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IPT LOCAL LUNCHEON GROUP – SAN ANTONIO
JEFF MOORE- SENIOR DIRECTOR, ONESOURCE® PROPERTY TAX ZACK FLEMING- SENIOR MANAGER, ONESOURCE® PROPERTY TAX
SEPTEMBER 13, 2012
E C O N O M I C T R E N D S , C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E U P D AT E , A N D M A N U FA C T U R I N G TA X S AV I N G S O P P O R T U N I T I E S
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WHERE DO WE START?
The Economy!• The global, national and local economy is a key driver of
asset values, both real and personal
• The economic cycle, timing and market expectations – must be considered in valuations
• A property tax strategy must link the macro economic cycles and the industry sector cycles to the specific issues impacting our facilities and assets
• So, what’s going on with the economy?
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE/SENTIMENT
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INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
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HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS
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INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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TEXAS OUTPERFORMING THE U.S. ECONOMY
7
United States Texas
Job growth (non-government) 1.8% 3.0%
Unemployment rate 8.3% 7.2%
Consumer Confidence Index* 65.9 92.7
Home price decline since 2010 30% 4%
* Includes Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas
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EAGLE FORD SHALE – ECONOMIC IMPACT
8
Fourteen-county Study Core Region, 2011
• Almost $20 billion total economic impact
• $310 million in state tax revenues
• $211 million local tax revenues
• 38,000 full time jobs supported
– 4300 in Bexar County
• Drilling permits issued: 129 in 2009, 3823 in 2011
(Source: Institute for Economic Development, UTSA, May 2012)
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EAGLE FORD SHALE PRODUCTION 2009-2011
9
- Gas (tens of MCF)
- Oil (BBL)
- Condensate (BBL)
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SAN ANTONIO AREA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE Q3 2012
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MAJOR PROJECTS
• Helotes Town Center – 200,000 sq.ft. project (2013)
• Boeing – Wichita Operations to SA – over 400 jobs
• Home Development – Plats filed doubled YoY(N/NW)
• Eagle Ford – $25 billion impact south Texas 2011
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LOCAL ECONOMY
• Job Growth – Large job losses 2nd half 2011– Metro wide employment rose 2% first half 2012– Citywide unemployment – 6.4%
• Housing– Single Family Permits 4,200 last 12 months– Number distressed Sales Declining
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SECTOR UPDATES
• Multi-family
• Retail
• Industrial
• Office
• Hospitality
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MULTI-FAMILY
- Occupancy Rate – 92%
- Rental Rates – $.88
- Cap Rates – 6.5%
- Sales Volume – 10%
- Construction – 250%
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MULTI-FAMILY – VISUAL
A > B > C
Multi Housing Investment TrendsTrailing 12 Months (in Millions)
Occupancy Rates
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CONSTRUCTION FACTORS
• 2011 Lack of Construction – 500 new units
• 1st half 2012 – 975 units brought online
• 2012 year end – 2,800
• 4,000 units under construction currently
• 5,400 units in pipeline
• Most activity in far north central and north west
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RENTAL RATE AND VACANCY FACTORS
• Rents – 2011 – rose 2%– 2012 – on track for 3% increase– $700 / month
• Vacancy – 2011 – declined 130 points– 2012 – on track to decline another 70 basis point– 2012 YE – 6.4%
• Recent Sales– Haven at Blanco -$+/-120K per unit (74% Assessed Value)– Palomino – Undisclosed
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RETAIL
• Construction
• Vacancy
• Rental Rates
• Deal of the year
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VACANCY AND RENTAL RATES
• Vacancy has decreased to 9.5 %– 20 basis points below recession peak levels– High traffic power centers > neighborhood strip centers– Return of consumer spending (finally)
• Rental Rates – Increase 1.3% - $14.58– Concessions – 12.5% asking rents
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CONSTRUCTION
• 850,000 sq.ft. new retail space– 2011 – 675,000 sq.ft. new space– Mainly single tenant “net lease” type space
• Very few new listings• Trading at mid-7 cap rates
• Major Moves – HEB – Bandera/1604 – 182,000 sq.ft.– Wal-Mart – Helotes – Ends 2 Year delay
• Thousand Oaks and Nacogdoches◦ Fall 2013◦ 150,000 sq.ft. / 300 new jobs
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RETAIL – DEAL OF THE YEAR
• Arbor Parks Shopping Center – 281/1604 – Under Contract – $26 million or $187 PSF– Buyer – RioCan REIT– Seller – Dunhill Partners – 6.7% Yield– 74% LTV– 4.7% Interest Rate– Term – 60 months
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INDUSTRIAL
- Lease Rates - $4.15 Distribution-$8.57 Flex
- Absorption – 565,653 SF - Q2 2012
- Construction – 300,000 SF
- Vacancy – 14.5%
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MOVERS AND SHAKERS
• Maruchan – aka Ramen Noodles– $325 Million warehouse / 500,000 SF– Fischer Road 410 / 35 S (2013)– NOW HIRING – $7.25 hour – 500 jobs
