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WorldCornMarketSupply-DemandTrends
Daniel OBrien Extension Agricultural Economist
KState Research and Extension
May 27, 2010
Theworldcornmarkethasmanyparticipants,butasmallnumberoflargercornproducersandexportershavea
dominatinginfluenceonglobalcornsupplydemandbalances. MajorexportingcountriessuchastheUnited
States,Argentina,Brazil,andtheUkraine,andleadingimporterssuchasJapan,Mexico,SouthKorea,Eqypt,
Taiwan,ColumbiaandIranimpactworldcornmarketpricesthroughtheleadingrolestheyplayinworldcorn
trade. Othercountriesareheavilyinvolvedincornproductionanduse,buthavenotconsistentlybeenimportant
participantsinworldcorntrade,suchasChina,theEuropeanUnion,IndiaandSouthAfrica.
TheUnitedStatesandChinaarekeyparticipantsintheworldcornmarket,butfordifferentreasons. TheUnited
Statesistheworldslargestproducerofcorn,supplyinganaverageof40%oftheworldcorncropoverthelast3
marketingyears(MYs). TheU.S.alsoistheworldslargestcornexporter(57%3MYaverage),andthelargestuser
ofcornforallpurposesusing34%ofallcornusedonaveragesinceMY200809. TheU.S.hasaccountedfor
44%of
world
corn
for
food,
seed
and
industrial
use
and
28%
of
world
corn
livestock
feed
use
over
the
same
time
period. SinceMY200809,theU.S.hasheldonaverage30%ofworldcornendingstocks,2ndbehindChina. Over
thesametimeperiod,Chinahasbeenthe2ndlargestproducerofcorn(20%ofworldcornproduction),the2nd
largestuserofcornforallpurposes(19%),the2ndlargestuserofcornforfood,seedandindustrialuses(15%),
andthe2ndlargestuserofcornforlivestockfeeding(22%). Chinahasranked1stgloballyintermscornending
stocks,holdinganaverageof37%ofworldcornendingstockssinceMY200809morethanthe30%heldbythe
UnitedStates.
ThisarticleexaminesworldcornsupplydemandtrendsforMY198788throughMY201011onacountryby
countrybasis. AllworldcornsupplydemandestimateswereobtainedviacustomqueriesonProduction,Supply
andDemandOnline(PS&DOnline)throughtheUSDAForeignAgriculturalService
(http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx). ProjectionsfromtheMay11,2010WorldAgricultural
SupplyDemand
Estimates
(WASDE)
from
the
USDA
World
Agricultural
Outlook
Board
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194)areincludedinthis
report. ProjectedcornsupplydemandbalancesforMY2010/11areexaminedrelativetohistoricalaveragelevels
andtrendsthroughtime. ThevariabilityoftheseWorldcornsupplydemandmeasuresinrecenthistoryisalso
examined,providingsomemeasureoftheprimarysourcesofriskanduncertaintyinworldcornmarketsinrecent
history.
WorldCornHarvestedArea
TotalworldcornharvestedacreageinMY201011isestimatedtobe159,320,000hectares(393,520,000
acres)(Chart1). Worldcornharvestedacreagehasincreasedfromtherangeof126,108,000126,860,000inMY
198788
and
MY
1988
89
to
the
range
of
156,311,000
160,534,000
since
MY
2007
08,
with
average
annual
trend
increasesof1,353,000hectares(3,343,263acresperyear).
DuringtheMY198788toMY201011period,thetop10countriesintermsofcornproducingareaaccountedfor
anaverageof72%ofworldcornharvestedacreage. SinceMY200809the5largestnationsintermsofaverage
worldcornharvestedacreagearetheUnitedStates(32.4millionhectaresormh),China(30.4mh),Brazil(13.4
mh),theEuropeanUnion(8.5mh)andIndia(8.1mh)(Chart2). Thesecornareastatisticsindicatetheleading
positionsoftheUnitedStatesandChinainworldcornproduction,aswellastheimportanceofBrazilian
productivelandcapacityinregardstocornandothercompetitivecrops.
