Global Trendsin the
Livestock Sector
and
FAO Strategiesfor Livestock Development
Raffaele Mattioli, Funzionario in Sanità Animali, AGA
Shares of Population and GNP 1994
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Population(billions)
GNP ($1,000billions)
Industrialcountries
Developingcountries
World Population Growthand Distribution (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1960 1994 2015
Industrialcountries
Developingcountries
3 billions 5.6 billions 7.3 billions
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Cereals
Meat
Milk
Global Cereal, Meat and Milk Production 1980 - 1999 (1980 = 100%)
%
1980-------------------1990--------------------1999
Milk Demand in Developing Countries (million tons)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1961 1990 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961 1990 2020
Monogastric Meat
Ruminant Meat
Million t
Meat Demand in Developing Countries
Relationship Between Meat Consumption and Income
0
1
2
3
4
5
4 5 6 7 8 9 11income/person (log scale)
meat cons.(logscale)
10
China
India
Trend
Annual Growth Rates of Different Production Systems in Developing
Countries
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Asia SSA WANA CSA
grazing systems
mixed systems
industrial systems
in terms of meat production
SSA:Sub-Saharan Africa
WANA:West Asia & North Africa
CSA:Central & South America
Industrial systems
Mixed systems
Grazing systems
Total cereal use as feedRegion 1983 1993
(million MT)China 40 84
India 2 3
World 592 636
Latin America 40 55
Sub-Saharan 2 3Africa
2020
178
14
92
5
928
The AGA Division in the Context of FAO’s The AGA Division in the Context of FAO’s Strategic Framework 2000 - 2015Strategic Framework 2000 - 2015
Objective• Eradication of food insecurity and rural poverty
Strategies• Policy and regulatory frameworks for food, agriculture, fisheries
and forestry• Sustainable increases in the supply and availability of food and
other products from the crop, livestock, fisheries and forestry sectors
• Conservation, improvement and sustainable use of natural resources for food and agriculture
• Improving decision-making through provision of information and assessments and fostering of knowledge management for food and agriculture
AGA Livestock
ProgrammeProgramme Entities
• Contribution of livestock to poverty alleviation
• Global strategy for the management of farm animal genetic resources
• Technologies and systems for efficient and sustainable natural resources use in intensifying and expanding livestock production
AGA Livestock
ProgrammeProgramme Entities
• Environmental management of insect-borne diseases
• Emergency prevention system for transboundary animal diseases
• Veterinary public health management and food and feed safety
AGA Livestock
ProgrammeProgramme Entities
• Livestock information and knowledge system
• Livestock sector analysis and strategy development
Total livestock biomass density change (kg/km²): 1962-1994
>-500-500 - 00 - 2020 - 100100 - 250250 - 750750 - 15001500 - 30003000 - 6000>6000
Estimated disease occurrence score
Low disease occurrence
High disease occurrence
No data
Livestock and Public Health: FactsLivestock and Public Health: Facts
low intensity production: “classical zoonoses” (brucellosis, tuberculosis, trichinellosis)low intensity production: “classical zoonoses” (brucellosis, tuberculosis, trichinellosis)
zoonoses of “intensification”: caused by bacteria(coli, salmonella, campylobacter) because of animal movements and food processing; antibiotic resistance
emerging zoonoses (Nippah virus, BSE, avian flu); creation of “new” pathogens
Livestock and their products can be a major public health hazard
Intensity increases
EU-Geographical BSE Risk Analysis
Not done
Highly unlikely
Unlikely
Likely or lower level
Confirmed at higher
level
FAO Actions
• Assist countries in national risk assessment and capacity building for BSE surveillance and control
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001FMD - evolution of S-Asia serotype
FMD - geographical distribution
EU countries stopped vaccination in 1992
International collaboration in FMD control is crucial
Europe: European Commission for the Control of FMD (EUFMD)
Latin America: Hemispheric FMD Eradication Plan (Panaftosa)
Africa: Pan-African Programme for the Control of Epizotics (PACE)
S-E Asia: Regional FMD control programme (OIE)
FMD - assessment and action
Eight Selected Medium-Term Outputs of the AGA Animal Production and Health Programme
Global Livestock Information System and Knowledge Framework, including Global Animal Agriculture Atlas
Livestock Development Strategy Negotiation Framework
State-of-the-World Report on Animal Genetic Resources
Environmental Impact of Livestock Production Assessed
The World Without Rinderpest
Decision Support for R&D Allowing Smallholder Livestock Producers to Enter Competitive Markets
Integrated Trypanosomiasis Control in Priority Areas
Feed and Food Safety Codes and Best Practices in Animal Production
Thank you