WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
What is climate change?
II. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences
Timothy Carter
Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Outline
1. Definitions
2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts
4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities
5. Responding to climate change
6. Synthesis
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Outline
1. Definitions
2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts
4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities
5. Responding to climate change
6. Synthesis
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Impacts - The effects on natural and human systems of
extreme weather and climate events and of climate
change.
Adaptation - The process of adjustment to actual or
expected climate and its effects. In human systems,
adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit
beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human
intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate
and its effects.
Vulnerability - The propensity or predisposition to be
adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety
of concepts and elements including sensitivity or
susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and
adapt.
Some definitions
IPCC (2014, Glossary)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
IAV research community is extremely diverse
(disciplines, scales of analysis)
Wide differences in approaches and in the role of
scenarios in such studies
Unifying theme: treatment of the consequences
of climate change
: Impacts adaptation and
vulnerability assessment
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Outline
1. Definitions
2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts
4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities
5. Responding to climate change
6. Synthesis
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Detection - The process of demonstrating that climate or
a system affected by climate has changed in some
defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for
that change.
Attribution - The process of evaluating the relative
contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or
event with an assignment of statistical confidence.
Attribution of observed impacts in the WGII AR5 generally
links responses of natural and human systems to
observed climate change, regardless of its cause.
Some more definitions
IPCC (2014, Glossary)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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IPCC (2013)
Observed surface temperature change 1901-2012
based on one global dataset. White areas have
insufficient data. + signs indicate significant trends
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
So what impacts have been detected?
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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In recent decades, changes in climate have caused
impacts on natural and human systems on all
continents and across the oceans.
Evidence of climate-change impacts is strongest and
most comprehensive for natural systems. Some impacts
on human systems have also been attributed to climate
change, with a major or minor contribution of climate
change distinguishable from other influences.
Headline statement in the IPCC AR5
IPCC (2014)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Glaciers are retreating globally
Source: Oerlemans
EEA (2004)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Vernagt glacier, Austria
Most, though not all glaciers are
also retreating in Europe
Source: Oerlemans
EEA (2004) EEA (2012)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Maximum ice cover extent in the
Baltic Sea (1719/20 - 2010/11)
EEA (2012); data from J. Vainio, Finnish Meteorological Institute
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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EEA (2012); data from E. Kuusisto, SYKE
Observed change in ice cover duration on
Lake Kallavesi, Finland, 1833-2011
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27, 1980-2009
EEA (2012)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
EEA (2012)
Change in the growing season (number of frost-free
days per year) during the period 1975–2010
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Mean sowing dates for potato in Finland, 1965-1999
Upper line: latest sowings; lower line: earliest sowings Potato
29/4
4/5
9/5
14/5
19/5
24/5
29/5
3/6
8/6
13/6
18/6
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Da
y
Hildén et al. (2005)
Kaukoranta and Hakala (2008) FINADAPT
IPCC (2014)
Global patterns of impacts at various scales in recent
decades attributed to climate change Coloured symbols: categories of attributed impacts and contribution of climate
change (filled = major; open = minor). Stacked bars: Confidence in attribution
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Outline
1. Definitions
2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts
4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities
5. Responding to climate change
6. Synthesis
Characteristics of different approaches to CCIAV assessments
Carter et al. (2007)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Conceptualising risk for the AR5
IPCC (2014)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Vulnerability assessment
Common focus: developing and mapping
indicators
Vulnerability is a function of:
• exposure
• sensitivity
• adaptive capacity
