Download - Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014
1Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014
BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND
CYCLE INDICATORS
Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE)
2
Overview
Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3
Timeline……………………………………………………………….4
Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5
Cycle
Indicators...........................................................................9
Mostly used series and quantitative
data...............................10
On Going
Projects.....................................................................14
Tendency Surveys and Cycle IndicatorsTendency Surveys and Cycle IndicatorsTimeline of the FGVTimeline of the FGV
2005Consumer
M
2012M
Labour market leading and coincident Indicators
Trade &Construction
2010M
2008Services
M
Latin AmericanEconomic Survey
2007Q
Experts survey/part of Ifo WES
2013M
Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV
1998Investment
Q
1966Manufacturing (Quarterly until 2005)
M
System of Tendency SurveysSystem of Tendency Surveys
• Since 2008, expansion of coverage and improvements have been supported by the Brazilian Central Bank;
• Main results are made public on FGV´s web site (www.portalibre.fgv.br);
• Detailed results are sold as a means of financing part of the investments.
Main Statistical FeaturesMain Statistical Features
Business tendency Surveys
•Questionnaires and sector coverage are similar to the European Harmonised Programme;
•Firms stratified by size (large, medium and small) and sector;
• Web-based questionnaire complemented by telephone calls.
Consumer Survey
• Questionnaire combines the “European Harmonised”, Michigan and TCB;
• Consumers stratified by income level and region (city);
• Coverage – 7 major cities of the country;
• Data collected by web and telephone calls.
Calendar for FGV Surveys is available at FGV´s web site: http://portalibre.fgv.br/
FGV Surveys – Size of SamplesFGV Surveys – Size of Samples
Sector Size of Sample Number of sectors*
FGV´s monthly Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys
Manufacturing 1,200 21
Services 2,200 29
Trade 1,200 17
Construction 700 11
Total of monthly Business Surveys 5,300 78
Total of Consumer Survey 2,100 4 / 7 *
Quarterly Surveys
Investment 850 21
Latin American Economic Survey 150 ---
* 4 income levels; 7 cities
Indicators from Surveys used in BrazilIndicators from Surveys used in Brazil
Besides the confidence indices, some individual indicators extracted from theses surveys are widely used in Brazil:
• Consumer´s Inflation Expectations (published separately);
• Consumer´s employment assessment;
• Household´s financial situation (delinquency rates);
• Savings/consumption (consumer´s indebtedness cycle);
• Manufacturing Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU);
• Inventory levels;
• Investment Confidence Index – Aggregation of confidence indices from sectors related
to productive investments (eg: capital goods, inputs to construction, etc).
Cycle IndicatorsCycle Indicators
Starting in 2009, FGV created indicators from Tendency Surveys data combined with
other indicators:
• Labour market leading and coincident Indicators (only survey indicators);
• Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV (following the
Conference Board traditional family of indicators).
Manufacturing Confidence IndexManufacturing Confidence Indexx Manufacturing Production*x Manufacturing Production*
Source: FGV/IBRE and IBGE
* Published with a 40-day delay
Expected Employment x Industrial EmploymentExpected Employment x Industrial Employment
Source: FGV/IBRE and MTE
Leading Economic Index and Coincident Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic IndexEconomic Index
Source: FGV/IBRE
The gray areas represent the recessions of the brazilian economy, according to the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE).
On Going ProjectsOn Going Projects
• Level of capacity utilisation for non-manufacturing sectors (2013-);
• Granting access to microdata from both Consumer and Business surveys to academic researchers from inside and outside FGV (2014);
• Website for the working papers: http://bit.ly/TextosDeDiscussaoIBRE
• Extending the consumer Survey for the whole country (2014-);
• Programme for producing an aggregate Confidence Index for the BRICS’ countries and a Book on the BRICS’ economic cycles (2012-);