Download - Innovation in forward looking Hazard Modelling Paul Davies.ppt · High winds cause rail chaos Falling tree moment on CCTV Trees block roads in Wiltshire Insurers prepare for storm

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Innovation in forward looking Hazard ModellingPaul Davies, Met Office Chief Meteorologist

Typhoon Haiyan


WMO Fact Finding MissionGoing the extra mile

Going the extra mile – can science deliver??

Many people didn’t understand what is meant by ‘storm surge’

STAKEHOLDER MEETING, MANILA 2014

Holistic approach to impact and risk

ENVIRONMENTALPREDICTION

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY

IMPACT

QUANTIFYING &

REDUCING RISK

HYDROMET, CLIMATE & GEO-

PHYSICAL

Major Uncertainty

Some progress, still a limiting factor

Considerable progress

St Jude WindstormSevere gales 28 October 2014

Storm-resolving forecastsUKV forecast

Low RiskMaximum Risk on the UK Road Network

Low - Medium Risk

Medium - High Risk

High Risk

03Z 06Z 09Z00Z

Hazard Impact Modelling Wind impact on the transport network

Communicating the messageConveying uncertainty


Recognising the challengesIncreasing our vulnerability and exposure

Download - Innovation in forward looking Hazard Modelling Paul Davies.ppt · High winds cause rail chaos Falling tree moment on CCTV Trees block roads in Wiltshire Insurers prepare for storm

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