ACEEE 2006 Summit on Emerging Technologies for Energy EfficiencyOctober 26, 2006
Robert V. SteeleStrategies [email protected]
High-Brightness LED Applications and Market Trends
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Outline
IntroductionHigh-Brightness LED MarketsSolid-State LightingOutlook and Forecast
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Technology Scope
Will focus discussion on semiconductor-based inorganic LEDsOrganic LEDs (OLEDs) have potential in the long term to be used for lighting, but they are still in the R&D stage for this purposeHigh-brightness inorganic LEDs have been in the commercial market for 10 years and already have a foothold in the lighting market
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LED History
LEDs have been in commercial production for over 35 years (billions and billions sold)For 25 years mainly used as small indicator lamps and alphanumeric displaysBecause of limitations of materials technology (GaP and GaAsP):
Did not have full color spectrum (e.g. blue and green)Could not use in full sunlight outdoor conditions
High-brightness AlGaAs introduced in mid-1980s by HP and Stanley Electric
High brightness, but limited to 660 nm (deep red)
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LED History (cont.)
LED materials “revolution” occurred in the early-mid 1990sInGaAlP developed by HP and Toshiba produced high-brightness red, orange and yellow (ROY)InGaN developed by Nichia, Toyoda Gosei and Cree produced high-brightness blue and green (and white, using blue + phosphor)Devices fabricated with sophisticated production tools –metalorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) - rather than LPE and VPE used in conventional LEDsIn the past 10 years, performance of HB LEDs has improved dramatically, and prices have fallen steadily
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LED Performance History (Red)
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
+20x/Decade
Flux/Package
-10x/Decade
Cost/Lumen
Lumens or $/lumen
“Haitz’s Law”
Source: Roland Haitz
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HB LED Market Drivers
Full color spectrum, including whiteHigh visibility, including full sunlight conditionsLong lifetimes (10s of thousands of hours)Energy efficientCompactAutomated assemblyDigital addressing for displays and lighting
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Outline
IntroductionHigh-Brightness LED MarketsSolid-State LightingOutlook and Forecast
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HB LED Application Space
HB LEDMarket
Mobile Appliances
Signs and Displays
Automotive
Signals
Illumination
OtherIndicators, small displaysamusement, misc. other
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HB LED Market History
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
Revenue ($ Million)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CAGR = 42% (1995-2005)
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2005 Market
Market grew by 6% to $3.9 billionUnits grew by 24% to 23.6 billion
Dramatic slowdown from 37% growth in 2004, and 2001-2004 average of 46% per yearMost applications showed reasonable growth, but Mobile Appliance market stagnatedSevere pricing pressure for low-end products due to excess capacity: e.g. keypad backlights
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Recent Market History
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Revenue ($ Million)
Other
Illumination
Signals
Automotive
Signs/Displays
Mobile Appliances
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2005 Applications Breakout
Mobile Appliances
52%
Other12%
Signals2%
Illumi-nation
6%
Signs/Displays
14%
Auto-motive
14%
Total: $3.9 Billion
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Outline
IntroductionHigh-Brightness LED MarketsApplication TrendsSolid-State LightingOutlook and Forecast
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LED Illumination or “Solid-State Lighting”
Illumination includes applications in which LEDsare used to illuminate an object or surface
Not viewed directly (e.g. signs, signals)
Market is in early growth phaseHighly fragmentedMany companies making lighting productsNiche applications
Many non-standard, off-the-shelf productsApplications range from very small (e.g. flashlights, reading lamps) to multimillion dollar projects
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Illumination or “Solid-State Lighting” (cont.)
LEDs are much more expensive than conventional light sources, but ..
They can provide features not achievable with conventional light sources
Many applications driven by higher efficiency and longer lifetimes of LEDsMost applications are for colored lightingWhite light applications are growingThe goal of LED lighting is not just to replace light bulbs, but to provide additional value
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LED Lighting Applications (partial list)
ArchitecturalRetail displayHospitality (hotels, restaurants)EntertainmentAccent and decorativeSafety/securityMachine visionPool and spa
Consumer portable (flashlights, headlamps)Signage (channel letters)LandscapeOutdoor area lightingSolar-powered, off-gridResidentialMuseums
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LED Lighting Products
Philips Lighting
Permlight
Color Kinetics
Optiled
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LED Lighting - Hospitality
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LED Lighting – Contour Lighting and Channel Letters
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LED Lighting - Architectural
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LED Specialty Lighting
Machine VisionLandscape Lighting
Pool and SpaEntertainment
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LED Residential Lighting
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LED Lighting Market Development
Market is being developed by lighting systems companies targeting specific applications
Both large (e.g. Philips, Osram, GE) and small companies
Each application requires a unique approachSelling points for LEDs include:
High reliability/low maintenanceLong lifetimeCost competitive on life cycle basisEsthetics, quality of lightUnique solution to a lighting problemSatisfies regulatory requirements (e.g. Calif. Title 24)
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White LEDs for Lighting
Vast majority of white LEDs sold today use a blue LED chip + a “yellowish” phosphor to achieve white appearance Addition of red phosphor can improve white color spectrum (i.e. “warm” white)Newer, more sophisticated white lighting products are using RGB color mixing plus feedback and control to maintain, or change, white balance
Most efficient way to produce white
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RGB Color Mixing for White Light
TIR Systems LEXELTM
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Outlook for White LED Performance*
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Luminous Efficacy
(lumen/watt)
Cool W hiteW arm W hite
Incandes-cent
CFL
Fluorescent
*Commercially available LEDs
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Hurdles to be Overcome for Penetration of General Illumination
Lower cost, higher efficiency white LEDsStandards (e.g. definition of lifetime)Binning and color consistency issuesLighting industry understanding of unique properties of LEDs; customer acceptanceEstablish sales channels into traditional lighting applicationsIntegration of drivers, thermal management, optics, controls for “plug-and-play” solutions
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LED Lighting Market Evolution
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Market Size($ Billion)
Total "Lamp"MarketLED Lighting
Specialty Niches
BroaderAdoption
GeneralIllumination
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National Solid-State Lighting ProgramsUS Next Generation Lighting Initiative (NGLI) passed by Congress in 2005; funded at $20 M/yrJapan national program since 1998, continuingNational SSL initiatives underway in:
TaiwanSouth KoreaChina
Combination of government plus private efforts could make China the largest market for solid state lighting
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National Drivers for Solid-State LightingHuge potential for energy savings
Typically 20-25% of electricity is used for lighting
Potential annual energy cost savings is $10s-100s billion per countryReduced oil importsReduced CO2 emissionsTechnological leadership in a new industry
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Outline
IntroductionHigh-Brightness LED MarketsSolid-State LightingOutlook and Forecast
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Outlook for HB LEDs
Overall outlook for HB LEDs continues to be highly positive, in spite of recent slowdown due to Mobile Appliance saturationMarket will advance across a wide range of applications, including newer ones such as backlighting for LCD monitors and TVs, and automobile headlampsIllumination will be a major market driver
Projecting ~$1 billion in 2010
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HB LED Market Forecast
01,0002,0003,0004,000
5,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenue($ Million)
OtherIlluminationSignalsAutomotiveSigns/DisplaysMobile Appliances
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Thanks for your attention.