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Implications of the climate change debate on land tenure in the
Amazon
Paulo BarretoSenior Researcher at Imazon
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Climate change
Adaptation Mitigation
ReforestationAforestation
Avoided deforestaton
Biofuel
Increasedagricultural land price
Displacement of cattle ranching
Increased land use productivity
Increased environmental enforcement
Creation of protected areas
Payment environmental
servicesIncreased
deforestation in new occupations
Reclamation ofpublic lands
Increased deforestaion
in old ocupations
Conventional 2nd generation
Non-agricultural land
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The Brazilian Amazon Total size:
5.2 million Km2
Original forest: 4.1 million Km2
~17% deforested
~ 23 million people
45% poor
Deforestation data: Inpe, 2007
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Messy land tenure situation in the Amazon
Lack of unified land cadastre
Overlap between public and private lands
Huge amount of informal possessions
Million of hectares illegally documented
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Who owns the Amazon?
Protected areas 210 41%
Unclaimed public lands
120 24%
Private 178 35%
Rough estimates of land tenure status (million hectares and %)
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Unclear status of private holdings in the Amazon
Titled + posseion
3 2%
Titled 133 74%
Informal possession
42 24%
“Private land” tenure status in 2003 (million hectares and %)
Source: National Institute of Agrarian Reform and Colonization (Incra)
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Unclear future of mitigation
------------------------------------
Adoption of biofuels
How much? How fast?
----------------------------------------
Development of 2nd generation biofuels?
Oil prices?
Impacts on the environment and food price?
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Projected area to be allocated to
biofuels:
32 million hectares worldwide by 20301
11 million or more hectares in Brazil2
1 Fraiture, C., Giordano, M. & Yongsong, L. Biofuels and implications for agricultural water use: blue impacts of green energy. International Water Management Institute. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
2 Assis, V; Elstrodt, H. & Silva. C. F.C. 2007. Positioning Brazil for biofuels success. The McKinsey Quarterly. McKinsey & Company.
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Agricultural price increase due to the adoption of biofuels
41
66
3029
4549
2123
43 43
16
76
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Corn Oilseeds Sugarcane Wheat
% i
ncre
ase i
n r
ela
tio
to
baseli
ne
Conventional biofuel
Conventional + 2nd generation
Conventional + 2nd generation + increased crop productivity
Source of data: Msangi, S. et al. 2007. Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
% increase by 2020 compared to 2005
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Biofuels would escalate the displacement of cattle
ranching to the Amazon
Biofuel
Displacement of cattle ranching
to the Amazon
Sugarcane in old pastsures outside
Amazon
Corn and soybeans in old pastsures inside
and outside Amazon
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Growth of cattle herd in the Amazon
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-
30.0
60.0
90.0
120.0
150.0
180.0
210.0
Mill
ion
ca
ttle
he
rd
Remainder of Brazil Amazon
Cattle heads in the Amazon and remainder of Brazil
Amazon´s share of the Brazilian cattle herd
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Growth of sugarcane plantation in Brazil
Hectares of sugarcane1990-2006
Brazil´s ethanol exports 2001-2006
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Hec
tare
s
Total Amazon Remainder of Brazil
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1000
tons
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Decrease of cattle herd in São Paulo State – the main sugarcane
producer
São Paulo State
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
Mill
ion
cat
tle
hea
ds
Million cattle head in São Paulo – 1990-2006
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Growth of soybean plantations in Brazil and in the Amazon
-
8.0
16.0
24.0
32.0
40.0
48.0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Mil
lio
n h
ecta
res
Legal Amazon Rremainder of Brazil
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Cattle ranching growth associated with deforestation
in the Amazon
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70M
illi
on
cat
tle
hea
ds
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1,00
0 K
m2
def
ore
sted
Cattle heads 1,000 Km2 deforested
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Growth of pastureland price in central Pará State
-100200300400500600700800900
1,000
R$/
hec
tare
Source of data: Anualpec 2002, 2004 and 2007.
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Growth of agricultural establishments in the Amazon
Mostly occupation of public lands
116
121
131
100
110
120
130
1985 1996 2006
Mill
ion
he
cta
res
Source of data: IBGE – Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics
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Case: growth of cattle herd and landholdings in Novo Progresso
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1992 1998 2005
Num
ber o
f hol
ding
s
(0.30)
0.20
0.70
1.20
1.70
2.20
Mill
ion
hect
ares
Number of holdinsgs Million hectares
Number and area of
landholdings
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Cattl
e he
ads
Cattle heads
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Occupations to force land reform
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004
Num
ber
of fa
mili
esNumber of families involved in
occupations 1997- 2004
Source of data: Comissão Pastoral da Terra (Catholic Church Land Commission)
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Examples of measures to deal with occupations and conflicts
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
30.000.000
35.000.000
40.000.000
He
cta
res
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Pro
jeto
s
Hectares 1.779. 3.904. 6.928. 9.097. 10.88 12.47 13.89 14.47 21.70 28.94 36.17
Projetos 167 347 606 883 1.151 1.289 1.490 1.609 1.849 2.089 2.329
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Growth of land reform settlements Creation of protected areas
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But….
~ 40 million hectares continues as
informal possessions
Unfinished review of documentation of 76
million hectares of rural properties
Delay for creating unified land cadastre
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Conclusions Climate change pressure may escalate
occupation pressure
Georeferenced cadastre necessary to monitor avoided deforestation
The Brazilian government is ill equipped
Significant investment necessary