FLEET PRICES END 2020 £1,387 HIGHER THAN 2019
UNSOLD AFV VOLUMES RISE DUE TO INFLATED USED PRICES
AVERAGE DIESEL PRICES RISE £1,024 TO £9,070 IN 2020
USED VAN PRICES RISE BY 66.3% IN JUST 12 MONTHS
USED MARKET REPORT Q4/2020INSIGHTS
Q4 used market commentary2021 Outlook
2020 ended with more of a seasonal finish to the year and increased number of cars being sold in December than prior years after the lockdown period of November.
Dealers looking for stock over the Christmas period contributed to the success of two sales over Xmas for Zenith and The Car Buying Group which saw conversion rates of mid 90s and healthy prices.
Late and Low prices continued to rise hitting the £17,000 level for the first ever time due to stock being very thin on the ground while fleet prices fell slightly during the quarter. However, at £11,186 fleet prices were still £1,213 higher than in Q1 and the second highest on record, showing how the market has moved during 2020.
AFV prices rose again to £14,208 but continued to be out of kilter with equivalent petrol and diesel models which is impacting conversion rates, and vendors are being left with unsold stock which suggests the guides need to re-evaluate prices in Q1 2020.
The Young and Budget dealer part exchange sector saw prices rise during Q4 with demand high in both areas. With dealers closed at the end of December a shortage of stock started to occur which forced prices up in what was the consumer sweet spot of between £8-10,000, while the Budget sector continues to see stock sold for £1,200.
LCV prices say saw another massive rise in Q4 to £7,608 which remarkably is a gain of £2,685 since Q1 2020. Double cab pick-ups also rose again to a record level of £11,211.
We have seen demand fall back during early January as dealer sales volumes have been impacted by the third lockdown. But with the volume of part exchanges coming into the market impacted then we believe prices will remain strong during Q1 due to stock shortages. This is likely to continue until we see the new 71-plate change in March feed more stock into the market.
We will see used fleet sales volumes reduce in Q1 but once again do not see prices being too badly impacted as so many of the leasing providers continue to report record levels of contract extensions which will compromise stock levels. It may even be late in 2021 before we see the fleet sector volumes stabilise on the back of all the contract extensions experienced since lockdown 1.0 in March 2020.
Late and low prices will continue as rental companies have completed their fleet re-sizing exercises so stock will remain in very short supply. Some companies have been calling back used van stock heading for auction as this sector is extremely busy and new vehicle supply is still not back to normal. Based on demand and restricted supply used van prices will continue to rise during 2021.
Unsold AFV stock volumes are running at between 20-40% for some fleet vendors in 2021 which would normally run at 5% which reinforces our concerns for some months that the guides have this stock overpriced. We encourage them to revisit these prices during Q1, following signs that consumers cannot justify any longer the extra investment in a used hybrid or EV.
Martin PotterMD – Customer
WELCOME FROM MARTIN POTTER, MD – CUSTOMER
2
Source SMMT www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data
Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: “2020 will be seen as a ‘lost year’ for Automotive, with the sector under pandemic-enforced shutdown for much of the year and uncertainty over future trading conditions taking their toll. However, with the rollout of vaccines and clarity over our new relationship with the EU, we must make 2021 a year of recovery. With
manufacturers bringing record numbers of electrified vehicles to market over the coming months, we will work with government to encourage drivers to make the switch, while promoting investment in our globally-renowned manufacturing base – recharging the market, industry and economy.”
3
OVERALL MARKET TREND
LATE AND LOW MARKET PROFILE (12-24 months)
23,000
22,500
22,000
21,500
21,000
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
18,000
17,500
17,000
16,500
16,000
15,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
23
22.5
22
21.5
21
20.5
20
19.5
19
18.5
18
17.5
17
16.5
16
15.5
15
AGEMILEAGE
AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE MILEAGE AVERAGE AGE
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
£13,347
£14,457£14,243
£15,129£15,261
£16,383
£17,019
£14,344£14,026
£13,200£13,116
£13,947
£15,589
£15,158£15,248
£14,738
• Prices rose by 3.8% (£636) in Q4 as supply levels fell again.
• Prices look set to remain high throughout 2021 as rental companies keep fleet levels at optimal levels.
• Sector prices rose by an extraordinary 12.5% (£1,890) during 2020.
• During that time average age reduced from 20-16 months and average mileage reduced from 20,000 miles to 13,000 which helped increase prices alongside low stock levels.
SUMMARY
4
43.0
42.8
42.6
42.4
42.2
42.0
41.8
41.6
41.4
41.2
41.0
40.8
40.6
40.4
40.2
40.0
39.8
39.6
39.4
57,000
56,000
55,000
54,000
53,000
52,000
51,000
50,000
49,000
48,000
47,000
46,000
45,000
44,000
43,000
42,000
41,000
40,000
39,000
38,000
37,000
36,000
AGEMILEAGE
FLEET MARKET PROFILE (24-60 months)
AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE MILEAGE AVERAGE AGE
£9,173£9,111
£8,916
£9,396
£9,198
£9,960 £10,009
£9,521
£9,233
£9,036
£9,799
£9,973
£10,938
£11,653
£11,186
£10,086
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
• Prices fell by 4% (£467) during the quarter as demand was compromised by various lockdown trading restrictions.
• Fleet prices ended 2020 £1,387 higher than 2019 which reinforces how the market has changed in just 12 months.
