Download - HIDROLOGI-
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RINGKASAN KULIAH
HIDROLOGI
S1 TL -FTSL,ITB
Minggu 1 Sem 1 09/10
Oleh: Dr. Ir.Arwin ,MS
FTSL-ITB
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Kota
Kab.
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Variabel Acak/stokastik
Variabel Acak/stokastik
INPUT
OUTPUT
PROSES
Curah Hujan
(P)
Debit
(Q)
Kualitas Ruang DAS
Tata Guna Lahan
Topografi
Morfologi
Sifat Batuan
Sistem Dalam DAS Model Fisik Hidrologi
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Pola Distribusi Hujan
DAS
P
Q
Siklus Hidrologi
Konsep Dasar Hidrologi
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Water Supply General
KAWASAN PELAYANAN
(Kepuasan Konsumen )
Kualitas Air
Kwantitas Air
Kontinuitas air
Harga jual kompetitif
Laju Kebutuhan Air
RESPON TEKNOLOGI PENGOLAHAN AIR
Respon Teknologi Air Bersih
Biaya Operasi
SUMBER AIR BAKU
Fresh water (Gol A/B)
Randow variabel
Keandalan Sumber Air( Kuantitas & Kualitas Air )
11.bin -
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Besaran Input
Variabel Acak/Stokastik
Besaran Out put
Variabel Acak/Stokastik
Sifat tanah, batuan,
Morfologi, topografi
Tutupan lahan
PROSES
INPUT
Curah hujan)
Muka air tanah
Debit sungai
OUTPUT
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Ketersediaan Data Curah Hujan di DAS Jeneberang- waduk Bili-Bili SULSEL
Sheet1358123c1001249.18602752678400333.709928028667.4198560561298.5235878321813.6599097269d9.32260.8729052419200333.709928028631.103731776812.4443189949594.7452360504l3003192.32986928572678400315.551865888515.1363218949297.4372389504188.71099416k0.0010334114.7021593752592000315.551865888297.3079971108.26467776986.3524798228k 1060.001297577.7754562678400257.5681609474208.3137813504207.985671216634.384052592000257.568160947489.1234576858.8131250068726.035742678400148.6539985569.734126016814.385662678400148.6539985538.530551744931.03638752592000104.156890675280.44631641047.617742678400104.1568906752127.53935481611107.939025259200044.5617288279.777952812216.1869669231267840044.5617288579.0351722068134.867063008234.867063008319.265275872419.265275872540.2231582640.2231582763.769677408863.7696774089139.888976410139.888976411289.517586103412289.5175861034HEADA205.00650566991JanFebMaretAprilMeiJuniJuliAgustSeptOktNovDesJanB10.0235154083885871Input667.419856056631.103731776515.1363218949297.3079971208.313781350489.123457669.73412601638.53055174480.4463164127.539354816279.7779528579.0351722068667.419856056B2(0.00000604874644313077)NP91098754446789B30.0000000022361343794144TAIL103EFF0.98Sheet7DiskritDiskritisasi periode pengoperasian tiga bulananInputDiskritisasiNP(hm3)200100402010BervariasiTetap1813.661800.001800.001800.001800.0018109.336.25594.75600.00600.00600.00600.006006.676.25188.712002002002001904.006.25986.35100010009609809807.006.253583.473600.003600.003560.003580.003580.00k =0.001013Diskritisasi periode pengoperasian dua bulananInputDiskritisasiNP(hm3)200100402010BervariasiTetap1298.52120013001280130012909.506.25812.448008008408208108.506.25297.444003002803003006.006.25108.262001001201001104.006.25207.992002002002002105.006.25858.818009008408608607.506.253583.4736003600356035803580Diskritisasi periode pengoperasian satu bulananInputDiskritisasiNP(hm3)200100402010BervariasiTetap667.426007006806606709.006.25631.1060060064064063010.006.25515.146005005205205109.006.25297.314003002803002908.006.25208.312002002002002107.006.2589.1201008080905.006.2569.7301008080704.006.2538.53004040404.006.2580.4501008080804.006.25127.542001001201201306.006.25279.784003002802802807.006.25579.046006005605805808.006.253583.4736003600356035803580Diskritisasi periode pengoperasian setengah bulananInputDiskritisasiNP(hm3)200100402010BervariasiTetap333.714003003203403309.006.25333.714004003203403309.006.25315.5540030032032032010.006.25315.5540030032032032010.006.25257.572003002402602609.006.25257.572003002402602609.006.25148.652002001601601608.006.25148.652002001601401608.006.25104.16200100801001007.006.25104.162001001201001007.006.2544.56004040405.006.2544.56004040405.006.2534.87004040304.006.2534.87004040304.006.2519.2700020204.006.2519.27004020204.006.2540.22004040404.006.2540.22004040404.006.2563.7701008060606.006.2563.7701008060606.006.25139.892001001201401407.006.25139.892002001201401407.006.25289.522003002802802908.006.25289.522003003202802908.006.25358336003600356035803580K5005010015020025030034635040065.0070.1475.5581.2287.1593.3599.82106.00106.55113.54Debit NormalPenentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian tiga bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeStockHPVNPGain(hm3)(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap1813.66895.87353.0188.90214.3355.8947.269.336.25440.89295.35594.75895.87353.0186.34193.2953.3345.096.676.25300.75281.81188.71895.87353.0173.3079.5240.2934.064.006.25136.25212.90986.35895.87353.0165.000.0031.9927.057.006.25189.33169.04895.871067.22959.10k =0.001297Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian dua bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeStockHPVNPGain(hm3)(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap1298.52368.13235.3482.36159.7649.3427.819.506.25264.22173.83812.44368.13235.3490.32225.7957.3032.308.506.25274.56201.88297.44368.13235.3486.34193.2953.3330.066.006.25180.36187.87108.26368.13235.3477.71119.3344.6925.194.006.25100.77157.46207.99368.13235.3469.2241.1936.2020.415.006.25102.04127.55858.81368.13235.3465.000.0031.9918.037.506.25135.23112.69368.12517823331057.19961.29Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian satu bulananSumber : Proyek Pengembangan PSDA JeneberangInputTurbinTurbinVolumeStockHPVNPGain(hm3)(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap667.42667.42117.6771.0258.3038.0110.719.006.2596.4166.95631.10631.10117.6782.67162.4749.6614.0010.006.25139.9687.47515.14515.14117.6790.03223.4757.0116.079.006.25144.63100.43297.31297.31117.6792.09239.9759.0716.658.006.25133.20104.06208.31208.31117.6792.60244.0359.5816.797.006.25117.55104.9689.1289.1289.1289.40218.3956.3912.045.006.2560.1975.2469.7369.7369.7385.60187.0952.598.784.006.2535.1454.9038.5338.5338.5381.65153.6848.644.494.006.2517.9628.0680.4580.4580.4577.74119.5744.738.624.006.2534.4853.87127.54127.54117.6773.9985.8540.9811.556.006.2569.2972.18279.78279.78117.6771.1259.2438.1110.747.006.2575.1867.13579.04579.04117.6770.7255.4437.7010.638.006.2585.0166.42266.69969905571008.99881.67Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian setengah bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeStockHPVNPGain(hm3)(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap333.71214.7058.8467.6425.9634.624.889.006.2543.9130.50333.71214.7058.8470.3551.9237.335.269.006.2547.3532.88315.55214.7058.8476.20105.8443.186.0910.006.2560.8538.03315.55214.7058.8482.36159.7649.346.9510.006.2562.5843.46257.57214.7058.8485.59187.0452.577.419.006.2566.6846.31257.57214.7058.8488.90214.3355.897.889.006.2563.0149.22148.65214.7058.8489.61220.0656.597.988.006.2563.8049.85148.65214.7058.8490.32225.7957.308.088.006.2556.5350.47104.16214.7058.8490.24225.1657.228.067.006.2556.4550.40104.16214.7058.8490.16224.5357.158.057.006.2540.2750.3344.56214.7058.8488.24208.9155.227.785.006.2538.9148.6444.56214.7058.8486.34193.2953.337.515.006.2530.0646.9734.87214.7058.8484.19175.3251.177.214.006.2528.8545.0734.87214.7058.8482.07157.3449.066.914.006.2527.6543.2119.27214.7058.8479.87138.3446.866.604.006.2526.4141.2719.27214.7058.8477.71119.3344.696.304.006.2525.1939.3640.22214.7058.8475.4999.4242.475.984.006.2523.9437.4140.22214.7058.8473.3079.5240.295.684.006.2534.0635.4863.77214.7058.8471.2460.3538.225.396.006.2532.3233.6763.77214.7058.8469.2241.1936.205.106.006.2535.7131.89139.89214.7058.8467.5525.0834.534.877.006.2534.0730.42139.89214.7058.8465.918.9732.894.647.006.2537.0828.97289.52214.7058.8465.454.4932.444.578.006.2536.5728.57289.52214.7058.8465.000.0031.994.518.006.2536.0628.17214.70328125171008.32960.54V106.0Debit NormalPenentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian tiga bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap1813.661813.66353.01106.0071.5360.489.336.25564.30378.02594.75594.75353.01106.0071.5360.486.676.25403.42378.02188.71188.71188.71106.0072.5432.794.006.25131.15204.93986.35986.35353.01106.0071.5360.487.006.25423.38378.02k =0.0012971522.251338.97Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian dua bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap1298.521298.52235.34106.0071.5340.329.506.25383.06252.01812.44812.44235.34106.0071.5340.328.506.25342.73252.01297.44297.44235.34106.0071.5340.326.006.25241.93252.01108.26108.26108.26106.0072.6518.844.006.2575.36117.75207.99207.99207.99106.0071.8335.785.006.25178.92223.65858.81858.81235.34106.0071.5340.327.506.25302.41252.011524.421349.45Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian satu bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap667.42667.42117.67106.0071.5320.169.006.25181.45126.01631.10631.10117.67106.0071.5320.1610.006.25201.61126.01515.14515.14117.67106.0071.5320.169.006.25181.45126.01297.31297.31117.67106.0071.5320.168.006.25161.29126.01208.31208.31117.67106.0071.5320.167.006.25141.13126.0189.1289.1289.12106.0072.1215.405.006.2576.9896.2269.7369.7369.73106.0072.4412.104.006.2548.4075.6338.5338.5338.53106.0072.816.724.006.2526.8842.0080.4580.4580.45106.0072.2713.934.006.2555.7187.04127.54127.54117.67106.0071.5320.166.006.25120.96126.01279.78279.78117.67106.0071.5320.167.006.25141.13126.01579.04579.04117.67106.0071.5320.168.006.25161.29126.011498.261308.93Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian setengah bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap333.71333.7158.84106.0071.5310.089.006.2590.7263.00333.71333.7158.84106.0071.5310.089.006.2590.7263.00315.55315.5558.84106.0071.5310.0810.006.25100.8063.00315.55315.5558.84106.0071.5310.0810.006.2590.7263.00257.57257.5758.84106.0071.5310.089.006.2590.7263.00257.57257.5758.84106.0071.5310.089.006.2580.6463.00148.65148.6558.84106.0071.5310.088.006.2580.6463.00148.65148.6558.84106.0071.5310.088.006.2570.5663.00104.16104.1658.84106.0071.5310.087.006.2570.5663.00104.16104.1658.84106.0071.5310.087.006.2550.4063.0044.5644.5644.56106.0072.127.705.006.2538.4948.1144.5644.5644.56106.0072.127.705.006.2530.7948.1134.8734.8734.87106.0072.446.054.006.2524.2037.8134.8734.8734.87106.0072.446.054.006.2524.2037.8119.2719.2719.27106.0072.813.364.006.2513.4421.0019.2719.2719.27106.0072.813.364.006.2513.4421.0040.2240.2240.22106.0072.276.964.006.2527.8543.5240.2240.2240.22106.0072.276.964.006.2541.7843.5263.7763.7758.84106.0071.5310.086.006.2560.4863.0063.7763.7758.84106.0071.5310.086.006.2570.5663.00139.89139.8958.84106.0071.5310.087.006.2570.5663.00139.89139.8958.84106.0071.5310.087.006.2580.6463.00289.52289.5258.84106.0071.5310.088.006.2580.6463.00289.52289.5258.84106.0071.5310.088.006.2580.6463.001474.251308.93V65Debit NormalPenentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian tiga bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap1813.661813.66353.0165.0030.5325.819.336.25240.85161.34594.75594.75353.0165.0030.5325.816.676.25172.18161.34188.71188.71188.7165.0031.5414.264.006.2557.0289.10986.35986.35353.0165.0030.5325.817.006.25180.70161.34k =0.001013650.76573.12Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian dua bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap1298.521298.52235.3465.0030.5317.219.506.25163.49107.56812.44812.44235.3465.0030.5317.218.506.25146.28107.56297.44297.44235.3465.0030.5317.216.006.25103.26107.56108.26108.26108.2665.0031.658.214.006.2532.8351.30207.99207.99207.9965.0030.8315.365.006.2576.8095.99858.81858.81235.3465.0030.5317.217.506.25129.07107.56651.73577.54Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian satu bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap667.42667.42117.6765.0030.538.609.006.2577.4453.78631.10631.10117.6765.0030.538.6010.006.2586.0553.78515.14515.14117.6765.0030.538.609.006.2577.4453.78297.31297.31117.6765.0030.538.608.006.2568.8453.78208.31208.31117.6765.0030.538.607.006.2560.2353.7889.1289.1289.1265.0031.126.645.006.2533.2241.5269.7369.7369.7365.0031.445.254.006.2521.0132.8238.5338.5338.5365.0031.812.944.006.2511.7418.3580.4580.4580.4565.0031.276.034.006.2524.1037.66127.54127.54117.6765.0030.538.606.006.2551.6353.78279.78279.78117.6765.0030.538.607.006.2560.2353.78579.04579.04117.6765.0030.538.608.006.2568.8453.78640.79560.60Penentuan harga energi listrik tanpa adanya waduk periode pengoperasian setengah bulananInputTurbinTurbinVolumeHPVNPGain(m)(m)(GWh)BervariasiTetapBervariasiTetap333.71333.7158.8465.0030.534.309.006.2538.7226.89333.71333.7158.8465.0030.534.309.006.2538.7226.89315.55315.5558.8465.0030.534.3010.006.2543.0226.89315.55315.5558.8465.0030.534.3010.006.2538.7226.89257.57257.5758.8465.0030.534.309.006.2538.7226.89257.57257.5758.8465.0030.534.309.006.2534.4226.89148.65148.6558.8465.0030.534.308.006.2534.4226.89148.65148.6558.8465.0030.534.308.006.2530.1226.89104.16104.1658.8465.0030.534.307.006.2530.1226.89104.16104.1658.8465.0030.534.307.006.2521.5126.8944.5644.5644.5665.0031.123.325.006.2516.6120.7644.5644.5644.5665.0031.123.325.006.2513.2920.7634.8734.8734.8765.0031.442.634.006.2510.5016.4134.8734.8734.8765.0031.442.634.006.2510.5016.4119.2719.2719.2765.0031.811.474.006.255.879.1819.2719.2719.2765.0031.811.474.006.255.879.1840.2240.2240.2265.0031.273.014.006.2512.0518.8340.2240.2240.2265.0031.273.014.006.2518.0818.8363.7763.7758.8465.0030.534.306.006.2525.8126.8963.7763.7758.8465.0030.534.306.006.2530.1226.89139.89139.8958.8465.0030.534.307.006.2530.1226.89139.89139.8958.8465.0030.534.307.006.2534.4226.89289.52289.5258.8465.0030.534.308.006.2534.4226.89289.52289.5258.8465.0030.534.308.006.2534.4226.89630.58560.60 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Karakteristik Sumber Air
Randow variable Kejadian dan besaran Komponen Siklus Hidrologi (sumber air ) tidak menentu dalam proses waktuUrutan berturut -turut , sumber air dari rentang independent ke dependent : Air Hujan ,Air permukaan ,Air tanah dan mata air (Karakter air hujan lebih independent dari air permukaan atau air permukaan lebih dependent dari air hujan atau air tanah/mata air lebih dependent dari air permukaan). -
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Gamb. Fluktuasi Hujan Wilayah Mintakat Ciremai Utara
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Model Kontinu Hujan-Debit
Debit hasil peramalan dengan metode regresi linier ganda dapat mengikuti fluktuasi debit historis yang ada. Peramalan debit metode regresi linier ganda dapat digunakan sebagai alat untuk memperkirakan debit yang akan datang.
