INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE ZIMBABWEAN POWER THE ZIMBABWEAN POWER
SECTORSECTOR
PRESENTED AT ESI POWER INDABA CONFERENCE, DURBAN SOUTH AFRICA
by: Eng. B. RafemoyoZESA HOLDINGS (PVT) LTD GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
CONTENTS
� Overview of Zimbabwe� Background � The Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Industry
Overview � The Power Supply Status� Mitigation Measures to meet Growing National &
Regional Demand� Project Information Reports � Conclusion
OVERVIEW OF ZIMBABWE
� The establishment of the GNU (Government of National Unity) has created a stable Political environment.
� Inflation has been tamed and is now stable. � A projected GDP of 10% for 2010.� There has been a shift from -ve to +ve real interest rates.� The International Community has been re engaged and high
Profile International Investors conferences have been successfully carried out .Congruency of Policy of the three Political Principals on economic recovery has been demonstrated.
� Commitment to guarantee private property rights was given
BACKGROUND
� We have a current Generation Deficit of above 600MW, while the economy is rising from the 2008 world financial crisis.
� The Economy is rebounding and the Suppressed Demand (over 2200MW) due increased Industrial/ Mining/Farming & Commercial capacity utilisation will soon be a reality.
� Due to the increasing Regional Power deficit SADC member States are being encouraged to engage in Generation and Transmission projects that promote self sufficiency and cross border power trade.
BACKGROUND
� Zimbabwe has a potential Power Generation resource of up to 9000MW from Coal, Gas and Hydro. Major projects for investment discussions have been identified. Excluded in this presentation are the abundant renewable resources such as wind and Sun etc.
� Zimbabwe sits centrally in the region and will strategically be the most logical transit route for power movement, be it North, East or South. The National Grid transfer capacity is currently limited to 300MW exports and with new reinforcement projects above 1000MW would be exportable .
2
SAPP GRID
Dem Repof the Congo
CongoGabon
Luanda
Windhoek
Lusaka
Harare
Lilongwe
Nairobi
Dar es Salaam
GaboronePretoria
Johannesburg
Cape Town
MaputoMbabane
KinshasaBrazzaville
Angola
Tanzania
Kenya
Mozambique
South Africa Swaziland
Lesotho
Namibia
Zambia
BotswanaZimbabwe
Malawi
Rwanda
Burundi
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
HH
H
H
HH
H
P
PH
H
T
T
T
T
ET
ET
ETETET
ETETETETET ET
ET
ET
T
HH
H
TH
P
N
HH
Hydro stationPumped storage schemeThermal StationEskom thermal station
BACKGROUND
� Investments in Power Generation and Transmission projects have been deregulated for participation by the private sector (IPPs) and triple Ps (PPPs).
THE ZIMBABWE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
� The Electricity Industry is governed by the new Electricity Act Chapter 13:19 (2003) and Chapter 13:20 (2002) for the Rural Electrification Fund.
The Reforms from the Act� The Zimbabwe Regulatory Commission was
established.
� ZESA was unbundled into successor companies
� A Rural Electrification Agency was established
THE ZIMBABWE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Reform Benefits� Power Generation deregulated to promote
investment by IPPs and PPPs in generation.
� None core ZESA activities were ring fenced from the tariff chargeable to customers.
� The Act called for the adoption of the Cost Reflective Pricing Model for Tariffs.