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SinceMY
2001
02,
Tanzania,
Nigeria
and
South
Africa
have
the
largest
historic
variability
in
corn
area
harvested
relativetotheiraverageharvestedareaamongthetop10nationsintermsofcornarea. Thismeasureofrelative
variabilitycanbeanalyzedintermsofthecoefficientofvariationorcvofharvestedcornacreage.(see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_variation). Acoefficientofvariationof1.00indicatesthatameasure
ofthevariabilityofavariable(definedasthestandarddeviation)isequaltotheaveragevalueofthevariable.
Whenthecvvalueislessthan1,itmeansthatthestandarddeviationislessthantheaveragevalueofthe
variable. Lowervaluesofcvareindicativeoflessrelativevariabilityforaparticularvariable(orinthiscase,a
measureofworldcornsupplydemand)thandohighercvvalues.Thecvvaluesforharvestedcornacreagein
Tanzania,NigeriaandSouthAfricaoverthelastdecaderangefrom0.143and0.192.
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000
105,000
120,000
135,000
150,000
165,000
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
1,0
00Hectare
s
Marketing
Year
(September
1
August
31)
Chart1.WorldCornHarvestedAcreage198788to200910MarketingYears(1,000Hectares)
RestofWorld
SouthAfrica
Tanzania
Indonesia
Nigeria
Mexico
India
EU27
Brazil
China
UnitedStates
UnitedStates
32,364
21%
China
30,355
19%
Brazil
13,383
9%
EU27
8,509
5%
India
8,133
5%
Mexico
6,916
4%
Nigeria
4,833
3%
Indonesia
3,167
2%
Tanzania
3,100
2%
SouthAfrica
3,049
2%
RestofWorld
44,131
28%
Chart2.WorldCornHarvestedAcreage:3YearAverageAverageof200809to201011MarketingYears(1,000Hectares)
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TheUnitedStates(cv=0.08)hashadlowerrelativevariationinharvestedcornareaofcornsinceMY200102
thanthe3countriesmentionedaboveaswellasChina(cv=0.10). TheU.S.hasequalrelativevariabilityin
harvestedcornacreagetoIndia,butgreatervariabilitythanIndonesia(cv=0.04),theEuropeanUnion(cv=0.05)
andMexico(cv=0.07). Incomparison,aggregateworldcornharvestedacreagehasarelativelylowlevelof
relativevariability(cv=0.06)sinceMY200102. Worldcornharvestedareahasbeengrowingatafairly
consistentratesinceMY198788.
Theseresultsalsoshowthatinthe3mostrecentcornmarketingyear,theUnitedStatesandChinahave
combinedfor
40%
of
World
harvested
corn
area.
Together
with
Brazil,
the
European
Union
and
India,
the
top
5
countriesintermsofharvestedcornacreagehaveaccountedfor59%ofglobalharvestedcornarea. Theworld
cornmarketismarginallymoreconcentratedintermsofharvestedacreagethanistheworldwheatmarket,
wherethetop5countriesaccountfor56%ofworldwheatharvestedacreage.
WorldCornYields
AverageWorldcornyieldsinthe201011marketingyearareestimatedtobe5.24metrictonsperhectare
(mt/ha)(equivalentto83.6bushelsperacre). Worldcornyieldshaveincreasedfrom3.18mt/ha(50.7bu/ac)in
MY198889toover5.0mt/hasinceMY200809,withaverageannualtrendincreasesof0.07mt/ha(1.12bu/ac)
forsinceMY198788.
Amongthe10largestcornproducingcountriesintheWorld,thehighestaveragecornyieldsoverthemostrecent
10year
period
(MY
2001
02
to
MY
2010
11)
were
produced
in
the
United
States
(9.41
mt/ha
or
150.1
bu/ac),
with
yieldstrendingupwardsat0.19mt/ha(3.0bu/ac)peryear(Chart3).ThesecondhighestyieldssinceMY200102
wereproducedinArgentinaat6.96mt/haor111.0bu/ac,withyieldstrendingupwardsat0.18mt/ha(2.9bu/ac)
annually. Duringthesameperiod,cornyieldsintheEuropeanUnionaveraged6.38mt/ha(101.7bu/ac),
increasingatarateof0.08mt/ha(1.3bu/ac)annually.