Schröter et al. (2005)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Norway
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Exposure of Norwegian
agriculture to climate change
(by municipality)
Defined as a function of changes
(2030–2050 relative to 1980–2000) in:
- spring and autumn rainfall
- spring and autumn frost/thaw days
- length of the growing season
- average winter snow depth
Projections from RegClim
O’Brien et al. (2006)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Adaptive capacity of
Norwegian agriculture
by municipality
Defined as a function of:
- socioeconomic sensitivity
(% population involved in agriculture)
- economic factors (per capita income,
state transfers per capita, employment
prognoses)
- demographic factors (age structure of
work force, migration rates, %
dependents in the population)
O’Brien et al. (2006)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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O’Brien et al. (2006)
Adaptive capacity Exposure
Vulnerability
is a function of:
and
www.iav-mapping.net/U-C-IAV/
Carter et al. (2014)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Assessment of future impacts
Four categories:
• Analogues
• Experimental simulation of impacts
• Modelling of biophysical and economic impacts
• Integrated assessment
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Analogues
Observed or reconstructed information that might
serve as an analogue for future climatic conditions
and their impacts taken from:
Other regions - spatial analogues
Previous time periods - temporal analogues
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Some present day spatial analogues
of the GISS 2 x CO2 climate
Parry and Carter (1988)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Williams et al. (2007)
Nearest match of 21st-century climate at each location
to 20th-century climate at all other locations. High
values indicate 21st-century climates with no good
20th-century analogues Novel (no analogue) climates
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Nearest match of 20th-century climate at each location
to 21st-century climate at all other locations. High
values indicate 20th-century climates with no good
21st-century analogues Disappearing climates
Williams et al. (2007)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Spatial analogues
Advantages:
Observing local adaptation to climate
Identifying key climate thresholds
Effective communication tool
Disadvantages:
Not related to greenhouse gas forcing
May be physically implausible
No appropriate analogues may be available
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Temporal analogues
Three types:
1. Palaeoclimatic analogues
2. Instrumentally-based analogues
3. Event-driven analogues
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
1. Palaeoclimatic analogues
Three main periods:
Pliocene (3.3 - 3.0 million years BP)
Eemian interglacial (125,000 years BP)
Mid-Holocene (6 - 10,000 years BP)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Advantages:
Physically plausible - actually occurred
Similar magnitudes of change to those predicted for ~2100
Disadvantages:
Variables may be poorly resolved in space and time
Related to orbital variations not greenhouse gas forcing
1. Palaeoclimatic analogues
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Climate during periods or composite years from the
historical climate record that may serve as an
analogue of future conditions
Types:
Warm periods (e.g. the Dust Bowl years in USA)
Warmest years (composite)
Regression based techniques
2. Instrumentally-based analogues
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Example: Differences in England and Wales
rainfall between warm and cool periods
1934-1953minus
1901-1920
1968-1987minus
1901-1920DJF -0.06 -0.03
MAM -0.37 0.11
JJA -0.27 -0.44
SON -0.41 0.29
Annual -0.05 -0.02
Differences are in standard deviation units
Hulme and Jones (1988)
Arnell et al. (1990)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Example: Differences in average annual
runoff (%) between warm and cool periods
1934-1953minus
1901-1920
1968-1987minus
1901-1920
Eden -5 -7
Eden -3 -6
Exe -1 3
Tees 2 -10
Tyne 4 4
Wensum -8 -8
Wharfe -3 8
Wye -3 0Wensum
Arnell et al. (1990)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Advantages:
Physically realistic changes
Rich, well-resolved, internally consistent variables
Data readily available
Disadvantages:
Not necessarily greenhouse gas forced
Climate changes usually quite small
Suitable analogues may not be available
2. Instrumentally-based analogues
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Past impact-relevant climate or weather events
Types:
climate events identified as extreme meteorologically (e.g.
windstorms, droughts)
climate events identified on the basis of anomalous impacts
(e.g. eroding winds, ice storms, ENSO)
climate events serving as benchmarks for
impacts/adaptation (e.g. 100-year flood, 1-in-10 drought)
3. Event-driven analogues
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Example: Historically mild winters as analogues of
future skiing conditions in the Northeast USA
Snow conditions
Length of ski season by size of resort
Demand and operating profit by size of resort
Dawson et al. (2009)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Advantages:
Physically realistic
Rich, well-resolved, internally consistent variables
Data readily available
Impacts/adaptation-relevant
Disadvantages:
Not necessarily greenhouse gas forced
May be unsuitable as analogues of future events (e.g.
