Global Strategy
to Improve
Agricultural Statistics
ISI Satellite Conference on Agricultural StatisticsFred Vogel August 13, 2009
Purpose of the Strategy
• Provide the vision for a statistical system to support decision making requirements in the 21st century
• Reflect data/information requirements – Policy –markets--investment
• Establish methodological framework for statistical capacity building
Purpose of the Presentation
• Provide an overview of the draft strategy– Key point is that the strategy is still under
development—main purpose of this meeting is for more input
• Set the stage for the discussions to follow
• Provide the framework to reach agreement on the basic principles
Overview of the presentation
• Why need a global strategy?– Basic and emerging data requirements– Conceptual framework for agriculture– Assessment of current agricultural
statistics• Steps to develop the strategy• Governance to meet strategic goals• Data quality, capacity building, and the
way forward
Crop productionForecasts
And estimates
LivestockInventories
And production
Prices Stocks
Aquaculture & Fishery
Production
ForestryInventory
& Production
Basic Data Requirements
Declining quantity andQuality of data,
Or simplyNot available
Food price Crises
GlobalEconomy
Energy CostsBio Fuels
Agriculture’sAffect on TheEnvironment
Land and
Wateruse
Global warmingClimate change
MillenniumDevelopment
Goals
Emerging Data Requirements
Happening atSame time,
Are inter-related,Much data not available
Conceptual Framework—Agricultural production
Natural Environment,
(climate, soil, water)
Output andUtilization
Food, feed, seed,Fiber, Etc.
Inputs to Production
(labor, capital, land,
Feed, seed, Etc.)
Socio-economic,Political
(Households, holdings’enterprises
InstitutionalFramework
(Markets, governmentGlobal economy)
Outcomes andResults
(National income,Food security)
The production process(growing crops, raising livestock,
Fish capture, timber removals)
Conceptual Framework
• Broaden scope to include forestry, fisheries
• Statistical units: Agriculture holding, household, and establishments
• Inclusion of rural and rural communities
• Scope includes production by households
• Land cover and use, Water use
Statistics—Current StatusDeclining response
--Percentage Response to FAO by region-- Region
Production Land use Machinery
Europe 66 71 64 Asia & Pacific 63 32 33 Americas 38 17 28
Africa 34 13 13 Near East 37 37
Statistics—current status
• Declining number of countries reporting basic production
• Loss of statistical capacity• Agriculture left out of National
Strategies for Development of Statistics• Duplicative efforts-conflicting numbers• Forestry, fisheries outside national and
agricultural systems
Statistics current status -The Dilemma – who does what
• National Statistics Offices
• Ministry – Departments of Agriculture
• Land Management/Natural Resources Agencies
• Marketing Boards/ Commissions
• Health, education agencies
• Development efforts by donors, WB
Each Collects
data for own use
with results that
do not always
agree – and limited
ability to
share data
Assessment of Agricultural Statistics
• The assessment remains to be completed
• The scope of capacity building will depend on the assessment of the statistical system to meet the requirements of the global strategy
Steps to determine the strategy
• Develop a menu of indicators– FAO evaluations– World Bank/FAO Source Book of Indicators– FAO World Programme for Ag Census
• Identify a minimum sub set of core data items that meets most urgent data needs
• Determine additional national data needed• Determine methodology, governance,
capacity building needed
Menu of Indicators
• Meets basic and emerging requirements– Data to estimate each indicator, sources,– Technical notes/ classifications, etc– More than any one country can do annually
• Shows where indicators require overlapping data (crop production/ land/water use/ input use, etc.)
• Determine a minimum subset of core all countries agree to provide annually
• Evaluate national needs to select additional items, determine frequency
Choice of Core
• About 15 major commodities account for over 95 percent of world production– Production, prices, trade,--balances– Value added, food security, productivity– Land, water use– Plus Forestry, aquaculture & fishery
• Major economic variables– Labor, household income, agricultural income
inputs, demographics, consumption
What add to national system?
• Provide ranking of items– Percent of land/water use– Percent value of production– Percent of HH/enterprises producing– Distributions by size– Scale—affect on environment, climate – Permanent or temporary
Table D. Frequency of coverage by geographic and structural detail. Level of geographic and structural detail Data Item National Major
Production Areas
Within country administrative areas
Size and/or type of household and or holding
Crop A Annual Annual Decennial Decennial livestock B Bi annual Bi annual Decennial Decennial
Lesson for international organizations requesting data.
Base requests on country capability to meet annual vs less frequent data requirements.
How meet core and national requirements?
