Hispanic Trends Project
Hispanic Trends Project
Immigration to the U.S.:Myths, Trends, Turning Points & the New RealityJeffrey S. PasselSenior Demographer
Dean’s Distinguished Lecture Series
University of Texas at San Antonio, College of Public Policy
San Antonio, TX—14 November 2013
Hispanic Trends Project
Myth and Reality
• Immigration is an All-Time High– Yes & No – Depends on Measure
• US has NOT Been Welcoming– “Rose-Colored” View of the Past
• Today is NOT that Different– Has Taken Generations for Full
Acceptance
• Changes have been Rapid– Very Different from US in 1950, 1970 or even 1990
Hispanic Trends Project
• Demographic Background– How many? What kind? Trends
– From where? To where?
• What Are Our Policies?– Admission & Exclusion
– Integration & Impact Mitigation
• What Are the Immigrants Like?– Education & Income
– Families & Children
– Factors Behind Migration
Immigration Today
Hispanic Trends Project
BIG Changes Recently
• Unauthorized Immigration has Stopped– Unauthorized Population Growth Reversed in ’07
– Mexican Flows have REVERSED (new)
– Lull or Fundamental Change??
• Total Immigrant Population Growth– Overall Growth Basically Stopped ‘07 to mid-’10
– Legal Immigration Levels Still High
– Huge Drop in New Unauthorized
– New Asian Arrivals exceed Latinos
• Unauthorized Population = Families w/ Kids– Almost Half of Adults are Parents
• Geographic Dispersal Stopped in ’07– Numbers Constant in “New Destinations” through ‘11
Hispanic Trends Project
Context & History
Hispanic Trends Project
• Large Total Increases, Now Stable– Shift to Latin America & Asia by ‘70s
• New Flows are Unauthorized (by ‘80s)– Much More Heavily Latin American
– In-Flow Now Way, Way Down
• Responsive to Origin & Destination– Job Availability in U.S.
– Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere
• New Destinations Emerged– Driven by Unauthorized (Mexican)
Migration Flows to U.S.
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
19th Century:
Increases and Fluctuations
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
8.8
3.7
5.2
* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
1910s & 1920s:
War plus Restrictions Declines
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
4.1
5.8
3.7
5.2
* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
8.8
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
1930s & 1940s:
Depression & WarNo One Comes
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
0.5
4.13.7
5.2
1.0
* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
5.8
8.8
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
1950s & 1960s:
Post-WarImmigration Starts Again
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
0.5
4.13.7
5.2
3.3
1.0
2.5
* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
5.8
8.8
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
1970s to 1990s:Increased Numbers & New
Origins
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
0.5
4.13.7
5.24.5
1.0
2.5
6.0
* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
8.0
3.3
5.8
8.8
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
Late 20th Century:
Unauthorized Immigration BOOMS
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
0.5
4.1
6.0
9.0
3.7
5.2
7
3.8
1.0
2.5
10* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
14-16+(est.)
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
21st Century:
Current Legal Flows Still High
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
0.5
4.1
6.0
9.0
3.7
5.2
7
3.8
1.0
2.5
10* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
14-16+(est.)
10.5
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
21st Century:
Current Total Flows Still High
0.1
2.8
0.6
2.32.61.7
0.5
4.1
6.0
9.0
3.7
5.2
7
3.8
1.0
2.5
10
14+?
* Additional immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens
Additional*
Europe/Canada (Legal)
All Other (Legal)
Millions of ImmigrantsArriving
14-16+(est.)