BelarusandSaudiArabiahavethelargesthistoricrelativevariabilityincornyieldssince200102,withcv
measuresof0.44and0.26,respectively. TheUnitedStates(cv=0.19)hashadnearlyequalyieldvariabilitywith
Vietnam,ArgentinaandUzbekistan,butgreaterrelativeyieldvariabilitythanChina(cv=0.07),andtheEuropean
Union(cv=0.08). Incomparison,aggregateworldcornyieldssincethe200102marketingyearhavearelatively
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
MetricTonsperHectare
MarketingYear
(September
1to
August
31)
Chart3.WorldCornYields198788to201011MarketingYears(MetricTonsperHectare)
UnitedStates
Argentina
EU27
Belarus
Kyrgyzstan
SaudiArabia
China
Australia
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lowlevelofrelativevariability(cv=0.07). Theseworldversusnationcvmeasuresindicatethatannualyield
increasesanddeclinesinindividualcountriesmaytendtooffsetthemselvesovertime.
WorldCornProduction
Worldcornproductioninthe201011marketingyearisprojectedtobe835,033,000metrictons(32,864,513,000
bushels). Notethat1metrictonequals2,204poundsor39.36bushelsofcorn. Worldcornproductionhas
increasedfrom400,413,000mt(15,759,112,000bu.)inMY198889totheprojectedlevelinMY201011
indicatedabove,
with
average
annual
trend
increases
of
16,002,000
mt
(993,736,000
bu.)
since
MY
1987
88.
Worldcornproductionisprojectedtohavegrown109%sinceMY198889.
The10largestcountriesproducedanaverageof85.4%ofworldcornovertheMY198788toMY201011period
(Chart4). SinceMY200809,the7largestcountriesintermsofaverageworldcornproductionweretheUnited
States(326.6mmt,40%ofworldcornproduction),China(162.3mmt,20%ofworldcornproduction),the
EuropeanUnion(58.4mmt),Brazil(51.8mmt),Mexico(23.2mmt),IndiaandArgentina(bothwith19.0mmt)
(Chart5). TheselevelsofcornproductionsupporttheideathatChinaandparticularlytheUnitedStatesplaykey
leadershiprolesindeterminationofworldcornproductionandsupplies.
TheUkraineandSouthAfricahavethelargesthistoricrelativevariabilityincornproductionsinceMY200102,
withcvmeasuresof0.36and0.23,respectively. TheUnitedStates(cv=0.14)hashadlessproductionvariability
thanIndia,
Argentina
and
Brazil
(cv
=0.17
0.18);
equal
production
variability
with
China;
and
more
production
variabilitythanMexico,Canada,andtheEuropeanUnion(cv=0.08 0.11). Incomparison,aggregateWorldcorn
productionhasacvvalueof=0.12sincethe200102marketingyear. BecausetheU.S.andChinatogether
accountfor60%ofworldcornproductionisreasonabletohaveworldhistoriccornproductionvariability(cv=
0.12)approximatelyequaltothatofthesetwoleadcornproducingcountries.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
1,0
00MetricTons
MarketingYear
(September
1August
31)
Chart4.WorldCornProduction198788to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
RestofWorld
Canada
UkraineSouthAfrica
India
Argentina
Mexico
Brazil
EU27
China
UnitedStates
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WorldCorn
Exports
WorldcornexportsinMY201011areprojectedtobe88,527,000mt. Worldcornexportshaveincreasedfrom
59,128,000mtinMY198788toashighas98,614,000mtinMY200607,withaverageannualtrendincreasesof
1,225,000mtsinceMY198788.
