THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY
USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT
POLICY
Date:
GAIN Report Number:
Approved By:
Prepared By:
Report Highlights:
The dry season is arriving later than average throughout Indonesia, thus allowing the expansion of third
cycle crop plantings on unirrigated lands. Considering increased corn plantings due to the late dry
season as well as an increase in downy mildew incidents, Post’s corn production numbers remain
unchanged. Likewise, increased rice plantings are offset by the arrival of brown hopper infestations. As
a result, Post’s rice production estimate remains unchanged. Post raises its MY 2016/17 Indonesian
wheat feed and residual consumption estimate to 1.8 MMT, based on growing feed wheat demand
resulting from Indonesia’s refusal to issue corn import licenses.
Thom Wright, Sugiarti
Meylinah
Thom Wright
Indonesia Grain and Feed Update July 2017
Grain and Feed Update
Indonesia
ID1719
7/27/2017
Required Report - public distribution
Post:
SECTION I. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi,
dan Geofisika, BMKG) reported that Indonesia was hit by a strong La Nina in 1998, a strong El Nino in
2015, and a weak to moderate La Nina in 2016. In early July 2017, BMKG forecast a low probability
for an El Nino to hit Indonesia after referring to the sea surface temperature level (SST), El Nino
Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole Index (IOD). BMKG expects that the
Indonesian climate will remain in the neutral range (neither El Nino nor La Nina) through December
2017.
On April 10, 2017 BMKG announced its expectation that the 2017 dry season would arrive later than
normal in 45.9 percent, on time in 35.1 percent, and earlier than normal in 19 percent of the Indonesian
territory. In line with BMKG forecasts, dry season onset occurred in May, June, or July 2017, and is
expected to peak between July and September 2017. East Java, Central Java, and southern parts of
Sumatera continue to receive sporadic rainfall, in line with the forecast of a late onset dry season.
Chart 1. 2017 Indonesian Dry Season Onset Forecast
Chart 2. Forecast of Rainfall Intensity in August 2017
Jakarta
Chart 3. Forecast of Rainfall Intensity in September 2017
Chart 4. Forecast of Rainfall Intensity in October 2017
Source: BMKG
Sufficient rainfall during the previous rainy season and sporadic rainfalls during the current dry season
maintained normal water levels at major Indonesian reservoirs. (See Table 1).
Table 1. Water Elevation at West Java Water Reservoirs, July 18, 2017.
No.
Reservoir
Elevation & Volume Drought Prep.
Elev.
Status
Target Observed Elevation Deviation
Vol. Deviation
Elev. Vol. Elev. Vol.
(m) (mil.m
3) (m)
(mil. m
3) (m) (mil.m
3) (m)
1. Jatiluhur
93.73 360.6
2 103.4
3 n/a 9.7 n/a
87.50 Norm
al
2. Cirata
209.52
160.87
216.07 n/a
6.55 n/a 206.00
Normal
3. Saguling
631.50
138.97
639.19 n/a
7.69 n/a 625.00
Normal
Source: Indonesian Min. of Public Works, Perum Jasa Tirta II (July 18, 2017), processed by FAS/Jakarta.
Note: “Deficit” indicates water levels lower than target, but above drought condition levels
Wheat
Post increases its MY 2016/17 Indonesian wheat import estimate to 9.9 MMT (from its previous
estimate of 9.0 MMT). The change is due to incremental import increases based on feed mill demand.
In line with import increases, Post raises MY 2016/17 Indonesian wheat consumption for feed and
residual use to 1.8 MMT, compared to the previous estimate of 1.2 MMT. The U.S. share of wheat
exports to Indonesia is increased to 1.0 MMT in MY 2016/17 compared to 799,000 MT imported in MY
2015/16.
Corn
Meteorlogical data indicates sustained rainfall in Lampung and Central Java, (two major corn production
areas), enabling continued corn planting on rain-fed production areas. Although reports of downy
mildew resulted in some production losses for second crop corn in 2016/17, Post expects that strong
third crop cycle production will offset losses. As a result, Post maintains its 2016/17 corn production
estimate unchanged. Post increases its 2016/17 Indonesian corn import estimate to 560,000 MT from its
previous estimate of 500,000 MT. The increase is due to higher demand from wet corn milling facilities
producing corn starch. Post likewise increases its 2016/17 FSI consumption estimate to 3.86 MMT.
Restrictions on corn for feed imports remain in place.
Rice
A weak El Nino in MY 2016/17 appears highly unlikely. Low rainfall intensity continues to occur
through the dry season, providing opportunities to grow paddy during the third crop cycle on lowland
irrigated areas. Additional harvested areas are expected to offset yield declines due to brown hopper
infestations in some major producing areas. BULOG reports shortfalls on its domestic procurement
target. However, the GOI remains committed to self-sufficiency goals and is not indicating any intention
to import rice. As a result, Post’s import estimate remains unchanged.