Hispanic Trends Project
1820s
1840s
1860s
1880s
1900s
1920s
1940s
1960s
1980s
2000s
Legal Immigrants per 1,000 population
Undocumented per 1,000 population
21st Century:
Immigration RATES Below Highs
1.3
7.1
4.2
6.6
12.1
8.4
0.6
4.0
7.2
11.1
5.9
10.5
3.7
2.2
0.6
1.6
4.8
6.4
5.2
Immigrants during Decadeper 1,000 Population
at Beginning of Decade
Hispanic Trends Project
Multiple Goals of Immigration Policy
• Economic—Competitiveness,
Jobs
• Social—Family Unification
• Moral—Human Rights
• Cultural—Pluralism
• Legal—Sovereignty, Security,
& Rule of Law
* Share of 2010 Admissions
(14%)*
(66%)
(14%)
(5%)
(<1%)
Hispanic Trends Project
Selected Immigration Laws
• Exclusions–1885 -- Chinese
–1907 -- Japanese
–1917 -- Asians & “Illiterates”
• S. & E. Europe Quotas & Limits–1921, 1924, 1952
• Repeal of Discriminatory Quotas–1965 -- Eastern Hemisphere
–1976 -- Western Hemisphere
Hispanic Trends Project
Revised Immigration Laws
• Refugee Act of 1980– International, ideological standards
– Outside preference system
• Immigration Reform & Control Act, 1986– Employer sanctions
– Legalization programs
• Immigration Act of 1990– 40% increase in immigration
– Employment categories tripled
– Diversity category created
Hispanic Trends Project
Post-1996 Immigration Laws
• Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death PenaltyAct of 1996
• Illegal Immigration Reform and ImmigrantResponsibility Act of 1996
• Personal Responsibility and WorkOpportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996
• Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act of 2001
• Real ID Act of 2005
Hispanic Trends Project
Immigrant Population
Hispanic Trends Project
0
10
20
30
40
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Foreign-Born Population (millions)
Percent Foreign-Born of Total
Immigrant Numbers Peak in 1930 -–
Still Shrinking by 1970
14.2 Million
9.6 Million
Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000;Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013).
Hispanic Trends Project
0
10
20
30
40
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Foreign-Born Population (millions)
Percent Foreign-Born of Total
Immigrant Numbers Grow Rapidly
from 1970 Low Point
Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000;Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013).
40.5 Million(2007, adj.)
14.2 Million
9.6 Million
Hispanic Trends Project
41.7
0
10
20
30
40
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Foreign-Born Population (millions)
Percent Foreign-Born of Total
Immigrant Numbers Grow Rapidly
But Plateau After 2007
Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000;Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013).
40.5 Million(2007, adj.)
14.2 Million
9.6 Million
Hispanic Trends Project
41.7
0
10
20
30
40
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Foreign-Born Population (millions)
Percent Foreign-Born of Total
Immigrant Numbers at Peak –Percentage is Only Near Peak
14.8 Percent
4.7 Percent13.4 Percent
(2012)
Source: Compilation from Decennial Censuses, 1850-2000;Pew Hispanic Trends, 1995-2012 (Passel, et al. 2013).
40.5 Million(2007, adj.)
Hispanic Trends ProjectSource: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013).
Latin Americans & AsiansDominate Foreign-Born
OtherLatin America -- 24%
7.1 million
Africa, Other -- 5%1.6 million
Europe &Canada -- 16%
4.9 million
Asia -- 31%9.2 million
Mexico -- 20%6.0 million
Mid-East -- 4%1.2 million
41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012
Hispanic Trends Project
2.5
5
3.33
43.9
8.4
11.1(2005)
12.0(2007)
4-80 6-891-82 6-86 10-9610-92 4-00 3-05 3-10
The Unauthorized PopulationGrew Rapidly Thru 2007
Millions of Unauthorized ImmigrantsLiving in the U.S.
Source: Compilation from various sources;Pew Hispanic Center, 2000-2010 (Passel & Cohn 2011).
Hispanic Trends Project
5.7
6.8
7.9
8.6
9.4
10.1
11.1
12.2
11.3
3.53
5
7
9
11
13
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total Unauthorized Downward Trend
Established ’07-’09Unauthorized population(millions)
Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013.