Metode Regresi Ganda -
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Data debit aliran minimum periode kemarau 1970-2003
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View Mintakat Ciremai ,Up Stream Sumber sumber Mata Air Mandirancan Cibulakan,Cikepel dan Cigorowong (Rando Bawagirang Minggu, 25 jul 04)
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Model Deterministik
Aliran Permukaan BebasB
Dx
R(t)
0
t
0
t
H(t)
Dx
B
H
Volume Kontrol
L
HULU
HILIR
B
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Kondisi alam dari ilustrasi tersebut kemudian disederhanakan untuk dapat dimodelkan menurut hipotesa Saint-Venant. Saluran dibuat tunggal dan prismatik rectangular dengan panjang L dan lebar B. (klik) Asumsi input aliran hanya berasal dari hulu, yaitu limpasan hujan sebagai kondisi batas hulu, dan output aliran berada di hilir yang berupa berbagai bentuk muara, misalnya laut, danau, dll yang memiliki parameter2 yang dapat menjadi kondisi batas hilir. (klik) Untuk menghitung pergerakan fluida, diperlukan volume kontrol yang dibuat dengan membagi panjang saluran ke dalam ruas-ruas dengan besar delta x. (klik) Apabila diambil satu ruas, maka diperoleh (klik) satu buah volume kontrol dengan panjang delta x, lebar B, dan tinggi sesuai ketinggian muka air atau H.
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Perhitungan Curah Hujan Rata-rata Wilayah
Metode Aljabar/Aritmatika
dengan :
= Curah hujan daerah (mm)
n = Jumlah titik-titik (stasiun-stasiun) pengamat hujan
R1, R2,, Rn = Curah hujan di tiap titik pengamatan
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Gambar Pembagian Wilayah Hujan dengan Metode Thiessen
dimana :
Ai = luas masing-masing poligon
Pi = tinggi hujan pada stasiun A
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dimana :
Pw= curah hujan wilayah
A1,A2,...An= luas bagian-bagian antara garis-garis isohiet
P1,P2,...Pn= curah hujan rata-rata pada bagian A1,A2,...An
Gambar Pembagian Wilayah Hujan dengan Metode Isohiet
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Q = C (P x A ) + b
Q = debit sungai, C = koefisien limpasan (run off), P = curah hujan, A = luas DAS, b = aliran dasar (base flow)
DS = P-R-E-B**-B*
R = Limpasan; E= Evaporasi;
B = Aliran Air Tanah
Keseimbangan Air di DAS
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Keseimbangan Masa Air Waduk
Keseimbangan masa : St+1 = St + Qin Qout - E
S : Variabel ditentukan
Qin : debit input air ( variabel acak) Prakiraan debit input ,simulasi debit air : Metode Kontinu dan metode Diskret (Arwin ,1992)
Q out : Keandalan air baku
E : evaporasi fungsi komponen meteorologi
T : Waktu ( time step)
Q out
Q In
E
Smaks ( 11 m)
Smin (+ 7 m )
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Model Kontinu
Metode Regresi Linier GandaDibangun berdasarkan korelasi antara dua variabel acak, yaitu :
* Stasiun pengamat hujan (P )
* Stasiun pengamat debit (Q )
Model dengan nilai koefisien Korelasi (R) terbesar dipilih sebagai model yang paling baik untuk membangun data debit.
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Korelasi 2 variabel
= Koefisien korelasi 2 variabel xy
= nilai Variabel X atau Ykei
= Simpangan baku variabel X dan Y
n = Jumlah populasi ,bila n
-
*
REGRESI LINAIR
Y = a + b . X
dimana:
n = jumlah pasangan observasi atau pengukuranb = koefisien regresi, kemiringan grafikr = koefisien korelasi ( -1 < r < 1 )
r < 0 korelasi berlawanan arah
r> 0 korelasi searah
-
*
Tabel 4.1 Penyusunan Koefisien Korelasi Antar Pos Hujan
NilaiP1P2P3P4PnP11 1nP2211 2nP3 31 321 3nP4 41 42 431 4nPm m1 m2 m3 m4 mn
( pengisian atau perpanjangan data hujan ) -
*
Tabel 4.2 Koefisien Korelasi Spartial Pos Hujan dan Debit
( Pembangunan Prakiraan Debit dgn Metode Kontinu
NilaiP1P2P3QtQt+1Qt-1P11P2 P2P11P3 P3 P1 P3 P21Qt Qt P1 Qt P2 Qt P31Qt+1 Qt+1 P1 Qt+1 P2 Qt+1 P3 Qt+1 Qt1Qt-1 Qt-1 P1 Qt-1 P2 Qt-1 P3 Qt-1 Qt Qt-1 Qt+11 -
*
4 Variabel
(Kuaterner)
3 Variabel
(Terner)
2 Variabel
(Biner)
R >>>
MODEL PEMBANGKITAN DEBIT
TERPILIH
Korelasi
Regresi Ganda
-
*
Persamaan Regresi Linier Model Biner :
x1 = r2x2 +
Koefisien Determinasi Dinyatakan sbb :
R = 12
2 = 1 R2
(Q1)P
(Q1)Q
Model 2 Variabel (Biner)
12
X1
X2
-
*
Persamaan Regresi Linier Model Terner :
x1 = r2x2 + r3x3 +
Koefisien Determinasi Dinyatakan sbb :
(Q1)PP
(Q1)QP
(Q1)QQ
Model 3 Variabel (Terner)
12
X1
X2
X3
13
23
-
*
Koefisien Korelasi Parsiil Dinyatakan sbbModel 3 Variabel (Terner) (Lanjutan)
-
*
Persamaan Regresi Linier Model Kuaterner :
x1 = r2x2 + r3x3 + r4x4 +
Koefisien Determinasi Dinyatakan sbb :
2 = 1 R2
= 1 + r22 + r32 + r42 2(r212 + r313 + r414) + 2(r2r323 + r2r424 + r3r434)
(Q1)PPP
(Q1)QPP
(Q1)QQP
(Q1)QQQ
Model 4 Variabel (Kuaterner)
X1
X3
X4
14
34
X2
12
23
24
24
-
*
Koefisien Korelasi Parsiil Dinyatakan sbb= 1 (232 + 242 + 342) + 22324 34
2 = 12(1- 342) 13(23 24 34) 14(24 - 23 34)
3 = 13(1- 242) 12(23 24 34) 14(34 - 23 24)
4 = 14(1- 232) 12(24 23 34) 13(34 - 23 24)
Model 4 Variabel (Lanjutan)
-
*
Analisis Korelasi & Regresi
Model Terpilih
R >>>
Model Hujan-Debit Model HePQQ(Q1)
-
*
Matrik
Perbandingan Model Pembangkitan Debit
Model Kontinu Model Diskrit Waduk SagulingDebit hasil peramalan dengan model kontinu dan model diskrit dapat mengikuti fluktuasi debit historis yang ada.
