Download - Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris11
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
WMO DRR Expert MeetingWMO DRR Expert Meeting
IOC Tsunami Warning Systems,IOC Tsunami Warning Systems,
Operational National end-to-end Operational National end-to-end Systems, Co-ordination and SupportSystems, Co-ordination and Support
Geneva, November 27 2007Geneva, November 27 2007
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris22
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
Established in 1960 in UNESCOEstablished in 1960 in UNESCO
Purpose Purpose to to promotepromote international cooperation and to international cooperation and to coordinatecoordinate programmes in programmes in research, services and capacity-buildingresearch, services and capacity-building, , in order to learn more about the nature and in order to learn more about the nature and resources of theresources of the ocean and coastal areasocean and coastal areas and and to apply that knowledge for the improvement to apply that knowledge for the improvement ofof management, sustainable developmentmanagement, sustainable development,, thethe protection of the marine environmentprotection of the marine environment, and the , and the decision-makingdecision-making process of its Member States process of its Member States
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris33
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in 1960, 2005 and 20071960, 2005 and 2007
Mandate extended to multi-hazard Mandate extended to multi-hazard approach,approach,– Specifically sea-level based hazardsSpecifically sea-level based hazards
Global oversight Working Group TOWS Global oversight Working Group TOWS under Assembly established to under Assembly established to
-- ensure coherency and consistencyensure coherency and consistency -- provide uniform governance structureprovide uniform governance structure Mandated under UNGA 61Mandated under UNGA 61
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris44
Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warningand Mitigation System
1965: 1965: IOC established the ICG/ITSU IOC established the ICG/ITSU International Coordination Group for the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific
(PTWC headquarters) (PTWC headquarters) - successful & operational - successful & operational
Tsunami Warning & Mitigation systemTsunami Warning & Mitigation system 2005: 2005: IOC established the ICG/IOTWS, IOC established the ICG/IOTWS,
ICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWSICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWS 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global
supervisory)supervisory)
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris55
United Nations role: What is the System?
Define the proper scale of problem and its Define the proper scale of problem and its solution.solution.
The system must be:The system must be:– Fully ownedFully owned by countries in region by countries in region– Based on international multilateral Based on international multilateral
cooperationcooperation– Based on open and free Based on open and free data exchangedata exchange– Protect ALLProtect ALL countries in region countries in region– Transparent and accountableTransparent and accountable to all to all
membersmembers
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris66
End-to-End SystemEnd-to-End System
ISSUE TIME OF PTWC INITIAL BULLETINS FOR TELESEISMS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
EVENT TIME (YEAR)
MIN
UT
ES
SIN
CE
QU
AK
E
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris99
FACTS: • Every Ocean Basin and Sea impacted
• Next tsunami can occur anywhere and any time
• Some countries have coasts on 2 or more basins
• No Early Tsunami Warning Systems outside Pacific in 2004
• Comprehensive Tsunami Mitigation Programme required Hazard Risk Assessment, Preparedness, Warning Guidance
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1010
Besides the Pacific system three more regions to coordinate
Criteria-relevant-appropriate-affordable-robust
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1111
Designing a GLOBAL Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System
4 Seas3 Oceans
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1212
IOC in UN partnership
ISDR
IOC
WMO
Warning guidanceHazard assessmentMitigation
Communication (GTS)Multi-hazard
Public awarenessPreparedness
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1313
How does it function? Is based on the joint operation of Is based on the joint operation of
international networks of detection international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning connected with national tsunami warning centrescentres
UN governance provided under the IOCUN governance provided under the IOC
Each nation is responsible for issuing Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and protect its warnings in their territory and protect its own population.own population.
National centres must have strong links with National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local)(national, provincial and local)
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1414
REGIONAL ELEMENTS (Pacific): REGIONAL ELEMENTS (Pacific): Regional Tsunami Warning Regional Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System and Mitigation System
NationalTWC
NationalTWC
WC/ATWCWC/ATWC
NWPTACNWPTAC
PTWC Regional
TWC
PTWC Regional
TWC
International Tsunami
InformationCentre (ITIC)
NationalTWC
NationalTWCNational
TWC
NationalTWCNational
TWC
NationalTWCNational
TWC
NationalTWCNational
TWS
NationalTWS
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1515
Describing the SystemDescribing the SystemPRESENT:PRESENT:PTWS: PTWC, PTWS: PTWC, WC/ATWC,WC/ATWC, JMAJMAInterim System (PTWC, JMA)Interim System (PTWC, JMA)
FUTURE PTWS? FUTURE PTWS? Intl System comprised of Natl/ Intl System comprised of Natl/
sub-regional TWC as countries sub-regional TWC as countries develop their own centresdevelop their own centres
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1616
Indian OceanWhere are we now?