Hispanic Trends Project
5.7
6.8
7.9
8.6
9.4
10.1
11.1
12.2
11.3 11.511.7
3.53
5
7
9
11
13
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total Unauthorized Dropped’07-’09;
Essentially No Change ‘09 to ‘12Unauthorized population
(millions)
Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013.
Hispanic Trends Project
8.6
9.4
10.1
11.1
12.2
11.311.5 11.7
8
10
12
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total Unauthorized Dropped’07-’09;
Essentially No Change ‘09 to ‘12Unauthorized population
(millions)
Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013.
Hispanic Trends Project
Legal Status of Immigrants2012
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends preliminary estimates based on Passel et al. 2013.
26%28%
42% 4%
Legal Permanent Resident (LPR)
Aliens10.9 million
Temporary Legal Residents1.7 million
Unauthorized Immigrants11.7 million
41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012
Naturalized Citizens
(former LPRs)17.3 million
Hispanic Trends ProjectSource: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013).
11.7 Million Unauthorized in 2012
Mexico is Largest Source ofUnauthorized, by Far
OtherLatin America -- 24%
2.7 million
Africa, Other -- 4%0.4 million
Europe &Canada -- 7%
0.8 million
Asia -- 11%1.3 million
Mexico -- 52%6.0 million
Mid-East -- 3%0.3 million
Hispanic Trends Project
2.9
3.5
4.1
4.5
5.0
5.6
6.3
6.9
6.4
1.41
3
5
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‘07;
Dropped Considerable by ‘10Unauthorized populationBorn in Mexico (millions)
Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013.
Hispanic Trends Project
2.9
3.5
4.1
4.5
5.0
5.6
6.3
6.9
6.46.2
6.0
1.41
3
5
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‘07;
No Indications of Increases thru ‘12Unauthorized population
Born in Mexico (millions)
Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera 2013.
Hispanic Trends Project
2.8
3.3
3.84.1
4.4 4.54.8
5.35.0
2.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Non-Mexican Unauthorized Peaked ’07;
Unauthorized population (millions)
Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year
significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before
significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change
is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary
Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
Hispanic Trends Project
2.8
3.3
3.84.1
4.4 4.54.8
5.35.0
5.3
2.1
5.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Non-Mexican Unauthorized Peaked ’07;
Increases Since ‘09 (but not since ‘07)Unauthorized population (millions)
Shaded area represents 90% confidence intervalWhite Circle -- Change from previous year
significant at 90%Tan Circle -- Change from two years before
significant at 90%Dark Circle – Neither 1-year or 2-year change
is significant at 90%2012 is preliminary
Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
Hispanic Trends Project
Legal Immigrant Arrivals Growing Numbers & New
Origins
15%19%70%15%22%
47%
35%37%
45%35%
16%
15%
25%
24%
25%
26%
26%
9%
1951 to 1960
1961 to 1970
1971 to 1980
1981 to 1990*
1991 to 2000*
2001 to 2010
1,050,000
250,000
330,000
450,000
600,000
* Excludes IRCA legalizations
Legal Immigrants Admitted,Average Annual
770,000
10%12%
6%
14%
14%13%
11%
6%Other Latin America
Mexico
Asia
Europe & Canada
All Other
Hispanic Trends ProjectSource: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013).
