Download - INONI Geopolitical Continuity Planning 2
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Continuity and Resilience (CORE) ISO 22301 BCM Consulting Firm
Presentations by speakers at the
6th Middle East Business & IT Resilience Summit
Mar 30, 2017 at The Address – Dubai Mall Our Contact Details:
UAE INDIA
Continuity and Resilience
P. O. Box 127557
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Mobile:+971 50 8460530
Tel: +971 2 8152831
Fax: +971 2 8152888
Email: [email protected]
Continuity and Resilience
Level 15,Eros Corporate Tower
Nehru Place ,New Delhi-110019
Tel: +91 11 41055534/ +91 11 41613033
Fax: ++91 11 41055535
Email: [email protected]
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GEOPOLITICAL CONTINUITY
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Contents
Our GPR Risk Climate
01 Understanding the Situation
02 Impact Analysis
03 The Effect of Insurance
04 The Outcome for Planning
05 Conclusions
06
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01 Geopolitical Risk Climate
• Increasing cyber-threats against organisations, infrastructure and governments
• Growing regional no-go zones, live conflicts Syria, Ukraine, Yemen, Iraq, North Korea
• Greater US introspection and discontinuity, Trump election and policy uncertainty
• European political fragmentation, populism, xenophobia, protectionism, Brexit
• Rise of political technology (GAFM) opaque, non-democratic, unpredictable, invisible
• Russian austerity and opportunism, Turkey, Syria and Ukraine, with eyes on EU
• China economic expansion and globalisation, Africa
• Failed states and power vacuums
• Extremist groups and insurgencies, ISIS
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• Mostly people-related but may combine with other risk sources
• Hot spots act as ignition points, media and Internet transform, accelerate and amplify
• Butterfly effect, becoming more chaotic and unpredictable as we add energy
• Faster transmission and more manipulation mean LESS TIME to detect, understand and respond
• Characterised by high uncertainty and surprise for those who failed to foresee outcomes
02 Understanding the Situation
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02 Organisational Effects
• Take two similar organisations faced with Brexit.
• One survives, the other fails due to GPR in its customer base and supply
chain.
• GPR is a reflection of where you are, what you do, how you connect.
• It suggests a whole-environment risk viewpoint to manage continuity.
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03 Impact Analysis
Geopolitical risks make us consider global socio-economic and political impacts. We feel these
via:
Then cumulatively via loss of revenue, growth, reputation, compliance, work, wealth and well-
being
THEY DRIVE CONTINUITY, FOCUS RESILIENCE AND ENHANCE BIA
• Restrictions on trade and movement of goods
• Commodity price volatility
• Supply chain disruption
• Loss of access to markets, demand, influence or funding
• Termination of operating license
• Safety and welfare of staff
• Physical loss of access
• Availability and cost of labour, border controls
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04 The Effect of Insurance
• Business Interruption insurance cover for 3 years.
• Financial impact within this time is nil BUT it could take 18 months to rebuild.
• In fact impact is shifted to customer retention and reputation.
• Rebuild must be fast BUT re-supplying customers must be near-immediate.
• Changed emphasis to alternatives, re-invention, white-labelling, outsourcing, modifying lines,
surplus capacity, strategic re-alignment.
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05 The Outcome for Planning
• GPR can close countries. Few alternatives (for manufacturers) means self-sufficiency.
• We must find the capacity to keep strategic clients. Crisis comms.
• Insurance relegates non-catastrophic incidents. Fewer scenarios but regional or global scale.
• Do we contain impact or share it? Which lines do we keep and which do we sacrifice?
• Influences business-as-usual strategic thinking. We MUST have a working solution.
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06 Conclusions
• We all have a unique GPR profile but manufacturers may be more vulnerable.
• Business decisions surround creation of affordable capacity.
• Insurance buys time and simplifies plans but doesn’t replace them.
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