Industrial Motors & Drives Global Market Update
Alex Chausovsky Research Director
Motors & Mechanical Power Transmission
March 2012
Research Methodology Description
Economic Update
Global Market Updates
• Low Voltage Motors
• Medium Voltage Motors
• Low Voltage Motor Drives
• Medium Voltage Motor Drives
Questions?
Presentation Overview
Research Methodology Description
Base Year Data: Primary Research
Collect sales revenues and unit shipments from leading suppliers to each product market via Excel-based questionnaires: high participation rates
Supplement data collection with extensive interviews with strategic marketing and product management personnel
Consult with leading industry trade, distributor and end-user associations
Consider data from multiple quarterly trackers: Drives, PLCs, etc.
Forecasting: Primary & Secondary Research
• Economic forecasts (GDP) sourced from IMF
• Machinery Production (MP) forecasts are sourced from IMS Research’s annual Worldwide Machinery Production Yearbook study
• Interviews provide insight into which market segments will outperform or underperform in the future
Economic Growth in Developed Regions (N. Am, EU, Japan)
Economic Update
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
GD
P G
row
th (
%)
Developed Regions - GDP Data
Canada
US
Germany
France
Europe
Japan
Economic Growth in Developing Regions (Brazil, China, India, etc.)
Economic Update
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
GD
P G
row
th (
%)
Developing Regions - GDP Data
Brazil
Rest of South America
China
India
Rest of Asia
Russia & CIS
Middle East & Africa
Commodity Prices
Economic Update M
ar-0
6
Jun
-06
Sep
-06
De
c-0
6
Mar
-07
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
De
c-0
7
Mar
-08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
De
c-1
0
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
De
c-1
1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Monthly Commodity Price Indices (2005 = 100)
Oil
Metals
Total Commodities
Products Covered:
IE1 (Standard Efficiency) Eff2 and below; Below EPAct
IE2 (High Efficiency) Eff1; EPAct
IE3 (Premium Efficiency) Above Eff1; NEMA Premium
IE4 (Super Premium Efficiency) Much higher than Eff1; Above NEMA Premium
Other Non-classified 8 / 10 / 12 pole motors
>375kW
Submersible motors
Fire pump motors
All motors that fall outside NEMA and/or IEC
DC Motors
The World Market for Low Voltage Motors
Low Voltage Motors – Market Data
≈ 44 million low voltage motors shipped in 2010
$13,541.2
$10,912.8$12,471.9
$14,975.0
$17,444.9
$20,121.9
$22,969.7
$26,068.6
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gro
wth
(%)
Rev
enu
es (
$M
)
Low Voltage Motors MarketMarket Size ($M) and Growth
Revenues
Growth
Low Voltage Motors – Legislative Timeline
Source: IMS Research Feb-12
Timeline for Motor Efficiency Class Transitions Around the World
IE2: Canada & US
IE2: Mexico
EuP Directive signed in EU
IE2: Oceania
EISA signed in US
IE1: China (Grade 1,2,3)
IE2: S. Korea, Phase 1
ErP Directive signed in EU
IE2: Brazil
IE2: S. Korea, Phase 2
IE3: US
IE2: EU, Phase 1
IE3: Canada
IE2+: China
IE3: EU, Phase 2
IE3: EU, Phase 3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Low Voltage Motors – Market Data
IE1$6,833.9 54.8%
IE2$3,805.3 30.5%
IE3$401.1 3.2%
IE4$137.0 1.1%
DC$510.7 4.1%
Others$783.9 6.3%
2010 Low Voltage Motors MarketProduct Type Breakdown ($M)
Low Voltage Motors – Market Data
IE1, 54.8%
IE1, 8.2%
IE2, 30.5%
IE2, 58.8%
IE3, 3.2%
IE3, 19.9%
IE4 (PM), 1.1% IE4 (PM), 4.8%DC, 4.1% DC, 1.5%
Others, 6.3% Others, 6.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015
Low Voltage Motors MarketProduct Type Composition 2010 vs. 2015
Low Voltage Motors – Market Data