The10largestnationsshippedanaverageof95.6%ofWorldcornexportsovertheMY198788toMY201011
period(Chart6). SinceMY200809,the5largestcountriesintermsofaverageworldcornexportswerethe
UnitedStates(49.2mmtor57%ofallWorldcornexports),Argentina(11.8mmt,14%oftotal),Brazil(7.2mmt,
8%oftotal),theUkraine(5.2mmt)andSouthAfrica(2.3mmt)(Chart7). TheUnitedStateshasadominant
marketleadershippositioninworldcornexports,withthenextlargestexportershippingonly25%oftheamount
thattheU.S.does.
Amongthe
worlds
major
exporters
of
corn,
Serbia
and
India
have
the
largest
historic
relative
variability
in
corn
exportssince200102,withcvmeasuresof1.33and1.01,respectively. Othercountrieswithrelativelyhigh
relativevariabilityinannualcornexportsduringthelastdecadeincludetheUkraine(cv=0.74),Paraguay(cv=
0.61),Thailand(cv=0.59),SouthAfrica(cv=0.54),Brazil(cv=0.53),andtheEuropeanUnion(cv=0.48).The
UnitedStates(cv=0.12)hasthelowestcornexportvariabilityamongthetopcornexportersinthelastdecade,
withArgentina(cv=0.17)alsobeingrelativelylowcomparedtootherWorldcornexporters. Incomparison,
aggregateWorldcornexportshaveacvvalueof=0.10sincethe200102marketingyear,indicatingthatthelarge
marketshareoftheU.S.togetherwithArgentina,combinedwiththeircomparativelylowannualexportvariability
andsomewhatoffsettingsupplyavailabilityamongothercornexportingcountriesallworkstogethertoreduce
overallannualvariabilityinworldcornexports.
UnitedStates
326,589
40%
China
162,300
20%EU27
58,363
7%
Brazil
51,833
7%
Mexico
23,342
3%
Argentina
19,000
2%
India
19,010
2%
SouthAfrica
13,022
2%
Ukraine
11,133
1%
Canada
10,217
1%
RestofWorld
119,062
15%
Chart5.WorldCornProduction:3YearAverageAverage200809to201011MarketingYears(1,000metrictons)
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WorldCornImports
Worldcornimportsinthe201011marketingyearareestimatedtobe86,120,000metrictons. Worldcorn
importshaveincreasedfrom57,323,000mtinMY198788toashighas98,489,000mtinMY200607,with
averageannualtrendincreasesof1,200,000mtsinceMY198788.
The10largestcornimportingcountriessecuredanaverageof67.3%ofworldcornimportssinceMY198788
(Chart8). SinceMY200809,the7largestcountriesintermsofaverageworldcornimportswereJapan(16.4
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
1,0
00MetricT
ons
MarketingYear(September1August31)
Chart6.WorldCornExports198788to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
RestofWorld
Thailand
Paraguay
EU27
India
Serbia
SouthAfrica
Ukraine
Brazil
Argentina
UnitedStates
UnitedStates
49,173
57%
Argentina
11,773
14%
Brazil
7,212
8%
Ukraine
5,166
6%
SouthAfrica
2,3333%
Serbia
1,656
2%
India
1,869
2%
EU27
1,398
2%
Paraguay
1,303
1%
Thailand
849
1%
RestofWorld
3,769
4%
Chart7.WorldCornExports:3YearAverageAverageof200809to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
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mmt,20%oftotalcornimports),Mexico(8.3mmt,10%oftotal),SouthKorea(7.9mmt,9%oftotal),Egypt(5.1
mmt),Taiwan(4.6mmt),Columbia(3.3mmt)andIran(3.3mmt)(Chart9).
AmongtheWorldsmajorimportersofcorn,theEuropeanUnionhasthelargesthistoricrelativevariabilityincorn
importssince200102,withcv=0.83. Othercountrieswithhigherrelativevariabilityinannualcornimportssince
MY200102includeCanada(cv=0.32),Iran(cv=0.28),Mexico(cv=0.26),andColumbia(cv=0.23). Egypt(cv=
0.11)andMayalsia(cv=0.10)havesomewhatlowerannualimportvariability. TheAsiancountriesofSouthKorea
(cv=0.07),Taiwan(cv=0.04)andJapan(cv=0.01)havetheleastamountofrelativeannualvariabilityinworld
cornimports.