Elastisitas debit antisipasi terbaik Metode Diskrit Chain Markov.
Metode peramalan terpilih Pengelolaan Waduk Aktual
-
*
Korelasi & Regresi
Perbandingan Model Pembangkitan Debit
Model Kontinu Model Diskrit Waduk CirataDebit hasil peramalan dengan model kontinu dan model diskrit dapat mengikuti fluktuasi debit historis yang ada.
Elastisitas debit antisipasi terbaik Metode Regresi Linier Ganda.
Metode peramalan terpilih Pengelolaan Waduk Aktual
Metode Regresi Linier Ganda Model Heterogen Q(1)QQP
-
*
Kriteria Desain Air Baku Multisektor
Sumber: Modifikasi BMA ,Cipta karya -PU ,1994
Sumber Air Permukaan Kriteria disain Perencanan Air baku Debit Air Suksesif KeringDomestikIrigasiIndustri1 - 7 hariR=10 - 20 tahun15 - 30 hariR=5 tahun1 - 2 hariR=20 tahun -
*
Uji Chi-kuadrat
Penentuan distribusi Terpilih
Seleksi Data Debit Harian
Pengelompokkan Data Debit
(Durasi 1,2,7,15,30 dan 60 hari)
Pengurutan Data
Uji K-S
Penentuan distribusi Terpilih
Pembuatan Kurva Debit Andalan
Penentuan Debit Andalan 5, 10, 20, 50 tahun untuk berbagai durasi.
Perbandingan Debit Andalan dengan Kebutuhan Air
-
*
KAJIAN SUMBER AIR SUNGAI
Q = C (P.A)+ b
C= f( P,I,f, Tutupan lahan)
P : variabel bebas ( Randown variabel)
A : Luas tanggapan hujan
Q: variabel tergantung( Randown variabel)
b : aliran dasar ( tutupan lahan, batuan )
Diagram Alir Analisis Peluang Debit Air musim kering (Ekstrim Kering) Seleksi data & urutan data debit air 1,2,7,15,30 dan setengah bulanan kalender Pemilihan distribusi teoritis ( Normal, Gumbel dan log Person III) yang cocokdengan Uji Goodness-of-fit Hitung debit air minum Periode Ulang 5, 10, 20, 50 tahun dengan distribusi teoritis terpilih Debit air minimum dengan Periode Ulang 5,10,20 dan 50 tahunKurva peluang debit air minimum ekstrem keringKeandalan Debit Air BakuKawasan Hulu
Boundary Hilir
Q
Boundary Hulu
-
*
sebuah test yang menentukan tingkat kesesuaian antara distribusi sampel dengan distribusi teoritis.
Bila Fo(X) adalah suatu fungsi distribusi frekuensi kumulatif yang ditentukan atau distribusi kumulatif teoritis dan SN(x) merupakan frekuensi kumulatif sampel maka diharapkan dengan uji ini selisih antara Fo(X) dan SN(X) adalah sesedikit mungkin atau nilai dari Fo(X) mendekati nilai dari SN(X) yang masih dalam batas-batas kesalahan random. Sehingga kedua distribusi frekuensi tersebut bisa dikatakan identik.
Uji kecocokan Smirnov Kolmogorov, sering juga disebut uji kecocokan non-parametrik (non-parametrik test) karena pengujiannya tidak menggunakan fungsi distribusi tertentu. Prosedurnya adalah sebagai berikut:
TEST GOODNESS-OF-FIT
*
-
*
Analisis Peluang Debit
Untuk memahami karakteristik debit sebagai variabel acak, dituntut pencocokan distribusi teoritis tertentu pada nilsi-nilsi observasi acak yang ada (Chow, 1964).Jenis Distribusi yang banyak digunakan untuk menganalisis debit ekstrim kering, yaitu (Lindsley, 1969 dan Soewarno, 1995):
- Distribusi ekstrim tipe III (Weibull atau Gumbel tipe III)
Distribusi Log-Pearson tipe III
Distribusi Log-Normal
Uji Goodness-of-fit
Berfungsi untuk memilih fungsi distribusi yang sesuai dengan sampel dengan cara menentukan kesesuaian antara sampel dengan distribusi teoritis tertentu.
Ket: Penentu lain, Data
Distribusi Debit
Jenis DistribusiParameter SampelUji yang DigunakanDiskritDiketahui2DiskritDiperkirakan2KontiniuDiketahuiK-SKontiniuDiperkirakan2 -
*
Urutkan data (dari besar ke kecil atau sebaliknya) dan tentukan besarnya peluang dari masing-masing data tersebut.
2.Tentukan nilai masing-masing peluang teoritis dari hasil penggambaran data (persamaan distribusinya).
3. Dari kedua nilai peluang tersebut tentukan selisih terbesarnya antara peluang pengamatan dengan peluang teoritis. D = Maksimum [ Fo(Xm) SN(Xm)]
4. Berdasarkan tabel nilai kritis(Kolmogorov - Smirnov test) tentukan harga Do.
Apabila nilai D lebih kecil dari Do maka distribusi teoritis yang digunakan untuk menentukan persamaan distribusi dapat diterima, apabila D lebih besar dari Do maka distribusi teoritis yang digunakan untuk menentukan persamaan distribusi sampel tidak dapat diterima.
Langkah Langkah Test K -S.
-
*
Distribusi Debit
Distribusi Debit
Distribusi Normal
Distribusi Log-Normal
Distribusi Gumbel
Distribusi Log-Pearson III
-
*
Uji K-S
Uji Goodness-of-fit
Uji 2
Menetapkan suatu titik dimana terjadi simpangan terbesar antara distribusi teoritis dan sampel.