30.0 Million Legal Immigrants in 2012
Mexico is Largest Single Source of
Legal Foreign-Born, AlsoOther
Latin America -- 24%7.1 million
Africa, Other -- 5%1.6 million
Europe &Canada -- 16%
4.9 million
Asia -- 31%9.2 million
Mexico -- 20%6.0 million
Mid-East -- 4%1.2 million
Hispanic Trends Project
Focus on Growth of Mexicans
in U.S. and Flows
Hispanic Trends Project
Key Features of Mexican Migration
• Mexican Population in U.S. -- Rapid Build-Up begins in 1970s through 2007 -- Growth Stops after 2007 (10% in US) -- Unauthorized Numbers Peak in 2007
• Flows into U.S. -- Upward Trend in Late ‘90s; Peak ca. ’99-’01 -- Drop and Increase Tied to Employment -- Flows Plummet After ’07 -- Most Flows now Legal (<20% pre-’05)
• Other Features -- Role of Enforcement Uncertain -- Return Flows Increased after 2008 -- Family & Geographic Options Keep Folks in US
Hispanic Trends Project
13 24 42 68 78 103
760,000(1970)
576
486
222
454
377
641
BeginningsFlood Tide
Deportations
Bracero Era
8%
0
250
500
750
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Growth to WWI & ‘20s; Depression Deportations; Slow Expansion w/
Braceros
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Thousands of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
Hispanic Trends Project
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 760,000(1970)
.576.486.222 .454.377
.641
Beginnings Flood TideDeportations
Bracero Era
Undocumented
Contradiction
8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Scale Change…
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
Hispanic Trends Project
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103
2,200,000(1980)
.760.576.486.222 .454.377
.641
Beginnings Flood TideDeportations
Bracero Era
Undocumented
Contradiction
16%
8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Rapid Growth through 2007;Acceleration Driven by
Unauthorized
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
Hispanic Trends Project
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103
7,700,000(1996)
4.5
2.2
.760.576.486.222 .454.377
.641
Beginnings Flood TideDeportations
Bracero Era
Undocumented
Contradiction
28%
16%
8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Rapid Growth through 2007;Acceleration Driven by
Unauthorized
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
Hispanic Trends Project
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103
9.4
7.7
4.5
2.2
.760.576.486.222 .454.377
.641
Beginnings Flood TideDeportations
Bracero Era
Undocumented
Contradiction
16%
8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Rapid Growth through 2007;Acceleration Driven by
Unauthorized
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
12,770,000(2007 ACS--Adjusted)
Hispanic Trends Project
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103
9.4
7.7
4.5
2.2
.760.576.486.222 .454.377
.641
Beginnings Flood TideDeportations
Bracero Era
Undocumented
Contradiction
16%
32%
8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Rapid Growth through 2007;Acceleration Driven by
Unauthorized
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
12,770,000(2007 ACS--Adjusted)
Hispanic Trends Project
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103
9.4
7.7
4.5
2.2
.760.576.486.222 .454.377
.641
Beginnings Flood TideDeportations
Bracero Era
Undocumented
Contradiction
16%
32%
8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Growth Stops and Reverses 2007-2011;
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
12,010,000(2012 CPS--Adjusted)
Hispanic Trends Project
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103
9.4
7.7
4.5
2.2
.760.576.486.222 .454.377
.641
Beginnings Flood TideDeportations
Bracero Era
Undocumented
Contradiction
16%
32%
8% 9.3%
10.2%
4.9%
1.4%0
2
4
6
8
10
12
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
Growth Stops and Reverses 2007-2011;
HUGE Share of Mexicans in U.S. Now
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
12,010,000(2012 CPS--Adjusted)
Hispanic Trends Project
Annual Flows, the Economy & Enforcement
Hispanic Trends Project
570
670
250
140
770
150
580
470
370
0
200
400
600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
Mexican In-Flows to US Peak in ‘00;
Drop After ‘05 to One-Fifth of Peak in ‘10
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on ACS and CPS, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012.
Annual Total Immigrationfrom Mexico to
the U.S. (in 000s)
% Employed of LaborForceIn U.S.
Mexico-U.S.Migration
Rise Peak Decline
Hispanic Trends Project
570
670
250
140
770
150
580
470
370
0
200
400
600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
Link of In-Flows to Employment is Strong;
Implies Economic Motivation to Migrate
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on ACS and CPS, Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012.
Annual Total Immigrationfrom Mexico to
the U.S. (in 000s)
% Employed of LaborForceIn U.S.
