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Future of Development and
Development Cooperation
Lawrence Haddad
Institute of Development Studies, UK
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• Growth is good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
Developmentin Transition
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• Growth is good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
• Growth is
sometimes good
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Growth: highly variable effects on
•
Poverty – Growth by sector
– Growth by inequality
–
Growth by region – Growth by governance regime
• Impacts on ecological footprints
•
WellbeingBut there are choices
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National: Poverty down by 12% –
survey
7 February2012
Rwandan
poverty rates
decline from
57% to 45%between 2006
and 2011
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• Growth is good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
• Growth is
sometimes good
• Focus on poor people
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Large countries are back in the growth game
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Future IDA Graduates?
IDA 16/17 Angola, Armenia, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bos&Herz, Congo,
Djibouti, Georgia, Guyana, Honduras, Moldova,
Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Uzbekistan, Cameroon,
India, Nigeria, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia
IDA 18/19 Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Kyrgyz Rep, Laos, Mauritania,
PNG / Cambodia, Ghana, Lesotho, Nicaragua,
Pakistan, Senegal, Tajikistan
IDA 20/21 Bangladesh, Benin
Moss, Todd and Benjamin Leo. 2011. “IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile
Lease on Life?” Center for Global Development, Working Paper 246, March.
DFID Bilateral Graduates: 43 in 2011, to 27 in 2016
and ODA is focusing on fewer poor countries
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Figure 4: Changes in numbers in poverty 1998-2007
210 199
18
102
455
683
159
212
146 146
451
212
low fragile low non
fragile
middle
fragile
middle
nonfragile
india china
1988-90 2007-08
(millions)
From data in Sumner 2010
But 70% of the world’s poor
live in middle income countries
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• Growth is good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
• Growth is
sometimes good
• Focus on poor people
• More rounded view of
well being
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Measurement matters: MPI vs $1.25 /day
Source: OPHI 2010
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UK
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Japan=Philippines on happiness
Russia=Mexico on GDP/cap
Happiness and GDP/cap PPP
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• Growth is Good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
• Growth is
sometimes good
• Focus on poor people
• More rounded view of
well being
• GDGs
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Problems with MDGs
• Not focused on Sustainable GlobalManagement
• Exclude Rich Countries
• Weak Accountability
• Top Down
• Clunky for advocacy
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Commitment to reduce hunger and hunger status?
HUNGER STATUS (GHI 2010)
COMMITMENT TO
REDUCE HUNGER
Low Moderate Serious Alarming Extremely
Alarming
Low Nepal Rwanda
Lesotho Mozambique
GuineaBissau
Zambia
Bangladesh
Medium Ghana Kenya India Burundi
China Nigeria
Senegal
High Brazil Malawi Ethiopia
Guatemala Tanzania
Gambia
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Measuring the commitment to reduce hungerCountry Government
expenditure rankPolicies and
programmes rankHRCI
(1 is best)
Denmark 3 4 1Finland 6 9 2
Belgium 9 7 3 Ireland 5 11 3 Norway 2 15 5 France 11 6 5 United Kingdom 14 3 5 Australia 16 2 8
Netherlands 10 8 8 Spain 4 14 8 Germany 12 10 11 South Korea 23 1 12 Japan 8 17 13
Canada 13 13 14 Greece 21 5 14
Sweden 7 19 14 Italy 22 12 17 USA 18 18 18 Austria 20 16 18 Switzerland 15 22 20 New Zealand 17 20 20 Portugal 19 21 22
Source: IDS – at hrcindex.org
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Japan’s current proposal for post-2015 framework
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• Growth is Good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
• Growth is
sometimes good
• Focus on poor people
• More rounded view of
well being
• GDGs
• Beyond Aid/Charity
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Sustainable GlobalManagement
MDG andPoverty
reduction
Donorcountry’s
nationalinterests
The Trinity of goals needs to be achieved
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Solidarity Cooperation as
needed
Charity Go it alone
Low belief in interconnectedness
High belief in interconnectedness
High
altruism
Low
altruism
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• Growth is Good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
• Growth is
sometimes good
• Focus on poor people
• More rounded view of
well being
• GDGs
• Beyond Aid/Charity
• Problems & Solutions
everywhere
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Solutions
from theSouth
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Nirvana
• Theory of Change
What actually happens
•
Keep D-i-D• Explore portability
Snake oil salesman
Well, it works here!
Many ODA
& private sectorevaluations?
Low external validity
High external validity
High
internal
validity
Low
internal
validity
Finding Solutions
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How to get at
What Actually
Happens?
Fix the brokenfeedback loop:
talk to people
who are
supposed to be
benefitting
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• Growth is good
• Focus on poor countries
• Material well being
• MDGs
• Aid/Charity• Problems over there,
Solutions over here
• Growth is
sometimes good
• Focus on poor people
• More rounded view of
well being
• GDGs
• Beyond Aid/Charity
• Problems & Solutions
everywhere
Conclusion
Need to preparefor brave new
world in the
second sphere
while addressing
the first sphere—
no time to wait.
Preparation for
the second willalso help us
address the
problems of the
first sphere.
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Arigatou gozaimasu!