Mengukur perbedaan relatif antara
Frekuensi hasil pengamatan
Dengan frekuensi yang diharapkan
Dn = Maksimum IFo(X)-Sn(X)I
Dimana,
Dn: Penyimpangan Terbesar
Fo(X): Suatu fungsi distribusi
kumulatif yang ditntukan
Sn(X): Distribusi Kumulatif
Sampel
Dimana,
k: Jumlah variabel
Oi: Frekuensi hasil pengamatan
Ei: Frekuensi distribusi teoritis
n: jumlah data
Pi: Peluang dari distribusi teoritis
2 =
Distribusi Normal
Distribusi Log-Normal
Distribusi Gumbel
Distribusi Log-Normal
Distribusi Normal
Distribusi Log-Normal
Distribusi Gumbel
Distribusi Log-Normal
-
*
Uji Goodness-of-Fit X2
2
Grafik Distribusi Teoritis (expected)
Distribusi Frekuensi Data (observed)
-
*
Q (debit)
Distribusi Normal
P (Probabilitas)
Hasil Pengamatan
= 2
= Dn
2
5
8
frekuensi
No.Qf15.55226.55139.143413.501514.581618.481721.631824.981925.7421028.8611133.4311233.7311336.3311437.2021538.6311665.8011766.5611885.9211994.511 -
*
KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV
Uji Goodness-of-Fit
Kolmogorov-SmirnovGrafik Distribusi Frekuensi Teoritis
Distribusi Frekuensi Kumulatif Data
Dn
GRAFIK FREKUENSI KUMULATIF
108.unknown -
*
Grafik Debit Andalan Mata air Paniis
Chart1111112222277777151515151530303030306060606060TR 2 thnTR 5 thnTR 10 thnTR 20 thnTR 50 thnDurasi (hari)Debit (L/det)Grafik Debit air andalan mata air Paniiis652.7994442.2399310.1465189.079139.1467661.9494450.4728318.7062198.577850.6913672.2851441.5734307.6979192.203658.5503676.8207449.9796321.4623212.623989.2522681.9049464.6931344.074243.4942131.439743.1659.238596046615.415084999579.22258315538.47737738uji distribudiDistribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 1 Harino. datatahun1 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996460.3382.10.1000382.1-1.770.03840.06165.9458-1.920.02730.0727382.10.15880.14680.064421997382.1460.30.2000460.3-1.260.10300.09706.1318-1.220.11070.0893460.30.24620.21820.098331998568.6568.60.3000568.6-0.560.28610.01396.3431-0.430.33420.0342568.60.44380.35840.019141999649.3649.30.4000649.3-0.040.48270.08276.47590.070.52810.1281649.30.67980.49330.072852000719.4719.40.5000719.40.410.65890.15896.57840.460.67580.1758719.40.97610.62320.150162001819.8731.00.6000731.00.480.68590.08596.59440.520.69710.0971731.01.03550.64490.077972002789.5784.10.7000784.10.830.79610.09616.66460.780.78230.0823784.11.35420.74180.093382003731.0789.50.8000789.50.860.80570.00576.67140.810.78970.0103789.51.39090.75110.003592004784.1819.80.9000819.81.060.85500.04506.70910.950.82820.0718819.81.61750.80160.0440n9Dn =0.1589n9Dn =0.1758n91/ =0.0589478079jumlah5904.1 =0.05jumlah58.11 =0.05jumlah5904.1Ao =0.4400434936rata-rata656.0111D0 =0.375rata-rata6.4571D0 =0.375rata-rata656.0111Bo =21.4916617959varian23963.776varian0.07076varian23963.776S154.80238S0.2660SE154.80238 =16.9642CS-0.83CS-1.112S-0.83CK-0.603CK0.144CK-0.603Dn =0.1501 =724.1309D0 =0.375 =-2602.8295 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 2 Harino. datatahun2 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996467.5432.30.1000432.3-1.680.04686075540.00206.0690-1.780.03780.0482432.30.20130.18230.000521997432.3467.50.2000467.5-1.430.07640.07896.1473-1.440.07450.1251467.50.24490.21720.077431998615.6615.60.3000615.6-0.390.34800.10376.4226-0.270.39300.0275615.60.54440.41980.097341999653.9653.90.4000653.9-0.120.45130.08206.4830-0.010.49420.2559653.90.66490.48570.088452000728.4728.40.5000728.40.400.65530.04016.59090.440.67170.2025728.40.97340.62220.045362001828.7733.10.6000733.10.430.66730.00266.59730.470.68150.1488733.10.99670.63090.008372002795.6787.30.7000787.30.810.79180.00666.66860.780.78100.1095787.31.30710.72940.005382003733.1795.60.8000795.60.870.80810.00906.67910.820.79400.0690795.61.36220.74390.008592004787.3828.70.9000828.71.100.86490.00966.71990.990.83980.0334828.71.60270.79870.0054n9Dn =0.1037n9Dn =0.2559n91/ =0.0661jumlah6042.4 =0.05jumlah58.38 =0.05jumlah6042.4Ao =0.4371rata-rata671.3778D0 =0.375rata-rata6.4864D0 =0.375rata-rata671.3778Bo =21.0091varian20352.6920varian0.0552varian20352.6920S142.6629S0.23495S142.6629 =15.1217CS-0.804CS-1.037CS-0.804CK-0.652CK-0.23CK-0.652Dn =0.0973 =733.7412D0 =0.375 =-838.1797 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 7 Harino. datatahun7 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996570.4553.30.1000553.3-1.560.05980.01996.3159-1.620.05250.0440553.30.39470.32610.019021997553.3570.40.2000570.4-1.390.08220.05706.3463-1.420.07780.1209570.40.42900.34890.057931998689.6659.70.3000659.7-0.520.30130.09296.4919-0.450.32520.0494659.70.65430.48020.085641999659.7689.60.4000689.6-0.230.40900.04066.5361-0.160.43680.2242689.60.74930.52730.060452000741.2741.20.5000741.20.270.60690.02896.60820.320.62530.1483741.20.94130.60990.009662001833.7757.00.6000757.00.430.66480.06416.62940.460.67730.1099757.01.00840.63520.045872002817.9796.70.7000796.70.810.79160.07046.68050.800.78810.0832796.71.19430.69710.054382003757.0817.90.8000817.91.020.84570.00256.70680.970.83500.0831817.91.30500.72880.011792004796.7833.70.9000833.71.170.87930.04436.72591.100.86450.0200833.71.39300.75170.0392n9Dn =0.0929n9Dn =0.2242n91/ =0.1410jumlah6419.5 =0.05jumlah59.04 =0.05jumlah6419.5Ao =0.4069rata-rata713.2778D0 =0.375rata-rata6.5601D0 =0.375rata-rata713.2778Bo =15.9798varian10567.004varian0.02268varian10567.004SE102.79594S0.15058SE102.79594 =7.0927CS-0.533CS-0.694CS-0.533CK-1.062CK-0.853CK-1.062Dn =0.0856 =755.1011D0 =0.375 =-887.5583 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 15 Harino. datatahun15 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996590.9569.70.1000569.7-1.540.06190.05026.3451-1.610.05400.0314569.70.41640.34060.031321997569.7590.90.2000590.9-1.320.09280.02676.3816-1.350.08880.1083590.90.46210.37000.045731998692.4662.00.3000662.0-0.600.27480.07936.4953-0.540.29410.1037662.00.64760.47670.084241999662.0692.40.4000692.4-0.290.38640.01156.5402-0.220.41190.1724692.40.74390.52480.062652000741.9741.90.5000741.90.220.58530.04746.60920.270.60530.1194741.90.92600.60390.007162001835.4768.50.6000768.50.490.68660.06026.64450.520.69740.1060768.51.03830.64600.002072002824.0802.20.7000802.20.830.79670.12176.68740.820.79440.0408802.21.19680.69790.063582003768.5824.00.8000824.01.050.85340.05586.71411.010.84410.0654824.01.30930.73000.003092004802.2835.40.9000835.41.170.87840.02956.72791.110.86630.0434835.41.37180.74630.0059n9Dn =0.1217n9Dn =0.1724n91/ =0.1661jumlah6487 =0.05jumlah59.14 =0.05jumlah6487Ao =0.3967rata-rata720.7778D0 =0.375rata-rata6.5716D0 =0.375rata-rata720.7778Bo =14.2910varian9637.3844varian0.01986varian9637.3844SE98.17018S0.14092SE98.17018 =6.0194CS-0.442CS-0.588CS-0.442CK-1.245CK-1.053CK-1.245Dn =0.0842 =759.7208D0 =0.375 =-643.2284 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 30 Harino. datatahun30 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996603.0584.70.1000584.7-1.490.06760.08426.3711-1.560.05990.0114584.70.42990.34950.045621997584.7603.00.2000603.0-1.300.09690.00736.4020-1.330.09260.0883603.00.47210.37630.031331998693.2663.20.3000663.2-0.660.25390.06236.4970-0.610.26950.1439663.20.63470.46990.093841999663.2693.20.4000693.2-0.340.36560.01516.5414-0.280.38870.1485693.20.73160.51890.091152000747.4747.40.5000747.40.230.59120.04006.61660.280.61020.1074747.40.93640.60790.046862001837.2771.10.6000771.10.480.68510.09836.64790.510.69610.0545771.11.03950.64640.009072002826.4804.70.7000804.70.840.79890.17536.69050.830.79730.0225804.71.20120.69920.085682003771.1826.40.8000826.41.070.85720.08356.71711.030.84870.0618826.41.31630.73190.011592004804.7837.20.9000837.21.180.88140.06686.73011.130.87030.0434837.21.37660.74760.0094n9Dn =0.1753n9Dn =0.1485n91/ =0.1871jumlah6530.9 =0.05jumlah59.21 =0.05jumlah6530.9Ao =0.3882rata-rata725.6556D0 =0.375rata-rata6.5792D0 =0.375rata-rata725.6556Bo =12.8806varian8905.5703varian0.01789varian8905.5703SE94.36933S0.13376SE94.36933 =5.3441CS-0.366CS-0.499CS-0.366CK-1.401CK-1.253CK-1.401Dn =0.0938 =762.2895D0 =0.375 =-453.2395 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 60 Harino. datatahun60 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996611.9593.10.1000611.9-1.510.06610.07466.3853-1.570.05810.0163611.90.46810.3738-0.273821997593.1611.90.2000593.1-1.320.09390.00236.4165-1.340.08930.0932593.10.42740.3478-0.147831998701.0689.10.3000701.0-0.540.29380.06976.5354-0.490.31380.1374701.00.70620.5065-0.206541999689.1701.00.4000689.1-0.420.33610.02956.5525-0.360.35890.1763689.10.66970.4881-0.088152000772.0772.00.5000772.00.290.61410.04006.64900.340.63200.1114772.00.95970.6170-0.117062001860.8780.40.6000860.80.370.64580.10586.65980.420.66090.0465860.81.37590.7474-0.147472002850.1829.50.7000850.10.870.80700.17536.72080.860.80410.0186850.11.31940.7327-0.032782003780.4850.10.8000780.41.070.85860.05976.74541.030.84950.0716780.40.99390.62990.170192004829.5860.80.9000829.51.180.88120.09366.75781.120.86960.0234829.51.21510.70330.1967n9Dn =0.1753n9Dn =0.1763n91/ =0.1855jumlah6687.9 =0.05jumlah59.42 =0.05jumlah6687.9Ao =0.3889rata-rata743.1D0 =0.375rata-rata6.6024D0 =0.375rata-rata743.1Bo =12.9919varian9924.45varian0.0191varian9924.45SE99.62153S0.13821SE99.62153 =5.3919CS-0.372CS-0.516CS-0.372CK-1.32CK-1.153CK-1.32Dn =0.1967 =781.8396D0 =0.375 =-512.4335 =0.05Gemma:dah oke!!!Gemma:SN(X)=m/(n+1)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:dah di sortGemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:dah di sortGemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Hasil Uji DistribusiHasil uji K-S debit suksesif minimum (1, 2, 7, 15, 30 & 60 hari)Durasinormallog normalextreme value type 31 hari0.13660.25220.13782 hari0.10370.25590.09737 hari0.12880.22420.120015 hari0.12170.17240.084230 hari0.17530.14850.093860 hari0.17530.17630.5007Gemma:yang di pilih yang memiliki nilai terkecilPeriode ulangDEBIT EKSTRIM HARIAN MATA AIR PANIIS YANG DIMANFAATKAN PDAM (L/DET)DurasiPeriode Ulang (tahun)251020501652.7994442.2399310.1465189.079139.14672661.9494450.4728318.7062198.577850.69137672.2851441.5734307.6979192.203658.550315676.8207449.9796321.4623212.623989.252230681.9049464.6931344.074243.4942131.43960743.1659.238596046615.415084999579.22258315538.47737738grafikgrafik111112222277777151515151530303030306060606060TR 2 thnTR 5 thnTR 10 thnTR 20 thnTR 50 thnDurasi (hari)Debit (L/det)Grafik Debit Ekstrim Harian Minimum Paniiis652.7994442.2399310.1465189.079139.1467661.9494450.4728318.7062198.577850.6913672.2851441.5734307.6979192.203658.5503676.8207449.9796321.4623212.623989.2522681.9049464.6931344.074243.4942131.439743.1659.238596046615.415084999579.22258315538.47737738 -
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Perbandingan Kurva Debit Andalan air permukaan (Mata air Paniis & Sungai Cisadane)
Chart11111222277771515151530303030606060605 tahun10 tahun20 tahun50 tahunDurasi (hari)Debit (l/s)Kurva Debit Andalan S. Cisadane Pos Legokmuncang5.50000935224.63598900284.02577553323.43450990575.65187506934.74297375234.10366267053.48659562497.30304775826.48640031845.88130837715.26752833178.08713254887.3032750366.71356384776.10660637578.5640250897.72831765867.92572727686.4537548459.43818617398.57720456997.92572727687.2514886192Sheet1Tabel Debit Andalan Sungai Cisadane Pos BatubeulahBerdasarkan Uji x2Durasai KeringDistribusiPeriode Ulang (Tahun)(Hari)Terpilih510205015.50000935224.63598900284.02577553323.434509905725.65187506934.74297375234.10366267053.486595624977.30304775826.48640031845.88130837715.2675283317158.08713254887.3032750366.71356384776.1066063757308.5640250897.72831765867.92572727686.453754845609.43818617398.57720456997.92572727687.2514886192Sheet10000000000000000000000005 tahun10 tahun20 tahun50 tahunDurasi (hari)Debit (m3/hari)Kurva Peluang Debit Andalan Sungai Cisadane Pos Legokmuncang000000000000000000000000Sheet2Sheet3Chart1111112222277777151515151530303030306060606060TR 2 thnTR 5 thnTR 10 thnTR 20 thnTR 50 thnDurasi (hari)Debit (L/det)Grafik Debit Ekstrim Harian Minimum Paniiis652.7994442.2399310.1465189.079139.1467661.9494450.4728318.7062198.577850.6913672.2851441.5734307.6979192.203658.5503676.8207449.9796321.4623212.623989.2522681.9049464.6931344.074243.4942131.439743.1659.238596046615.415084999579.22258315538.47737738uji distribudiDistribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 1 Harino. datatahun1 