Mexico-U.S.Migration
Rise Peak
U.S. Employment
Rate
Decline
Hispanic Trends Project
266
404
662
981
1,085
882
1,6371,499
974
1,140
140
370
770
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Apprehensions of Mexicans at the Southern Border
(in thousands)
Border Apprehensions of MexicansTrack Flows, but at Higher Levels
Annual Mexican Immigration (Based on PHT estimates,
in thousands)
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends for arrivals; DHS for apprehensions.
Hispanic Trends Project
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
“Voluntary” Returns are DOWN, but
Removals (Involuntary) are UpPersons Sent to MexicoBy U.S. Government (000s)
280150
1,560
350
Removals
Returns(from Apprehensions)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center based on Passel ,Cohn , & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
27%31%
41%
28%
Pre-1986 1986-1993 1994-2001 2002-2009
EventuallySucceeded
Apprehendedat Least Once
Apprehension Rate is Up,
Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.
Hispanic Trends Project
98% 95%100% 97%
27%31%
41%
28%
Pre-1986 1986-1993 1994-2001 2002-2009
EventuallySucceeded
Apprehendedat Least Once
Apprehension Rate is Up, BUT…Virtually Everyone Gets In
Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.
Hispanic Trends Project
Many UnauthorizedCome Through Ports of
Entry
11-12 Million in 2005-2006
Entered Legally--NonimmigrantVisa Overstay
4–5.5 million(41%)
Entered Legally--Border Crossing
Card250,000–500,000 (?)
(4-5%)
Entered Without
Inspection6–7 million
(55%)
Hispanic Trends Project
164 147 132 174 219 175 161 174 149 190 165 139 143116206
14890
1,0621,043
1,1311,1071,052
1,266
1,122
958
798
704
1,0591,059
850
647655
916
720
1995 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11
All Other
Mexico
Legal Admissions (in 000s)Fiscal years
Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,Office of Immigration Statistics, DHS
Average Admissions, ’00-’11
1,034
“Green Cards” routinely exceed 1 million
No declines since ‘00 (except ‘03)
Hispanic Trends Project
Reversal of Mexico-U.S. Flows
Hispanic Trends Project
670
1,390
1995 to 2000 (Feb.) 2005 to 2010 (June)
U.S. to Mexico (000s)
Mexico to U.S. (000s)
Major Shift from ‘95-’00 to ‘05-’10;
Flows to Mexico More than Double
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on varioussources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
1,370
2,940
1995 to 2000 (Feb.) 2005 to 2010 (June)
U.S. to Mexico (000s)
Mexico to U.S. (000s)
Major Shift from ‘95-’00 to ‘05-’10;
Flows to US Down by 55%
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on varioussources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
670
1,390 1,370
2,940
1995 to 2000 (Feb.) 2005 to 2010 (June)
U.S. to Mexico (000s)
Mexico to U.S. (000s)
Result of Shifts Net ZERO Migration for 2005-
2010
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on varioussources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
246 274
667
337
985
129
1990Census
2000Census
2005Conteo
2006ENADID
2009ENADID
2010Census
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on Mexicansources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
When Did the Flows Turn Around?
’07-’08 based on “In US 5 Years Ago”Persons in Mexico at Census/Survey and
in U.S. Five Years Earlier(thousands)
Hispanic Trends Project
455
325
265
195
130
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Flows into US Dropped Dramatically
After 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on varioussources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
Estimated Annual Movement (in 000s)
Mexico to U.S.Flow Estimate
Hispanic Trends Project
455
325
265
195
130
550
350
180
150 160
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Mexico to U.S.Flow Estimate
Illustrative Estimates Point to Large
Net Return Flows for 2008-2010
U.S. to Mexico(Illustrative,
ENADID)
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on varioussources, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
Estimated Annual Movement (in 000s)
Hispanic Trends Project
1.4 Million U.S. to Mexico Migrants, 2005-2010Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on Mexican2010 Census, Passel, Cohn & Gonzalez-Barrera 2012.