WHEAT
Trade
The Indonesian Flour Mills Association (APTINDO, Asosiasi Produsen Tepung Terigu Indonesia)
reports there were only five flour mills operating in Indonesia between 1970 and 1998. As of 2017,
there are 31 operational flour mills with a total installed capacity of 11.4 MMT, an increase from 10.3
MMT in MY2014/15. Most of the mills are located on Java. Running capacity of the mills reached 70
percent in MY 2015/16. Bogasari, Indonesia’s largest flour mill (with a 52-percent share of the wheat
flour market) is currently running at 85 percent capacity and is updating three flour mills located in
Jakarta. Additional flour mills on Java are also expanding operations. The industry is expected to grow
by five percent in MY 2016/17 due to the price competitiveness of wheat flour-based foods compared to
rice and other staple foods. APTINDO further projected that the total installed capacity of Indonesian
flour mills will reach approximately 14.2 MMT by MY2024/25.
The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) has targeted zero corn imports for MY 2016/17, and is
encouraging mills to use local corn to meet feed milling needs. Additionally, importers report that MOA
will not issue import recommendations for corn substitutes such as feed grade wheat, barley, or
sorghum. These imports restrictions have not only encouraged farmers to grow corn but have also
resulted in high local corn prices, which climbed even higher during April/May lean production period.
With mill gate corn prices reaching as high as Rp. 4,600/kg ($346/MT) the landed price of US soft red
winter wheat is competitive as a feed ingredient. (The landed price for July shipments of US soft red
winter wheat was recorded at Rp. 3,600/kg ($268/MT). Thus, facing import restrictions on corn and
feed-grade wheat, some feed mills have opted to buy food-grade wheat from flour mills. APTINDO
reported that imports of wheat in April and May 2017 have reached 860,000 MT and 1.14 MMT,
respectively, compared to 700,000 MT imported in March 2017. Based on this data, Post has increased
its 2016/17 wheat imports estimate to 9.9 MMT, compared to the previous estimate of 9.0 MMT.
Wheat exports to Indonesia for the period of July 2016 to May 2017 were led by Australia (48.54
percent), Canada (16.7 percent), Ukraine (15.6 percent), and the United States (8.66 percent).
Australia’s majority market share is due to the noodle industry’s preference for Australian standard
white wheat, price, and Australia’s close proximity. U.S. wheat exports to Indonesia in MY 2016/17 are
estimated to reach 1.0 MMT.
Indonesian wheat flour imports during the period of July 2016 to May 2017 declined by 129 percent to
79,430 MT of wheat equivalent, compared to 182,239 MT of wheat equivalent imported during the same
period of MY2015/16. The decline is mainly due to the continued weakness of rupiah against the U.S.
dollar. Domestic flour dominated the market throughout calendar year (CY) 2016, with a 98.9 percent
market share. According to Global Trade Atlas data, Turkey held the largest market share of wheat flour
exports to Indonesia (56 percent), followed by The Philippines (18.3 percent), and Canada (9 percent)
during the July 2016 to May 2017 period.
Consumption
Considering import increases and assuming that similar conditions will continue to the next marketing
year, Post increased its MY 2016/17 and 2017/18 Indonesian wheat consumption estimate for feed and
residual use to 1.8 MMT and 700,000 MT, respectively.
CORN
Production
Indonesia’s first corn season normally takes place between November and February (49 percent). The
second season takes place from March to June (37 percent), while the third runs from July to September
(14 percent). With the delayed arrival of the MY 2016/17 dry season (as explained above) farmers on
rain-fed corn producing lands in Lampung, Central Java, and East Java are able to plant corn during the
third crop cycle. Above average third crop cycle production is expected to offset the slight yield decline
resulting from downy mildew incidents observed in Lampung, Central Java, and East Nusa Tenggara
during the second crop cycle. Hence, Post maintains its 2016/17 Indonesian corn production estimate as
is.
Table 2. Corn Areas Affected by Main Pest and Disease, CY 2016 and Jan – Jun 2017.
N
o
.
Provi
nce
2016 2017
PA Affected Areas
% Affected
Areas to
Planted Areas
PA Affected Areas
% Affected
Areas to
Planted
Areas
L M S F T
To
tal
Aff
ect
ed
F L M S F T
To
tal
Af
fe
ct
ed
F
1 Aceh
29,
147
89
8
9
-
1
90
8
3.1
2
0.0
0
35,
401
67
3
1
-
-
67
4
1.
90
-
2
North
Sumat
era
114
,82
5
73
6
2
-
-
73
8
0.6
4
-
150
,39
1
18
0
-
-
19
0.
01
-
3
West
Sumat
era
43,
163
80
7
3
1
90
0.2
1
0.0
0
61,
078
16
3
1
-
19
0.