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996460.3382.10.1000382.1-1.770.03840.06165.9458-1.920.02730.0727382.10.15880.14680.064421997382.1460.30.2000460.3-1.260.10300.09706.1318-1.220.11070.0893460.30.24620.21820.098331998568.6568.60.3000568.6-0.560.28610.01396.3431-0.430.33420.0342568.60.44380.35840.019141999649.3649.30.4000649.3-0.040.48270.08276.47590.070.52810.1281649.30.67980.49330.072852000719.4719.40.5000719.40.410.65890.15896.57840.460.67580.1758719.40.97610.62320.150162001819.8731.00.6000731.00.480.68590.08596.59440.520.69710.0971731.01.03550.64490.077972002789.5784.10.7000784.10.830.79610.09616.66460.780.78230.0823784.11.35420.74180.093382003731.0789.50.8000789.50.860.80570.00576.67140.810.78970.0103789.51.39090.75110.003592004784.1819.80.9000819.81.060.85500.04506.70910.950.82820.0718819.81.61750.80160.0440n9Dn =0.1589n9Dn =0.1758n91/ =0.0589478079jumlah5904.1 =0.05jumlah58.11 =0.05jumlah5904.1Ao =0.4400434936rata-rata656.0111D0 =0.375rata-rata6.4571D0 =0.375rata-rata656.0111Bo =21.4916617959varian23963.776varian0.07076varian23963.776S154.80238S0.2660SE154.80238 =16.9642CS-0.83CS-1.112S-0.83CK-0.603CK0.144CK-0.603Dn =0.1501 =724.1309D0 =0.375 =-2602.8295 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 2 Harino. datatahun2 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996467.5432.30.1000432.3-1.680.04686075540.00206.0690-1.780.03780.0482432.30.20130.18230.000521997432.3467.50.2000467.5-1.430.07640.07896.1473-1.440.07450.1251467.50.24490.21720.077431998615.6615.60.3000615.6-0.390.34800.10376.4226-0.270.39300.0275615.60.54440.41980.097341999653.9653.90.4000653.9-0.120.45130.08206.4830-0.010.49420.2559653.90.66490.48570.088452000728.4728.40.5000728.40.400.65530.04016.59090.440.67170.2025728.40.97340.62220.045362001828.7733.10.6000733.10.430.66730.00266.59730.470.68150.1488733.10.99670.63090.008372002795.6787.30.7000787.30.810.79180.00666.66860.780.78100.1095787.31.30710.72940.005382003733.1795.60.8000795.60.870.80810.00906.67910.820.79400.0690795.61.36220.74390.008592004787.3828.70.9000828.71.100.86490.00966.71990.990.83980.0334828.71.60270.79870.0054n9Dn =0.1037n9Dn =0.2559n91/ =0.0661jumlah6042.4 =0.05jumlah58.38 =0.05jumlah6042.4Ao =0.4371rata-rata671.3778D0 =0.375rata-rata6.4864D0 =0.375rata-rata671.3778Bo =21.0091varian20352.6920varian0.0552varian20352.6920S142.6629S0.23495S142.6629 =15.1217CS-0.804CS-1.037CS-0.804CK-0.652CK-0.23CK-0.652Dn =0.0973 =733.7412D0 =0.375 =-838.1797 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 7 Harino. datatahun7 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996570.4553.30.1000553.3-1.560.05980.01996.3159-1.620.05250.0440553.30.39470.32610.019021997553.3570.40.2000570.4-1.390.08220.05706.3463-1.420.07780.1209570.40.42900.34890.057931998689.6659.70.3000659.7-0.520.30130.09296.4919-0.450.32520.0494659.70.65430.48020.085641999659.7689.60.4000689.6-0.230.40900.04066.5361-0.160.43680.2242689.60.74930.52730.060452000741.2741.20.5000741.20.270.60690.02896.60820.320.62530.1483741.20.94130.60990.009662001833.7757.00.6000757.00.430.66480.06416.62940.460.67730.1099757.01.00840.63520.045872002817.9796.70.7000796.70.810.79160.07046.68050.800.78810.0832796.71.19430.69710.054382003757.0817.90.8000817.91.020.84570.00256.70680.970.83500.0831817.91.30500.72880.011792004796.7833.70.9000833.71.170.87930.04436.72591.100.86450.0200833.71.39300.75170.0392n9Dn =0.0929n9Dn =0.2242n91/ =0.1410jumlah6419.5 =0.05jumlah59.04 =0.05jumlah6419.5Ao =0.4069rata-rata713.2778D0 =0.375rata-rata6.5601D0 =0.375rata-rata713.2778Bo =15.9798varian10567.004varian0.02268varian10567.004SE102.79594S0.15058SE102.79594 =7.0927CS-0.533CS-0.694CS-0.533CK-1.062CK-0.853CK-1.062Dn =0.0856 =755.1011D0 =0.375 =-887.5583 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 15 Harino. datatahun15 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996590.9569.70.1000569.7-1.540.06190.05026.3451-1.610.05400.0314569.70.41640.34060.031321997569.7590.90.2000590.9-1.320.09280.02676.3816-1.350.08880.1083590.90.46210.37000.045731998692.4662.00.3000662.0-0.600.27480.07936.4953-0.540.29410.1037662.00.64760.47670.084241999662.0692.40.4000692.4-0.290.38640.01156.5402-0.220.41190.1724692.40.74390.52480.062652000741.9741.90.5000741.90.220.58530.04746.60920.270.60530.1194741.90.92600.60390.007162001835.4768.50.6000768.50.490.68660.06026.64450.520.69740.1060768.51.03830.64600.002072002824.0802.20.7000802.20.830.79670.12176.68740.820.79440.0408802.21.19680.69790.063582003768.5824.00.8000824.01.050.85340.05586.71411.010.84410.0654824.01.30930.73000.003092004802.2835.40.9000835.41.170.87840.02956.72791.110.86630.0434835.41.37180.74630.0059n9Dn =0.1217n9Dn =0.1724n91/ =0.1661jumlah6487 =0.05jumlah59.14 =0.05jumlah6487Ao =0.3967rata-rata720.7778D0 =0.375rata-rata6.5716D0 =0.375rata-rata720.7778Bo =14.2910varian9637.3844varian0.01986varian9637.3844SE98.17018S0.14092SE98.17018 =6.0194CS-0.442CS-0.588CS-0.442CK-1.245CK-1.053CK-1.245Dn =0.0842 =759.7208D0 =0.375 =-643.2284 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 30 Harino. datatahun30 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996603.0584.70.1000584.7-1.490.06760.08426.3711-1.560.05990.0114584.70.42990.34950.045621997584.7603.00.2000603.0-1.300.09690.00736.4020-1.330.09260.0883603.00.47210.37630.031331998693.2663.20.3000663.2-0.660.25390.06236.4970-0.610.26950.1439663.20.63470.46990.093841999663.2693.20.4000693.2-0.340.36560.01516.5414-0.280.38870.1485693.20.73160.51890.091152000747.4747.40.5000747.40.230.59120.04006.61660.280.61020.1074747.40.93640.60790.046862001837.2771.10.6000771.10.480.68510.09836.64790.510.69610.0545771.11.03950.64640.009072002826.4804.70.7000804.70.840.79890.17536.69050.830.79730.0225804.71.20120.69920.085682003771.1826.40.8000826.41.070.85720.08356.71711.030.84870.0618826.41.31630.73190.011592004804.7837.20.9000837.21.180.88140.06686.73011.130.87030.0434837.21.37660.74760.0094n9Dn =0.1753n9Dn =0.1485n91/ =0.1871jumlah6530.9 =0.05jumlah59.21 =0.05jumlah6530.9Ao =0.3882rata-rata725.6556D0 =0.375rata-rata6.5792D0 =0.375rata-rata725.6556Bo =12.8806varian8905.5703varian0.01789varian8905.5703SE94.36933S0.13376SE94.36933 =5.3441CS-0.366CS-0.499CS-0.366CK-1.401CK-1.253CK-1.401Dn =0.0938 =762.2895D0 =0.375 =-453.2395 =0.05Distribusi Peluang untuk Debit Suksesif Ektrim Kering 60 Harino. datatahun60 hariXSN(X)distribusi normaldistribusi log normaldistribusi gumbel tipe 3/extreme value type 3XZF0(X)Dln