Separating Hindsight Bias from Priming
Hindsight Bias and Priming:Two Designs, Two ResultsRagav Kumar and Daniel M. Bernstein
Kite
Think about what percentage of people would be able tocorrectly identify the distorted word, assuming they hadnot seen the clear version first.Think about what percentage of people would be able tocorrectly identify the distorted word.Hindsight BiasInability to take nave perspective from before you received informationPrimingExposure to a stimulus affects response to a later stimulus
Just listen, for now.Think about what percentage of people would be able tocorrectly identify the distorted word.OverlapHindsight Bias stimulus might just be a prime
Difference in instructionsExperimentsExperiment 1: Between Subjects
Experiment 2: Within SubjectsMethod: Experiments 1Study PhasePriming: 0, 1, 3, 6 times
Test PhaseIgnorant IdentificationIgnorant EstimationHindsight Estimation FlashcardsHypothesesIgnorant estimates would increase as number of primes increased
Hindsight estimates would not increase with the number of primesExpected ResultsExperiment 1: Between SubjectsIgnorant EstimationHindsight EstimationIgnorant IdentificationHypotheses - RevisitedIgnorant estimates would increase as number of primes increased
Hindsight estimates would not increase with the number of primes
Experiment 2: Within SubjectsWithin Subjects replication of Experiment 1
Allows direct examination of Hindsight Bias and PrimingMethod: Experiment 2Priming: 0, 1, 3, 6 times
Test (Counter-balanced)Ignorant EstimationHindsight Estimation FlashcardsHypothesesGreater estimates overall in hindsight condition
Interaction between Hindsight Bias and primingExpected Results: ReplicationExperiment 2 Results (N=42)No Interaction?!Hypotheses - RevisitedGreater estimates in hindsight condition
Interaction between hindsight bias and priming
ConclusionsHindsight Bias is the same thing as Priming?Conflicting results
Study Design seems to be a factorLimitations and Follow-upsWhy is there a difference between designs?Methodological Issues
Follow-up: Improved Re-run
Questions?
FluencyEase of processing information
Perceptual
Conceptual
Results Between Subjects, Words (Full)Results Between Subjects, NonwordsResults Within Subjects, Nonwords (N=38)