03
-
4 R i a u
6,2
82
11
9
21
0
0
14
0
2.2
3
0.0
0
5,0
67
22
3
-
-
25
0.
48
-
5 J a m
b i
5,0
49
55
5
-
0
60
1.2
0
0.0
0
6,9
02
23
3
-
-
25
0.
36
-
6
South
Sumat
era
50,
973
51
5
10
0
-
52
6
1.0
3
-
63,
832
25
2
26
-
-
27
8
0.
44
-
7 Bengk
ulu
8,7
63
46
1
-
-
46
0.5
2
-
15,
875
29
-
-
-
29
0.
18
-
8 Lamp
ung
166
,68
1
15
8
1
-
21
18
0
0.1
1
0.0
1
297
,01
3
20
9
-
-
-
20
9
0.
07
-
9
Bangk
a
Belitu
ng
351
1
-
-
-
1
0.2
3
-
1,4
15
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0
Riau
Island
s
346
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
252
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
1
Jakart
a
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- - -
1
2
West
Java
92,
277
64
1
-
-
-
64
1
0.6
9
-
63,
294
26
3
-
-
-
26
3
0.
42
-
1
3
Centra
l Java
244
,70
1
90
2
18
-
-
92
0
0.3
8
-
278
,59
8
68
9
3
-
10
70
2
0.
25
0.
00
1
4
Yogya
karta
9,5
59
60
-
-
-
60
0.6
3
-
8,4
19
14
-
-
-
14
0.
17
-
1
5
East
Java
450
,86
1
85
9
15
6
5
-
1,0
20
0.2
3
-
413
,88
1
23
7
64
7
-
30
8
0.
07
-
1
6
Bante
n
3,4
98
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
14,
559
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
7 B a l i
3,0
59
5
-
-
-
5
0.1
6
-
2,2
34
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
8
West
Nusa
Tengg
ara
130
,18
4
12
1
23
-
-
14
4
0.1
1
-
117
,01
2
84
-
-
-
84
0.
07
-
1
9
East
Nusa
Tengg
ara
119
,44
8
2,1
53
-
-
5
2,1
58
1.8
1
0.0
0
79,
405
55
1
-
-
-
55
1
0.
69
-
2
0
West
Kalim
antan
12,
773
49
-
-
-
49
0.3
8
-
13,
398
13
-
-
-
13
0.
10
-
2
1
Centra
l
Kalim
antan
1,3
29
4
-
-
-
4
0.3
0
-
2,4
08
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
2
South
Kalim
antan
12,
953
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
30,
039
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
3
East
Kalim
antan
3,1
05
13
3
-
-
4
13
7
4.4
0
0.1
3
12,
918
10
0
-
-
-
10
0
0.
77
-
2
4
North
Sulaw
esi
82,
786
44
9
1
-
42
49
3
0.6
0
0.0
5
186
,62
1
15
7
-
-
-
15
7
0.
08
-
2
5
Centra
l
Sulaw
esi
34,
119
12
4
-
-
-
12
4
0.3
6
-
41,
528
89
-
-
-
89
0.
21
-
2
6
South
Sulaw
esi
177
,36
0
57
6
8
-
-
58
4
0.3
3
-
194
,80
9
17
9
-
-
-
17
9
0.
09
-
2
7
Southe
ast
Sulaw
esi
15,
161
50
9
23
-
-
53
2
3.5
1
-
31,
811
46
-
-
-
46
0.
14
-
2
8
Goron
talo
87,
982
1,5
28
17
23
23
1,5
91
1.8
1
0.0
3
174
,57
5
57
4
-
-
0
57
4
0.
33
0.
00
2
9
West
Sulaw
esi
20,
835
63
9
-
-
-
63
9
3.0
6
-
114
,42
2
20
0
5
-
-
20
4
0.
18
-
3
0
M a l
u k u
4,7
57
46
-
-
-
46
0.9
7
-
7,2
74
8
-
-
-
8
0.
11
-
3
1
North
Maluk
u
2,9
10
6
-
1
19
25
0.8
7
0.6
6
8,0
21
2
-
-
-
2
0.
03
-
3
2
West
Papua
1,3
02
52
-
-
-
52
4.0
1
-
310
38
-
-
-
38
12
.3
2
-
3
3 Papua
1,8
36
15
8
15
-
-
17
3
9.4
3
-
1,5
98
13
-
-
-
13
0.
79
-
Total
1,9
38,
372
11,
62
1
31
6
32
11
6
12,
08
5
0.6
2
0.0
1
2,4
34,
358
4,4
98
10
7
7
10
4,6
22
0.
19
0.
00
Note: PA = Planted Areas, L = Light, M = Medium, S = Severe, F = Harvest Failure.
Source: Data and Information Center, Ministry of Agriculture.
