‘How to deliver clean and secure power and set an example of global relevance’
Mike Farley
10.2.2009Scottish Engineering /UNITE conference
Page 2
Company update – Doosan Babcock and Doosan Heavy
• Doosan Babcock Energy Limited is a subsidiary of Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction of South Korea, part of the Doosan Group, and a market leader in gas, coal, nuclear power generation and desalination
• The company will offer Pre, Post combustion and Oxyfuel carbon capture and advanced supercritical boilers
• Doosan Babcock Energy has been designated the Doosan global Centre of Excellence and R+D Centre for Boilers (including Clean coal and CCS)
Nuclear Thermal Turbine & Generator
Desalination Casting & Forging Construction
PostCombustionDoosan Babcock offers HTC Purenergy amine capture technology to its global customer base in the UK.
OxyCoalTM 2
40MW pilot
in UK
R+D Plus Project developed after discussions in Korea and Glasgow between SDI and Doosan Heavy
Scottish Executive support to accelerate the growth of the R&D Centre, stretch the breadth of the R&D carried out allow more speculative, longer-term work than otherwise possible ensure Renfrew is the HQ and main hub
Project duration is 3-4 years, commencing August 2008 Project value £10M, New products and services for sustainable
power generation markets (UK, Europe and global) Major contribution to the Scottish energy R+D scene Main focus is Carbon dioxide capture
Doosan Babcock R+D Plus
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1960 1980 2000 2020
35
40
45
50
55
30
Supercritical Boilers
Sub Critical Boilers
Plant efficiency
% NCV
Year
50+
50 – 55%
Doosan BabcockASC
46%
Meri PoriHemweg
New Chinese Orders
42%
Chinese fleet 38%
OlderPlants
(Lower CO2
Emissions)
38%
32%
UK
fleet
Abatement of CO2 by efficiency improvement of Pulverised Coal Plant
(-23%)
(-29%)
Best Available Advanced Supercritical Technology being supplied now
EON 50+ project at Wilhelmshaven being tendered now
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International Test Centre (ITC) for CO2 Capture - World Leader in CO2 Capture and Enhanced Oil Recovery
Doosan Babcock partnership with HTC PurenergyDoosan Babcock partnership with HTC Purenergy
ITC - Natural Gas flue gas capture Centre Coal flue gas demonstration - Test Facilities at Boundary Dam
CCS1000 Modular DesignCCS1000 Modular Design
2008 Demonstration at SV Minerals - 50MW, includes 2008 Demonstration at SV Minerals - 50MW, includes new solvent (RS1), new packing material strategy, steam reduction
Absorption Column, 14 ft-6 in ID x high 119 ft
Stripper Column, 12 ft-6 in ID x 77 ft high
In September 2008, Doosan Babcock signed an agreement with HTC Purenergy of Canada to licence the company’s technology for post-combustion capture of CO2.
Doosan Babcock will offer the technology to its customer base in the UK, Europe, the Americas and China and will take advantage of the series of demonstration projects in which HTC Purenergy are involved
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OxyCoal 2 - Demonstration of OxyCoalTM combustion system
• £7.4M project• Convert Doosan Babcock’s full-scale burner test facility to
oxyfuel firing• Oxygen supply
• Flue gas recycle system (fans, ducts, cooler, heater, etc.)