A single system being establishedA single system being established
All countries of Indian Ocean participateAll countries of Indian Ocean participate Interim Tsunami advisory information from Interim Tsunami advisory information from
centres in Hawaii and Tokyo. centres in Hawaii and Tokyo. National 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nationsNational 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nations Governance under UN/IOCGovernance under UN/IOC Full scope of task recognized: Full scope of task recognized:
multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3) multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3) Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR, Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR,
UNDP, UN-ESCAPUNDP, UN-ESCAP
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
1717
• 28 real-time sea level stations• 25 new broadband seismometers• Dozen technical training courses on tsunami modelling and seismic analysis
• 19 TW capacity assessment missions
• Tsunami Warning Emergency Standard Operations Procedures for Indonesia (2006-07)
• TsunamiTeacher: multi-purpose educational toolkit in English and Bahasa Indonesia (7 more languages under way)
• Various educational material on tsunamis• 23 country assessment missions
Status and achievements in the ICG/IOTWS process
(mainly through ISDR Flash Appeal)
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
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Two major tasks:
- Identify, detect, verify and predict natural extrema, such as tsunami, cyclones, earthquakes with potential implications to mankind (upstream component)
- Raise awareness and preparedness to react appropriately to warnings of such extreme events (downstream component)
The unseen part of post-disaster recovery process is an Early Warning System
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris1919
IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWSIMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS
TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience):TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience):
1.1. WARNING CENTREWARNING CENTRE provides warning guidance provides warning guidance incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings; incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings;
Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn) Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn)
2.2. NDMO (recognized authority) NDMO (recognized authority) receives warning, receives warning, immediately evaluates/translates, immediately evaluates/translates, disseminates public messagedisseminates public messageAdditionally, hazard and risk, preparedness Additionally, hazard and risk, preparedness guidanceguidance
BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHERBOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER
3.3. EWS SUSTAINABILITY – MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACHEWS SUSTAINABILITY – MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACH
4.4. COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp. for regional and distant tsunamisesp. for regional and distant tsunamis
What are the essential information for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ?
The warning centre must provide:The warning centre must provide:
1) Information on the 1) Information on the earthquakeearthquake::– location and magnitude location and magnitude
2) Information on 2) Information on tsunamitsunami – time of tsunami arrivaltime of tsunami arrival – Importance of the tsunami Importance of the tsunami
(i.e, est. of amplitude of the (i.e, est. of amplitude of the tsunami)tsunami)
3) 3) SeriousnessSeriousness of the warning of the warning evaluation of the danger evaluation of the danger associated rescues to be forecastedassociated rescues to be forecasted
(Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)(Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)
• VERY RAPID VERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVALEARTHQUAKE EVAL
• VERY RAPID VERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVAL SEA LEVEL EVAL
• VERY RELIABLE VERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS COMMUNICATIONS
Multi-national, Global Nets Real-time transmission Data Sharing
ALL REQUIREDALL REQUIRED FOR WARNINGFOR WARNING
THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDSTHREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS
IOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoringIOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoringIOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoring
IO Core Seismic Network
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2222
A perfect warning will be useless
if people do not know what to do
in case of an emergency
Awareness and preparedness at the country/community level is essential
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2323
MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW?MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW? TO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSIONTO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSION Develop/implement TWC and TERP SOP
TO ACT FASTER / MAKE SURE IT WORKS, PRACTICETO ACT FASTER / MAKE SURE IT WORKS, PRACTICE
Test communications, end-to-end responseTest communications, end-to-end response
before the real thingbefore the real thing
Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequentConduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent
BEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESSBEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESS BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS
Resilient self-motivated, communities Resilient self-motivated, communities
How? People-centeredHow? People-centered
No simple process, no simple answersNo simple process, no simple answers
TAKING ACTION - WHAT TO DO:
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2424
Successes, Failures - 2006How the Pacific is responding:
3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl 3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl authauth
26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; 26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; telecom delays due to undersea cable disruptiontelecom delays due to undersea cable disruption => PTWC to provide HEADS-UP (EQ Obs Msg)=> PTWC to provide HEADS-UP (EQ Obs Msg)
17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but 17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but downstream dissemination and coordination not in place downstream dissemination and coordination not in place => SOP development, End-to-End TWC to Locals => SOP development, End-to-End TWC to Locals IOC (TWC); Local: IOC, UNDP, Germany, IFRC, USA + IOC (TWC); Local: IOC, UNDP, Germany, IFRC, USA + national/local partners; Sept - present / continuingnational/local partners; Sept - present / continuing
28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again 28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert system. In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > system. In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > M6.5 M6.5 => => SWP TWG (PTWS) - ongoingSWP TWG (PTWS) - ongoing
ITP-Hawaii Training (Tonga, Samoa TWC / NDMO), ITP-Hawaii Training (Tonga, Samoa TWC / NDMO), OctOct
IOC PTWS / WMO Reg V /SPREP TWC ws, Apr 2007IOC PTWS / WMO Reg V /SPREP TWC ws, Apr 2007
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2525
15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning 15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning threshold so no message issued - public wants info; threshold so no message issued - public wants info; statewide power outage hampers communications statewide power outage hampers communications => Advisory Clear-the-beach - new msg for Hawaii / USA=> Advisory Clear-the-beach - new msg for Hawaii / USA
15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled, 15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled, but criteria for cancellation not universally defined. No but criteria for cancellation not universally defined. No close-in-time direct confirmation of tsunami generation. close-in-time direct confirmation of tsunami generation. International coordination needed.International coordination needed.
