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Idaho Weather, Climate and Water Supply Outlook
IDWR Briefing, March 10th 2011Jay Breidenbach, NOAA National Weather Service
National Snow Movies
Recent Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies
Forecast for next 10 days – continuation of stormy pattern
La-Nina Status
Three Month Climate Outlook
Water Supply Numbers and Idaho Spring Flood Outlook
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Snow Water Equivalent February 8th, 2011
Snow Water Equivalent February 8th, 2011
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Snow Water Equivalent March 11th, 2011
Snow Water Equivalent March 11th, 2011
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After the January Thaw
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Temperature and Precipitation at Boise
Temperature and Precipitation at Boise
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Perceptible Water ImagePerceptible Water Image
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Thursday - March 11th IR Satellite Imagery / 500 mb heights
Thursday - March 11th IR Satellite Imagery / 500 mb heights
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Thursday, March 10th (Morning) 500 mb heights / model precipitation
Thursday, March 10th (Morning) 500 mb heights / model precipitation
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Thursday, March 10th (Noon)500 mb heights / model precipitation
Thursday, March 10th (Noon)500 mb heights / model precipitation
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Thursday, March 10th (evening)Thursday, March 10th (evening)
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Saturday, March 11thSaturday, March 11th
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Sunday, March 12thSunday, March 12th
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Sunday, March 13thSunday, March 13th
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Monday, March 14thMonday, March 14th
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Tuesday, March 15thTuesday, March 15th
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Wednesday, March 16thWednesday, March 16th
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Thursday, March 17thThursday, March 17th
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Total Precipitation Ending Thursday, March 17thTotal Precipitation Ending Thursday, March 17th
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Mature La-Nina Beginning to Weaken
Mature La-Nina Beginning to Weaken
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Cross Section Along EquatorCross Section Along Equator
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SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 6 March 2011
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 6 March 2011
Most CFS ensemble forecasts predict the a return to near normal sea-surface
conditions by mid-summer 2011.
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Temperature Precipitation
U. S. Seasonal OutlooksMarch 2011
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Temperature Precipitation
U. S. Seasonal OutlooksMarch - May 2011
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Near Normal Water Supply Expected in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011
Near Normal Water Supply Expected in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011
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Average Spring Flood Threat in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011
Average Spring Flood Threat in Most Areas of Idaho in 2011
Exceptions:
Large snow pack and Forecast River Volumes have slightly elevated flood risk in:
-Portions of Upper Snake River Basin
-Bear River Basin
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Significant Rises expected on Lower Elevation Streams
Significant Rises expected on Lower Elevation Streams
Weiser River
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Malheur RiverMalheur River
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Owyhee RiverOwyhee River
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Payette River at LowmanPayette River at Lowman
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Current Information on WebCurrent Information on Web
www.weather.gov/boise
www.nwrfc.noaa.govwww.nwrfc.noaa.gov