Download - Gresham "Group 150" - September 2010
SEPTEMBER 2010
1
ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150We are pleased to present the September edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.
The market value of the Group 150 at the end of August was $485 billion, down 1.7% from July. The entry point into the Group 150 for August was $77.2 million versus $77.0 million for July. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index fell 2.1% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 1.5% and 2.0% respectively.
We started the month at Diggers and Dealers in Kalgoorlie, where over 2,200 delegates met to discuss the current and future direction of the Australian resources sector. Overall, sentiment was positive, with a renewed interest and focus in particular on the Australian and West African gold sectors. Of course, politics – and the broader issue of sovereign risk - was front in Kalgoorlie.
In this edition of the Group 150, we have updated the “MRRT-impact” chart from the August edition, to determine whether the market capitalisation of the constituents of the Group 150 have recovered following the election. While the outcome is yet to be determined, we expect that the market is increasingly assuming that the MRRT, as presently conceived, is unlikely to see the light of day, at least for the next term of parliament. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 20.0% (vs 15.4% July). International focused companies increased 14.1% (vs an increase of 7.6% in July).
As directors, managers, advisors and (occasionally) investors, we spend considerable time seeking to identify opportunities for future growth. But every now and then it is worthwhile looking in the mirror to evaluate past performance.
In this edition, we examine the economic performance of a group of major Australian mining companies across a variety of commodities over a 20 year period from January 1990 (note there is a relatively small population of “survivors” over this period from which to chose). Economic performance has been measured by calculating, in real US$ terms, the rate of return enjoyed by shareholders through both capital appreciation and dividends over various periods.
At various five year intervals, we assess for 6 companies, the total return to shareholders against an industry cost of capital, estimated at around 8%pa in real terms. Real rates of return are useful in showing relative performance without the camouflage of inflation, and can be used to gauge the results of the implementation of certain strategies, or exploration success, against competitor performance over the same period of time.
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
Group 150
September 2010
Edition 6
Darren MartinGresham Advisory [email protected]+61 8 9486 7077+61 412 144 719
Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
Top 150 ASX LiSTed reSource compAnieS - AuGuSTBy Market Capitalisation
Group 150
2
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %
Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change
1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $206,195.2 $223,280.7 (7.7%) 51 49 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $533.8 $551.6 (3.2%)
2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $137,500.1 $138,517.0 (0.7%) 52 58 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $518.1 $393.7 31.6%
3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $18,010.4 $15,815.3 13.9% 53 51 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $492.6 $504.9 (2.4%)
4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $14,543.6 $13,331.1 9.1% 54 53 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $477.7 $444.2 7.5%
5 5 Lihir Gold Limited (ASX:LGL) $10,611.9 $9,640.7 10.1% 55 55 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $442.4 $438.4 0.9%
6 6 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $8,468.0 $8,398.7 0.8% 56 70 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $428.4 $272.4 57.3%
7 9 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,184.9 $3,782.3 10.6% 57 54 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $427.6 $438.6 (2.5%)
8 7 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $3,844.0 $3,898.6 (1.4%) 58 56 Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR) $419.1 $429.7 (2.5%)
9 8 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,807.6 $3,838.8 (0.8%) 59 63 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $395.2 $332.8 18.8%
10 10 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $3,475.0 $3,566.7 (2.6%) 60 59 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $392.9 $392.9 0.0%
11 11 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,299.2 $3,179.2 3.8% 61 60 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) $384.1 $362.4 6.0%
12 13 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,952.0 $2,675.6 10.3% 62 65 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $377.3 $319.6 18.1%
13 15 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,739.3 $2,384.8 14.9% 63 62 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $359.9 $336.6 6.9%
14 21 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) $2,690.7 $1,744.1 54.3% 64 61 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $356.9 $344.9 3.5%
15 12 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $2,663.4 $2,761.0 (3.5%) 65 57 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $347.1 $396.4 (12.4%)