unique, non-climate factors different)
3. Event-driven analogues
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Observing the behaviour of systems in an environment
artificially created to simulate the conditions anticipated
under a future changed climate and atmospheric
composition (informed by model projections)
Experiments
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Long et al. (2006)
FACE experiment with soybean,
University of Illinois, USA
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Relative effect of CO2 concentration on wheat grain yields (%) in
experiments. Current ambient CO2 concentration is set to 1
Olesen, (2001)
Relative CO2 concentration
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Rela
tive y
ield
(%
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Pot experiment
Field experiment
Mean response
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Simulating the response of an exposure unit to
climate change, based on a knowledge of the main
causal mechanisms determining the sensitivity of a
system to climate
Types of models:
Statistical/static models (e.g. plant geography)
Dynamic models (soils, plant growth, disease)
Modelling of biophysical impacts
Carter and Mäkinen (2011)
Examples of biophysical impact models applied in recent studies (1)
Examples of biophysical impact models applied in recent studies (2)
Carter and Mäkinen (2011)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Köppen climate classification zones
Jylhä et al. (2010); see climateguide.fi
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Simulated (eight crop models) and observed time course of total
above-ground biomass for rainfed wheat at Müncheberg in 1994
Palosuo et al. (2011)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Kovats st al. (2014), after Lung et al. (2013)
Forest fire risk in Europe for two time periods:
baseline (left) and 2041–2070 (right),
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Smith and Stephenson (2013)
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Optimal September navigation routes for hypothetical open
water (blue) and ice reinforced (red) ships seeking to cross the
Arctic Ocean in two future periods under two RCP scenarios
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Source: Watkiss and Hunt (2010)
Approaches for economic assessment of
climate change impacts and adaptation
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Exploring linkages and feedbacks between global
socio-economic and technological drivers,
greenhouse gas emissions, climate change,
biophysical impacts and economic impacts across
multiple scales and/or sectors
Integrated assessment approaches
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Uncertainties in impact model projections
Model uncertainties
Input data used for calibration
Parameter uncertainties (within-model)
Structural uncertainties (between model)
Red cross: standard HadSM3 climate projection; default CATCHMOD version
Changes in median flow simulated with a hydrological model
(CATCHMOD) when model parameter uncertainties are combined with
the climateprediction.net (CP.net) ensemble of climate model projections
New et al. (2007)
Light blue curve: standard HadSM3 climate projection; 100 CATCHMOD versions
Changes in median flow simulated with a hydrological model
(CATCHMOD) when model parameter uncertainties are combined with
the climateprediction.net (CP.net) ensemble of climate model projections
New et al. (2007)
Black curves: each climate projection; 100 CATCHMOD versions
Changes in median flow simulated with a hydrological model
(CATCHMOD) when model parameter uncertainties are combined with
the climateprediction.net (CP.net) ensemble of climate model projections
New et al. (2007)
Dark blue curve; default CATCHMOD version; 449 climate projections
Changes in median flow simulated with a hydrological model
(CATCHMOD) when model parameter uncertainties are combined with
the climateprediction.net (CP.net) ensemble of climate model projections
New et al. (2007)
Green curves: each CATCHMOD version; 449 climate projections
Changes in median flow simulated with a hydrological model
(CATCHMOD) when model parameter uncertainties are combined with
the climateprediction.net (CP.net) ensemble of climate model projections
New et al. (2007)
Red curve: all possible combinations
Changes in median flow simulated with a hydrological model
(CATCHMOD) when model parameter uncertainties are combined with
the climateprediction.net (CP.net) ensemble of climate model projections
New et al. (2007)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Simulated winter wheat yield from eight crop models
(M1–M8), ensemble mean (Mean) and observed (Obs)
Model runs for eight sites in Europe
N = number of growing seasons with
observed yields
Whiskers: min & max yields
Vertical dashed lines: observed min,
median and max yields
Source: Palosuo et al. (2011)
Observed
yields
Multi-model
mean yields
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Uncertainties in impact model projections
Model uncertainties
Input data used for calibration
Parameter uncertainties (within-model)
Structural uncertainties (between model)
Projection uncertainties
Model sensitivity/robustness
Scenario assumptions (climate and non-climate)
Scenario application (e.g. number; downscaling methods)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Projecting climate alone is not sufficient
Socio-economic changes
Land-use and land-cover change
Other environmental changes
Sea-level rise
Climate change
Co
nsis
ten
cy
Re
fere
nce
co
nd
itio
ns
Vulnerability, exposure to stimuli and adaptive capacity
Cross cutting
Inte
ractions &
feedbacks
Carter et al. (2001)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Scenarios for impact assessment
Scenarios of climate, socioeconomic development,
land use, other environmental factors
Earlier studies used IPCC scenarios (IS92 and SRES)
New scenarios framework (RCPs/SSPs) developed
independent of IPCC
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Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)
O'Neill et al. (2014)
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Examples of narrative scenarios: SSPs
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Global population and GDP in 2050
and 2100 under different SSPs
Scenario data from IIASA (2012); Source: Hinkel et al., 2014
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van Vuuren et al. (2014)
RCP/SSP scenario matrix architecture
RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway
SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway
RCP
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Outline
1. Definitions
2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts
4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities
5. Responding to climate change
6. Synthesis
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Eight key risks* of climate change (1)
i. Death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying
coastal zones and small island developing states and other
small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and
sea level rise
ii. Severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban
populations due to inland flooding in some regions
iii. Extreme weather events leading to breakdown of
infrastructure networks and critical services such as
electricity, water supply, and health and emergency
services
iv. Mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat,
particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those
working outdoors in urban or rural areas
* Identified with high confidence IPCC (2014)
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v. Food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked
to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability
and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban
and rural settings
vi. Loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient
access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced
agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and
pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions
vii. Loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and
the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide
for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities
in the tropics and the Arctic
viii. Loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems,
biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and
services they provide for livelihoods
Eight key risks* of climate change (2)
* Identified with high confidence IPCC (2014)
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1. Unique and threatened systems. These include ecosystems
and cultures
2. Extreme weather events. Climate-change-related risks from
extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and
coastal flooding,
3. Distribution of impacts. Risks are unevenly distributed and are
generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in
countries at all levels of development.
4. Global aggregate impacts. Risks relating to global aggregate
economic impacts
5. Large-scale singular events. Physical systems or ecosystems
that may be at risk of abrupt and irreversible changes
Five reasons for concern
IPCC (2014)
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A global perspective on climate-related risks (assumes medium levels of exposure and vulnerability)
Oppenheimer et al. (2014)
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Dependence of risk associated with a Reason for
Concern (RFC) on the level of climate change and
exposure and vulnerability of society (schematic)
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Outline
1. Definitions
2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts
4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities
5. Responding to climate change
6. Synthesis
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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What options are available to
respond to climate change?
© Lawrence Moore
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
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Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions in order to prevent dangerous climate
change
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Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions in order to prevent dangerous climate
change
Mitigation alone is not enough. The earth is
already committed to some climate warming
Mitigation and Adaptation
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Commitment to future temperature rise
IPCC (2007)
~+0.6°C
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Hadley Centre (2006)
Commitment to future sea-level rise
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions in order to prevent dangerous climate
change
Mitigation alone is not enough. The earth is
already committed to some climate warming
Mitigation and Adaptation
Adaptation is the alteration of activities in order
to avoid or minimise the consequences of
climate change
Coping range and risk of exceedance
Based on Willows and Connell, (2003)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Some adaptation measures and their limitations
Kovats st al. (2014)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Key risks from climate change in Europe and the potential for
reducing risk through mitigation and adaptation for the present,
near-term (2030–2040), and longer term (2080–2100)
Kovats st al. (2014)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Selected published cost estimates for planned
adaptation in European countries.
Kovats st al. (2014)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Status of national adaptation strategies and
national adaptation plans in European countries
EEA. (2014)
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Outline
1. Definitions
2. Detection and attribution of observed impacts
3. Methods for evaluating potential future impacts
4. Emerging risks and key vulnerabilities
5. Responding to climate change
6. Synthesis
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
Synthesis
• In recent decades, changes in climate have caused
impacts on natural and human systems on all
continents and across the oceans IPCC (2014)
• There is a diversity of methods for assessing
future climate change impacts and their
uncertainties
• Eight key risks of future climate change are
identified in the IPCC AR5 with high confidence,
spanning sectors and regions
• Mitigation is required to reduce the most adverse
long-term impacts, but adaptation is also essential
to deal with unavoidable climate change
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
IPCC (2013)
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
WHO Collaborating Centre Course: Climate Change, Weather and Human Health
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Finland, 27-29 October 2014 Carter, Lecture II
End of Part 2