On
an
aggregate
basis,
world
corn
imports
have
acv
value
of
=0.10
since
the
2001
02
marketing
year. ExtremelylowannualcornimportvariabilityforSouthKorea,TaiwanandJapanisoffsettosomedegreeby
thegreaterannualimportvariabilityintheEuropeanUnion,Canada,Iran,Mexico,Columbiaandelsewhere.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
1,0
00MetricTons
MarketingYears(September1August31)
Chart8.WorldCornImports198788to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
RestofWorld
Canada
EU27
MalaysiaIran
Colombia
Taiwan
Egypt
Korea,South
Mexico
Japan
Japan
16,378
20%
Mexico
8,28810%
Korea,South
7,863
9%Egypt
5,144
6%
Taiwan
4,611
5%
Colombia
3,256
4%
Iran
3,333
4%
Malaysia
2,582
3%
EU27
2,581
3%
Canada
2,114
3%
RestofWorld
27,254
33%
Chart9.WorldCornImports:3YearAverageAverageof200809to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
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WorldCornFood,SeedandIndustrialUse
Worldcornfood,seedandindustrial(FSI)use(includingethanolproduction)inthe201011marketingyearis
estimatedtobe332,766,000metrictons. WorldcornFSIusehasincreasedfrom139,837,000mtinMY198788
toaprojectedhighinMY201011listedabove,withaverageannualtrendincreasesof8,039,000mtsinceMY
198788. WorldcornFSIisprojectedtohavegrown138%sinceMY198788.
The10largestcountriesaccountedforanaverageof80.8%ofWorldcornFSIuseovertheMY198788toMY
201011period(Chart10). SinceMY200809,the2largestcountriesintermsofaverageworldcornFSIusewere
theUnitedStates(141.2mmt,44%ofallworldcornFSIuse)andChina(47.0mmt,15%oftotal). Mexico(16.1
mmt),theEuropeanUnion(14.8mmt),andIndia(9.3mmt)followedtheU.S.andChina(Chart11). Thesefigures
indicatethestrongimpactthatgrowthinfeedgrainbasedethanolproductionhashadondomesticcornsupply
demandbalancesintheU.S.inrecentyears.
Amongthetop10countriesusingcornforFSIproduction,theUnitedStateshashadthelargestannualvariability
inFSIuse(cv=0.39),followedbyChina(cv=0.20),Nigeria(cv=0.16),SouthAfrica(cv=0.14),andIndia(cv=
0.13). OthercountrieshavedisplayedlessvariabilityinannualFSIuseincludingIndonesia(cv=0.09),Brazil(cv=
0.085),theEuropeanUnion(cv=0.078),Japan(cv=0.04)andMexico(cv=0.024). VariabilityinFSIuseinthe
UnitedStates
since
MY
2001
02
is
attributable
to
the
rapid
expansion
in
U.S.
grain
based
ethanol
production
in
accordancewithU.S.environmentalandenergypolicies. Takentogether,worldcornFSIusehasacvvalueof
0.22sinceMY200102,indicatingthatthelargestsourceofvariabilityinFSIuseintheWorldcornmarket
originatesintheUnitedStates.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
1,0
00MetricTons
Marketing
Years
(September
1
August
31)
Chart10.WorldCornFSIUse200809through201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
RestofWorld
Indonesia
Japan
SouthAfrica
Brazil
Nigeria
India
EU27
Mexico
China
UnitedStates
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WorldCornFeed&ResidualUse
WorldcornfeedandresidualuseinMY201011isestimatedtobe492,698,000metrictons. Worldcornfeedand
residualusehasincreasedfrom306,797,000mtinMY198889toahigh496,838,000mtinMY200708,with
averageannualtrendincreasesof7,341,000mtsinceMY198788. Worldcornfeedandresidualuseisprojected
tohavegrown56%sinceMY198788.
