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Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’How pupils’ data provides both challenge
and opportunity
Professor David Jesson
University of York
Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’How pupils’ data provides both challenge
and opportunity
Professor David Jesson
University of York
Maximising Pupils’ Performance Maximising Pupils’ Performance
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or – the dangers of League Tables
Performance ComparisonsPerformance Comparisons
Beware … the dangers of league tablesBeware … the dangers of league tables
S-Rate
A 91%
B 73%
C 82%
D 55%
E 5%
F 99.2%
Hospital Type
Orthopaedic
Accident/Emergency
General Surgical
Coronary Unit
Maternity (shd be 200+ %)
Hospice
for Hospitals!
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First Major Principle of Fair EvaluationFirst Major Principle of Fair Evaluation
• What goes in affects what comes out• What goes in affects what comes out
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Performance Comparisons: as used by OfSTRICHPerformance Comparisons: as used by OfSTRICH
Beware … the dangers of league tablesBeware … the dangers of league tables
S-Rate
A 91%
B 73%
C 82%
D 55%
E 5%
F 99.2%
Hospital Type
Orthopaedic
Accident/Emergency
General Surgical
Coronary Unit
Maternity
Hospice
BENCHMARKSGood Avg Poor
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Second Major Principle of Fair EvaluationSecond Major Principle of Fair Evaluation
• Essential to compare like with like• Essential to compare like with like
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L2L1K2K1J 2J 1I2I1H2H1G2G1F2F1E2E1D2D1C2C1B2B1A2A1
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Month of Birth
%5+
A*
to C
Pas
ses
Sept Aug
Girls
Boys
Some surprising things affect outcomes
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YWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Month of Birth
%5+
A*
to C
Pas
ses
Sept Sept
Month of Birth
Aug Aug
Girls
Boys
Another way of looking at GCSE Performance Birthmonth and Gender
But the most important impact is that made by pupils’ Ks2 Points
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Level 2B
15 Pts
Level 2B
15 Pts
Level 4
27 Pts
Level 4
27 Pts
Level 5/6
36 Pts
Level 5/6
36 Pts5+ A*/A Grades5+ A*/A Grades
Ks1
Ks2
Ks3
GCSENational Curriculum
Assessment FrameworkNational Curriculum
Assessment Framework
Age 7Age 7
Age 11Age 11
Age 16Age 16
Age 14Age 14
3+ A*/A
A Level
Age 18
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National Curriculum Test Levels and PointsNational Curriculum Test Levels and Points
87654321W
87654321W
..
66
12 12
1818
2424
3030
3636
4242
484851
45
39
33
27
21
15
9
3
51
45
39
33
27
21
15
9
3
Levels Points MidPoints
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What goes INTO schoolsWhat goes INTO schools
3231302928272625242322
3231302928272625242322
200
150
100
50
0
200
150
100
50
0
Schools' Average Ks2 Points
Fre
quen
cy
National Intake (Ks2 Points) characteristics for 2010 GCSE Cohort
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What COMES OUT of SchoolsWhat COMES OUT of Schools
100908070605040302010
100908070605040302010
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Percentage achieving 5+ A*CEM Passes
Num
ber
of S
choo
ls
GCSE results from 2010
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What comes OUT in context of what GOES INWhat comes OUT in context of what GOES IN
313029282726252423
313029282726252423
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Schools' Average ks2 Points
% a
chie
ving
5+
A*C
EM
Pas
ses
2010 GCSE results in context of Schools' Intake
Dotted line shows the average or
expected outcome for schools
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What comes OUT in context of what GOES INWhat comes OUT in context of what GOES IN
313029282726252423
313029282726252423
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Schools' Average ks2 Points
% a
chie
ving
5+
A*C
EM
Pas
ses
2010 GCSE results in context of Schools' Intake
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School Level Analyses give overall ‘signals’for more information we need to review Pupils’ progress
School Level Analyses give overall ‘signals’for more information we need to review Pupils’ progress
