![Page 1: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan
Himalaya
A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change
DGM-NCAP Project
KarmaDepartment of Geology & Mines
Ministry of Economic AffairsRoyal Government of Bhutan
![Page 2: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Location
NEPAL BHUTAN
CHINA
INDIA
Population : 6,34,982Religion : Mahayana BuddhismArea : 47000 Km2
![Page 3: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Glaciers & Glacial lakes in Bhutan
Glaciers = 677Glacial Lakes = 2674Potentially dangerous lakes = 25
Types of glaciers and glacier lakes
Glaciers : 1. Debris covered glacier (D-type)2. Debris free glacier (C-type)
Glacial lakes: Moraine dam
![Page 4: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Relation Between Temperature rise and Glacier Mass Balance
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010Years
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
Glacier shrinkage
Global
![Page 5: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Impacts of global warming in Asia IPCC 2001
![Page 6: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Types of GlacierClean (C-type)
Debris covered (D-type)
![Page 7: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Oct. 1999
Oct. 1984Change in GlacierChange in GlacierChange in GlacierChange in Glacier
![Page 8: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Oct. 1999
Oct. 1984
Change in GlacierChange in GlacierChange in GlacierChange in Glacier
![Page 9: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Jichu Dramo Glaciers
12 m Retreat rate with 2-3 m surface lowering (Naito et al 2000)
![Page 10: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Source : Karma et al 2003
![Page 11: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Debris covered glacier
![Page 12: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Formation of Glacier Lake
• Melting process– as vertical thinning of glacier
• Glacier retreat– as horizontal expansion of lake
melt stress
glacier retreat
![Page 13: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Mechanism of Expansion
• Small ponds on the debris-covered area• Aggregated medium pond, expansion
begin• Large lake, rapid expansion continue• Final stage, no more expansion
GLOF depends on the moraine strength
Lugge II
Lugge
Thorthormi
Raphsthreng
![Page 14: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Expansion of Rapstreng Tso
1993, SPOT
![Page 15: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Expansion of Thorthormi
1993, SPOT
![Page 16: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Expansion of Lugge Tso
1993, SPOT
![Page 17: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Impact of Glacier retreatFrom WFP Program Report in Nepal 2005
For 3 Countries (Nepal, India, China)
1.Fresh Water Regime
- Glacier retreat increase river levels---Flooding (IPCC 2001)
- Ice volume reduces with time- -- Reduction in run offsExample
- Reduction on Ganges river by two-third-37 % India’s irrigated land- 500 million people
![Page 18: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Impact of Glacier Retreat
2. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood
-Dig Tso in 1985 (Nepal)
- Zhangzangbo in 1964 &1981(China)
- Lugge Tso in 1994 (Bhutan)
![Page 19: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Impact of Glacier Retreat
3. National Economic Loss
- Hydro Power
- Major Industries relying on water
- Water sensitive agriculture sector
![Page 20: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Possible triggers and causes for GLOF in the Himalayan mountains
![Page 21: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Risk in Bhutan
Puna Tsang Chu
![Page 22: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What Can We do?
• Mitigate critical glacial lakes at the source
• Installation of Technical Early Warning System
• Hazard zonation for GLOF
To Save Lives and minimize damages to the property of the people
![Page 23: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Recent Projects
DGM – NCAP Project- Hazard zonnation for GLOF along Puna
Tsang Chu from Khuruthang to Lhamoizinkha
DGM-UNDPGEF Project- Assessment for early warning system for
GLOFDGM-UNDPGEF Project-Lowering of thorthormi lake
![Page 24: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Project Area : DGM-NCAP project
• Hazard maps exist till Khuruthang
• Major developmental activities
• Settlements
Hazard maps existDGM-NCAP Project Area
![Page 25: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Project Aims & Objective
• Base map for policy & decision makers and planners.
• To save lives & properties
• To render higher degree of safety to the local communities in the future.
Hazard zonation map for GLOF of the area
![Page 26: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Methodology
• Subjective Analysis• Multi-criteria Evaluation
1993, SPOT
BASIS :
Worst Case Scenario
(Rapstreng + Thorthormi)
Rapstreng Tso Thorthormi
Spot 1993
![Page 27: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
What we did?
Delineated areas with different colour code representing different hazard level
Low hazard zoneBLUE
Medium hazard zoneYELLOW
High hazard zoneRED
![Page 28: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Hazard & Vulnerability map
![Page 29: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Vulnerability Assessment
00
00
01
No. of
Bridges
02
03
04
Historical
Monuments
17
14
06
No. of
Livestock
0.13
0.93
0.70
Area
(Km²)
3.439644BlueLow
2.5112230YellowMedium
1.9413646RedHigh
Road Length
(Km)
No. of People
No. of Buildings
Map
Color
Hazard Level
0.28
0.03
0.06
Built Up Area
(Km²)
0.420.390.59BlueLow
0.010.070.02YellowMedium
0.010.120.02RedHigh
Forest Cover
(Km²)
Arid Land
(Barren, Open, Scrubs) (Km²)
Cultivated Land
(Km²)
Map
Color
Hazard Level
![Page 30: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Vulnerability Assessment
00
06
01
No. of
Bridges
04
06
16
Historical
Monuments
1072
220
28
No. of
Livestock
39.921781669BlueLow
8.64836173YellowMedium
5.22362117RedHigh
Road Length
(Km)
No. of People
No. of Buildings
Map
Color
Hazard Level
![Page 31: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
ProjectProject Frame WorkFrame Work
Subjective Analysis Multi-Criteria Evaluation
Verification
Data Collections
GLOF Hazard Analysis
Data Processing
Overlay
High hazard
Quick Bird ImageExisting Data
Field Data
Hazard
Hazard Map
Final Hazard map Vulnerability Assessment
GIS - Database
![Page 32: Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in ...Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan Himalaya A mode of Adaptation to the impacts of climate change DGM-NCAP Project Karma Department](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042804/5f54812bebaffb7c440a55e6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
THANK YOU & TASHI DELEK
Consequence of global warming