The10largestcountriesaccountedforanaverageof79.8%ofworldcornfeedandresidualuseovertheMY1987
88toMY201011period(Chart12). SinceMY200809,the2largestcountriesintermsofaverageWorldcorn
feedandresidualuseweretheUnitedStates(134.9mmt,28%ofallworldcornfeedandresidualuse)andChina
(108.3mmt,
22%
of
total).
The
European
Union
(44.8
mmt),
Brazil
(39.8
mmt),
Mexico
(15.6
mmt)
and
Japan
(11.8mmt)followedtheU.S.andChinainfeedandresidualuse.(Chart13). Thisinformationreinforcesthe
leadershiprolesoftheU.S.andChinainbothworldfeedandresidualuseandinlivestockfeedingindustries.
Amongthetop10countries,Mexicohashadthelargestannualvariabilityincornfeedandresidualuse(cv=
0.21),followedbyIndia,Brazil,andCanada(cvrangeof0.127to0.12). Othercountrieshavedisplayedless
variabilityinannualfeedandresidualuseincludingEgypt(cv=0.08),theEuropeanUnion(cv=0.062),the
UnitedStates(cv=0.057),China(cv=0.055),SouthKorea(cv=0.04)andJapan(cv=0.02).Takentogether,world
cornfeedandresidualusehasacvvalueof0.05sincethe200102marketingyear,indicatingthatlivestock
feedinghasbeenarelativelystableuseforworldcorninthelastdecade.Theavailabilityoffeedgrainsubstitutes
suchasgrainsorghum,barley,oatsordistillersgrainsfromethanolproductionmayalsoimpactthedegreeto
whichcornversuscompetitivealternativesareusedinlivestockfeedrations.
United
States141,173
44%
China
47,000
15%Mexico
16,067
5%
EU27
14,750
5%
India
9,300
3%
Nigeria
7,167
2%
Brazil
7,000
2%
SouthAfrica
5,867
2%
Japan
4,600
2%Indonesia
4,533
1%RestofWorld
60,97119%
Chart11.WorldCornFSIUse:3YearAverageAverageof200809to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
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WorldTotalDomesticUseofCorn
Totaldomestic
use
of
World
corn
in
the
2010
11
marketing
year
is
projected
to
be
825,464,000
metric
tons.
Worldcorntotaldomesticusehasincreasedfrom450,832,000mtinMY198889toaprojectedhighinMY2010
11asindicatedabove,withaverageannualtrendincreasesof15,380,000mtsinceMY198788. Worldcorntotal
useisprojectedtohavegrown81%sinceMY198788.
The10largestcountriesaccountedforanaverageof79.3%ofworldtotalcorndomesticuseovertheMY198788
toMY201011period(Chart14). SinceMY200102,the2largestcountriesintermsofaveragetotaluseofWorld
cornweretheUnitedStates(276.1mmt,34%ofallworldcornusage)andChina(155.3mmt,19%oftotal). The
EuropeanUnion(59.6mmt,7%oftotal),Brazil(46.8mmt),Mexico(31.7mmt),India(17.0mmt)andJapan(16.4
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
1,0
00MetricTons
MarketingYears(September1August31)
Chart12.WorldCornFeed&ResidualUse200809through201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
RestofWorld
Korea,South
Canada
India
Egypt
Japan
Mexico
Brazil
EU27
China
UnitedStates
UnitedStates
134,882
28%
China
108,333
22%EU2744,833
9%
Brazil
39,767
8%
Mexico
15,600
3%
Japan
11,833
3%
Egypt
9,433
2%
India
7,667
2%
Canada
7,578
2%
Korea,South
6,423
1% RestofWorld
98,369
20%
Chart13.WorldCornFeed&ResidualUse:3YearAverageAverageof200809to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
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Page|11
mmt)followedtheU.S.andChinaintotaluseofcorn(Chart15). Thestrongmarketleadershippositionsofthe
U.S.andChinainworldcornmarketsareshownintheircombined53%oftotalcornusesinceMY200809.