16 14 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $2,508.2 $2,628.4 (4.6%) 66 74 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $335.7 $257.8 30.2%
17 16 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) $2,382.0 $2,362.3 0.8% 67 78 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $334.3 $238.8 40.0%
18 18 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $2,315.1 $2,292.4 1.0% 68 66 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $329.9 $304.3 8.4%
19 19 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,181.8 $2,195.0 (0.6%) 69 72 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $321.3 $260.8 23.2%
20 17 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $2,150.3 $2,349.2 (8.5%) 70 64 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $305.0 $326.8 (6.7%)
21 20 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,877.8 $1,792.1 4.8% 71 69 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $298.2 $277.2 7.6%
22 22 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,742.9 $1,683.7 3.5% 72 46 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $288.7 $631.8 (54.3%)
23 24 Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX:LYC) $1,623.1 $1,258.2 29.0% 73 88 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $284.7 $211.6 34.5%
24 26 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,604.0 $1,020.4 57.2% 74 68 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $275.8 $278.9 (1.1%)
25 23 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,474.4 $1,627.4 (9.4%) 75 76 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $262.7 $244.6 7.4%
26 0 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,207.7 - - 76 75 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $262.0 $247.4 5.9%
27 25 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,184.0 $1,076.4 10.0% 77 67 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $260.3 $290.8 (10.5%)
28 31 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,158.6 $880.4 31.6% 78 73 CBH Resources Ltd. (ASX:CBH) $258.8 $258.7 0.0%
29 27 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,009.0 $984.6 2.5% 79 71 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $252.9 $265.7 (4.8%)
30 29 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $990.2 $952.3 4.0% 80 83 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $240.2 $220.1 9.1%
31 36 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $980.6 $781.3 25.5% 81 86 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $236.0 $218.5 8.0%
32 32 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $927.0 $871.7 6.3% 82 80 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) $228.4 $229.4 (0.4%)
33 37 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) $866.9 $765.0 13.3% 83 102 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $226.9 $158.8 42.9%
34 28 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $864.3 $957.8 (9.8%) 84 91 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $225.9 $193.0 17.0%
35 30 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $834.9 $930.8 (10.3%) 85 85 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $221.3 $218.7 1.2%
36 39 Citadel Resource Group Limited (ASX:CGG) $804.8 $710.1 13.3% 86 93 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $218.6 $191.1 14.4%
37 42 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $801.0 $652.6 22.7% 87 81 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $217.7 $228.2 (4.6%)
38 41 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $757.1 $701.5 7.9% 88 82 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $212.8 $225.3 (5.5%)
39 33 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $756.1 $824.0 (8.2%) 89 90 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $210.7 $206.3 2.1%
40 38 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $750.1 $727.6 3.1% 90 87 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $209.6 $217.7 (3.7%)
41 40 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $709.0 $705.7 0.5% 91 92 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $204.8 $191.2 7.1%
42 45 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $672.0 $636.5 5.6% 92 97 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $202.4 $176.0 15.0%
43 43 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $645.2 $645.0 0.0% 93 77 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $202.3 $239.2 (15.4%)
44 48 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $634.8 $586.0 8.3% 94 96 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $200.2 $182.0 10.0%
45 44 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $622.6 $637.4 (2.3%) 95 84 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $196.3 $220.1 (10.8%)
46 35 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $622.3 $782.1 (20.4%) 96 79 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $191.4 $230.8 (17.1%)
47 34 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $605.2 $796.8 (24.0%) 97 94 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $184.9 $190.4 (2.9%)
48 47 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $579.5 $589.9 (1.8%) 98 89 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV) $184.7 $210.1 (12.1%)
49 50 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $541.1 $511.1 5.9% 99 115 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $180.4 $125.1 44.2%
