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Greater ManchesterQuarterly Economic SurveyQ4 2013
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WELCOMEPhil Cusack President
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QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEYDr John Ashcroft Chief Economist
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COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
GDP % q/q QES Composite Leading Indicator
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EMPLOYMENT TRACKER
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 -10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
QES Employment Tracker GM JSA (SA) q/q
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INFLATION TRACKER
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
QES Inflation Tracker Inflation (CPI)
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UK SALES
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Manufacturing Services
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UK SALES (PRODUCTION)
Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Manufacturing Construction Broad measure
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UK ORDERS
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Manufacturing Services
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EXPORT SALES
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Manufacturing Services
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EXPORT ORDERS
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Manufacturing Services
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EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Employment (this quarter) Employment (forecast)
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EMPLOYMENT IN SERVICES
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Employment (this quarter) Employment (forecast)
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MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Turnover Profitability
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SERVICES CONFIDENCE
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Turnover Profitability
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INVESTMENT IN PLANT & MACHINERY
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Manufacturing Services
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INTENTIONS TO INCREASE PRICES
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Manufacturing Services
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COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
GDP % q/q QES Composite Leading Indicator
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International Perspectives 2014
January 2014
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GDP % 2013 2014
Greece -3.7 -0.4
GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4
Unemployment latest (Nov) 26.9%
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4
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GDP % 2013 2014
Italy -1.8 0.4
GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4
Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.7%
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4
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GDP % 2013 2014
Portugal -1.80.4
Spain -0.3 0.6
GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4
Unemployment latest (Nov)Spain 26.7% Portugal 15.5%
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4
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GDP % 2013 2014
Ireland -0.1 1.6
GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6
Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.3%
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6
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GDP % 2013 2014
France 0.2 0.8
GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8
Unemployment latest (Nov) 10.8%
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8 GDP % 2013 2014
Germany 0.5 1.8 Unemployment latest (Nov) 5.2%
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8
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GDP % 2013 2014
Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland -1.1 0.4
GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8Belgium 0.1 0.9Holland -1.1 0.4
Unemployment latest (Nov)Belgium 8.4%Holland 6.9%
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8Belgium 0.1 0.9Holland -1.1 0.4
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GDP 20132014Greece -3.7 -0.4Italy -1.8 0.4Spain -0.3 0.4Portugal -1.8 0.4Ireland -0.1 1.6France 0.2 0.8Germany 0.5 1.8Belgium 0.1 0.9Holland -1.1 0.4
U rate latest (Nov) Denmark 6.9% Sweden 8.0% Norway 3.3% Finland 8.4% GDP % 2013 2014
Denmark 0.41.4
Sweden 0.9 2.5 Norway 1.9 2.2 Finland -0.9 1.0
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GDP 2013 2014Euro Zone -0.4 1.0EU 0.0 1.3Europe W 0.0 1.3
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GDP 20132014Euro Zone -0.4 1.0EU 0.0 1.3Europe W 0.0 1.3
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GDP 20132014Euro Zone -0.4 1.0EU 0.0 1.3Europe W 0.0 1.3
Unemployment LatestEuro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%
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GDP 20132014Euro Zone -0.4 1.0EU 0.0 1.3Europe W 0.0 1.3
Unemployment LatestEuro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%
Youth unemployment
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GDP 20132014Euro Zone -0.4 1.0EU 0.0 1.3Europe W 0.0 1.3
Unemployment LatestEuro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%
Youth unemploment
EU Zone 24.2%Spain 57.7%Portugal 54.8%Croatia 49.7%
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North America2013 2.0%2014 2.5%
Asia Pacific
2013 4.6% 2014 4.7%
Western Europe
2013 0.0% 2014 1.3%
Eastern Europe
2013 1.9% 2014 2.8%
Latin America
2013 2.6% 2014 2.9%
The World in 2014
MENSA
2013 3.7% 2014 4.1%
MENSAEgyptIsraelSaudi ArabiaNigeriaS Africa
United Kingdom
2013 2.0% 2014 2.5%
4.5% 7.5%
2.5%
2.8%
2.9%
6.0% 6.9%
2.5% 2.5%
MINT Mexico 2.9%Indonesia 6.0%Nigeria 6.9%Turkey 4.5%
BRICBrazil 2.8%Russia 2.5%India 4.5%China 7.5%
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North America
15%
Asia Pacific
15%
Western Europe
50%
Eastern Europe
6%
Latin America
1%
The World in 2014 - UK Direction of Trade Stats
MENSA
7%
Based on 2012 ONS data
MINT
2%
BRIC
8%
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International Perspectives 2014
January 2014
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Ten Predictions for 2014
January 2014
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Ten Predictions for 2014
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World trade growth is expected to recover from an average 2.8% in 2013 to a trend rate of growth of around 5% over the next two years.
World Trade Growth
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UK GDP Growth
UK GDP growth for 2013 will berevised up to 2% in the year.
We expect growth of 2.5% in 2014rising to 2.7% in the following year.
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UK Inflation CPI basis
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Unemployment Claimant Count
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Unemployment - LFS Rate
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Average Earnings
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International Trade
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International Trade
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Government Borrowing
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Sterling Exchange Rates
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Gilt Yields
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Base Rates
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QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION
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ACTION FOR BUSINESSChris Fletcher Director of Policy & Communications
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2014 Overview
• Events programme – QES, QEF, A4B Forums, Council
• Increase and develop the quality of business thought leadership , member opinion and engagement
• Planned activity throughout 2014
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2014 – Current action
• Late payment consultation – short survey for feedback on government consultation
• Zero Hours Contracts – government consultation
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2014 – Major themes and issues
• Cost of doing business - minimum wage vs living wage
• Transport – rail, road, aviation• Energy• Business Bank• Trade• Elections and Referendums
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2014 – Key Dates
• Surveys - QES, March, June, September, November
- Trade Survey , Feb- Labour Market, May- Business Environment, October
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2014 – Key Dates
• Elections and Referendums- European Elections, May- Scottish Referendum, September- General Election, May 2015
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2014 – Key Dates
• Events- 42 A4B events in 10 areas- Sector events and seminars, Business leaders,
Women in Business- Great Manchester Business Conference 21st March- Annual Dinner, 15th May- QES Briefings - Quarterly Economic Forecasts- Policy & Campaign Committee, Chamber Council
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2014 – Online
www.gmchamber.co.ukwww.gmchambereconomics.com
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CLOSING REMARKSPhil Cusack President
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THANK YOU