Download - INDIA ‘S ENERGY AND PETRO- RETAIL OUTLOOK SUMITA BOSE ROY General Manager - International Trade
INDIA ‘S ENERGY AND PETRO- RETAIL OUTLOOK
SUMITA BOSE ROY
General Manager - International Trade Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd
Defining India’s Energy Outlook
• Universal access and consumption options for all income groups
• Price stability
• Ability to compete across world markets• Meeting local and global environmental
norms
• Develop a globally competitive hydrocarbon sector through technology upgradation and capacity building
• Ensure energy security through indigenous production and equity abroad
• Ensure cleaner greener fuel to enhance quality of life
• Have free market for healthy competition and customer service
India’s Hydrocarbon Vision - 2025
India’s oil scenarios at a glance
• India’s demand for primary energy is growing by 5% p.a. • Oil demand is growing by 3.3% p.a. and is currently 2 million bbl/day
• India’s refining capacity matched its demand in 1998 and has remained positive
•
• Domestic Crude Oil is currently short of demand by 69%
• Net exporter of Naphtha, Gas oil, Gasoline, Fuel oil and importer of LPG
• Oil and gas accounts for 45% of total energy needs
• Bold reforms initiated to boost exploration and production
World oil demand growth
2000 2030 Avg.Ann.Growth
Total demand
(Million bbls/day)
75.0 120 1.6%
China 4.9 12.0 3.0
India 2.1 5.6 3.3
Mid East 4.1 7.7 2.2
South Asia 0.5 1.8 4.0
India’s demand for energy Annual average demand for primary energy
expected to grow by 5%
(Mtoe) 2000 2030 Avg. Ann Growth
Total Primary Energy 300 750 5 (%)
Coal 165 341 3.5
Oil 102 271 5.5
Gas 22 97 11.3
Nuclear 4 16 10.0
Hydro 6 8 1.0
Other Renewable 0 8 0.27
Shift in energy consumption pattern
2000 % 2030 %
Coal 165 55 340 45
Oil 102 34 271 36
Gas 23 8 97 13
Nuclear 4 1 16 2
Hydro 6 2 18 3
Other renewable 0 0 8 1
Total primary energy 300 100 750 100
Demand (Mtoe) vs Share
Oil demand versus refining capacity
MMTPA
Demand Refining
Capacity
Shortfall
/excess
1995 67 54 (7)
2000 97 112 15
2005 127 150 23
2012* 172 260 88
* Projections at the end of Eleventh Five Year Plan
• Demand growth projected at CAGR 5.4%, against actual 2003-04 growth of 9%
• Optimum refining capacity planned to cope with anticipated spurt in demand in 2005/12
Net imports / Exports
MMTPA
1995 2000 2005
28.8 imports
15.4 imports
20.1 exports
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
1995 2000 2005 2010
LPG
Gasoline
Gas Oil
Naphtha
Kero/Jet
Fuel Oil
Net product imports & exports
LNG will impact F.Oil/Naphtha exports
(TMT)
Crude oil production versus demand
Wide Gap Between Production and Demand
Crude Prodn. Demand Gap
2000 32 97 65
2005 35 125 90
2011 42 172 130
* Based on presently known oil basins
MMTPA
Natural gas demand / supply projections
Supply projections based on present reserves
30% increase due to recent discoveries in Pvt./JV. Sector
*
70
151
95
231
95
313
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2024-25
Supply
CBM*
MM
SC
MD
---
391
Demand
95
2 10 15
• Emerging fuel of the future
• Demand is 150 mmscmd against availability of 70 mmscmd
• 10 mmscmd contracted from Qatar in 2004
• Several new fields discovered in India. The world’s largest discovery of gas in 2002 was reported by Reliance / Niko Resources in NEC-25, off Orissa State (35/40 mmscmd for next 15/20 years)
• Reliance/Niko Resources have made further major
discoveries this year in the same block
Demand and supply for gas in India
New significant discoveries
RajasthanBasin
LAKSHMI
AMBE
GAURI
PARVATI
GUDA
DISCOVERIES
I N D I A
Delhi
Mumbai
Chennai
SARASWATI
DISCOVERIES
RAVVA
PRODUCING
BAY
OF
BENGAL
NANUWALA
Kolkata