• Eagle Ford Shale Investment– Contributed 38,000 full-time jobs– 117,000 jobs by 2021 (30 years worth of shale
production)
• U.S. Silica Holdings – Sand Suppliers– 290 Acres SW– 15,000-ton frac sand storage facility (2013)
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INDUSTRIAL MARKET SNAPSHOT
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INDUSTRIAL – SUB MARKET PERFORMANCE
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OFFICE OVERVIEW
• 2011 – 2nd half – 350,000 SF Absorption
• 2012 – Large Vacancies– AT&T – Corporate Campus – 433,00 SF– KCI, NuStar, Kentic Concepts, Nationwide – 350,000 S
• Class C Sales – consisted half trades in 2011– Local Investors – Value-add along 410
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OFFICE – CAPITALIZATION RATES
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SALES
Volume - Real Capital Analytics Sales Price - Loopnet
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LEASE TRENDS
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OFFICE – DEAL OF THE YEAR
• Westdale Asset Management buys NW Center and Colonnade 1 (Portfolio Sale)
$17.7 million - $105 SF$33.6 million - $139 SF (pending)
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HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY• Few “Arms-Length” Transactions in 2011-2012• Downtown Troubles
– Hotel Indigo Riverwalk – Bankruptcy – sold at Auction for $9,000,000 (defaulted on $16,300,000 loan)
– Hotel Indigo Alamo Plaza – Bankruptcy ($21,000,000 in loans for 4 hotel portfolio in San Antonio)
– St. Anthony – Bought Out of Receivership - Undisclosed– Gunter – Sold in Foreclosure – Undisclosed*
• 2011 Overall Performance– Occupancy – 59.6% – Up 2.0%– ADR – $97.71 – Up 0.9%– REVPAR – $58.27 – Up 2.43%– Still Well Below 2008 Highs
• 2012 Year to Date– 9.38% Increase in Total Room Rev
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MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT
• Eilan – Hotel/ Office/ Retail/ Residential
• Pearl – Hotel/ Office/ Retail/ Residential
• Downtown – Planned Office/ Retail/ Residential
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MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY TRENDS AND TAX SAVINGS OPPORTUNITIES
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MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
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MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
Strength:• Machinery
• Electrical Equipment
• Fabricated Metal ProductsWeakness:
• Furniture
• Wood products
• Textile and apparel
• Printing
Capacity Utilization varies widely among Manufacturing Subgroups:
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COMMODITY PRICES
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INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL OBSOLESCENCE
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• Reduced demand and/or excess supply for the product or service
• Changes in consumer preferences
• Intensifying competition– Global (low cost-of-production countries)
– Local/Regional (transportation disadvantages)
• Changes in the economics of the industry
– Cost shifts of materials, labor, utilities and transportation
• Legislation (including environmental) requiring asset disposition, reconfiguration or additional capital investment
External Obsolescence is typically incurable but may not be permanent. The magnitude of an adjustment often varies over time
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INUTILITY DEFINED
How does the American Society of Appraisers define Inutility?
“Whenever the operating level of plant or an asset is significantly less than its rated or design capability, and the condition is expected to exist for some time, the asset is less valuable than it would otherwise be. Such a penalty for inutility can be a measure of the loss from this form of economic obsolescence.”
Valuing Machinery & Equipment, Second Edition, p. 97
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INUTILITY PENALTY CALCULATION
When used in calculating obsolescence, the Cost-to Capacity formula is stated as:
39
100xityRatedCapacProduction Actual(%)Inutility
x1
48.3% 100 x 1(%)Inutility 0.6
30,000,00010,000,000
Example: Pharmaceutical Plant Actual Production: 10 Million Vials Per YearRated Capacity: 30 Million Vials Per YearScale Factor: 0.6
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INDICATORS OF FUNCTIONAL OBSOLESCENCE
• Assets that operate at higher costs (labor, utilities, raw materials) than modern replacements
• Assets in current use that will require replacement in the near future
• Assets that have recently been rebuilt (or need to be)• Assets that have become technologically obsolete that are
being utilized at reduced capacities• Idled, substantially underutilized or “junked in place” assets• Assets present at the facility that are backup or redundant
systems
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MEASURING FUNCTIONAL OBSOLESCENCE
• Most common methods include:– Calculate the present worth of the future excess
operating costs associated with the subject assets – Estimate the present value of the cost to cure the
obsolescence– Identify the difference between reproduction cost and
replacement cost
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