• Average age fell from 43 to 40 months and not surprisingly miles fell by from 50,000 to 39,000 miles on average.
SUMMARY
5
OVERALL MARKET FUEL TYPES
HYBRID/ELECTRIC DIESEL PETROL
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
£
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020Q1 2020
£13
,616
£8,156
£3,9
61
£13
,558
£8,8
11£4,137
£13
,073
£8,7
51
£4,3
25
£12
,714
£8,8
18£4,6
51
£13
,736
£7,5
01
£4,2
06
£13
,636
£7,5
11£4,3
06
£14
,012
£13
,375
£14
,275
£14
,027
£14
,208
£13
,332
£7,3
90
£8,0
46
£9,9
99
£9,9
33
£9,0
70
£7,6
13
£4,2
13
£4,4
70
£6,9
48
£6,5
06
£6,152
£4,9
10
£10
,602
£8,2
57
£3,6
80
£11,4
81
£8,169
£3,6
44
£12
,577
£8,4
34
£4,0
91
£11,3
65
£8,7
00
£4,0
05
• AFV prices rose to £14,308 but sales volumes were impacted by these high prices.
• AFV prices rose by 6.2% (£833) in 2020.
• Diesel prices rose from £8,046 in Q4 2019 to £9,070 in 2020, a rise of £1,024.
• Petrol prices also rose during from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020 by 37.6%.
SUMMARY
6
73,000
72,500
72,000
71,500
71,000
70,500
70,000
69,500
69,000
68,500
68,000
67,500
67,000
66,500
66,000
65,500
65,000
64,500
64,000
63,500
63,000
62,500
62,000
61,500
61,000
60,500
60,000
70
69.5
69.0
68.5
68.0
67.5
67.0
66.5
66.0
65.5
65.0
64.5
64.0
63.5
63.0
AGEMILEAGE
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
£5,309
£5,718
£5,854£5,940 £5,924
£6,371 £6,316
£5,917
£5,670
£6,153
£6,390
£7,708
£6,971
£7,227
£5,051
£5,574
AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE MILEAGE AVERAGE AGE
DEALER MARKET PROFILE - YOUNG PART EXCHANGES (55-78 months)
• Prices ended 2020 at £7,227 the second highest on record and £1,174 higher (17.4%) than Q4 2019.
• Part exchanges at this age and price have been in huge demand in 2020 to hit the consumer retail sweet spot of £8-10,000.
SUMMARY
7
AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE MILEAGE AVERAGE AGE
86,000
85,500
85,000
84,500
84,000
83,500
83,000
82,500
82,000
81,500
81,000
80,500
80,000
79,500
79,000
78,500
78,000
77,500
77,000
76,500
76,000
75,500
75,000
105.0
104.8
104.6
104.4
104.2
104.0
103.8
103.6
103.4
103.2
103.0
102.8
102.6
102.4
102.2
102.0
101.8
101.6
101.4
101.2
101.0
100.8
100.6Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
AGEMILEAGE
£3,408
£3,183
£3,481£3,416
£3,004
£3,144£3,072
£2,810
£2,611
£2,324
£2,576
£3,129
£3,554
£4,021
£3,700£3,633
DEALER MARKET PROFILE - OLD PART EXCHANGES (79-126 months)
• This sector ended 2020 at £3,633, £225 higher than Q4 2019.
SUMMARY
8
AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE MILEAGE AVERAGE AGE
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
163.0
162.5
162.0
161.5
161.0
160.5
160.0
159.5
159.0
158.5
158.0
157.5
157.0
101,000
100,500
100,000
99,500
99,000
98,500
98,000
97,500
97,000
96,500
96,000
95,500
95,000
94,500
94,000
93,500
93,000
92,500
92,000
£811
£878
£956
£1,011
£1,084£1,102
£1,020
£1,123
£1,200
£1,380
£1,252
£1,313
£1,209 £1,221
£1,137
AGEMILEAGE
£1,050
DEALER MARKET PROFILE - BUDGET PART EXCHANGES (126+ months)
• This sector of the market continues to be in high demand as stock remains in short supply.
• Supply is likely to be further compromised once OEMs start to incentivise older car owners with scrappage deals.
• Prices finished 2020 at an average of £1,313 which was £190, a rise of 16.9% from Q4 2019.
SUMMARY
9
VAN AND DOUBLE CAB PICK-UP MARKET PROFILES
DOUBLE CAB PICK UP
AVERAGE PRICE
£8,500
£8,000
£7,500
£7,000
£6,500
£6,000
£5,500
£5,000
£4,500
£4,000
£3,500
£3,000Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
£4,923
£4,612
£4,323£4,533 £4,573
£5,949
£6,204
£7,608
VAN
AVERAGE PRICE
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
£9,644
£9,233
£9,757
£10,169
£10,657
£11,211
£8,678
£9,232
£12,000
£11,500
£11,000
£10,500
£10,000
£9,500
£9,000
£8,500
£8,000
£7,500
£7,000
£6,500
£6,000
PRICEPRICE
• Astonishingly LCV prices rose by £3,035 (66.3%) from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020 as used supply shortages, restricted new vehicle supply and huge demand drove the market to a new record high.
• Double-cab pick-ups also finished 2020 at the record price of £11,218, a rise of £1,978 (21.4%).
SUMMARY
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