THE ZIMBABWE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Generation
Power Source Installed capacity MW
DependableCapacity MW
Currently available MW
Hwange 920 780 350
Kariba 750 750 750
Small Thermals
220 170 0
Total 1890 1700 1100
THE ZIMBABWE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Typical Tariffs Levels� Domestic 6-8.5USc/kWh� Mining 5-7.0USc/kWh� Commercial 5-7.0USc/kWh� Institutions 5-7.0USc/kWh� Agriculture 5-7.0USc/kWh
Average tariff is 7.53USc/kWh
THE POWER SUPPLY STATUS-SOURCES
Source Capacity Remarks
Internal 1100MW 90% from Kariba
External 200-300MW 90% from HCB
Total 1 300MW-1400MW
POWER SUPPLY SOURCES-INTERNAL
Sources Dependable capacity
Current performance
Remarks
Hwange 780MW 350MW Resources Required for repairs
Kariba 750MW 745MW Base load
Small thermals
200MW 0MW Major Repairs & Coal supply constraints
ZIMBABWE POWER STATIONS
IN S T A L L E D G E N E R A T IO N IN S T A L L E D G E N E R A T IO N
C A P A C IT YC A P A C IT Y
H w an ge P o w e r S ta tio n (78 0 M W )
K arib a Po w e r S ta tio n (75 0 M W )
B u la w a yo Po w e r S ta tio n (60 M W )
H a ra re P o w er S ta tio n (45 M W )
M u n ya ti P o w e r S ta tio n (70 M W )
NATIONAL GRIDNATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID NATIONAL TRANSMISSION GRID
REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION REINFORCEMENT & EXTENSION
MOZAMBIQUEZAMBIA
Kariba
MutorashangaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaska
BinduraBinduraBinduraBindura
NortonNortonNortonNorton
HWANGEHWANGEHWANGEHWANGE
Empress
SherwoodSherwoodSherwoodSherwoodHaven
ChertseyChertseyChertseyChertseyKEY
Insukam iniEXISTING HYDRO POWER STATIONS
Manada
MarvelMarvelMarvelMarvelTokwe
EXISTING 420kV Lines
Plumtree
Triangle
RSARSARSARSA Beitbridge
EXISTING 330kV LINES
LUPANELUPANELUPANELUPANE
KARIBA KARIBA KARIBA KARIBA
SOUTH EXTNSOUTH EXTNSOUTH EXTNSOUTH EXTN
BOTSWANABOTSWANABOTSWANABOTSWANA
3I5 km
305 km
250 km
DemaDemaDemaDema
Munyati P/S
Harare P/S
Byo P/S
2x30kmI50 km
BULK POINT CAPACITY INCREASE
Orange Grove
NEW BULK SUPPLY POINTS
BULK POINT TRANSFORMER REPLACEMENT
255 km
200 kmWarren
BATOKABATOKABATOKABATOKA
NEW THERM AL GENERATION
NEW HYDRO GENERATION
EXISTING THERM AL POWER STATIONS
2 X 70km
PROPOSED 420kV Lines
LINE UPRATE
PROPOSED 330kV LINES
HarareHarareHarareHarareGOKWE NTHGOKWE NTHGOKWE NTHGOKWE NTH
ChakariChakariChakariChakari
NEW G AS GENERATION
MITIGATION MEASURES TO MEET GROWING NATIONAL & REGIONAL DEMAND
� Demand Side Management
� Refurbishment
� Expansion
� Greenfield
MITIGATION MEASURES TO MEET DEMAND
� Demand Side management� Reduce demand to save 300MW
@USD80million over 3yrs� Replace all incandescent lamps� Install water heater demand control� Modify tariff to incentivize off peak use
MITIGATION MEASURES TO MEET DEMAND-REFURBISHMENT
� USD100m required to refurbish Hwange to push production from 350MW to 780MW by June 2010
� USD40m required to boost Small Thermals output from 0 to 220MW
MITIGATION MEASURES TO MEET GROWING DEMAND-EXPANSION
� Hwange Stage III -2X300MW @ USD600m by 2015.
� Kariba South-2X150MW @ USD400m by 2016.