XkF0(X)DxyF0(X)D11996611.9593.10.1000611.9-1.510.06610.07466.3853-1.570.05810.0163611.90.46810.3738-0.273821997593.1611.90.2000593.1-1.320.09390.00236.4165-1.340.08930.0932593.10.42740.3478-0.147831998701.0689.10.3000701.0-0.540.29380.06976.5354-0.490.31380.1374701.00.70620.5065-0.206541999689.1701.00.4000689.1-0.420.33610.02956.5525-0.360.35890.1763689.10.66970.4881-0.088152000772.0772.00.5000772.00.290.61410.04006.64900.340.63200.1114772.00.95970.6170-0.117062001860.8780.40.6000860.80.370.64580.10586.65980.420.66090.0465860.81.37590.7474-0.147472002850.1829.50.7000850.10.870.80700.17536.72080.860.80410.0186850.11.31940.7327-0.032782003780.4850.10.8000780.41.070.85860.05976.74541.030.84950.0716780.40.99390.62990.170192004829.5860.80.9000829.51.180.88120.09366.75781.120.86960.0234829.51.21510.70330.1967n9Dn =0.1753n9Dn =0.1763n91/ =0.1855jumlah6687.9 =0.05jumlah59.42 =0.05jumlah6687.9Ao =0.3889rata-rata743.1D0 =0.375rata-rata6.6024D0 =0.375rata-rata743.1Bo =12.9919varian9924.45varian0.0191varian9924.45SE99.62153S0.13821SE99.62153 =5.3919CS-0.372CS-0.516CS-0.372CK-1.32CK-1.153CK-1.32Dn =0.1967 =781.8396D0 =0.375 =-512.4335 =0.05Gemma:dah oke!!!Gemma:SN(X)=m/(n+1)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:dah di sortGemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:dah di sortGemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Gemma:okGemma:okGemma:okGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:fixGemma:max(D)Gemma:max(D)Hasil Uji DistribusiHasil uji K-S debit suksesif minimum (1, 2, 7, 15, 30 & 60 hari)Durasinormallog normalextreme value type 31 hari0.13660.25220.13782 hari0.10370.25590.09737 hari0.12880.22420.120015 hari0.12170.17240.084230 hari0.17530.14850.093860 hari0.17530.17630.5007Gemma:yang di pilih yang memiliki nilai terkecilPeriode ulangDEBIT EKSTRIM HARIAN MATA AIR PANIIS YANG DIMANFAATKAN PDAM (L/DET)DurasiPeriode Ulang (tahun)251020501652.7994442.2399310.1465189.079139.14672661.9494450.4728318.7062198.577850.69137672.2851441.5734307.6979192.203658.550315676.8207449.9796321.4623212.623989.252230681.9049464.6931344.074243.4942131.43960743.1659.238596046615.415084999579.22258315538.47737738grafikgrafik111112222277777151515151530303030306060606060TR 2 thnTR 5 thnTR 10 thnTR 20 thnTR 50 thnDurasi (hari)Debit (L/det)Grafik Debit Ekstrim Harian Minimum Paniiis652.7994442.2399310.1465189.079139.1467661.9494450.4728318.7062198.577850.6913672.2851441.5734307.6979192.203658.5503676.8207449.9796321.4623212.623989.2522681.9049464.6931344.074243.4942131.439743.1659.238596046615.415084999579.22258315538.47737738 -
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ALAT UKUR THOMPSON & CIPOLETTI
Tahap pekerjaan pengukuran debit air
- Literatur alat ukur ambang tajam dan syarat berlaku formula
-Menentukan lokasi pengukuran debit air dan penafsiran dimensi alat ukur
- Pembuatan alat ukur
-Test pengukuran di lapangan
-Revisi alat ukur
-Penempatan alat ukur
-Pengukuran
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Sumber : Proyek Pengembangan PSDA Jeneberang
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2
r
=
3
3
r
=
4
4
r
=
0,609
0,688
0,77
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
P(Q1)HePP(Q1)HePQQ(Q1)He
Kawasan Hulu
Boundary Hilir
Q
Boundary Hulu
=
-
k
i
i
i
i
E
E
O
1
2
)
(
Variable:
gdk_Jan
, Distribution: Normal
Chi-Square test = 8.76148, df = 2, p = 0.01252
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
Category (upper limits)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Relative Frequency (%)
Grafik Debit air andalan mata air Paniiis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0102030405060
Durasi (hari)
Debit (L/det)
TR 2 thn
TR 5 thn
TR 10 thn
TR 20 thn
TR 50 thn
Kurva Debit Andalan S. Cisadane Pos Legokmuncang
0,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0102030405060
Durasi (hari)
Debit (l/s)
5 tahun
10 tahun
20 tahun
50 tahun
Grafik Debit Ekstrim Harian Minimum Paniiis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0102030405060
Durasi (hari)
Debit (L/det)
TR 2 thn
TR 5 thn
TR 10 thn
TR 20 thn
TR 50 thn
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
JanFebMarAprMeiJunJulAgstSeptOktNovDes
Bulan
hujan (mm/bl)
Rata-rata BulananRata-rata Tahunan
Gamb. 4.1. Data Debit Harian Minimum Sungai Cisadane Pos
Batubeulah
0,000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
19701975198019851990199520002005
Tahun
Debit ekstim minimum
(m3/det)
1 hari
2 hari
7 hari
15 hari
30 hari
60 hari
Gambar 3.4 : Penyelamatan Air & Tanah
C hutan =0,1-0,2
C budidaya = 0,5-0,6
C permukiman pedesaan
= 0,4-0,5
C Urban metro = 0,9-1,0
Neraca Air:
P = I + R
I/P + R/P= 1
Ik + C = 1
Gambar 3.5. : NERACA KESEIMBANGAN AIR TANAH
P = I +R , Ik+C =1
S = P R E-B** -B*
E = 1250 1500 mm/tahun(Evapotranspirasi
potensial)
S < 0 terjadi pada musim kemarau kering
S > 0 terjadi pada musim hujan basah
Kawasan pengunungan:
Hujan wilayah = 3000 mm
C= 0,5 maka I = 1500 dan E=1500 & S =0
.bila muka air diatas permukaan tanah
maka B * > 0 bila tidak B = 0 ( nihil)
Nilai C = nilai rata-rata
C=1-Ik = F (P,jenis tanahTutupan lahan)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
Bulan
Juta m
3
HISTORIS
NORMAL
REGRESI
MARKOV
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
Bulan
Juta m
3
HISTORIS
NORMAL
REGRESI
MARKOV
Pengukuran debit air
1.Pengukuran tak langsung (current meter)
2.Pengukuran langsung ambang tajam
-Alat Ukur Thompson
-Alat Ukur Cipoletti
Alat ukur debit tidak langsung (Current Meter)
Alat Ukur ambang tajam : Thompson & Cipoletti
Current Meter
Kecepatan air V didapatkan dari pengukuran Current Meter ( Propeller atau tipe Price)
dinyatakan sebagai berikut :
V = a + b.N
N = banyaknya perputaran propeller atau kerucut kecil (baling -baling) per-detik.
a = kecepatan awal yang diperlukan untuk mengatasi g esekan mekanis
a & b = merupakan konstanta yang didapat dari kalibrasi alat
Formula Alat Ukur Ambang Tajam
2/5
.hKQ
2
)09.0)(
12
4.8(
24.0
2.81
B
h
D
h
K
Alat Ukur Thompson
hghbQ 2..42,0
2/3
..86,1hbQ
Alat ukur Cipoletti
Gamb. Fluktuasi debit Mandirancan Kemarau 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
6/17/047/1/047/15/047/29/048/12/048/26/049/9/049/23/0410/7/0410/21/0411/4/0411/18/0412/2/0412/16/0412/30/0
Debit (Lt/dt)
Waktu
Cig-sedaIrigasi-Cig-SedaCibulakanCikepelRaksabaya