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Assessing the effects of freshwater inflows
and other key drivers on the population
dynamics of blue crab and white shrimp
using a multivariate time-series modeling
framework
Dr. Edward J. Buskey
Dr. Lindsay P. Scheef
Dr. Jianhong Xue
Sara Smith
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• Compose a review of literature examining blue crab and white
shrimp populations
• Assess the drivers of blue crab and white shrimp population
dynamics using multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models
— Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Coastal Fisheries monitoring data
Project Goals
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Project Timeline
Tentative timeline Accomplishments
2014 Apr-Jul Compose annotated bibliography Outline structure for review
2014 Aug-Dec Complete annotated bibliography Begin literature review report
2015 Jan-Mar Continue composition of literature review report
2015 Apr-Aug
Complete final literature review Present results at final workshop Submit final report Submit manuscript for publication
Literature review
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Project Timeline
Tentative timeline Accomplishments
2014 Apr-Jul Acquire and prepare datasets for model application
2014 Aug-Dec
Meet with data managers and analysts
Continue to prepare datasets for model application
Construct and assess preliminary models
2015 Jan-Mar Select and apply final models to data
Compose data analysis report
2015 Apr-Aug
Prepare final report Present results at final workshop
Submit final report Submit data and annotated R code
Data analysis
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Literature review
Methods
Sara
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Next abundance
value
Constant
Influence of each species
Influence of other factors
= + + +
Error
X t + 1 = A + BX t + CU t + E t
MAR-1 Model
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X t + 1 = A + BX t + CU t + E t
MAR-1 Model
Species 1 2 3 … p 1 … q
1 b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
2 b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
3 b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
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Conceptual
Hampton et al. 2006
Interaction webs from MAR-1 analysis
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Hampton et al. 2006
Conceptual MAR-1
Interaction webs from MAR-1 analysis
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Data type Source
Species abundance time-series TPWD Coastal Fisheries monitoring program
Water quality parameters
TPWD Coastal Fisheries monitoring program
Mission-Aransas NERR System-Wide Monitoring Program
Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network
Meteorological data
Mission-Aransas NERR System-Wide Monitoring Program
Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network
NOAA National Climatic Data Center
Rain gauge data U.S. Geological Survey
River flow gauge data U.S. Geological Survey
Climate oscillation indices NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Along-shore current patterns Texas Automated Buoy System
Commercial landing data Marine Aquatic Products Reports (TPWD)
Data
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Gill net Data
(1975 – 2013)
TPWD Survey Data
Bag seine Data (1976 – 2013)
Otter trawl Data
(1982 – 2013)
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Trawl Data Yearly Means
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Trawl Data Yearly Means
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Trawl Data Yearly Means
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Trawl Data Yearly Means
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Trawl Data Yearly Means
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Blue Crab trawl data
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Blue Crab trawl data
Log-transform
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Blue Crab trawl data
Log-transform
Z-score
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Blue Crab trawl data
Log-transform
Z-score
Z-score w/ seasonal trend
removal
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MAR-1 model B
lue
cra
b
Species 1 2 3 … p 1 … q
1 b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
2 b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
3 b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
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MAR-1 model B
lue
cra
b
Species 1 2 3 … p 1 … q
1 b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
2 b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
3 b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
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MAR-1 model B
lue
cra
b
Species 1 2 3 … p 1 … q
1 b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
2 b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
3 b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
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Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Co
mm
erc
ial
La
nd
ing
MAR-1 model R
ed
dru
m
Bla
ck
dru
m
Sh
ee
ps
he
ad
Sp
ott
ed
sea
tro
ut
Te
mp
era
ture
S
ali
nit
y
Blu
e c
rab
Variates
Co-variates
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MAR-1 model
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
Blu
e c
rab
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
Blue crab
Red drum River
Discharge
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Blu
e c
rab
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
Blue crab
Red drum River
Discharge
MAR-1 model
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
-b
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Blu
e c
rab
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
Blue crab
Red drum River
Discharge
MAR-1 model
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
+b
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Blu
e c
rab
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
Blue crab
Red drum River
Discharge
MAR-1 model
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
+c
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Blu
e c
rab
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
Blue crab
Red drum River
Discharge
MAR-1 model
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
-c
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Blu
e c
rab
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
Blue crab
Red drum River
Discharge
MAR-1 model
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
-c
+c -b
+b
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Model results
• Interactions at different time lags
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
-c
+c -b
+b
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Model results
• Interactions at different time lags
• Indirect effects
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
-c
+c -b
+b
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Blu
e c
rab
Riv
er
Dis
ch
arg
e
Re
d d
rum
Blue crab
Red drum River
Discharge
MAR-1 model
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
-c
-b
+b
Indirect effects
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Model results
• Interactions at different time lags
• Indirect effects
• System stability under different conditions
Species Blue crab Red drum Black drum … p Discharge … q
Blue crab b1,1 b1,2 b1,3 … b1,p c1,1 … c1,q
Red drum b2,1 b2,2 b2,3 … b2,p c2,1 … c2,q
Black drum b3,1 b3,2 b3,3 … b3,p c3,1 … c3,q
… … … … … … … … …
p bp,1 bp,2 bp,3 … bp,p cp,1 … cp,q
Species Environmental
-c
+c -b
+b