50 52 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $539.9 $447.0 20.8% 100 106 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $180.4 $139.9 28.9%
Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas
SEPTEMBER 2010
3
new enTrAnTS - AuGuST eXiTS - AuGuST26 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT)102 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM)146 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH)149 Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE)150 Pluton Resources Limited (ASX:PLV)
Based on market capitalisation as at 31 August 2010 vs 31 July 2010
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %
Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-10 31-Jul-10 Change
101 101 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $177.6 $163.9 8.4% 126 123 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $110.5 $108.3 2.0%
102 163 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $174.8 $67.2 160.1% 127 117 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $109.5 $118.9 (7.9%)
103 98 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $174.2 $174.2 0.0% 128 121 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $109.3 $113.2 (3.4%)
104 95 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $171.2 $186.7 (8.3%) 129 141 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $104.4 $84.6 23.4%
105 99 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $164.6 $168.7 (2.4%) 130 132 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $101.6 $92.3 10.1%
106 134 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $161.1 $92.0 75.1% 131 122 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $97.6 $113.2 (13.8%)
107 100 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $158.7 $167.1 (5.0%) 132 142 Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO) $97.5 $83.6 16.6%
108 107 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $144.3 $138.0 4.6% 133 131 Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) $96.8 $94.3 2.7%
109 104 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $143.4 $151.4 (5.3%) 134 126 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) $95.5 $101.3 (5.7%)
110 110 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $141.9 $132.0 7.5% 135 140 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $94.4 $85.2 10.8%
111 108 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $141.3 $133.5 5.8% 136 124 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $94.2 $103.7 (9.2%)
112 114 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $137.2 $125.2 9.6% 137 128 Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO) $93.8 $99.9 (6.1%)
113 113 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $134.9 $126.1 7.0% 138 139 Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (ASX:CHN) $90.5 $86.9 4.1%
114 103 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $131.9 $151.5 (12.9%) 139 127 Terramin Australia Ltd. (ASX:TZN) $89.7 $101.3 (11.5%)
115 118 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $128.9 $118.3 9.0% 140 129 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $89.6 $98.6 (9.1%)
116 109 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $125.5 $132.7 (5.4%) 141 135 Magma Metals Ltd. (ASX:MMW) $88.0 $91.9 (4.2%)
117 116 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $124.5 $121.2 2.7% 142 125 Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM) $87.6 $102.3 (14.4%)
118 130 Thundelarra Exploration Ltd. (ASX:THX) $123.6 $97.7 26.5% 143 133 Morning Star Gold NL (ASX:MCO) $85.7 $92.1 (6.9%)
119 112 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $123.0 $128.3 (4.1%) 144 136 Western Plains Resources Limited (ASX:WPG) $82.8 $91.3 (9.3%)
120 105 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $121.4 $141.3 (14.1%) 145 144 Aussie Q Resources Limited (ASX:AQR) $81.3 $78.7 3.3%
121 111 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $120.2 $128.9 (6.7%) 146 153 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) $79.4 $71.8 10.6%
122 145 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $117.9 $78.3 50.6% 147 149 Energy Metals Limited (ASX:EME) $79.2 $74.5 6.3%
123 119 Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) $112.6 $117.7 (4.3%) 148 143 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $79.2 $81.1 (2.3%)
124 138 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $112.1 $88.4 26.8% 149 162 Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE) $77.5 $68.2 13.6%
125 120 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $111.7 $117.1 (4.6%) 150 165 Pluton Resources Limited (ASX:PLV) $77.2 $65.5 17.9%
Group 150 LeAderS And LAGGerS - mArkeT cApiTALiSATion performAnce - AuGuST
Leaders Laggers
Source: Capital IQ
* Included placement, acquisition and/or material option conversion during month
Bannerman Resources Limited (ASX:BMN)Energy and Minerals Australia Limited (ASX:EMA)Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC)North Australian Diamonds Limited (ASX:NAD)Strike Resources Limited (ASX:SRK)
Group 150
4
Group 150 SecTor mArkeT cApiTALiSATion - AuGuST
merGer & AcquiSiTionS - Announced in AuGuST
Date Announced Target Acquirer Value
(A$m)
Percent Sought
(%)
Premium - 1 Day Prior
(%)
Premium - 1 Month Prior
(%)
Consideration Offered
24-Aug-2010 Sphere Minerals Ltd. (ASX:SPH) Xstrata plc (LSE:XTA) 482.1 100.0 61.3 61.3 Cash
Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m
Group 150 mArkeT cApiTALiSATion
ASX indeX performAnce - AuGuST
Mar
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$b)
