Download - Improving decision making
Marketing Management
Improving Decision Making
Decision Making
ارائه دهندگان:
احسان مدرسعلی صنعتی
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Graduate School of Management and Economics
Intro
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Con.
Introduction
Solution to previous biases
Case (baseball)
Case (Iran’s football)
Case (politics)
Why it takes this amount of time?
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Con.
Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Debiasing Judgment
Analogical Reasoning
Taking an Outsider’s View
Using Linear Models and Other Statistical Techniques
Understanding Biases in Others
Strategies forImprovingDecision making
Introduction
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Strategy 1: Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
Experience (feedback)
Feedback not helps always because1.Delay of outcomes
2.Variability of environment
3.No info of alternatives
4.Uniqueness of decisions
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Strategy 1: Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
All conditions must satisfied for using experience
HintCase
• acquiring a company
Conclusion
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Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
Strategy 1: Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Expertise
Transferability (compare)
• complementary of experience
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Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
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Con.
Unfreezing
Change
Refreezing
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Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
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Con.
Unfreezing
Change
Refreezing
Resistance Against The
Change
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Some ways to unfreeze decision making process
Question current strategy (Quiz and Feedback)
Ready to learn where they went
wrong
Ready to learn how they could have performed
better
Become Receptive to alternatives
Vivid examples
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Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
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Con.
Unfreezing
Change
Freezing
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Change
Clarifying
Explanation
Reassurance
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Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
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Con.
Unfreezing
Change
Refreezing
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Revert
back
New comer
Practice and
Frequent
application
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Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
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Con.
Unfreezing
Change
Freezing
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THOMPSON :
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Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
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Con.
People learn far more from cases, simulations, and real-world experiences when they are able to take away an abstract form of the learning message.
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Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
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Con.
•More generalized insight
How the two simulations
related?
•Focus on surface-level characteristics•Apply the message on specific context
Explain the lesson of each one.
Two exercise whit same
lesson
Comparison
Focus on
similarities
Less Sensitiv
e to irrelevant context features
Transferred to new
situations
(different context)
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IDSON:
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Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
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Con.
Understanding differences ,as well as similarities, across problems may also be a very useful means of transferring knowledge.
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Two version of Monty Hall problem and Two version of Dividing a Pie Problem
Understand the
differences
Generalize the importance of focusing on
others decisions
Generalize the
importance of games role
Without training on Monty Hall problem and Dividing a Pie problem
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Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
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Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
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Con.
What is the optimal level of abstraction that should occur to help people from analogies across problems ?
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Strategy 4: Taking an Outsider’s View
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
Different views to problemsInsider’s view :
the biased decision maker who looks at each situation as unique.
Outsider’s view :more capable of generalizing across situations and identifying similarities.
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Strategy 4: Taking an Outsider’s View
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
Entrepreneurs
Member of consulting team
Kahneman
case
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Strategy 4: Taking an Outsider’s View
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
Why we use
insider?
optimism
overconfidence
Consider all
details
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Strategy 5: Using Linear Models
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
4 above strategies are debiasing our decisions
directly
Linear model is an alternative for human
decisionsWhy we need an alternative?Humans
don’t debiased
completely
always have a rational decision takes big amount of
time
faced with the problem of creating a
decision making
environment
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Strategy 5: Using Linear Models
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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Con.
Successful example of using Linear Model
why do linear models work
so well?
• People are much better at selecting and coding information than integrating
• Humans are unreliable in judgments• Additional data (case)
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Strategy 6:Understanding Biases in Others
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How can we systemically detect
bias in our own decision and those
of others ?
Director of marketing for a retail chain
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Strategy 6:Understanding Biases in Others
Step1 •Select a comparison group
Step2 •Assess the distribution of the comparison group
Step3 •Incorporate intuitive estimation
Step4 •Assess the predicted result of the decision
Step5 •Adjust the intuitive estimate
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Adjusted estimate =Group mean +
Correlation x (Initial estimate –Group
mean)
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Strategy 6:Understanding Biases in Others
We now have a model for adjusting biased decisions in both individual and multiparty context that involves three parts.
Perceive and analyze the context
Distinguish the potential biases
Identify and make the adjustment
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Conclusion
Strategies for improving decision making
Change
Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Debiasing Judgment
Analogical Reasoning
Techniques
Taking an Outsider’s View
Using Linear Models and Other Statistical Techniques
Understanding Biases in Others
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Thank You For Your Attention