IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Advanced Decision Advanced Decision Support for Energy and Support for Energy and Environmental PlanningEnvironmental Planning
OR 2001, September 4 2001,Duisburg
MESAP/TIMESMESAP/TIMES
Uwe Remme, Ulrich Schellmann, Christoph Schlenzig, IER, University of Stuttgart
Gary Goldstein, International Resources Group (IRG), Washington
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
l Energy system model TIMES
l Planning system MESAP- Architecture and features of MESAP- Integration of TIMES into MESAP- Components of MESAP
- Overview- Characteristics
Contents
l Outlook- Future developments
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Industry
Commercial and tertiary sector
Households
Transportation
Coal processing
Refineries
Power plantsand
Transportation
CHP plantsand district
heat networks
Gas network
Final energyPrimary energy
Domesticsources
Imports
Ene
rgy
pric
es, R
esou
rce
avai
labi
lity GDP
Process energy
Heating area
Population
Light
Communication
Power
Person kilometers
Freight kilometers
Demand services
Dem
and
s
Energy flows
Emissions
Capacities
Costs
Prices
Energy system model
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Goals of the TIMES development
EFOM-ENV MARKAL
- Limited subannual resolution
- Difficult to move time horizon
+ Flexible process description
- Dummy processes
- Difficult to move time horizon
+ RES based
+ Flexible descriptionSubdivisions of the yearRegions
+ Modularity
+ Prepare for ongoing research
The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Features• Elastic demands• Vintaging• Inter-temporal• User-defined constraints• Flexible process description• Load curve• Regions
TOOLS• ANSWER, ABARE• VEDA, GERAD• MESAP, IER
Applications (IER)
• TIMES-BY• TIMES-GES• TIMES-D
Methodology• Bottom-up Model• Perfect competition• Perfect foresight• Optimisation (LP)
Min/Max Objective functions.t.Equations, ConstraintsDecision Variables <=> SolutionInput parameters
Development• The Integrated MARKAL EFOM
System• By ETSAP• Implementation in GAMS
TIMESTIMES
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Flexible Processes
BOILER 1
BOILER 2
BOILER 3
Coal
Oil
Gas
DUMMY TECHDummy fuelSteam
Emissions MARKAL
Coal
Oil
GasBOILER 1
Steam
Emissions TIMES
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Flexibility in time
Seasons, e.g. hydro powerWISP SU FA
Weekly, e.g. electricity demandWD WE WD WD WE WD WEWE
Daynite, e.g. electricity demandD N D N D N D N
Ele
ctric
ity lo
ad
Day time
Ele
ctric
ity lo
ad
Day time
Ele
ctric
ity lo
ad
Day time
Ele
ctric
ity lo
ad
Day time
Model horizonPeriod 4Period 3Period 2Period 1
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Multi regions
REG 2
REG 3Area of study
Electricity
Steel
Money
Oil
Inter-regionalexchange process
Gas
REG 1
Importregion
Exportregion
AluminumCoal
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Objective function
Technical lifetime
Period t3 Period t4t1= v vintage Period t2
Annualizing of the investment costs
Investment costs Decommissioning costs
Constructiontime
Technical lifetime=Economic lifetime
Model years
Annualized costs
Decommissioningtime
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
ImportsfromRussia,4.7 TWh/a
Exports to Germany,2.3 TWh/a
1415 MW
1915 MW
2450 MW
2600 MW
2270 MW
2440 MW
1040
MW
1040
MW
Imports fromRussia,4.7
TWh/year
Exports to Germany,
2.3 TWh/year
Example: Electricity model of Nordic countries
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Electricity generation and import
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Wind power
Conventionalcondensing
CHP district heat
CHP industry
Nuclear power
Hydropower
Electricity generation
FINLAND SWEDEN NORWAY DENMARK
Periods: 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025
TWh
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
From Norway to Denmark
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
From Sweden to Denmark
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
From Sweden to Finland
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
From Norway to Sweden
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Electricity trade, TWh
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Complexity of an energy system model
l Large system to analyze. Size depends on the number of
- technologies- time periods- regions- time segments for representing load curves.
l Interdependencies between different parts of the system
l Many scenarios
Software tools needed to build, manage a modeland analyze its results !
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
PlaNetPlaNetEnergySystem
Simulation
TIMESTIMESEnergySystem-
Optimization
PROFAKOPROFAKOOperationalPlanning for
Electricity andDistrict Heat
INCAINCA
InvestmentCalculation
XtractorXtractorGAMSModel
Interface
CalQlatorCalQlatorGeneralEquation
Editor
DataCubeDataCube
ANALYSTANALYST
ExplorerExplorer
DatabaseDatabase
MESAP Information System
DataSheetDataSheet
Master DataMaster Data
Case ManagerCase Manager
RESRES--EditorEditor InternetInternet
ImIm//XporterXporter
InterfacesInterfaces
- Excel, csv, ASCII- DataLink - Internet Crawler
MESAPModular Energy System Analysis & Planning
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Characteristics of MESAP 4
l Softwareü Windows 2000 Standardü Client-Server Architectureü Access / SQL Server / Oracle DBü Open User Interface as public DLL
l New Database structureü Multi-dimensional Data Keyü User Interface Multi-lingual
l Functional Extensionü Multi-dimensional, containerised RES-Editorü Flexible Unit and Currency Handlingü Flexible Multi-user Access rights
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP 4 Software Architecture
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Modelling steps
RES
Scenarios
Solving
Analysis of results
Model data
Characterization
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
TIMES Shell in MESAP 4
DataCubeDataCube
TIMESModel
Equations
*.**.mod
ANALYSTANALYST
ScenarioScenarioManagerManager
RES EditorRES Editor
DataSheetDataSheet
TIMES ShellTIMES Shell
Model Definition
Comp. Characterization
Model Run
User InterfaceUser Interface
XtractXtract RoutineRoutineWrite Include Files
Import Results
Bulk LoaderBulk Loader
*.dd
*.*
*.dd
Existing TIMESmodels (e.g. converted
from MARKAL)
Results
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP Explorer
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP RES Editor
...RES Editor- for building up the Model Topology- for navigating in the RES- for direct Access to
Input Data and Model Results
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
RES Editor Container View
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
RES Editor Total View
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP DataSheet
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP DataSheet
Inspector Panel
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP DataSheet
Spreadsheet
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP DataSheet
On-line Graph
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP Analyst
...Report Sheet for pre-calculations- Write Input Data to Data Base
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP Analyst
...Report Sheet for DisplayingModel Results in Data Base using Table and Graph Templates
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
MESAP DataCube
...Cube View for analyzing Model Results in Data Baseusing the Online Analysis Processing (OLAP) - free configuration of the dimensions by drag&drop- collapsing / de-collapsing for automatic aggregation
IERUniversity of Stuttgart
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
Outlook
§ Methodology- Technological learning- Macroeconomic linkage, e.g. TIMES-MACRO- Multi-stage stochastic programming- …
§ Application§ Converting existing MARKAL and EFOM models§ Building a global model