With around 600,000 pupils taking national tests in each year we have an incomparable source of information about the progress made by different ‘types’ of pupil:
For example:
• Boys/Girls
• Older/Younger
• Advantaged/Disadvantaged
But most important of all:
• Outcomes for pupils of similar but differing ‘abilities’
With around 600,000 pupils taking national tests in each year we have an incomparable source of information about the progress made by different ‘types’ of pupil:
For example:
• Boys/Girls
• Older/Younger
• Advantaged/Disadvantaged
But most important of all:
• Outcomes for pupils of similar but differing ‘abilities’
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Much better understanding of how well schools do arises from looking at PUPILS
Much better understanding of how well schools do arises from looking at PUPILS
Every year some 600,000 pupils take the Key Stage 2 tests – these provide a basis for GROUPING pupils into 5 BANDS
- so that we can discover how well pupils ‘like ours’ perform in all the other schools in the country
This produces a ‘Progress Framework’ which we use in each school to see how much ‘better’ (or ‘worse’) our
pupils have done when compared to national ‘expectations’
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35.935 .835 .735 .635 .535 .435 .335 .235 .135 .034 .934 .834 .734.634 .534 .434 .334 .234 .134 .033 .933 .833 .733 .633 .533.433 .333 .233 .133 .032 .932 .832 .732 .632 .532 .432 .332.232 .132 .031 .931 .831 .731 .631 .531 .431 .331 .231 .131.030 .930 .830 .730 .630 .530 .430.330 .230 .130 .029 .929 .829 .729 .629 .529 .429 .329 .229.129 .028 .928 .828 .728 .628 .528 .428 .328 .228 .128 .027.927 .827 .727 .627 .527 .427 .327 .227 .127 .026 .926 .826.726 .626 .526 .426 .326 .226 .126 .025 .925 .825 .725.625 .525 .425 .325 .225 .125 .024.924 .824 .724 .624 .524 .424 .324 .224 .124 .023 .923 .823.723 .623 .523 .423 .323 .223 .123 .022 .922 .822 .722 .622.522 .422 .322 .222 .122 .021 .921 .821 .721 .621 .521 .421.321 .221 .121 .020 .920 .820 .720 .620 .520 .420 .320 .220 .120 .019 .919 .819 .719 .619.519 .419 .319 .219 .119 .018 .918 .818 .718 .618 .518 .418.318 .218 .118 .017 .917 .817 .717 .617 .517 .417 .317 .217.117 .016 .916 .816 .716 .616 .516 .416 .316 .216 .116 .015.915 .815 .715 .615 .515 .415 .315.215 .115 .0
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
5000
Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points
No'
s of
Pup
ilsNational distribution of Key Stage 2 Points
for 600,000 pupils annually
12 18 24 30 36
Low Below Avge Abv HighOver 600,000
pupils take these tests each year. They are NEW tests on each occasion and provide the basis for
reviewing BOTH pupils’ later progress and schools’.
Over 600,000 pupils take
these tests each year. They are NEW tests on each occasion and provide the basis for
reviewing BOTH pupils’ later progress and schools’.
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Defining Pupil GroupsDefining Pupil Groups
For each year group, pupils can be placed in one of five KS2 groups defined by KS2 points score
For each year group, pupils can be placed in one of five KS2 groups defined by KS2 points score
Low Below Average Above High
15.0to
22.5
22.5to
25.5
25.5 to
28.5
28.5 to
30.5
30.5 to
36.0
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Using Pupil information: 2010UpdateUsing Pupil information: 2010Update
• Each year DFE provides data showing % of pupils achieving 5+ A*CEM passes in each of these groups:
Low Below Average Above High
3% 16% 48% 80% 95%
4% 18% 52% 83% 96%
3% 14% 43% 75% 94%
Girls
Boys
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What is ‘expected’ of pupils in each groupWhat is ‘expected’ of pupils in each group
3%3%
16%16%
48%48%
80%80%
95%95%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low Below Avge Above High
Boys
Mixed
Girls
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These frameworks are now accessible to all schoolsThese frameworks are now accessible to all schools
SSAT’s Data Enabler Service allows schools to:
• Review their latest progress
• Identify areas of strength and weakness
• Provide Subject Area evaluations
• Identify specific pupil groups and teachers
• Use the frameworks to ‘predict’ what performance to expect from the next round of GCSE exams
• Provide a starting point for official inspection reports and evaluations
• BUT WHAT DOESN’T IT DO ….??