On May 5, 2017, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (MOT) issued regulation 27/2017 on staple
commodities reference prices. The new regulation revokes MOT regulation 63/2016, but leaves corn
reference prices unchanged (See ID1628). Farm gate corn prices are increasing in response to MOA’s
refusal to issue corn import recommendations, lean season corn production, and MOT’s reference price.
Farm gate corn prices currently range between Rp. 3,600/kg ($270/MT) and Rp. 4,400/kg ($331/MT),
compared to Rp. 3,300/kg ($248/MT) to Rp. 3,500/kg ($263/MT) in March 2017. Feed mill-gate corn
prices are increasing to Rp. 4,250/kg ($319/MT) to Rp. 4,750/kg ($357/MT) from Rp. 3,900/kg
($293/MT) in March 2017.
Feed mills report that the first main harvest period of MY2016/17 ran from early January 2017 through
March. Farmers are currently planting the third crop cycle of MY 2016/17 to be harvested around
September or October 2017.
Consumption
The Indonesian feed mill sector consists of 76 feed mills with a total installed capacity of 22 MMT.
Approximately 49 mills are located on Java. The Indonesian Feed Producers Association (Asosiasi
Produsen Pakan Indonesia, APPI) has committed to prioritize domestic corn purchases over imports in
support of MOA’s corn self- sufficiency goals. Corn accounts for 50 percent of feed formulations and
35 percent of poultry feed production costs. APPI notes that expensive domestic corn prices cannot be
passed on to consumers, thus reducing feed mills’ margins. This, combined with the general economic
slowdown categorized by the weak rupiah vis-à-vis the dollar, is expected to continue to slow
commercial poultry feed consumption growth. APPI estimates that Indonesian feed consumption will
increase by 5 percent to 17.0 MMT in MY2016/17.
The poultry industry consumes approximately 83 percent of Indonesia’s animal feed. Aquaculture
consumes 11 percent and the remaining six percent is consumed by cattle and swine. The Indonesian
poultry industry reports that the MY2016/17 poultry population is expected to reach 3.5 billion broilers,
200 million layers, and 24.8 million breeders. Demand for aquaculture feed in MY 2016/17 is estimated
to increase by 10 percent, slower growth than the 13 percent growth in MY2015/16. Slower growth is
due to diseases affecting shrimp production. Due to the continued expansion of existing mills, there is
an additional 1.5 MMT installed capacity, raising total installed capacity of Indonesian feed mills to 22
MMT per annum. Millers report that Indonesian mills are running at 70 – 80 percent capacity.
A new wet mill producing corn starch in East Java has been operational since April 2017. Installed
capacity of the new mill is 86,000 MT of corn starch per year. The new mill will produce corn gluten
meal (12,000 MT of installed capacity per year) and corn gluten feed (48,000 MT of installed capacity
per year) in addition to starch. The facility uses imported corn as raw material. As such, Post maintain
its 2016/17 feed corn consumption estimate, but increases its estimate of corn food, seed and industrial
(FSI) consumption to 3.860 MMT from 3.8 MMT to reflect increasing demand for corn starch raw
material.
Trade
MOA continues to restrict imports of corn and corn substitutes for feed production while allowing corn
imports for FSI. MOT regulation number 20/2016 on corn imports allows only BULOG to import feed
corn. In October 2016 MOT authorized BULOG to import a total of 200,000 MT of corn. BULOG
managed to bring in the corn by the end of 2016. BULOG’s intention was to distribute the imported
corn to micro, small and medium poultry farmers. However, as of early July 2017 BULOG still holds a
total of 52,993 MT of undistributed imported corn. In an effort to prevent storage losses, BULOG plans
to sell the imported corn to commercial feed mills.
Despite feed corn import restrictions, the entrance of the new corn wet mill facility is expected to slightly increase
imports. Therefore, Post increases its 2016/17 corn import estimate to 560,000 MT from its previous estimate of
500,000 MT. According to Global Trade Atlas, Indonesian corn imports originated from the United
States (73 percent), Brazil (13 percent) and Thailand (7 percent) during the period of October 2016 to
May 2017.
RICE, MILLED
Production
Favorable weather and sufficient water from reservoirs provided an opportunity for farmers on irrigated
lowland areas to plant third crop cycle paddy (late June through early July 2017). Humid field
conditions during the dry season, coupled with limited crop rotations, however, resulted in brown
hopper infestations throughout Java and southern Sumatera.
Left and right picture: Bali paddy plantings, early July 2017.
Table 3. Paddy Areas Affected by Main Pest and Disease, CY 2016 and Jan – Jun 2017.
N
o
.