Who is Going Back to Mexico?
Other Adults53,000 (4%)
Long-TermMexican Migrants
(5+ years in US)825,000 (59%)
Short-TermMexican Migrants
200,000 (15%)
U.S.-BornChildren (>5)
110,000 (8%)
U.S.-Born Children ofMexicans (Under 5)
210,000 (15%)
Hispanic Trends Project
59%
53%
46%
23% 23%
29%
42%51%
32% 31%33%
19%
37% 36%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Latino Arrivals(as Share of All Arrivals)
Asian Arrivals
New Pattern Emerging by 2009 -–
Asian Inflows Surpass Latinos
Hispanic Trends Project
Characteristics of Unauthorized
Immigrants in the U.S.
Hispanic Trends Project
Why Aren’t More Leaving the US?
• Fear of Losing U.S. Job
• Situation in Mexico OK, Not Great
• Border Enforcement -- Costly & Risky to Re-enter U.S.
• Integration into U.S. Society -- Families Increasingly Rooted in U.S. -- U.S.-Born Children in School -- Social Networks in the U.S. -- Geographic Diversity gives Options
Hispanic Trends Project
92%85%
80%
Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64)
Unauthorized Immigrants
Legal Foreign-Born
All Natives
Unauthorized Men Work More;
Percent in Labor Force,2011
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
60%65%
71%
Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64)
Unauthorized Immigrants
Legal Foreign-Born
All Natives
Women Work Much Less Than Others Percent in Labor Force,
2011
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
92%
60%
85%
65%
80%71%
Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64)
Unauthorized Immigrants
Legal Foreign-Born
All Natives
Unauthorized Men Work More;Women Work Much Less Than
Others Percent in Labor Force,2011
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
Unauthorized Immigrants More Likely To Be Couples with
Children
44%
34%
20%
UnauthorizedImmigrant
Households
Legal ImmigrantHouseholds
U.S. NativeHouseholds
Percent of Group’s Householdsthat are Couples with Children,
2011
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
35.8%37.2%
39.4%
42.4%43.8%
47.1%
50.3%
54.7%
59.4%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Unauthorized Immigrant Population
Has Become“Settled” in the U.S.Share of Unauthorized Immigrants Who
Have Lived in the US 10 Years or More
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
37.6%
40.8% 42.0%44.6%
47.6%
52.6%
56.1%
61.6%
68.4%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Unauthorized Mexican Population
Is Even More “Settled” in the U.S.Share of Unauthorized Mexicans Who
Have Lived in the US 10 Years or More
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
0.9
2.6
0.9
Men withoutPartners or
Children
Men with Partnersor Children
Women withoutPartners or
Children
Women withPartners or
Children
Without Children
With Children
A Majority of Unauthorized Women
Are Married or Have ChildrenUnauthorized ImmigrantAdults 2011 (millions)
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
2.52.2
1.0
Men withoutPartners or
Children
Men with Partnersor Children
Women withoutPartners or
Children
Women withPartners or
Children
Without Children
With Children
A Majority of Unauthorized Men (!)