• Instrumentation
• Design and build full-scale utility OxyCoalTM burner (40MW)• Derived from air-firing experience, CFD modelling and
Oxyfuel R+D
• Demonstrate a full-scale utility OxyCoalTM burner• Flame stability, combustion efficiency, emissions, flame
shape, and heat transfer characteristics as function of %CO2 recycle and excess oxygen
• Start-up, shut down, transition from air to oxyfuel, load change
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OxyCoalTM 2 Project
The substantial contributions of:
• the Prime Sponsor
• Sponsors
• University participants
are acknowledged by Doosan Babcock
Vattenfall
Page 8
Background
• Deteriorating generation margin with major closures only a few years away (sooner in Scotland) and no adequate plans for replacements
• Focus on large percentage of renewables seems to neglect issues due to intermittency
• Clean coal and CCS alongside renewables can provide security of supplies and near zero emissions, at no greater cost
• …..and represent a major economic opportunity for Scotland
Page 9
CCS offers an opportunity for economic benefit on the scale of the oil industry
• Global market for thermal power plant is 1041 Bn $ to 2015, 75% coal• Global CCS market will be £100Bn/year• Lord Oxburgh (former chairman of Shell) “CCS will be an industry as big as the oil industry
world wide”
• Scotland is well placed to benefit– Oil and gas industry
– Edinburgh and Heriot Watt Universities and BGS Scotland
– Consultancies including Mott Macdonald, SKM
– Doosan Babcock for power plant boilers and carbon capture
Page 10
The scale of the challenge for target emissions reductions (UKCCC)
UK CCC Page 38, Figure 2.1
Page 11
UKCCC Report Nov2008Overall judgement on global deployment of electricity technologies
Page 54, Figure 2.10
Page 12
Global power generation abatement in 2050 (IEA BLUE Map scenario)
Page 71, Figure 2.23
80 CCS power projects/year
(eg 28 x 800MW coal and 52 x 500MW gas) from about 2020
Page 13
Implications for Policy - UK and Scotland
• Consenting process to require all large combustion plant/fossil fuel power plant emitting more than 1Mt CO2/yr to be built capture-and-storage-ready
• Seek international agreement to make CCR mandatory for both coal and gas
• UK CCS regulations in place by 2010• Three coal and one gas large scale CCS demonstration projects in UK, operational
by 2015 (an appropriate share to meet EU, G8 and IEA objectives and maintain a leadership position for UK industry) funded from EU 300M EUAs and auction revenues
• Develop strong incentives by 2010, in addition to the carbon price, to support a second tranche of CCS projects (to be committed by 2015 and operational by 2020)
• Development of a strategy to implement CCS on all CCR plants (coal and gas) on fast- track timescales– eg enabling legislation for an EPS of 150g/kwh for all plants (new and CCR) emitting above
a tonnage threshold
– must also recognise need to retain some older coal and gas power plants on the system to provide back up
Page 14
A commensurate ambition for CCS in Scotland
• Two CCS demonstrations in Scotland by 2015, one coal and one gas• 2.4GW advanced supercritical coal with CCS to replace Longannet by 2020• 1.2 GW CCGT/CHP with CCS to replace Peterhead by 2020/5• And one other 1GW plant to replace Torness - to be decided around 2018
• Delivers a power generation mix for Scotland that – Would be near- zero emissions by 2025
– Ensures security of supplies (gas issues) and firm power on demand (cf wind intermittency)
– Sets an example that other major users of fossil fuels could copy
• All should use CCS technologies from Scottish companies capable of exploiting the global market and generating economic benefit and employment here on a scale comparable to the oil and gas industry
• Create many thousands of skilled jobs in construction and operation of CCS plants
Page 15
CCS and Renewables in Scotland - an Alternative Scenario “Carbon Clean”
• We have modelled the electricity system in Scotland and looked at how to achieve– decarbonisation by 2025
– security of supplies
– firm generation in response to demand
– and a more economic mix
• Principles– Sufficient capacity in Scotland to meet peak demand and export clean electricity
– Utilise existing grid and power plant sites
– Kick-start CCS as a basis for a major new industry in Scotland
– Set an example to the world
• Alternative Scenario “Carbon Clean” compared to Existing plant mix and the two Scenarios explored by SKM in their report of Nov 2008 for the Scottish Government
2010…… Carbon Clean Scenario…. 2030 SKM, 2030Existingmix
Page 16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
SKM BaseCase
SKMDominant
Renewables
2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2030 2030
GW
Imports
Coal
Gas
Coal CCS
Gas CCS
Tidal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Nuclear
Storage
Hydro
Generation Capacity Installed
Carbon Clean Scenario SKMExisting
Page 17
Intermittency of wind generation – impact has to be recognised
• SKM report:
“Combined Scottish wind generation output will be 10% or less for around 20% of the time (ie one in five winters on average will experience wind power levels of 10% or less at times of peak demand)”
So for one winter in five or one day in five we must completely (90% or more) backup the wind capacity with firm power