Provin
ce
2016 2017
Plan
ted
Area
Affected Areas
% Affected
Areas to Planted
Areas
Plan
ted
Area
Affected Areas
% Affected
Areas to
Planted Areas
L M S F Tot
al
Tot
al
Aff
ecte
d
F L M S F Tot
al
To
tal
Aff
ect
ed
F
1 Aceh
216,
751
7,9
82
234
32
-
8,2
48
3.8
1
-
228,
863
6,2
85
204
16
-
6,5
05
2.8
4
-
2
North
Sumate
ra
407,
956
2,8
02
144
58
13
3,0
17
0.7
4
0.0
0
537,
459
3,0
38
371
115
6
3,5
30
0.6
6
0.0
0
3
West
Sumate
ra
275,
838
1,4
02
390
133
182
2,1
08
0.7
6
0.0
7
273,
788
674
213
60
19
966
0.3
5
0.0
1
4 R i a u
40,9
86
1,0
36
518
320
3
1,8
76
4.5
8
0.0
1
34,1
94
395
189
4
2
590
1.7
3
0.0
1
5 J a m b
i
103,
389
1,1
23
377
56
19
1,5
75
1.5
2
0.0
2
85,0
68
620
75
28
24
747
0.8
8
0.0
3
6
South
Sumate
ra
536,
037
28,
240
2,9
20
997
425
32,
582
6.0
8
0.0
8
420,
076
17,
292
455
218
86
18,
050
4.3
0
0.0
2
7 Bengku
lu
102,
081
1,6
54
266
16
1
1,9
37
1.9
0
0.0
0
86,2
99
1,0
37
107
9
6
1,1
59
1.3
4
0.0
1
8 Lampu
ng
531,
560
7,1
37
480
69
-
7,6
85
1.4
5
-
439,
062
7,3
55
675
203
4
8,2
37
1.8
8
0.0
0
9
Bangka
Belitun
g
3,61
4
711
1
-
1
714
19.
75
0.0
3
8,15
0
273
3
-
5
280
3.4
3
0.0
6
1
0
Riau
Islands
173
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
173
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
1 Jakarta
677
62
-
-
-
62
9.0
9
-
472
63
-
-
-
63
13.
25
-
1
2
West
Java
1,31
5,82
1
46,
014
348
37
-
46,
399
3.5
3
-
1,15
6,45
4
52,
006
1,0
38
273
20
53,
336
4.6
1
0.0
0
13
Central Java
1,214,00
7
44,714
4,631
327
25
49,698
4.09
0.00
1,034,68
9
49,198
4,571
574
296
54,639
5.28
0.03
1
4
Yogyak
arta
68,0
07
3,7
13
555
6
49
4,3
23
6.3
6
0.0
7
61,9
14
2,6
79
138
1
3
2,8
21
4.5
6
0.0
0
1
5
East
Java
1,41
2,89
7
24,
021
4,2
76
637
32
28,
966
2.0
5
0.0
0
1,09
9,15
4
32,
261
3,8
11
625
192
36,
888
3.3
6
0.0
2
1
6 Banten
276,
880
6,2
26
42
3
-
6,2
71
2.2
6
-
235,
724
8,8
80
916
416
282
10,
493
4.4
5
0.1
2
1
7 B a l i
91,7
24
1,9
28
130
9
100
2,1
67
2.3
6
0.1
1
78,4
83
2,1
85
102
69
7
2,3
63
3.0
1
0.0
1
18
West
Nusa Tengga
ra
329,132
4,392
53
12
-
4,457
1.35
-
240,271
3,047
62
2
-
3,111
1.29
-
1
9
East
Nusa
Tengga
ra
182,
982
5,0
60
-
-
-
5,0
60
2.7
7
-
167,
339
3,7
57
-
-
-
3,7
57
2.2
5
-
2
0
West
Kalima
ntan
139,
866
1,4
40
117
5
7
1,5
69
1.1
2
0.0
1
121,
347
1,7
54
21
-
23
1,7
98
1.4
8
0.0
2
2
1
Central
Kalima
ntan
135,
732
2,0
89
35
10
-
2,1
34
1.5
7
-
126,
515
509
-
-
-
509
0.4
0
-
2
2
South Kalima
ntan
402,
097
971
319
87
22
1,3
99
0.3
5
0.0
1
377,
977
616
372
49
28
1,0
65
0.2
8
0.0
1
2
3
East
Kalima
ntan
54,8
24
2,3
60
399
10
-
2,7
69
5.0
5
-
36,4
55
2,8
47
256
6
-
3,1
09
8.5
3
-
2
4
North
Sulawe
si
80,2
39
344
-
-
-
344
0.4
3
-
76,0
47
541
2
-
41
584
0.7
7
0.0
5
2
5
Central Sulawe
si
160,
551
4,6
09
286
276
434
5,6
05
3.4
9
0.2
7
157,
832
1,7
09
76
14
146
1,9
45
1.2
3
0.0
9
2
6
South
Sulawe
si
871,
044
12,
242
360
44
22
12,
667
1.4
5
0.0
0
732,
207
4,9
95
220
69
7
5,2
91
0.7
2
0.0
0
2
7
Southea
st
Sulawe
si
123,
308
8,4
83
640
59
123
9,3
05
7.5
5
0.1
0
105,
349
6,3
82
122
58
68
6,6
30
6.2
9
0.0
6
2
8
Goronta
lo
37,544
1,817
50
-
12
1,879
5.01
0.03
30,125
2,117
0
2
-
2,119
7.03
-
2
9
West
Sulawe
si
91,2
42
3,8
43
42
3
214
4,1
02
4.5
0
0.2
3
72,2
12
5,2
63
170
20
1
5,4
54
7.5
5
0.0
0
3
0
M a l u
k u
17,2
57
1,4
79
338
75
-
1,8
91
10.
