Download - How Not To Be Wrong
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When Am I Going To Use This?
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The Missing Bullet Holes
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Linearity
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Inference
The dead salmon study
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Expectation
If ________ is exciting, you are doing it wrong.
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RegressionTriumph of Mediocrity vs. Galton’s Ellipse
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Existence
More people want tax cut.
But no category can be cut
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Election
The American Way: Bush Wins
But More people prefer Gore
Borda’s RuleScore 2,1,0
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Borda’s Rule
Score 2,1,0
Solution: Instant Run-of
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Australian and VermontInstant Run-off
Lef Right
Center
American way: W
Instant Run-of: M
Head-to-Head: K
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There is no such thing as public opinion!
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How Not to Be Wrong?
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Just Listen to YourWife!