13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov=> PTWS TWC Coordination Mtg, Jan 2007=> PTWS TWC Coordination Mtg, Jan 2007
8 PTWS TWC + IOC8 PTWS TWC + IOC Extensive discussion on all aspects of warningExtensive discussion on all aspects of warning 21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 - 21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 -
quick response with Indonesia downstream quick response with Indonesia downstream disseminationdissemination
Successes, Failures - 2006How the Pacific is responding:
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2626
1.1. KNOW and UNDERSTANDKNOW and UNDERSTAND tsunamis, risk tsunamis, risk
2.2. RECOGNIZERECOGNIZE natural warning signals natural warning signals
3.3. PLAN, and IMPLEMENTPLAN, and IMPLEMENT warning system warning system (monitor, detect, evaluate, warn)(monitor, detect, evaluate, warn)
4.4. MONITOR and WARNMONITOR and WARN everyone everyone
5.5. MAKE AWAREMAKE AWARE diverse audiences diverse audiences
6.6. KEEPKEEP preparedness going forever preparedness going foreverSystem readiness - practice to improveSystem readiness - practice to improvePersonal responsibility Personal responsibility
1.1. PREVENTPREVENT damage by making stronger damage by making stronger
TAKING ACTION - 7 stepsTAKING ACTION - 7 steps
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2727
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
Observations:Observations:- AwarenessAwareness- PreparednessPreparedness- Detection, verificationDetection, verification- ResponseResponse- ReliefRelief- Recovery Recovery Remarks:Remarks:
Training is Capacity Building at all levels, Training is Capacity Building at all levels, steps for those operating the and in the TWSsteps for those operating the and in the TWS
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2828
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
Downstream activities:Downstream activities:- Define standards, reference material, codes, Define standards, reference material, codes,
definitions of terminology on risk, hazard, definitions of terminology on risk, hazard, vulnerability, vulnerability,
- Economical, ecological, societal impact studiesEconomical, ecological, societal impact studies- ““Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get
at the people on the beachat the people on the beach- Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end
systemsystem- How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”?
Ownership, stakeholder attitudeOwnership, stakeholder attitude
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris2929
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
Downstream activities:Downstream activities:- Define planning/zoning standards, ICAMDefine planning/zoning standards, ICAM- Develop building codes, ISEEEDevelop building codes, ISEEE- Define, introduce unique signage ISODefine, introduce unique signage ISO- Awareness material to be “regionalized”: ISDR, Awareness material to be “regionalized”: ISDR,
IFRC, WHO, WMOIFRC, WHO, WMO- Develop legal instruments: UN Ocean, DOALOS, Develop legal instruments: UN Ocean, DOALOS, - Advise on streamlining administrationsAdvise on streamlining administrations
- OECD, UNDP, UN Sec, othersOECD, UNDP, UN Sec, others
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris3030
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
Research Needs:Research Needs:- hi-tech end: better source identificationhi-tech end: better source identification
- earthquake, tsunami generation, propagation earthquake, tsunami generation, propagation modelling, coastal inundation mapsmodelling, coastal inundation maps
- Lo-tech end: appropriate national communication Lo-tech end: appropriate national communication systems, governance, increase awareness, systems, governance, increase awareness, preparedness: establish civil defense structures, preparedness: establish civil defense structures, coastal planning, building codescoastal planning, building codes
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris3131
IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission
Research Needs:Research Needs:- Clear definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability, Clear definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability, - Economical, ecological, societal impact studiesEconomical, ecological, societal impact studies- ““Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get
at the people on the beachat the people on the beach- Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end
systemsystem- How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”? How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”?
Ownership, stakeholder attitudeOwnership, stakeholder attitude
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris3232
Conclusions Conclusions
OO standardization of means and contents standardization of means and contents OO keep it simple, get it cheaper keep it simple, get it cheaper OO get sustained funding get sustained funding OO don’t overload the people involved don’t overload the people involved OO training at all levels, again and again training at all levels, again and again OO upstream: upstream: clear responsibilities, instant reaction clear responsibilities, instant reaction -- 90 s off warning interval cost extra 90 s off warning interval cost extra
7 MUS$/y7 MUS$/y OO downstream: downstream: low tech, simple message, trained low tech, simple message, trained
response response
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, ParisPeter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris3333
A perfect warning will be useless
if people do not know what to do
in case of an emergency
Awareness and preparedness at the country level is essential
“We cannot stop natural calamities, but we can and must better equip individuals
and communities to withstand them.”
“Should disaster strike again,and it will in some part of the world,
we must be able to say that we did everything humanly possible to build
resilient societies.”
former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
Thank You