96
-
14,7
82
764
-
-
-
764
5.1
7
-
3
1
North
Maluku
13,2
82
600
9
-
-
609
4.5
8
-
13,1
68
116
15
-
-
131
1.0
0
-
3
2
West
Papua
3,74
4
384
-
-
-
384
10.
24
-
1,99
0
418
-
-
-
418
21.
01
-
3
3 Papua
42,4
31
1,3
33
174
235
-
1,7
42
4.1
1
-
47,8
84
46
19
-
-
65
0.1
4
-
Total
9,28
3,67
3
230
,21
2
18,
132
3,5
14
1,6
84
253
,54
2
2.7
3
0.0
2
8,10
1,52
0
219
,12
0
14,
203
2,8
29
1,2
66
237
,41
7
2.9
3
0.0
2
Note: PA = Planted Areas, L = Light, M = Medium, S = Severe, F = Harvest Failure.
Source: Data and Information Center, Ministry of Agriculture.
Third crop harvest will take place in October 2017, with Post expecting an expansion of paddy planting
area in North Sumatera, Lampung, and West Kalimantan due to the late arriving dry season. While
planted area is expanding, farmers are also reporting brown hopper infestations. Pesticide companies in
Central Java are reporting significant pesticide sale increases in July 2017 in response to these
infestations, with the Ministry of Agriculture distributing pesticide assistance in brown hopper infested
areas as well as providing additional field officials to respond to the pest problem. Considering
expanded plant area and brown hopper infestations, Post maintains its 2016/17 and 2017/18 production
estimates unchanged. Post will continue observing the planting progress.
Trade
BULOG has set its procurement target at 3.7 MMT of milled rice equivalent for MY 2016/17. BULOG
normally meets 60 percent of its procurement target during the first main harvest period (before June).
As of the middle of July 2017, BULOG domestic procurement totaled 1.3 MMT of milled rice
equivalent, about 30 percent of its procurement target. This is lower than the 1.96 MMT of milled rice
equivalent procured during the same period of MY2015/16. Despite flexibility provided under MOA
regulation No. 3/2017 for BULOG to buy paddy and rice above or below the required quality, BULOG
is struggling to meet its target. Post notes that prices for medium quality paddy and rice remain well
above the government purchasing price, while tighter competition with rice millers is impeding
BULOG’s procurement efforts during the first and second harvests.
BULOG is required to maintain a minimum year end stock level of 2 MMT. Indonesian regulations
restrict rice imports one month prior to, during, and two months after the main harvest period.
Indonesian regulation no. 103/2015 only permits BULOG to import medium quality rice with a
maximum 25 percent broken grains. Private companies can import specialty rice (jasmine rice, basmati
rice, sushi rice, rice for diabetics and rice seed, for example). The purpose of medium quality rice
imports by BULOG is to maintain rice price stability, to overcome post disaster circumstances, and for
distributions to the poor and food-insecure. According to Indonesian regulations, the GOI may decide to
authorize BULOG to import medium quality rice after considering BULOG stock levels, disparity
between average rice prices and the government purchasing price, and the national rice surplus estimate.
Private sector importers holding a producer importer identification number can import specialty rice
once an import approval from the Ministry of Trade is obtained. The import permit is valid for six
months in the current year.
With BULOG’s procurement realization below 50 percent as of July, it seems unlikely that BULOG will
meet its target with production from the third harvest (which contributes about 15-20 percent of
Indonesia’s total production). Considering that BULOG must still distribute another 1.4 MMT of rice
under rice for the poor program, GOI will need to reconsider efforts to maintain BULOG’s stock at the
mandated level. Post notes that the authority to procure, import, manage stocks, and set government
purchasing prices for paddy and rice rests with the Ministry of Agriculture (Presidential Decree No.
20/2017). MOA is expected to continue to aggressively pursue rice self-sufficiency policies. Therefore,
it is unlikely that the GOI will authorize BULOG to import in the near future.
During the January to May 2017 period, Global Trade Atlas reported that Indonesia imported rice from
Thailand (53 percent) and India (22 percent). All of the rice was imported by the private sector.
