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InVEST Tier 1 Carbon Model
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• In the Tier 1 model we es1mate carbon stock as a func1on of land use / land cover.
• Storage indicates the mass of carbon in an ecosystem at any given point in 1me.
• Sequestra+on indicates the change in carbon storage in an ecosystem over 1me.
• Valua1on is applied to sequestra1on
Carbon Storage and Sequestration
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Tier 1 Carbon Storage Model
Atmosphere
Soil type, moisture Microbes, chemistry
Species Harvested Wood Products
Aboveground biomass
Belowground biomass
Dead wood
Atmosphere
Land management
Land use history
Soil carbon
Climate
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Tier 1 Carbon Storage Model Atmosphere
Soil type, moisture Microbes, chemistry
Species Harvested Wood Products
Aboveground biomass
Belowground biomass
Dead wood
Atmosphere
Land management
Land use history
Soil carbon
5 pools x f(cost/ton) = Value
Climate
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Sequestration and Value
2008
Net Present Value
Δ in C
2058
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Net Present Value is a func1on of:
• Market discount rate • Rate of change in the social value of carbon • Social or market cost of carbon Carbon model is most appropriate for valuing the
Social cost of carbon: The price of current and future damage caused by releasing a ton of carbon into the atmosphere
Approach to Valuation
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Input Data Required data:
A land use / land cover (LULC) map
Table of carbon pools (metric tons / hectare)
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Op1onal data: • For calcua1ng C stored in harvested wood produtcs:
– Map of 1mber harvest land parcels with data on – frequency of harvest – annual harvest amount – decay rate of wood products – density / volume factors
• Future land use map
• Economic data (carbon value / price, discount rate)
Input Data
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• Local plot studies • Published analyses on similar regions • IPCC tables
Carbon Pool Data Carbon Pool Data
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• Map of current carbon storage (Mg/cell)
• Map of future carbon storage -‐ If future land use provided
• Carbon sequestra1on map = (future -‐ present carbon storage)
• Map of economic value of carbon sequestered
Output
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• Simple, requires rela1vely liXle data, thus also works for data-‐sparse regions
• Both biophysical (carbon storage / sequestra1on) and economic valua1on modeling possible
Strengths
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• Output is only as detailed and reliable as the land use classes and carbon pool data that are input.
• Carbon sequestra1on does not occur in an area unless the area’s land use changes over 1me or wood is harvested.
Limitations
• Simplified carbon cycle
• Economic valua1on assumes a linear trend in sequestra1on over 1me
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Land cover transitions
T2
Storag
e in Biomass Reality
Model T1
Forest (young)
Forest (old)
T2 T1
Forest
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• Land use planners: Compare consequences of future scenarios
• Ecosystem service tradeoffs
• Carbon market: First-‐pass analysis
• Not appropriate for precise cost-‐benefit analysis etc
Application
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Gains and losses in carbon stocks from 2008 to 2058 in Sumatra, Indonesia
2008
Carbon gain
Carbon loss
2058
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Dharmasraya district, Sumatra, Indonesia Carbon gains and losses under alterna1ve scenarios
Loss
Gain
2008 to Green Vision 2008 to Business as Usual Plan
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Priority districts for inves1ng in forest carbon projects
High priority districts have: -‐ High deforesta1on risk -‐ Large biomass carbon stocks -‐ Rela1vely lower agricultural value
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