SSAT’s Data Enabler Service allows schools to:
• Review their latest progress
• Identify areas of strength and weakness
• Provide Subject Area evaluations
• Identify specific pupil groups and teachers
• Use the frameworks to ‘predict’ what performance to expect from the next round of GCSE exams
• Provide a starting point for official inspection reports and evaluations
• BUT WHAT DOESN’T IT DO ….??
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Excitement Challenge Being ‘on the edge’
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•For over 50 years the main focus in schools has been on achieving ‘5 Good Passes’
•1951 ‘O levels’ introduced 5+ A to C Passes•1988 GCSE used 5+ A to C Passes
•1992 A* Grades awarded•2006 5+ A*CEM introduced
•2010 English Baccalaurate ‘appeared’•And what next ….??
•201X 5+ A*/A Passes
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Raising the bar …. for some
Clearly this indicator is NOT RELEVANT to ALL pupils - but is highly so for some
The next chart shows WHY this is necessary – and WHICH PUPILS
will be involved
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Over the last few years GCSE ‘success’ rates have risen dramaticallyOver the last few years GCSE ‘success’ rates have risen dramatically
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Low Below Average Above High
2004 2006 2008 2009 2010
7% 10%13% 21% 33%
26% 30% 36% 45% 57%
55% 60% 66% 72% 79%
81% 83% 85% 89% 93%
95% 96% 97% 97% 98%
‘Lower’ & ‘Average’
Groups have
improved rapidly.
Less opportunity for others to ‘do better’!
How do we continue to challenge?
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35.935 .835 .735 .635 .535 .435 .335 .235 .135 .034 .934 .834 .734.634 .534 .434 .334 .234 .134 .033 .933 .833 .733 .633 .533.433 .333 .233 .133 .032 .932 .832 .732 .632 .532 .432 .332.232 .132 .031 .931 .831 .731 .631 .531 .431 .331 .231 .131.030 .930 .830 .730 .630 .530 .430.330 .230 .130 .029 .929 .829 .729 .629 .529 .429 .329 .229.129 .028 .928 .828 .728 .628 .528 .428 .328 .228 .128 .027.927 .827 .727 .627 .527 .427 .327 .227 .127 .026 .926 .826.726 .626 .526 .426 .326 .226 .126 .025 .925 .825 .725.625 .525 .425 .325 .225 .125 .024.924 .824 .724 .624 .524 .424 .324 .224 .124 .023 .923 .823.723 .623 .523 .423 .323 .223 .123 .022 .922 .822 .722 .622.522 .422 .322 .222 .122 .021 .921 .821 .721 .621 .521 .421.321 .221 .121 .020 .920 .820 .720 .620 .520 .420 .320 .220 .120 .019 .919 .819 .719 .619.519 .419 .319 .219 .119 .018 .918 .818 .718 .618 .518 .418.318 .218 .118 .017 .917 .817 .717 .617 .517 .417 .317 .217.117 .016 .916 .816 .716 .616 .516 .416 .316 .216 .116 .015.915 .815 .715 .615 .515 .415 .315.215 .115 .0
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
5000
Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points
No'
s of
Pup
ilsNational distribution of Key Stage 2 Points
for 600,000 pupils annually
12 18 24 30 36
Low Below Avge Abv High
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35.935 .835 .735 .635 .535 .435 .335 .235 .135 .034 .934 .834 .734.634 .534 .434 .334 .234 .134 .033 .933 .833 .733 .633 .533.433 .333 .233 .133 .032 .932 .832 .732 .632 .532 .432 .332.232 .132 .031 .931 .831 .731 .631 .531 .431 .331 .231 .131.030 .930 .830 .730 .630 .530 .430.330 .230 .130 .029 .929 .829 .729 .629 .529 .429 .329 .229.129 .028 .928 .828 .728 .628 .528 .428 .328 .228 .128 .027.927 .827 .727 .627 .527 .427 .327 .227 .127 .026 .926 .826.726 .626 .526 .426 .326 .226 .126 .025 .925 .825 .725.625 .525 .425 .325 .225 .125 .024.924 .824 .724 .624 .524 .424 .324 .224 .124 .023 .923 .823.723 .623 .523 .423 .323 .223 .123 .022 .922 .822 .722 .622.522 .422 .322 .222 .122 .021 .921 .821 .721 .621 .521 .421.321 .221 .121 .020 .920 .820 .720 .620 .520 .420 .320 .220 .120 .019 .919 .819 .719 .619.519 .419 .319 .219 .119 .018 .918 .818 .718 .618 .518 .418.318 .218 .118 .017 .917 .817 .717 .617 .517 .417 .317 .217.117 .016 .916 .816 .716 .616 .516 .416 .316 .216 .116 .015.915 .815 .715 .615 .515 .415 .315.215 .115 .0
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
5000
Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points
No'
s of
Pup
ilsNational distribution of Key Stage 2 Points
for 600,000 pupils annually
12 18 24 30 36
Low Below Avge Abv High
‘More Able’ ?