Indonesian regulations state that only BULOG can import rice with a maximum of 25 percent broken,
while state own companies, provincial owned companies, and private sector exporters can import rice
with a maximum of 5 percent broken. According to Global Trade Atlas, Indonesia exported rice to Sri
Lanka (92 percent), Canada (4 percent), and Ghana (1 percent) during the period of January to May
2017. Total volume exported was 5,380 MT.
Based on the abovementioned situation, Post does not make any changes to Indonesian trade estimates.
Consumption
In MY 2016/17 the GOI modified the raskin program, changing its name to “Rice for the Prosperous
(beras sejahtera, rastra).” The program is now broken into two parts: the regular rastra distribution as
well as the unintuitively named non-cash food aid program (Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai, BPNT), which
distributes cash cards for participants to redeem rice and sugar on the open market. BULOG will
continue to implement both programs. In MY 2016/17 BULOG will distribute rastra to a total of 14.4
million families, while another 1.1 million families (formerly raskin recipients) will receive the non-
cash food aid (BPNT) card. Every family under the regular rastra program will receive 15 kg of rice at
the price of Rp. 1,600/kg ($119/MT) per month. Under BPNT, the GOI will deposit Rp. 110,000 ($8.20)
onto each card. The card recipients who reside in 44 pilot project cities can swipe the card at selected
stores for a total of 10 kg of rice and 2 kg of sugar. As of middle of July 2017, BULOG has distributed
a total of 1,051,000 MT of milled rice to rastra recipients.
Post noticed no significant changes in rice consumption trends. Therefore, Post maintains the estimate of
MY 2016/17 and MY 2017/18 as is.
Prices
The price of wet paddy and rice remains above the government’s purchasing price. Current farm gate
prices of wet paddy in Java range from Rp. 3,500/kg ($263/MT) to 4,800/kg ($361/MT). Despite some
brown hoppers infestations, rice traders reported that small harvests on Java have maintained continuous
supply to Jakarta’s rice wholesale market. Combined with lower post-Ramadhan demand, medium
quality rice prices at the Cipinang wholesale market have fallen slightly, from Rp. 10,200/kg ($767/MT)
in June 2017 to Rp. 10,000/kg ($752/MT) on July 24, 2017.
PSD TABLES
Table 4. PSD: WHEAT
Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 Market Begin Year Jul 2015 Jul 2016 Jul 2017
Indonesia USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Stocks 1316 1316 2057 2057 2257 1657
Production 0 0 0 0 0 0
MY Imports 10116 10116 9900 9900 9500 9500
TY Imports 10116 10116 9900 9900 9500 9500
TY Imp. from U.S. 799 799 0 1000 0 940
Total Supply 11432 11432 11957 11957 11757 11157
MY Exports 275 275 300 300 300 300
TY Exports 275 275 300 300 300 300
Feed and Residual 1600 1600 1200 1800 500 700
FSI Consumption 7500 7500 8200 8200 8600 8600
Total Consumption 9100 9100 9400 10000 9100 9300
Ending Stocks 2057 2057 2257 1657 2357 1557
Total Distribution 11432 11432 11957 11957 11757 11157
Yield 0 0 0 0 0 0
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
Note: Figures in the “New Post” columns are not USDA Official figures.
Table 5. PSD: CORN
Corn 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 Market Begin Year Oct 2015 Oct 2016 Oct 2017
Indonesia USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested 3300 3300 3400 3400 3500 3500
Beginning Stocks 1666 1666 1823 1823 1013 1018
Production 10500 10500 10900 10900 11350 11350
MY Imports 1778 1778 500 560 500 500
TY Imports 1778 1778 500 560 500 500
TY Imp. from U.S. 185 185 0 420 0 180
Total Supply 13944 13944 13223 13283 12863 12868
MY Exports 21 21 10 5 10 5
TY Exports 21 21 10 5 10 5
Feed and Residual 8000 8000 8400 8400 8600 8600
FSI Consumption 4100 4100 3800 3860 3600 3600
Total Consumption 12100 12100 12200 12260 12200 12200
Ending Stocks 1823 1823 1013 1018 653 663
Total Distribution 13944 13944 13223 13283 12863 12868
Yield 3.1818 3.1818 3.2059 3.2059 3.2429 3.2429
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)
Note: Figures in the “New Post” columns are not USDA Official figures.
