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Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
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Scenarios in a Partnership
Future Perspectives at Grant Thornton
June 2014
Workshop: Developments in Scenario Planning
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Role of consultants
• Process design
• Introduction to/training in use of tools
• Technology transfer
• Specialist skills
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Strategy cycle
• The hard bit starts here!
• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change
• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May
• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions
Sense Making Setting Priorities
ImplementationStrategic Intelligence
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Board awareness
• The hard bit starts here!
• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change
• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May
• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions
Sense Making Setting Priorities
ImplementationStrategic Intelligence
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4
Board awareness
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Board engagement
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Strategic Intelligence
• Process leading to 14 key drivers• Deck of cards• Role of Three Horizons tool• Role of programme support• Interviews & role of Panels• Desk research• Use of intranet
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6
• Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change
Robust decisions in uncertain times
13/04/2023 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7
MANAGER VISIONARYENTREPRENEUR
Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDs
Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor
- iTunes
Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster -
Napster
Three Horizons: Mindsets
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Key Role of Panels
• Each led by “emerging” partner• 6 members including future leaders
– New graduate– High flyer
• Each Panel had to complete 6-10 interviews using 7 Questions– Insiders, outsiders/clients, futurists– Outsiders reacted very positively– Panel members pleasantly surprised!
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Sense making
• Scenario workshop– Participants – NLB + Panels + LOB leaders– Style – workshop – 7 groups– Input – 14 key drivers– Outputs
• Writing up the scenarios– Naming the scenarios
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• Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The scenario matrix
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Scenarios built from drivers in this box plus trends
For
ecas
tabl
e
Incorporate in scenarios and track for the business plan
Important
Less important
UncertainThese could be
really disruptive, to be watched
These trends form part of the back story of the scenarios
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Key Role of Panels
• All Panel members took part in Scenario Workshop
• Testing the scenarios– Panel members took scenarios out to test with
3 groups of public, e.g.• Groups of schoolchildren• Women’s Institute• NFU branch• Investment clubs• etc
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Setting priorities
• Using the scenario to wind-tunnel strategies– Participants in the workshop – NLB + LOB
leaders + Panel Chairs– Style – 4 groups– Inputs - scenarios– Outputs – portfolio of options
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• Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Process
Brainstorm
Calibrate
Options
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Options
Familiar
Unfamiliar
Uncertain
Current contribution Mature in 2-5 years Mature in 5+ years
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• The hard bit starts here!
Implementation
• Future Perspectives session at May Partners’ Conference– top 120 of 4,700 staff– Used scenarios in relation to client case
studies in workshop mode
• Use scenarios with clients– Building on strong interest from interviews– And from testing workshops
• Use to steer internal prioritieswww.samiconsulting.co.uk 15
Robust decisions in uncertain times
For more.....
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