SEPTEMBER 2010
5
Economic Performance (1 Jan 1990 to 30 June 2010) BHP Billiton Coal & Allied ERA Iluka Newcrest Rio Tinto
Real US$ Total Returns from US$1 invested on 1 Jan 1990 US$10.77 US$21.48 US$4.03 US$2.32 US$5.20 US$9.49
Index return at cost of capital 8% pa (real) US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81 US$4.81
Investment return (US$ real terms) US$5.96 US$16.67 US$(0.78) US$(2.49) US$0.39 US$4.68
20 YeAr economic performAnce VerSuS 8% reAL inVeSTmenT reTurn (uS$ reAL)
0100200300400500600700800900
10001100120013001400150016001700
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years
Indexed to 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
Newcrest
Newcrest 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years
Indexed to 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
Iluka
Iluka 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years
Indexed to 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
ERA
ERA 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years
Indexed to 100
0200400600800
10001200140016001800200022002400
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
Coal & Allied
Coal & Allied 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years
Indexed to 100
0100200300400500600700800900
10001100120013001400
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
BHP Billiton
BHP Billiton 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years
Indexed to 100
The charts below reflect the total returns to shareholders (including capital appreciation and dividends) versus an estimated industry cost of capital of around 8% pa in real terms, commencing at various 5 years intervals over the past 20 years.
While performance over shorter periods varies with commodity cycles, a majority of the selected companies have met or exceeded the hurdle for each of the various time frames, greatly assisted by the recent demand growth driven by China.
Source: Gresham. US$ real returns. Share prices adjusted by US CPI. Returns calculated from 1 Jan 1990
Group 150
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The “MRRT-Impact” chart below, assesses the impact on market capitalisation of the Group 150 companies since the announcement of the MRRT. The rebound witnessed last month has been further enhanced following the election. While the outcome is yet to be determined, we expect that the market is increasingly assuming that the MRRT, as presently conceived, is unlikely to see the light of day, at least for the next term of parliament. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has rebounded 20.0% (vs 15.4% at the end of July), while international focussed peers increased 14.1% (vs 7.6% at the end of July). Global diversified companies have also recovered 13.7% (vs 14.3% at the end of July) during the same period.
Group 150 - “mrrT impAcT” - BASed on projecT/S LocATion
Only 148 companies in August data set as Astron Resources and Guildford Coal were new IPO’s during the periodOnly 149 companies in July data set as Guildford Coal was new IPO’s during the period
Greater proportion ofDomestic focussed companies
Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Overseas/ Domestic Total
End of August
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 47 85 16 148
- Simple Average Return 14.1% 20.0% 13.7%
End of July
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 84 16 149
- Simple Average Return 7.6% 15.4% 14.3%
Mar
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Perf
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Sin
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ropo
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MRR
T A
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SEPTEMBER 2010
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Share Price Performance - August 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
BASe meTALS - SecTor performAnce
Shar
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ance
Shar
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ance
Shar
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ance
Copper Nickel Zinc
Group 150
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Share Price Performance - August 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
coAL - SecTor performAnce
Shar
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ance
Shar
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ance
Shar
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ance
SEPTEMBER 2010
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Share Price Performance - August 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
diVerSified - SecTor performAnce
Shar
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form
ance
Shar
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ance
Shar
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ance
induSTriAL minerALS - SecTor performAnce
Shar
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Shar
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Shar
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ance
Group 150
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Share Price Performance - August 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
GoLd - SecTor performAnce
Shar
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ance
Shar
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form
ance
Shar