Table 6. Indonesian Paddy Harvested Area, Yield, and Production
By Crop Cycle and Ecosystem
January - April May - August September - December January- December
Ye
ar
Harveste
d Yield
Producti
on
Harveste
d Yield Production
Harveste
d Yield
Producti
on
Harvest
ed Yield
Producti
on
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/
Ha) (Ton)
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/
Ha) (Ton)
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/
Ha) (Ton)
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/Ha
) (Ton)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13)
Paddy Total
201
7*
6,541,38
7 51.74
33,842,9
04
5,382,47
0 52.91
28,467,584
3,633,25
5 52.97
19,247,0
05
15,555,112 52.43
81,557,
493
201
6
5,982,19
0 52.49
31,399,7
05
5,330,19
0 51.86
27,643,361
3,844,57
2 52.84
20,315,3
73
15,156,952 52.36
79,358,
439
201
5
6,157,83
7 53.68
33,057,1
15
4,945,47
3 52.12 25,776,257
3,013,32
8 54.97
16,564,4
69 14,116,638 53.41
75,397,
841
201
4
6,204,91
0 50.87
31,562,7
89
4,452,13
5 51.12 22,757,916
3,140,26
2 52.63
16,525,7
60 13,797,307 51.35
70,846,
465
201
3
6,272,32
3 51.65
32,398,6
77
4,510,18
9 50.92 22,967,655
3,052,74
0 52.13
15,913,3
77 13,835,252 51.52
71,279,
709
Irrigated Paddy
201
7*
5,670,74
9 54.73
31,034,5
29
5,154,25
8 53.73 27,694,778
3,550,17
8 53.51
18,995,8
42 14,375,186 54.07
77,725,
149
201
6
5,118,50
7 55.85
28,588,5
79
5,085,67
9 52.69 26,797,461
3,781,74
1 53.15
20,100,1
89 13,985,927 53.97
75,486,
229
201
5
5,266,98
6 57.13
30,088,6
36
4,784,12
3 52.74 25,229,780
2,978,12
8 55.23
16,448,0
80 13,029,237 55.08
71,766,
496
201
4
5,271,67
5 53.97
28,449,1
16
4,317,11
6 51.66 22,302,870
3,077,42
6 53.13
16,350,3
75 12,666,347 52.98
67,102,
361
201
3
5,303,79
4 54.91
29,124,5
07
4,378,88
7 51.46 22,533,292
2,989,32
2 52.63
15,733,8
09 12,672,003 53.18
67,391,
608
Rainfed Paddy
201
7* 870,638 32.26
2,808,37
4 226,212 34.16 772,806 83,077 30.23 251,163 1,179,927 32.48
3,832,3
43
201
6 863,683 32.55
2,811,12
7 244,512 34.60 845,901 62,831 34.25 215,183 1,171,026 33.07
3,872,2
11
201
5 890,851 33.32
2,968,47
9 161,350 33.87 546,477 35,200 33.07 116,389 1,087,401 33.39
3,631,3
45
201
4 933,235 33.36
3,113,67
3 134,889 33.73 455,046 62,836 27.91 175,385 1,130,960 33.11
3,744,1
04
201
3 968,529 33.81
3,274,17
0 131,302 33.08 434,363 63,418 28.31 179,568 1,163,249 33.42
3,888,1
01
Source: Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS) and MOA.
Note: *: First forecast figures.
Table 7. Indonesian Corn Harvested Area, Yield, and Production By Crop Cycle
January - April May - August September - December January- December
Year Harvest
ed Yield
Producti
on
Harvest
ed Yield
Producti
on
Harvest
ed Yield
Producti
on
Harvest
ed Yield
Producti
on
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/H
a) (Ton)
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/H
a) (Ton)
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/H
a) (Ton)
Area
(Ha)
(Cwt/H
a) (Ton)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13)
Corn
2017
*
2,363,2
06 49.58
11,716,8
20
1,584,0
52 52.14
8,259,81
1
1,100,1
35 54.99
6,049,85
5
5,047,3
92 51.56
26,026,4
86
2016
2,114,8
99 50.31
10,640,4
90
1,287,1
38 53.25
6,854,09
0
1,042,3
06 58.37
6,083,71
3
4,444,3
43 53.05
23,578,2
93
2015
1,948,0
50 48.99
9,544,01
2
1,133,9
24 51.19
5,804,24
9 705,393 60.45
4,264,17
4
3,787,3
67 51.78
19,612,4
35
2014
1,890,5
01 45.54
8,608,93
5
1,155,7
14 50.97
5,891,11
0 790,804 57.01
4,508,38
1
3,837,0
19 49.54
19,008,4
26
2013
1,939,7
96 45.49
8,823,36
8
1,089,6
91 48.74
5,310,77
8 792,017 55.27
4,377,70
7
3,821,5
04 48.44
18,511,8
53
Source: Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS) and MOA.
Note: *: First forecast figures.
Table 8. Exchange Rate Yea
r Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
201
6
13,84
6
13,39
5
13,27
6
13,20
4
13,61
5
13,18
0
13,09
4
13,30
0
12,99
8
13,05
1
13,56
3
13,43
6
2017
13,343
13,352
13,308
13,327
13,321
13,319
13,304
Note: Exchange rate is Rp. 13,304/USD 1, as of July 19, 2017.