Amongthetop10cornusingnations,theUnitedStateshashadthelargestannualvariabilityintotalcornuse(cv
=0.13),followedbyIndia(cv=0.12),Brazil(cv=0.115),SouthAfrica(cv=0.112),andMexico(cv=0.10). Interms
ofannualvariabilityintotaluse,thesecountriesarefollowedbyChina(cv=0.093),Egypt(cv=0.086),Canada(cv
=0.082),theEuropeanUnion(cv=0.046),Japan(cv=0.017). Takentogether,worldtotaldomesticuseofcorn
hasacvvalueof0.10sinceMY200102,indicatingrelativelystabletotaldomesticconsumptionofcorninthe
majorcorn
using
countries
of
the
world.
Slightly
higher
annual
variability
in
total
corn
use
in
the
U.S.
can
be
attributedtotherapidexpansionofethanolbasedcornuseinconjunctionwithU.S.environmentalandenergy
policies.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1987
88
1988
89
1989
90
1990
91
1991
92
1992
93
1993
94
1994
95
1995
96
1996
97
1997
98
1998
99
1999
00
2000
01
2001
02
2002
03
2003
04
2004
05
2005
06
2006
07
2007
08
2008
09
2009
10
2010
11
1,0
00MetricTons
MarketingYear(September1August31)
Chart14.WorldCornTotalUse200809through201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
RestofWorld
SouthAfrica
Canada
Egypt
Japan
India
Mexico
Brazil
EU27
China
UnitedStates
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WorldCornEndingStocks
TotalworldcornendingstocksinMY201011areprojectedtobe154,210,000metrictons. Worldcornending
stockstototaluseisprojectedtobe18.7%inMY201011. SinceMY198788,worldcornendingstockshave
rangedfromalowof110,069,000mtinMY200607toahighof193,883,000mtinMY199900,withaverage
annualtrenddecreasesof1,811,000mtsinceMY198788. AlsosinceMY198788,worldcornendingstocksto
totalusehasrangedfromalowof15.2%inMY200607toahighof43.3%inMY198788,withaverageannual
trenddecreasesinworldcornendingstockstouseof1.0%sinceMY198788. Worldcornendingstocksare
projected
to
have
declined
22%
since
MY
1987
88.
The10largestcountriesaccountedforanaverageof86.3%oftotalworldcornendingstocksovertheMY198788
toMY201011period(Chart16). SinceMY200102,the2largestcountriesintermsofaveragetotalending
stocksofworldcornwereChina(55.6mmt,37%ofallworldcornendingstocks)andtheUnitedStates(44.3mmt,
30%oftotal). Brazil(11.0mmt,7%oftotal),theEuropeanUnion(4.8mmt,3%oftotal),SouthAfrica(3.7mmt)
andMexico(3.0mmt)followedChinaandtheUnitedStatesintermsofamountofcornremaininginending
stocksattheendofeachmarketingyear(Chart17). Clearly,thereisatendencyforworldendingstocksofcornto
beownedbyarelativelysmallnumbersofcountries,suchasChina,theU.S.,BrazilandtheEuropeanUnion.
However,althoughChinaisthelargestholderofworldcornstocks,thatcountrytendstouseitsstockstosupport
domesticusesratherthantomakethemavailabletotheworldcorntrademarket. Thesuppliesofworldcorn
endingstocksthatarelikelytobemadeavailableforworldtradeareevensmallerthattheworldendingstocks
total
(by
at
least
37%,
the
3
year
average
proportion
of
world
corn
ending
stocks
held
by
China).
Amongthetop10Worldcountriesthatholdcornendingstocks,Serbia(cv =1.16),Argentina(cv=0.64),and
Brazil(cv=0.57)havethelargestannualvariabilityincornendingstockslevels,followedbytheEuropeanUnion
(cv=0.38),China(cv=0.31),SouthAfrica(cv=0.27),Canada(cv=0.24),theUnitedStates(cv=0.23),andMexico
(cv=0.23). SouthKoreahasthelowestannualvariabilityincornendingstocksamongthisgroupof(cv=0.18).