28.5+ Ks2 Points
and above
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15.00 17.00 19.00 21.00 23.00 25.00 27.00 29.00 31.00 33.00 35.00
cvap2ap1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points Scores
for non-selective schools in 2008
Pupils’ Ks2 Points
Percentage
Pupils’ Key Stage 2 Points for GCSE 2010 classifying ‘More Able’ pupils
Pupils in ‘Above’ & ‘High’ Ks2 Groups: 40% in Non-
selective schools
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32.532.432.332.232.132.031.931.831.731.631.531.431.3
32.532.432.332.232.132.031.931.831.731.631.531.431.3
100
80
60
40
20
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
% A
chie
ving
5+
A*/
A P
asse
sGCSE 2010: 5+ A*/A Passes for 'More Able' Pupils
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32.031.531.030.530.029.5
32.031.531.030.530.029.5
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Average Ks2 Points for 'More Able' Pupils
% a
chie
ving
5+
A*/
A P
asse
s
01234567
Type
Comparing Schools' 5+ A*/A Outcomes
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‘Unpack’ this group for analysis‘Unpack’ this group for analysis
The FIVE GROUP framework used for earlier GCSE Performance evaluations suggests a way ahead:
Create a FIVE GROUP framework for these ‘More Able’ Pupils
This provides ways of exploring how well ‘More Able’ pupils have done in individual schools and clusters
Here’s how it’s done ….
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35.034.534.033.533.032.532.031.531.030.530.029.529.028.5
35.034.534.033.533.032.532.031.531.030.530.029.529.028.5
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Pupils' Key Stage 2 Points
Rankin
g o
f P
upil
s' K
s2 P
tsGrouping 'More Able' Pupils: 5 Groups based on Ks2 Pts
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Creating a framework for Progress amongst ‘More Able’ pupils
Creating a framework for Progress amongst ‘More Able’ pupils
Group M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Ks2 Pts 28.6 – 29.2
29.3 – 30.1
30.2 – 31.0
31.1 – 32.1
32.2 – 36.0
We can provide the numbers of pupils in each of these groups for YOUR SCHOOL’S last Y11 cohort from 2010.
You can also take this forward for your current Years 11 & 10 (with a bit of help from friends!)
What do we ‘expect’ from pupils like these?
How well did my school do? What are we looking for in 2011?
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But it’s the PUPILS’ results that really matterBut it’s the PUPILS’ results that really matter
The next chart shows how strongly MABLE pupils’ ‘starting points’ are related to their
chances of achieving A*/A grades
We’ve shown this for
5+ A*/A grades
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‘More Able’ Pupils achieving 5+ A*/A Passes‘More Able’ Pupils achieving 5+ A*/A Passes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
H1 H2 H3 H4 H5
5%10%
20%
33%
65%5+ A*/A Passes
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‘More Able’ Pupils in your schools‘More Able’ Pupils in your schools
Last year (2010) you had 1750 pupils in Y11 – of these just over 1000 were identified as ‘More Able’
Of these 409 obtained 5+ A*/A Passes
How does this compare with national expectations?
Are we doing as well as we could – and where are the issues that need to be faced?
What’s it like in MY school
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What happened in this Cluster in 2010?What happened in this Cluster in 2010?