• Points to need to integrate agriculture into national statistical system
• Agreed upon set of methodology• Governance to coordinate if have
decentralized system
Global Strategy to ImproveAgricultural Statistics
Data requirements andConceptual Framework
Menu of indicatorsMinimum set of“core-national”
Data items
Integrate Agriculture into
National statistics System
Methodology to Integrate
Agriculture
MasterSampleFrame
IntegratedData Base
Integrated SurveyFramework
Governance and Statistical Capacity Building
Census of Population
And Housing
AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing
Rural HH
Farm HH
AgCensus
Master Sampling Frame
Developing the Master Sampling Frame
Primary SamplingUnits
Villages/clusters
SampleGridspoints
Geo reference
NonHouseholdEnterprises
CensusEnumeration
areas
Integrated Survey Framework
Master Sampling Frame(Population/agricultural census data
Geo referenced to land use)
Annual Survey(s) core & NationalHousehold holdings & enterprises
Periodic surveys,(2-5 year cycles)
QuarterlySemi-
AnnualMonthly
Supply and utilization, income, &Environmental accounts,
Food Balances, etc.
CommunitySurveys
WindshieldSurveys
AdministrativeData
RemoteSensing
Agribusinesses
IntegratedData Bases
Integrated data bases
• Official statistics– Harmonized definitions and classifications– Each item appear one time; i.e. one official
number for everything from population, GDP, to maize forecast or production.
• Micro data—long term view– Connect across surveys over time– Increase analytical capabilities
The governance challenge
• How coordinate efforts of Ministries of Agriculture, National Statistical Offices, and others?
• Who does what—Master sample frame, Integrated Survey Frame work, Integrated data base?
• Starting point—form a Statistical Council• Build off strengths of each stakeholder
– Technical expertise– Subject matter knowledge
The governance challenge
• Role of national organizations– Add agriculture (forestry and fisheries) to
National Strategies for Development of Statistics– Focus fund raising on national statistical system
• Role of international organizations– Focus capacity building and support for statistics
on overall national statistical system– Centers of excellence-statistics, remote sensing?
• Role of Donors– Work with Statistical Council instead of separate
sectors
Challenges needing research
• Crop yield forecasts and estimates– Mult-cropping– Root crops– Use of remote sensing with ground truth
• Sampling and survey methodology for integrated survey framework
• Use of remote sensing to monitor land use-early warning capabilities
• Geo referencing survey data with satellite digitized frame
The global strategy and data quality for agriculture
• Data quality dimensions for agriculture– Accuracy—trade-off with timeliness– Timeliness-related to production cycle – Comparability across time and countries– Availability—Official data/ micro data
• Driven by needs of data users and customers
Capacity Building Challenge
• Building infrastructure—statisticians-data collectors, etc
• Education on statistical methodology, technology (GPS), remote sensing
• Date analysis—how to use the data to answer questions
• Build sustainable system
The way forward
• National input—Min of AG, National Statistical Offices & other stakeholders– Review and update National Strategies for
Development of Statistics• International input from stakeholders
– ISI Satellite meeting on agricultural statistics
• Develop final strategy for 2010 UNSC• Develop Implementation Plan
Thank you
Table C Factors to determine inclusion and the frequency of additional crop and livestock items in a country’s national statistical system.
Examples of products, inputs, or services
Utilizes % of total land/water
% of total value of production from agriculture
Year to year change in value
% of Households or enterprises
producing
% of production by commercial enterprises
Impact on environment and climate change
Scale 1 to 10
Permanent or temporary crop
Wheat Maize
Rice Cassava Nuts potatoes Olives Grapes Cattle Ducks Captured fish Cultured fish Timber
The purpose of this exercise is to provide measures of the relative importance of all components of a nation’s agriculture, land/water use, economy, environment, and impact on climate change. These measures can be input to the decision on the frequency for which data are provided; for example annually, periodic, or during the population and/or agricultural census.
Table D. Frequency of coverage by geographic and structural detail. Level of geographic and structural detail Data Item
National Major Production Areas
Within country administrative areas
Size and/or type of household and or holding
Crop A Annual Annual Decennial Decennial Crop B Bi annual Bi annual Decennial Decennial
Census of Population
And Housing
AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing
Rural HH
Farm HH
AgCensus
Master Sampling Frame
Developing the Master Sampling Frame
Primary SamplingUnits
Villages/clusters
SampleGridspoints
Geo reference
NonHouseholdEnterprises
CensusEnumeration
areas
Census of Population
And Housing
AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing
Rural HH
Farm HH
AgCensus
Master Sampling Frame
Developing the Master Sampling Frame
Primary SamplingUnits
Villages/clusters
SampleGridspoints
Geo reference
NonHouseholdEnterprises
CensusEnumeration
areas
Census of Population
And Housing
AreaFrame/ classifiedBy land use viaRemote sensing
Rural HH
Farm HH
AgCensus
Master Sampling Frame
Developing the Master Sampling Frame
Primary SamplingUnits
Villages/clusters
SampleGridspoints
Geo reference
NonHouseholdEnterprises
CensusEnumeration
areas
The Policy Challenge
• Agriculture primary source to feed and clothe a growing global population
• While doing so, must:– Raise millions out of poverty– Reduce agriculture’s affect on the
environment and global warming– Sustain water and land resources
• Determine information needed to make policy decisions, monitor their effect