EMEA$4,129.6 33.1%
Americas$3,554.9 28.5%
Rest of Asia$2,106.5 16.9%
China$2,680.9 21.5%
2010 Low Voltage Motors MarketRegional Breakdown ($M)
Products Covered:
Voltage 1kV - 2.3kV
3.3kV
4.16kV
5kV - 7.2kV
10kV - 11kV
Above 11kV
Power Rating Below 200kW
200kW - 500kW
501kW - 1.5MW
1.6MW - 7.4MW
7.5MW - 12MW
Above 12MW
The World Market for Medium Voltage Motors
Rotor Structure Asynchronous
Synchronous
DC
Medium Voltage Motors – Market Data
≈ 40,000 medium voltage motors shipped in 2010
$4,811.5$5,060.5
$3,968.4 $4,078.4
$4,500.3
$4,913.6
$5,325.3
$5,754.7
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gro
wth
(%)
Rev
enu
es (
$M
)
Medium Voltage Motors MarketMarket Size ($M) and Growth
Revenues
Growth
Medium Voltage Motors – Market Data
Below 200kW$93.3 2.4%
200 - 500kW$576.7 14.5%
501kW to 1.5MW
$1,011.9 25.5%
1.6 to 7.4 MW$1,277.7
32.2%
7.5 to 12 MW$614.1 15.5%
Above 12MW$394.7 9.9%
2010 Medium Voltage Motors MarketProduct Type Breakdown ($M)
Medium Voltage Motors – Market Data
EMEA$1,349.6 34.0%
Americas$1,181.5 29.8%
Asia Pacific$1,437.3 36.2%
2010 Medium Voltage Motors MarketRegional Breakdown ($M)
Products Covered:
Compact AC Drives <25kW; typically used in fan & pump applications
Standard AC Drives <500kW; typically used in material handling and packaging applications
Premium AC Drives 1kW through largest; most demanding applications
DC Drives SCR based drives that control DC motors
Software
Services
The World Market for Low Voltage Drives
Low Voltage Drives – Market Data
≈ 17 million low voltage motor drives shipped in 2010
$10,794.2
$9,199.3$10,430.2
$12,638.3
$14,274.9
$16,087.6
$18,306.7
$21,030.7
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gro
wth
(%)
Rev
enu
es (
$M
)
Low Voltage Motor Drives MarketMarket Size ($M) and Growth
Revenues
Growth
Low Voltage Drives – Market Data
AC Compact$1,793.3 17.2%
AC Standard$3,953.6 37.9%
AC Premium$3,584.3 34.4%
DC$323.2 3.1%
Software$150.8 1.4%
Services$625.1 6.0%
2010 Low Voltage Drives MarketProduct Type Breakdown ($M)
Low Voltage Drives – Market Data
Americas$2,077.0 21.5%
Asia Pacific$3,568.5 37.0%
EMEA$3,321.9 34.4%
Japan$686.9 7.1%
2010 Low Voltage Drives MarketRegion Breakdown ($M)
Hardware Only
Low Voltage Drives – Market Data
<2.2kW$1,661.3 17.2%
2.2kW to 7.4kW
$1,663.9 17.2%
7.5kW to 22kW$1,854.1 19.2%
23kW to 75kW$1,580.1 16.4%
76kW to 110kW$507.1 5.3%
111kW to 500kW
$1,405.3 14.6%
>500kW$982.5 10.2%
2010 Low Voltage Drives MarketPower Rating Breakdown ($M)
Hardware Only
Products Covered:
Voltage 1kV - 2.3kV
3.3kV
4.16kV
5kV - 7.2kV
10kV - 11kV
Above 11kV
Power Rating < 500kW
500kW to 1MW
1.1MW to 3MW
3.1MW to 5MW
5.1MW to 7MW
7.1MW to 10MW
> 10MW
The World Market for Medium Voltage Drives
Medium Voltage Drives – Market Data
≈ 8,800 medium voltage motor drives shipped in 2010
$2,215.4
$1,934.1$2,092.7
$2,458.5
$2,840.0
$3,232.5
$3,675.2
$4,202.1
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gro
wth
(%)
Rev
enu
es (
$M
)
Medium Voltage Motor Drives MarketMarket Size ($M) and Growth
Revenues
Growth
Medium Voltage Drives – Market Data
Americas$563.4 26.9%
Asia Pacific$935.0 44.7%
EMEA$499.8 23.9%
Japan$94.5 4.5%
2010 Medium Voltage Drives MarketRegion Breakdown ($M)
Medium Voltage Drives – Market Data
< 500kW$135.3 6.5%
500kW to 1MW$305.1 14.6%
1.1MW to 3MW$598.0 28.6%
3.1MW to 5MW$271.5 13.0%
5.1MW to 7MW$241.2 11.5%
7.1MW to 10MW$223.7 10.7%
> 10MW$317.8 15.2%
2010 Medium Voltage Drives MarketPower Rating Breakdown ($M)
Speaker contact information
Alex Chausovsky Research Director - Motors & Mechanical Power Transmission IMS Research Austin, Texas, USA Phone: (512) 582-2012 E-mail: [email protected] www.imsresearch.com
Questions?