DHIRUBHAI - 1, 2, 3 & 4 K-G Basin
CambayBasin
D-5
D-6
OilGas Km
0 400200
DISCOVERIES
NELP
I PRE-NELP
KANAKDURGA
PADMAVATI
ANNAPURNA
BHIMA
RJ-E-1
Paradigm shift for gaining crude oil/gas security
Oil sector reforms introduced by Indian Government in 1999 to boost exploration activities
‘New Exploration Licensing Policy’ (NELP) notified, - permitting private/foreign participation. - allowing FDI up to 100% - Awarding acreage on international competitive
bidding - offering fiscal incentives, like royalties, tax
concessions, market driven prices, etc
Thrust on acquisition of equity oil and reserves abroad,development of R&D, deep sea drilling
• Nine LNG terminals proposed for 160 mmscmd, of which, 30 mmscmd are being currently set up by Petronet LNG and Shell
• Future projects are dependent of firm consumer demand and based on price as compared to alternate fuel
• Sources of gas will also depend on domestic gas discoveries
Proposed LNG terminals
Regulations and pricing mechanisms
• Pricing of petroleum products deregulated from 2002 and linked to international price
• Import duties and freight added to import price to arrive at the domestic price
• Prices revisions permitted on fortnightly basis alongside international prices
• Gasoline and gas oil price revisions are permitted within Government norms
• Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Kerosene are subsidised
Indian oil industry
COMPANY Refining capacity
Sales in Domestic
Market share %
Indian Oil 52 51.5 55
Reliance 32 - -
Bharat Petroleum
19 20.8 22
Hindustan Petroleum
14 18.8 21
MRPL/ BRPL 15 1. 5 2
TOTAL 132 92. 6 100
------MMTPA------ 2003-04
PRTRO -RETAIL OUT LOK OF BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD
BPC Group – positioned well
Marketing 22%
Refining 17%
Marketing 22%
Refining 17%
Industry ShareIndustry Share
BPC & KRL fully on SAP system
BPC upgraded to SAP
Enterprise
State of Art Data Center
E-Banking/ E-Business B2B
BPC & KRL fully on SAP system
BPC upgraded to SAP
Enterprise
State of Art Data Center
E-Banking/ E-Business B2B
TechnologyTechnology
Retail outlets 5,530Installations 12 Depots 129Tankage (mn kl) 3.08 Aviation stations 19 LPG Plants 42LPG Distributorships 1922
Retail outlets 5,530Installations 12 Depots 129Tankage (mn kl) 3.08 Aviation stations 19 LPG Plants 42LPG Distributorships 1922
Marketing InfrastructureMarketing Infrastructure
Mumbai-Manmad-Indore 580 km(under extension to Delhi)
Cochin-Karur 292 km
Mumbai-Manmad-Indore 580 km(under extension to Delhi)
Cochin-Karur 292 km
PipelinesPipelines
RefiningRefining
180,000 bbl/dat Mumbai
180,000 bbl/dat Mumbai
150,000 bbl/d54.81% holding150,000 bbl/d
54.81% holding
60,000 bbl/d62.96% holding
60,000 bbl/d62.96% holding
Petronet LNG Limited (PLL) 12.5% (LNG import facility of 5 MMPTA at Dahej)
Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) 22.5%(Supply of CNG to households/auto sector in metros; agreement signed)
Petronet LNG Limited (PLL) 12.5% (LNG import facility of 5 MMPTA at Dahej)
Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) 22.5%(Supply of CNG to households/auto sector in metros; agreement signed)
Significant Joint VenturesSignificant Joint Ventures
Forbesganj
Jammu & Kashmir
HimachalPradesh
Punjab
Haryana
Rajasthan
WestBengal
Orissa
Maharashtra
Karnataka AndhraPradeshGoa
TamilNadu
Kerala
Gujarat
Assam
Jallandar
Shakurbasti
Panipat
Mathura
AmbalaBathinda Sangrur
Rewari
Jaipur
Jodhpur
Sidhpur
Kandla
SikkaRajkot
Koyali
Ratlam
Indore
Manmad
MumbaiVashi
Loni
Rourkela
Paradeep
Ranchi
Cherlapalli
Vijaywada
Rajahmundry
Vizag
Mangalore HassanDevangonthi
Kochi
Irugur
Karur
Madurai
Trichy
Chennai
Kota Gwalior/Rayaru
Bina
Vadinar
Kanpur