• Turner UKCCC report also recognises that renewables will need full backup by firm power but requires this to be clean
• And the backup power generation must be able to follow daily variations in demand and balance the wind generation
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-50% in 5 hours
Almost zero wind generation on the coldest day of the winter
Page 19
Sources: VdN, UCTE
Flexible fossil power needed to provide instant power to balance intermittency of renewables and variations in demand
(GW)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6
Time (h)
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
GW
)
Other Power
Germany,
March 18th, 2007
20
40
60
0
10
30
50
70
Wind Power
Best Case Scenario
for Wind generation in a day
12 18 240
Page 20
Sources: VdN, UCTE
Flexible fossil power needed to provide instant power to balance intermittency of renewables and variations in demand
(GW)
Time (h)
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
GW
)
Wind Power
Other Power
Germany,
April 13th, 2007
Average day for Wind generation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6 12 18 240
20
40
60
0
10
30
50
70
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Sources: VdN, UCTE
Flexible fossil power needed to provide instant power to balance intermittency of renewables and variations in demand
(GW)
Time (h)
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
GW
)
Wind Power
Other Power
Germany,
June 11th, 2007Worst case scenario
for Wind generation in a day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6 12 18 240
20
40
60
0
10
30
50
70
Flexible fossil power needed to provide instant power to balance intermittency of renewables and variations in demand
Page 22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
SKM BaseCase
SKMDominant
Renewables
2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2030 2030
GW
Imports
Gas
Coal
Gas CCS
Coal CCS
Tidal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Nuclear
Storage
Hydro
De-rated generation capacity vs peak winter demand
Peak Demand- Average Winter
Carbon Clean Scenario SKMExisting
Page 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
SKM BaseCase
SKMDominant
Renewables
2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2030 2030
TW
h
Imports
Coal
Gas
Coal CCS
Gas CCS
Tidal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Nuclear
Storage
Hydro
Annual Electricity Generation
Scottish demand
Future demand
Exports
Page 24
Emissions Intensity for Overall System
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
SKM BaseCase
SKMDominant
Renewables
2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2030 2030
g/k
Wh
Carbon Clean Scenario SKMExisting
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Annual Emissions from Power Generation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
SKM BaseCase
SKMDominant
Renewables
2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2030 2030
Mt
Gas CCS
Gas
Coal CCS
Coal
Existing Carbon Clean Scenario SKM
- 90%
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Demonstration Phase Requires Funding to Fill the Economic Gap
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
€/tonne CO2
Ec
on
om
ic
ga
p
DEMO PHASE (~4GW)
EARLY COMMERCIAL PHASE
(~20 GW installed capacity)
MATURE COMMERCIAL PHASE
(~ 80 GW installed capacity)
Demonstration phase:CCS not economically viable. Public contribution necessary for some portion
Carbon price forecast; impact of new policy not included
Estimated costs of CCS Commercial phase:CCS expected to be commercially viable, as costs and CO2 price reach similar levels
26
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Average Cost of Electricity Generation (COE)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
SKM BaseCase
SKMDominant
Renewables
2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2030 2030
£/M
Wh
Carbon Clean Scenario SKMExisting
Page 28
Early opportunities for CCS Demonstration – are we ready?
• UK CCS competition –underway. SP are one of three short listed bidders• EU programme for 10-12 demos funded from 300M EUAs from the new entrant reserve
– Call in late 2009
• EU proposed economic regeneration package has earmarked 250M euro for UK CCS– Early spend sought if package approved
• EU voluntary agreement to spend 50% of Auction revenues on climate change mitigation and adaptation
• RDAs, especially Yorkshire Forward, are developing CCS schemes• Conservatives policy statement “The low carbon economy – security, stability and green
growth” proposes to fund– Pipeline networks
– 5000MW of CCS Demonstration projects
– CCS costs for additional coal power plant
• We need more urgent action within Scotland to prepare for these opportunities
Page 29
Tomorrow’s WorldHow to deliver clean and secure power and set an example of global relevance
Doosan Babcock are committed to development and global implementation of
cleaner power plants - clean coal, clean gas, nuclear and renewables as rapidly as the
market allows
We can set an excellent example to other countries which will build fossil fuel power
plant if we insist on building all coal and gas plants capture and storage ready in parallel
with actions to demonstrate, and then implement, properly regulated and monitored
CCS
Thank you for your attention