Are Married or Have Children
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Unauthorized ImmigrantAdults 2011 (millions)
Hispanic Trends Project
2.5
0.9
2.62.2
0.9
1.0
Men withoutPartners or
Children
Men with Partnersor Children
Women withoutPartners or
Children
Women withPartners or
Children
Without Children
With Children
A Majority of Unauthorized Adults
Are Married or Have Children
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Unauthorized ImmigrantAdults 2011 (millions)
Hispanic Trends Project
1.4
0.3
1.61.4
0.3
0.4
Men withoutPartners or
Children
Men with Partnersor Children
Women withoutPartners or
Children
Women withPartners or
Children
Without Children
With Children
Other Family
A Majority of Mexican Unauthorized
Are Married or Have Children, AlsoAdult Unauthorized Immigrants,
from Mexico 2011 (millions)
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
US-Born Children of Unauthorized Up
but Unauthorized Children DecreaseChildren with at Least One Unauthorized
Immigrant Parent, by Status,2000-2011 (in millions)
0.9
1.5
2.1
4.6
Unauthorized ImmigrantChildren
U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Parent(s)
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Among Mexican UnauthorizedUS-Born Children Up Even
MoreChildren with at Least One Unauthorized Mexican Immigrant Parent, by Status,2000-2011 (in millions)
0.48
0.90
1.4
3.3
Unauthorized ImmigrantChildren from Mexico
U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Mexican Parent(s)
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2000-2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
Unauthorized Families—5.5 M Others with a Very Mixed
Composition
16.6 Million in Unauthorized Families, 2011
Other Adults910,000
Unauthorized Men5.7 million
56% of Adults UnauthorizedWomen4.5 million
44% of Adults
UnauthorizedChildren
890,000Only 8% of AllUnauthorized
U.S. CitizenChildren4.6 million
84% of Kids
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
Unauthorized Mexican FamiliesHave a Very Mixed
Composition
10 Million in Unauthorized Mexican Families, 2011
Other Adults585,000
Unauthorized Men3.3 million
58% of Adults UnauthorizedWomen2.3 million
42% of Adults
UnauthorizedChildren
475,000Only 8% of AllUnauthorized
U.S. CitizenChildren3.3 million
87% of Kids
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2011 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
Large Number of “DREAM”ers Potentially Eligible for Deferred
Deportation
1.4 Million Potential “DREAM”ers
IneligibleAdults
84%9.5 million
1.4 MillionPotential
Beneficiaries
Under 18150,000
Currently in School
IneligibleChildren
32% of Kids300,000
FuturePotential550,000
Most Under 15Some 15-17 Not
Currently in School
Adults 18-20700,000
In US before Age 16In US 5+ yearsIn School or
College Degree730,000
Source: March 2010 CPS, augmented by Pew Hispanic Center.
Hispanic Trends Project
Where Do the Immigrants Live?
Hispanic Trends ProjectSource: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2012 March CPS, preliminary (Passel et al. 2013).
Immigrants Are Concentrated
New York -- 11%4.5 million
41.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2012
Texas -- 11%4.5 million
Florida -- 9%3.8 million
Illinois -- 4%1.8 million
All Others36%
14.9 million
California -- 25%10.4 million
New Jersey -- 5%2.0 million
Hispanic Trends Project
Core States – 73% in ’90, 64% in ’12
Immigrant PopulationGrowth, 1990-2011 (US=104%)
Major Destinations (65% in 2011) (6)
All Other States (22-126%) (18)Other “New Growth” (154-251%) (17)Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) (10)
Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.
Hispanic Trends Project
Ten Fastest Growing Immigrant Pops
Immigrant PopulationGrowth, 1990-2011 (US=104%)
Major Destinations (65% in 2011) (6)
All Other States (22-126%) (18)Other “New Growth” (154-251%) (17)Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) (10)
Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.
Hispanic Trends Project
New Immigration Growth Centers
Immigrant PopulationGrowth, 1990-2011 (US=104%)
Major Destinations (65% in 2011) (6)
All Other States (22-126%) (18)Other “New Growth” (154-251%) (17)Top 10 Growth State (271-515%) (10)
Source: Based on IPUMS for 1990,2011.
Hispanic Trends Project
Unauthorized Immigrants Move Away from California
After 1990CA, 42%
23%
Others, 20%
FL, 7%IL, 6%
NJ, 3%
NY, 10%TX, 13%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Pew Research CenterPassel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
Percent of Total Unauthorized Population
(700,000)
Hispanic Trends Project
Unauthorized Spread is to “New”
Areas, not Traditional States
23%
CA, 42%
39%
Others, 20%
FL, 7%IL, 6% 5%
NJ, 3%
8%NY, 10%
13%TX, 13%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Pew Research CenterPassel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
Percent of Total Unauthorized Population
(700,000)
(4,700,000!)