Jhansi/ Karari Mughalsarai
Patna
Barauni
Haldia
Budgebudge
Rajbandh
Siliguri Bongaigon
Gauhati Jorhat DigboiAgra
Existing Product Pipeline
Ahmedabad
Chaksu
ViramgamSalaya
Itarsi
BPC existing facilities
•
•
•
Amousi
Meerut
•
Map not to scale
•
•
Akola/Gaigaon
Badnera
Tadali
ChandrapurAurangabad
Jalgaon
Dhule/Shirud
Akolner
Miraz/Hazarwadi
Valsad/Vapi
Sholapur/Pakni
Bijapur
Gulbarga
Raichur
Desur
Hubli/Navalur
Shimoga
Karwar
Cannanore
Calicut
Quilon
Trivandrum Tirunelveli
Salem Neyveli
Nizamabad
Warangal
Guntakal
Renigunta
Cuddappah
Tada
Jagdalpur
Berhampur
Sambalpur
Balasore
Dhanbad
Tatanagar
Bokaro
Bhagalpur
Katihar
Raxaul Baitalpur
Gorakhpur
Gonda
Basti Banthra
Bareilly/ Aonla
Najibabad
Kathgodam
Bharatpur
Hanumangarh
Amritsar
Patiala Parwanoo
Shimla
Dhamatal
Jammu
Kotkapura
Hoshiarpur
Pathankot
Srinagar
Bikaner
Sagar/Nairoli
Satna
Jabalpur/Bhitoni Singrauli/Jayant
Bilaspur
Raipur
BhilaiGondia
Dehri Khandwa
Agartala
Vairangte
Dharmanagar Imphal Silchar
Dimapur
Lumding
Barapani
Nagaon Khot koti
Tinsukia
Missamari
Biswanath charali
N. LakhimpurDoimukh
Gangtok
Rangpo
Dalgaon
Udaipur
Surat/ Hazira
Bhavnagar
Essar
Narimanam
Bisrampur
BPC depot locationsExisting Refinery
Malda
Betkuchi
Cuttack/Jatni
Nishatpura/Bakania
Ajmer
Sabarmati
Kulu
Leh
Hissar
Borkhedi
Palghat
Ongole
Bijwasan
Mysore
BPC Installations
Tondiarpet
Shankari
NRL
Industry locations
Uttar Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Bihar
Uttaranchal
Chattis
garh
Jharkhand
Refining – growth in margins
Sharp recovery in regional margins – margin up trend expected to continue in medium term coinciding with Group capacity enhancement
Sharp recovery in regional margins – margin up trend expected to continue in medium term coinciding with Group capacity enhancement
Gross Margins
Rs14.34 bn
(Rs11.75 bn)
Gross Margins
Rs14.34 bn
(Rs11.75 bn)
Crude Throughput
8.76 MMT
(8.71)
Crude Throughput
8.76 MMT
(8.71)
Flexibility
60 plus
crude types
Flexibility
60 plus
crude types
Safety
ISRS Level – 8
Safety
ISRS Level – 8
Refinery Capex
Rs7.9 billion
in FY04
Refinery Capex
Rs7.9 billion
in FY04
BPCL Group Refinery GRMsBPCL Group Refinery GRMsSingapore Dubai Refinery MarginsSingapore Dubai Refinery Margins
Domestic margins are higher by US$1.5-2/bbl than regional marginsDomestic margins are higher by US$1.5-2/bbl than regional margins
BPC financials
Delivering shareholder value over the yearsReturn on net worth at 20%+ throughout last decade
Delivering shareholder value over the yearsReturn on net worth at 20%+ throughout last decade
Earnings per Share (EPS)
Return on Net Worth (RONW)Sales Turnover
Book Value per Share
Leveraging on retail
Speed: Branded Fuel
First branded Fuel in India Launched in July 02 Represents 9.8% of total petrol volumes in FY04 Available at 1100 outlets across country 49% market share of premium fuel Launch of SPEED 93, 93 Octane petrol in Aug. 03 Launch of Hi-Speed Diesel in July 04
In & Out Stores: Discover Convenience
235 convenience stores at retail outlets Available in more than 80 cities Total turnover Rs.300 mn/ Income Rs.37 mn Enhance fuel sales proposition Classic convenience Range of products and service offerings
Pure for Sure (PFS) – pioneering program guaranteeing fuel Quality and Quantity 48% of retail network under PFS
contributing 68% of Petrol and 62% Diesel sales
Pure for Sure (PFS) – pioneering program guaranteeing fuel Quality and Quantity 48% of retail network under PFS
contributing 68% of Petrol and 62% Diesel sales
PFS helped in building a strong retail foundationOther initiatives followed : it paid to be always the first
PFS helped in building a strong retail foundationOther initiatives followed : it paid to be always the first