1 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot
No’s 129 195 197 190 311 1022
5+A/A* 5% 10% 20% 33% 65%Result
s14 26 55 84 230 409
Expect
Difference + 8 + 6 + 16 + 21 + 28 +79
6 20
39 63 202 330
79 pupils (out of 1022) ‘better than expected’ +8%
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Example of how this works for a schoolExample of how this works for a school
?? M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot
No’s 12 23 38 27 51 141
5+A/A* 5% 10% 20% 33% 65%Result
s0 2 6 3 26 37
Expect
Difference - 1 0 0 - 3 - 7 - 14
1 2 6 9 33 51
14 pupils (out of 141) ‘less than expected’ – 10%
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Cluster schools’ PerformanceCluster schools’ Performance
No names – but this is what happened in 2010(Further information if you join the York Project!)
Over 10% MORE pupils gained 5+ A*/A than ‘expected’ 3 sch
About as many pupils gained 5+ A*/A ‘as expected’ 3 sch
More than 10% LESS pupils gained 5+ A*/A than ‘expected’ 1 sch
The actual results are: +23% +12% +11% +4% -2% -7% -11%
Which is which is obviously important – but confidential!
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The next slides show how these frameworks can be used in YOUR school
The next slides show how these frameworks can be used in YOUR school
The York Project uses these for two purposes:
First - to REVIEW last year’s 5+ A*/A outcomes
Then – using Teacher Assessments of current Y11 pupils – to PREVIEW next year’s likely results
The latter actions can highlight issues to be addressed (for pupils, subject areas and teachers) while there is still
time to remedy areas indicating ‘underperformance’
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Your school’s 5+ A*/A PassesYour school’s 5+ A*/A Passes
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot
No’s
5+A/A* 5% 10% 20% 33% 65%Result
s
Expect
Difference
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Your school’s A*/A English PassesYour school’s A*/A English Passes
ENG M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot
No’s
A/A* 8% 15% 25% 33% 60%
Results
Expect
Difference
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Your school’s A*/A Maths PassesYour school’s A*/A Maths Passes
MAT M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Tot
No’s
A*/A 7% 12% 25% 40% 66%
Expect
Difference
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50403020100-10-20-30-40-50
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
JVA Measure for each outcome for 'More Able' pupils
Ran
kin
g of
Sch
ool P
erfo
rman
ce
3+ A*/A5+ A*/A
A*/A EngA*/A MatA*/A Sci
JVA
JVA National Measure for 3+ A*/A 5+ A*/A & A*/A Eng Maths Sci
- Schools: + 10%
'Top' Quarter of
of Schools - 10%
'Bottom' Quarter
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Gaining A*/A Passes ….what thenGaining A*/A Passes ….what then
This is obviously encouraging for pupils and also for their schools – but the implications for
students’future career trajectories suggest this has an even greater importance for the nation.
In 2008 some 1077 pupils from these schools went on to A-level studies. Just under 800 of
these went to Barton Peveril or Peter Symonds Colleges and just under half of these (341
students) had 5 or more A*/A Grades at GCSE
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Gaining 3 A Level A*/A GradesGaining 3 A Level A*/A Grades
341 students who achieved 5+ A*/A GCSE Passes (2008 ) entered the local VI Form Colleges
103 of YOUR PUPILS achieved 3 A*/A Alevel Grades in 2010
Hampshire Colleges provide some of the largest numbers with 3 A*/A grades from ANY schools in the nation – more than schools like Eton and Charterhouse and better than many Grammars
This is one criterion for entry to ‘good’ Universities
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Gaining 3 A Level A*/A GradesGaining 3 A Level A*/A Grades
PS & BP Colleges 339 with 3 A’s from 1011 entries
Eton College 133 with 3 A’s from 334 entries
99% of students who gained 3 A’s had achieved 5+ A*/A Grades at GCSE
Clearly – helping GCSE pupils achieve 5+ A*/A passes is a KEY factor for the rest of their lives
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The vital importance of ‘More Able’ pupilsThe vital importance of ‘More Able’ pupils
The next steps in ‘Improvement’ are bound to include the outcomes of ‘More Able’ pupils
Expect much more emphasis on High Level outcomes
Very little has been done so far to prepare for this
Schools now have the opportunity of developing this work in partnership with the University of York
It offers exciting new ways of inspiring our young people
Professor David Jesson [email protected]
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Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’How pupils’ data provides both challenge
and opportunity
Professor David Jesson
University of York
Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’How pupils’ data provides both challenge
and opportunity
Professor David Jesson
University of York
Maximising Pupils’ Performance Maximising Pupils’ Performance