� Develop Central Transmission Corridor to achieve power transferability of 1000MW
MITIGATION MEASURES TO MEET GROWING DEMAND-EXPANSION
� CTC developing 2 projects at USD190m
Central Transmission Corridor- Akaska - Sheerwood (160km) @ USD50m- Bindura - Mutorashanga (80km) @ USD30m- Marvel Insukamini (40km) @ USD20- Dema SVC @ USD50
ZIZABONA Phase I- Hwange to Livingstone Line (100km) @ USD40m
ZIMBABWE TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE
ZIMBABWEZIMBABWEZIMBABWEZIMBABWE POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PLANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PLANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
MOZAMBIQUEZAMBIA
Kariba
MutorashangaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaska BinduraBinduraBinduraBindura
NortonNortonNortonNorton
HWANGEHWANGEHWANGEHWANGEEmpress
SherwoodSherwoodSherwoodSherwoodHaven
ChertseyChertseyChertseyChertsey
Insukamini
EXISTING HYDRO POWER STATIONS
Manada
MarvelMarvelMarvelMarvelTokwe
EXISTING 420kV Lines
Plumtree
Triangle
RSARSARSARSABeitbridge
EXISTING 330kV LINES
LUPANELUPANELUPANELUPANE
KARIBA KARIBA KARIBA KARIBA
SOUTH EXTNSOUTH EXTNSOUTH EXTNSOUTH EXTN
BOTSWANABOTSWANABOTSWANABOTSWANA
3I5 km
305 km
DemaDemaDemaDema
Munyati P/S
Harare P/S
Byo P/S
2x30kmI50 km
Orange Grove
255 km
200 km Warren
BATOKABATOKABATOKABATOKA
NEW THERMAL GENERATION
NEW HYDRO GENERATION
EXISTING THERMAL POWER STATIONS
2 X 70km
PROPOSED 420kV Lines
LINE UPRATEPROPOSED 330kV LINES
HarareHarareHarareHarareGOKWE NTHGOKWE NTHGOKWE NTHGOKWE NTH
ChakariChakariChakariChakari
NEW GAS GENERATION
Livingstone
CONDO
250 km
Gairezi Mini Hydro
Osborne Mini Hydro
Siya Mini Hydro
Mutirikwi Mini Hydro
Manyuchi Mini Hydro
Rusitu Mini Hydro
310km
385 km
WESTERN WESTERN WESTERN WESTERN
POWERPOWERPOWERPOWER
Total Potential > 9000MW
MITIGATION MEASURES TO MEET DEMAND GREENFIELD PROJECTS
� Develop 152MW minihydros at a cost of USD150m.
� Construct 300MW Lupane methane gas power station @ USD300million.
� Construct 8x200MW Batoka hydro power station @USD 2 400 million.
� Construct 4X350MW Gokwe North thermal power station @USD 1 600 million.
PROJECT INFORMATION REPORTS
PROJECT NAME
REPORTS STATUS
Hwange Stage III
Feasibility studies were last reviewed in 2003 by WAPCOS
Kariba South Ext Feasibility studies were last reviewed in 2004 by WAPCOS
Gokwe North Feasibility studies were last reviewed in 1997 by National Power, ZESA and Rio Tinto
PROJECT INFORMATION REPORTS CONT’D
PROJECT NAME
REPORTS STATUS
Batoka Gorge Feasibility studies were done in 1993 by Lahmeyer International, Knight Piesold Consulting Engineers & EWI Engineers
Lupane methane Gas
Studies have not yet been done
PROJECTS INFORMATION REPORTS
� Project information reports for the following projects are available at ZESA and can be given to prospective investors
– Kariba South Extension Power Station– Hwange Stage III Thermal Power Station– Central Transmission Corridor Reinforcement and
Expansion– Batoka Hydro Power Station– Minihydros Power Stations– Gokwe Thermal Power Station– Small thermal power stations Refurbishment– Demand side management
LOW CASE BASE CASE HIGH CASE
(MW) (MW) (MW)
2009 1806 1942 1942
2010 2095 2428 2428
2011 2157 2816 2816
2012 2222 3126 3126
2013 2289 3376 3376
2014 2357 3511 3511
2015 2428 3651 3651
2016 2489 3797 3797
2017 2551 3949 3949
2018 2615 4107 4107
2019 2680 4272 4272
2020 2747 4442 4442
FORECAST MAXIMUM DEMAND 2009 TO 2029
LOW CASE BASE CASE HIGH CASE
(MW) (MW) (MW)
2021 2816 4620 4620
2022 2886 4805 4805
2023 2959 4997 4997
2024 3033 5197 5197
2025 3108 5405 5405
2026 3186 5621 5621
2027 3266 5846 5846
2028 3347 6080 6080
2029 3431 6323 6323
FORECAST MAXIMUM DEMAND 2009 TO 2029
FORECAST (MW)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
years
MW FORECAST (MW)
CONCLUSION
� Zimbabwe has numerous investment opportunities in the power sector
� Please come and invest in Zimbabwe
Thank You