Hispanic Trends Project
Unauthorized Spread Stops After ’07; “Others” Hold
ConstantCA, 42%
21%
39%
Others, 20%
40%
FL, 7%8%
4%IL, 6%
NJ, 3%
7%
NY, 10%TX, 13%
15%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Pew Research CenterPassel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera (2013)
Percent of Total Unauthorized Population
(700,000)
(4,700,000)(4,700,000!)
Hispanic Trends Project
Dispersal of Unauthorized Immigrants
Unauthorized Immigrants, 2011 (11.1 million)
1,700,000-2,600,000
40,000-100,000120,000-350,000475,000-775,000
Less than 35,000
(2)
(19) (12) (4)
(14) Source: Consistent withPassel & Cohn 2012,
superseded.
Hispanic Trends Project
New Growth High % Unauthorized
% Unauthorized of Foreign-Born, 2011
(U.S. = 28%)Highest % Unauthorized (36-50%)
Lowest % Unauthorized (<20%)Low % Unauthorized (22-27%)High % Unauthorized (28-34%)
(19)
(11) (12)
(9)
Source: Consistent withPassel & Cohn 2012,
superseded.
Hispanic Trends Project
Unauthorized Workers Numbers and
Shares Increased through 2007
5.5
6.3 6.4 6.56.8
7.47.8
8.4 8.27.8 8.0 8.0
3.8%4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6%
5.0% 5.2%5.5% 5.3%
5.1% 5.2% 5.2%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Millions ofunauthorized immigrant workers
Unauthorized immigrant workersas share of labor force
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmentedMarch CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
% Unauthorized of Labor Force, 2011
% Unauthorized of Labor Force (2011, U.S. = 5.2%)
Very Highest (8.9%-10.7%)
Below Average (2.6%-4.0%)Average (4.4%-5.3%)Above Average (5.7%-6.9%)
Very Lowest (<2.3%) (14)
(4)
(7) (6)
(20) Source: Consistent withPassel & Cohn 2012,
superseded.
Hispanic Trends Project
1-in-15 of K-12 Students is theChild of an Unauthorized
Immigrants
5.0%1.8%
6.9%
16.1%
77.0%
13.3%
2.8%
U.S.-born parent Legal immigrant parent Unauthorized immigrantparent
All children
US-born child
Immigrant child
Percent of K-12 School Enrollment,
2010
Source: Pew Hispanic Trends based on augmented2010 March CPS, consistent with Passel & Cohn 2012.
Hispanic Trends Project
% of K-12 with Unauthorized Parents
% of K-12 Students withUnauthorized Parent(s)
(2010, U.S. = 6.9%)Very Highest (10%-18%)
Well Below Average (2.0%-3.5%)Below Average (3.8%-6.4%)Average (6.7%-7.6%)
Very Lowest (<1.9%) (11)
(5)
(15) (7)
(13)Source: Consistent with
Passel & Cohn 2012,superseded.
18%
17%
10%
15%
13%
Hispanic Trends Project
What About the Future?
• Flows Down—Response to Economy– Enforcement May Be Working
• Border Effectiveness Uncertain for Now• Interior Laws Make Life Risky/Unpleasant
• Changes in Mexico Affect Flows– Smaller Birth Cohorts Less Demographic Pressure– Break in Flows May Weaken Networks
• Key Features of Unauthorized Population– Families, Not Just Individuals– Networks and Culture Have Enhanced Flows– Scale is Large and Dispersed
Hispanic Trends Project
Thank You!
Hispanic Trends Project
Contact InformationJeffrey S. PasselSenior Demographer
Hispanic Trends Project
202-527-2146 (mobile)202-419-3625 (direct)