Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Forward and inverse modelling of atmospheric trace gas at LSCE
P. Bousquet, I. Pison, P. Peylin, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, S. Szopa
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
LMDZ-INCAFull model
LMDZ-INCACH4+MCF
SACSSimplified
Atm. Chemistry System
CHIMERERegional model
Forward modelling
Inverse modelling
Traditionalinversion Variational
inversion
Atmospheric chemistry modelling at LSCE
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Hauglustaine et al., JGR, 2004
• Standard horizontal resolution 3.75x2.5
• Standard vertical resolution: 19 hybrid -p levels (surface to 35 km).
• Dynamic: large scale advection of tracers: LMDz
• Chemistry: standard version for tropospheric ozone calculation including NMHCs (90 species – 300 reactions); aerosols (mineral, sea-salt, BC, OC, sulfur): INCA
• Biogenic Emissions from the ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model
• Anthropogenic emissions from either Edgar/IIASA/RETRO
• Biomass burning from van der Werf 2006
The general circulation model: LMDz-INCA
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
LMDz-INCA General Circulation Model. INCA: tropospheric gaz phase chemistry, aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). 3.75° x 2.5°.
ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model used to derive surface properties, vegetation distribution, carbon cycle, biogenic and soil emissions. 40km x 40km.
Real-time chemical weather based on operational meteorology OR reanalysis (ERA40) OR free running GCM.
Chimère regional air quality model nested in LMDz-INCA global model. 50km X 50km.
1/ Global to regional scale modeling platform
3/ 2030 simulation
PHOTOCOMP intercomparison (IPCC AR4-ACCENT) of future atmospheric composition. 25 state-of-the-art global chemistry transport models. 3 different scenarios for future surface emissions.
Regional model Chimère constrained by LMDz-INCA : relative impact of emissions versus long-range transport of pollution on air quality in Europe.
2/ 1960-2000 long-term simulationRETRO EU project (2003-2006) : reanalysis of the tropospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years.
Best available meteorology (ERA40), new monthly resolved anthropogenic and biomass burning surface emissions, stratospheric ozone climatologies.
Multimodel approach: 2 GCMs with chemistry and 3 CTMs.
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
http://www.lsce-inca.cea.fr/
1/ LMDz-INCA global chemical weather platform 3 day (NCEP) and 5 day (ECMWF) forecasts for global
tropospheric chemistry,aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O)
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
1/ Biomass burning emissions based on MODIS fires
MODIS fire pixels over last 3 days Siberian fires 31 Aug 2006
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
1/ Vegetation and carbon real-time platform
http://www.lsce-orchidee.cea.fr/Net Primary Production, soil water content, Leaf Area Index, PAR, …
NPP
gC/m2/day
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
IsopreneIsoprene
1/ Spatial and seasonal variations of BVOC 1/ Spatial and seasonal variations of BVOC emissionsemissions
BVOC emissions and NO soil emissions derived from the ORCHIDEE vegetation model
MonoterpenesMonoterpenes10-10 kgC/m2/s
January
July
GEIAORCHIDEE
Lathière et al., ACP, 2006
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
2/ 1960-2000 global simulation : surface emissions
Cummulative NOx emission by country groups
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Emission (Gg/year)
Africa
Australia and New Zealand
Other Asia (except USSR &Middle East)
Middle East
Central and South America
North America
former USSR
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Anthropogenic Emissions:
New global inventories for NOx, CO, and (detailed) NMVOC on a 0.5° 0.5° and monthly time resolution from 1960 to 2000. TEAM methodology (Pulles et al. 2006). Processed by M. Schulz (MPI Met).
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
2/ 1960-2000 global simulation : ozone evolution
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Max
Min
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
3/ Implication for Europe : regional model
Szopa et al., GRL, 2006
Current Legislation Max. Feasible Reduction IPCC SRES A2
Surface ozone change (ppb) averaged over July (2030-Present)
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Traditional inversion
Large TRANSCOM regions
Several processes on each
1979-2006 period
MCF optimisation to get OH
CH4 optimisation using optimized OH over 1984-2006
Monthly emissions & observations
Use of 13CH4 observations
Iterative procedure to calculate response functions
18 different inversions varying set-up
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Bousquet et al., 2005, 2006
Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches Philippe Bousquet 13 Décembre 2006
Optimisation des sources et puits de méthane
EmissionsPrior Poste
OH Prior Poste
Inversion méthyl-chloroforme (CH3CCl3)
Inversion méthane
∂c∂t
+ v.grad(c) +1
ρdiv(ρ ′v ′c ) + k[OH ]c = S
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Consistent with top-down estimates ?
Bousquet et al., ACP, 2005
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Geographical
Breakdown
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006/ EEA
Geographical
Europe
Source
Breakdown
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
And the plant emissions ?
Scenario with plant emissions gives the same atmospheric answer at surface station but with a 30% reduction in emissions (100 TgCH4/yr)
IAV is “borrowed” mostly to anthropogenic emissions leaving natural emissions IAV almost unchanged at least from the early 1990s
Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006
Planned work in HYMN :
WP5 : Forward simulations with full LMDZ-INCA modelperiod ? 2-3 years ?Common initial state ?Common emissions ? Different scenarios ?What about OH ?Diagnostics ? Seasonal, synoptic, IAV ?
WP6 : Inverse modellingmulti-species variational approachUse of traditional inversions ? H2 inversion with traditional approach