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SEPTEMBER 2010
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Share Price Performance - August 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
iron ore - SecTor performAnce
Shar
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ance
Shar
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form
ance
Shar
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ance
Group 150
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Share Price Performance - August 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
urAnium - SecTor performAnce
Shar
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Shar
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Shar
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SEPTEMBER 2010
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conSenSuS commodiTY price forecASTS - August
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low
Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ)
Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb)
Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb)
Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb)
AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl)
$1,235 $1,248 $1,071 $1,050 $946
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Spot 2010 2011 2012 2013
$18.91 $19.50$16.45 $17.90 $16.19
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$3.38 $3.53 $3.52$3.05
$3.80
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$9.55 $9.61$11.00
$8.50 $9.00
$0.00
$4.00
$8.00
$12.00
$16.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0.95 $1.07$1.22
$1.02 $1.10
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0.95 $1.07 $1.13$0.98 $1.00
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$9.82$8.32 $8.70
$7.29$8.48
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
$10.00
$12.50
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$46.50$62.00 $63.25 $57.10 $53.30
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$0.89 $0.86 $0.90 $0.81 $0.79
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
$73.51 $85.00 $95.50 $97.63 $88.38
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
Group 150
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Gresham Advisory Partners LimitedA.B.N. 97 003 344 269
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Perth WA 6000
Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
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Website: www.gresham.com.au
Terms and ConditionsInformation contained in this publicationThe opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees (collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation. Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision. To whom this information is providedThis publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.Disclaimer and limitation of liabilityTo the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’ option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you.No warranties made as to contentGresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an “AS IS” basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant-ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability.CopyrightCopyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other person or incorporate the information into any other document.General mattersThese Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdiction is not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches.
Advised BHP Billiton on its
$204m offer for United Minerals
Corporation.
Advised BG Group on its $1bn takeover offer for
Pure Energy Resources Limited.
Advised IAMGOLD Corporation on its $265m acquisition
of Gallery Gold.
Advised Gem Diamonds on its
$300m acquisition of Kimberley Diamonds.
Advised Polaris Metals NL on
$178m takeover offer by Mineral
Resources Limited.
Advised Tethyan on its $220m
competing takeover offer by Crosby and Antogafasta/Barrick.
Advised Iluka on its $114m
institutional placement and
$353m accelerated right issue.
Advised Bannerman
Resources on its financing with
Resource Capital Funds.
Advised Iluka Resources on its
$54m Narama coal divestment to
Xstrata.
Advised Murchison Metals
on its joint venture with Mitsubishi.
2010
2010
Advised BHP Billiton on its
US$116bn iron ore production
joint venture with Rio Tinto.
2010
Introduced Denham Capital to
Trans Tasman Resources resulting
in NZ iron sands investment.
2010
2009
Advised Indophil on $545m
recommended offer from Zijin
2010
Advised BHP Billiton on the disposal of the Yabulu Nickel
refinery.
2009
Advised Allied Gold on its $54m
acquisition of Australian
Solomons Gold.
2009
Advised Brandrill Limited on its
$45m takeover offer by Ausdrill
Limited.
2009
2008
Advised Kalahari Minerals on its
$140m proposed merger with
Extract Resources.
2008
Advised Centaurus
Resources on its $20m merger
with Glengarry Resources.
2010
2009/08
2008
Advised Summit Resources on its
A$1.2bn takeover by Paladin Energy.
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
Advised Guandong Rising on its $216m
cornerstone investment in Pan
Aust.
GRAM2009
Advised Energy Metals on its $86m
proportional takeover offer by China
Guangdong Nuclear Power Group.
2009
Mergers and Acquisitions
Takeover Defence
Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets
recenT reSourceS TrAnSAcTionS
Takeover Defence
Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets
Mergers and Acquisitions