Takentogether,totalworldcornendingstockshasacvvalueof0.13sinceMY200102. Thisindicatesthatthe
aggregateannualamountofworldcornendingstocksislessvariableinrelativetermsthanarethelevelsofcorn
endingstocksamongtheworldstop10cornendingstocksholdingnations. Restated,changesinnationsincorn
UnitedStates
276,056
34%
China
155,333
19%
EU27
59,583
7%
Brazil
46,767
6%
Mexico
31,667
4%
India
16,967
2%
Japan
16,433
2%
Egypt11,867
2%
Canada
11,888
2%
SouthAfrica
10,667
1%Other
165,919
21%
Chart15.WorldCornTotalUse:3YearAverageAverageof200809to201011MarketingYears(1,000MetricTons)
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hadanimpactontheuseofcorninworldmarkets,especiallyintermsoffood,seedandindustrialuse.Potential
expansionofethanolproductionbeyondcurrentlevelsholdscouldmarkedlyaffectworldexportmarkets,given
thattheUnitedStatesisthepredominantsupplieroftheworldscornexports.
Chinasroleinworldcornmarketsinmostyearsisthatofmajor,quasiselfsufficientsuppliertoitsowndomestic
cornuseneeds. However,withastrongdomesticfeedgraindemandbase,productionshortfallsinChinainany
particularyearholdpotentialtomotivatetheChinesetoobtainadditionalneededcornsuppliesviaimport
channels. CurrentChinesebuyingactivityinworldcornexportmarketsisindicativeofthisverysituation
occurringin
MY
2010
11.
Thelongtermtrendtowardlower,tighterworldcornendingstocksandworldcornendingstockstousehas
abatedsomewhatsinceMY200607. Evenwithcurrentreasonableexpectationsforincreasesinworldcornyields
andworldcornproductioninthefuture,anticipatedgrowthintheglobalusageofcornislikelytoextendthelong
termtrendtowardslowerworldcornstocks(ifnotaccelerateit). Inaddition,thefullimpactsofincreasedcorn
usagefromU.S.ethanolproductionunderincreasedethanolblendedfuelinclusionratepoliciesneedstobe
closelyexamined. Allelsebeingequal,increaseduseofcornforethanolintheU.S.wouldlikelycauseeven
sharperpricecompetitioninthefuturebetweenU.S.livestockfeedersandforeignexportbuyerstoobtain
remainingU.S.cornsupplies.Increasedavailabilityofdistillersgrainsfromethanolproductionprocesseswould
helptoabatethistightnessinsuppliesandincreasedpricecompetitiontosomedegree. However,thequestion
ofhowpotentiallylargeincreasesinuseofU.S.cornfordomesticethanolproductionwouldaffectworldcornand
coarsegrain
export
markets
and
the
viability
of
domestic
and
foreign
livestock
enterprises
needs
to
be
closely
examined.
Itispossibletoconceiveofascenariointhefuturewherecornpricesincreasemarkedlyinanefforttoration
limitedcornsuppliestomeetcontinuedgrowthindemandforcornusebothdomesticallyandabroad. Such
potentiallydisproportionalincreasesincornpricesandcropenterpriseincomeprospectsinthefuturecould
causeacceleratedacreageshiftstowardcornproduction(intheUnitedStatesandelsewhere)andawayfrom
otherlessprofitablecropenterprises. Inthissituation,competitivepressureswouldlikelydriveeachcountry
and/orregionswithineachcountrytoproducecropsthattheyhavethegreatestphysicalproductivityand
economicreturnscompetitiveadvantagesin. Inthelongterm,competitivepressuressuchasthisintheUnited
Statesandelsewherewouldlikelyleadtoincreasedcornproductionattheexpenseofothercropenterprises.
Acaveat
to
this
line
of
thought
is
that
it
is
possible
that
per
acre
productivity
of
corn
and
other
crops
may
increase
tosuchadegreethattheseanticipatedcompetitivepressuresonavailableU.S.cornsuppliesmaybelessen(due
togreateravailabilityofcornsuppliesrelativetodemand). Thatsaid,iffuturecornyieldincreasesarelargerona
relativebasisthatforothercompetitivecrops,theincentivetoshiftacreagetowardcornproductionintheU.S.
wouldbeunchanged(ifnotevengreater).