Graduate Labour Market
Cher Li and Robert E. WrightDepartment of Economics
Higher education institutions “produce” goods and servicesExamples:
• Knowledge• Research• Patents and other intellectual property• Consulting services• Accommodation services• Conference services
• One main “output” is “skilled labour”• HEIs “produce” workers
One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flowsWhy?
• Not a great deal is know about this.
• Regional focus: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
• Interested in the export and import of graduates
• Information along these lines will be fed into the CGE analysis
Data Sources
• Need micro-data
• No single data sources available
• Surveys such as the BHPS, LFS, NES, GHS and FRS can be used.
• Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) data
HESA is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education.
Four main data banks
(1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (2) Students in HEIs (3) Staff in HEIs (4) Financial aspects of HEIs
12 waves available from 1994/95 to 2005/2006
2. Trends at United Kingdom Level
Figure 1Number of Students in Higher Education by Full- or Part-time Status
United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)
1,076,630
1,433,035
903,070
490,683
1,567,313
2,336,105
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
Full-time Part-time All
Figure 2 Ratio of Full-time to Part-time Students
United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)
1.6
2.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Full-
ime/
Part-
time
Figure 3Number of Under-gradaute and Post-graduate Students
United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/2006(Source: HESA)
1,231,988
1,790,735
335,325545,370
1,567,313
2,336,105
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
Under-graduate Post-graduate All
Figure 4Ratio of Under-graduate to Post-graduate Students
United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06 (Source: HESA)
3.3
3.7
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Rat
io o
f Und
er- t
o Po
st-g
radu
ate
stud
ents
Figure 5Number of Domestic and Foreign Students
United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)
1,403,600
2,006,035
163,713
330,060
1,567,313
2,336,095
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
Domestic Foreign All
Figure 6Percentage of Students Who are Foreign
United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)
10.4%
14.1%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Figure 7Number of Science and Non-science Students
United Kingdom, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)
569,504
974,405997809
1361720
1,567,313
2,336,125
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Num
ber
of people
Science Non-science All
Figure 8Ratio of Non-science to Science Students
United Kingdom 1994/95-2005/06 (Source: HESA)
1.75
1.40
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Ratio
Yea
r
3. Regional Trends
Number of Students(Source: HESA)
Region 1994/95 2005/06% Change
England 1,302,182 1,936,430 48.7Scotland 148,908 215,820 44.9Wales 80,125 129,225 61.3Northern Ireland 36,098 54,630 51.3
United Kingdom 1,567,313 2,336,105 49.1
Population Shares and Student Shares2005/06
(Source: HESA)
Share of students Share of UK Population
England 82.9 83.8
Scotland 9.2 8.4
Wales 5.5 4.9
NI 2.3 2.9
Regional Growth Rates (Percentages) of Various Student Groups, 1994/95-2005/06
Type of Student: England Scotland Wales NI UK
Full-time 34.8 25.5 21.4 38.3 33.1
Part-time 76.7 120.8 195.9 84.0 84.0
Under-graduates 44.7 40.7 58.2 58.3 45.4
Post-graduates 63.4 59.5 75.4 30.1 62.6
Foreign 107.8 91.3 72.7 22.4 101.6
Science 73.8 58.1 59.2 66.9 71.1
Non-science 35.0 35.1 62.5 39.2 36.5
Figure 9Students per 1,000 Population
Various Regions, 1994/95-2005/06(Source: HESA)
38.1
42.2
43.6
31.4
38.6
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Rate
per
1,0
00 p
opula
tion
England Scotland Wales NI UK
4. Employment
Place of Domicile/Place of Study2005/06
(Source: HESA)
Place of Study
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Domicile
England 929,055 7,245 20,245 8,305
Scotland 16,050 103,975 470 4,710
Wales 28,715 210 35,555 300
NI 310 60 10 31,770
Place of Domicile and Place of StudyScotland and Wales, 2005/06
(Source: HESA)
Place of Study
Scotland Wales
Domicile N % N %
England 16,050 13% 28,715 44%
Scotland 103,975 83% 210 0.3%
Wales 470 0.4% 35,555 55%
NI 4,710 4% 300 0.5%
All 125205 64780
Place of Study/Place of Employment Matrix2005-06
(Source: HESA)
Place of Employment
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Study
England 188,670 1,820 2,390 885
Scotland 2,350 19,090 55 275
Wales 4,315 65 7,830 30
NI 280 70 10 6,205
Percentage of Graduates Whose Place of Work is the Same as Their Place of Study
(Source: HESA)
England 97.4
Scotland 87.7
Wales 64.0
NI 94.5
Percentage of Graduates From Different Regions Working in England, 2005/06
(Source: HESA)
Scotland 10.8
Wales 35.3
NI 4.3
4. Future Directions
• Socio-economic characteristics of regional graduate flows
• “Returns” to higher education (earnings differences)• Changes in returns over time
• Over-education?
• Education policy and participation rates. Selection issues?