7 3833 5540e [email protected] www.csiro.au
CSIRO FUTURES