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Is Scientific PublishingAbout To BeDisrupted?
Michael Nielsen@michael_nielsen
http://michaelnielsen.org/blogSTM Conference, October 2009
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Kongo Gumi
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578 CE
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Prince Shotoku
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Shitenno-Ji Temple
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almost 1,500 years
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2005:100+ employees
70 million $ revenue
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Masakazu Kongo40th generation
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2006:Liquidation
Purchased by Takamatsu
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As an independent entity,Kongo Gumi no longer exists
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How is it that large, powerfulorganizations, with access to vast
sums of money, and many talented,hardworking people, can
simply disappear?
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most interesting when an entire industry is disrupted
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Data General
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None of these companies exist
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CD Sales
Napster founded
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Firstquarter2009
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First part of talkWhy these disruptions happenHow we can recognize themSecond part of talk
Scientific publishing is in the (very)early days of such a disruption
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Common explanations ofdisruption1. The people in charge are stupid.
Why couldn’t the record companies see things coming…
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Napster
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iTunes
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Last.fm
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pre-empt them by doingsomething similar first
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2. The people in charge are malevolent.
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stupidity and malevolencesometimes play a role…
…it’s a mistake to base an explanation on these factors.
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underlying structural reasons cause the failure
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If you look at the newspapersand record companies andsee stupid and malevolent
people…
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But if disruption can destroy
then it can destroy anybody
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Why are the top blogs thriving financially, while the
newspapers are dying?
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news parasites
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TechCrunch
Top 100 blogs in the world
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Started in 2005
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arguably the best reportingin the technology industry
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TechCrunch is thriving
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The New York Times is wilting
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Operating income down 50% first quarter
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TechCrunch’s operatingcosts are far lower, per word
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depressing the price of advertising
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Increased supply of ad space
Old supply of published material
ad space
decreased price
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there’s a limited amount thenewspapers can do to makethemselves cheaper to run
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~ $100s per photo
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~ $10 / photo
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TechCrunch isn’t being any smarterthan the newspapers
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quality photography can help establisha superior newspaper brand
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worth $$$
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makes business senseto spend ~ $100s / photo
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Organizational architecture
(Diff colours = diff skills)
Most newspapers usea very similar architecture
Compete with small variations
Good photographersare worth every cent
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An opportunity for anew type of organization
New technology (internet)
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radically different human skills
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radically different structure
No staff photographerNo office (until recently)
No print room
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no wonder it’s lower cost
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What can you do?
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destroy morale of all your staff
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stir up the Unions
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give a competitive advantageto your newspaper competitors
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still be paying far more, per word, than TechCrunch
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product will be no more competitive
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new optimum could not have existed 20 years ago
you can’t get there without going through the valley
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incremental actions wouldbe hell on a newspaper
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locked in
comparable quality
higher price
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~ $100s / photo
entirely sensible business decision
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NOT
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Standard Org.Architecture
New Org.Architecture
Radicallydifferent skills
& structure
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Near-impossible to get from onearchitecture to the other
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Easier to start over
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Change is harder even than I’ve said
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forces which suppress change
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Large, complex structures can only lastwith forces that preserve that structure
Organizational immune system
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good thing
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When major changes are needed, the immune system will attack
those changes
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attacked from within
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attacked by their competitors
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Only a company outside theindustry could have done it
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AndrewRosenthal
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Classic immune response
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Deep commitment to quality journalism
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values which have madethe New York Times great
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The NYT can keep itsPulitzer Prizes
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the last people to know an industry is dead are
the people in it
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internalized the values, normsand collective knowledge
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immune response is strongest
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If a person inside an industry needs tofrequently explain why it’s not dead,
they’re almost certainly wrong
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How can you tell if an industry is about to be disrupted?
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fundamental problem is thatit’s hard to recognize the early
stages of disruption
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newspapers laughed at thenotion of online news and ad sites
as competitors just a few years ago
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serve a similar basic need
craigslist
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craigslist
different org. architecture
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People outside the newspaperindustry were willing to bettheir own money on them
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Most such startups die
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That’s how the new industrylearns what organizational
architectures work
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But if even a few survive, theincumbents are in big trouble
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lot more room for improvement
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What’s this got to do withscientific publishing?
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TodayEditorial
Co-ordinationDistribution
Production companies
10-20 yearsTechnology companies
Sales & marketing
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Not just that they’ll use technology
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Nor that they’ll have a large IT staff
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technology-driven
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their core competency andcore way of adding value is technological innovation
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key decisions are being madeby people whose background
is technology
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Didn’t people already predictsomething like this with
preprint archives?
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Today, there is a flourishingecology of startups
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Acquired by Royal Society of Chemistry
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many of the same people as Last.fm
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science blogs
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easy to miss impact on research
most science blogs focus onoutreach
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Tim Gowers
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open sourcemathematics
entirely in the open
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37 days
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27 people
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800 comments
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170,000 words
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Gowers: “this processis to normal research as
driving is to pushing a car”
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4 of the 42 living Fieldsmedallists have blogs
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hundreds of research blogs
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Some of the world’s topscientists are spending manyhundreds of hours per year
on their blogs
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open notebook science
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Pioneered by chemistsJean-Claude Bradley and
Cameron Neylon
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Tobias Osborne
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Garrett Lisi
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Steve Koch
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Second sign of move from productioncompany to technology company
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Changing nature of information
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static entity
add value through content,production and distribution
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online
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cost of distribution, production and content have dropped dramatically
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information is...
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waking up
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coming alive
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people who add most value areno longer the people who doproduction and distribution
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technology people
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programmers
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Look at where profits are migratingin other media industries
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profound technical ability
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How many scientific publishersare run by people who know…
…the differenceb/w INNER JOIN
and OUTER JOIN… what an A/B test is?
… how to set up a Hadoop cluster?
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myriad of services to develop
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many are being considered by startups
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Not difficult, technically
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The Amazon algorithmis public (Linden, Smith and York,IEEE Internet Computing, 2003)
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PageRank
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personalized PageRank
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personalized search
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personalized recommendations
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Google doesn’t use it
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too computationally intensive
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… even for Google, onbillions of pages
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but on the scientific literature?
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Not yet done
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Automatic translation
Full-text searchGood relevancy and importance ranking
RSS feeds
Spell checkingSynonyms
Alerting services
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Analytics
Data miningInference of emerging areas
Factual inferenceOpen API
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not yet widely adopted by scientiststrivial reasons
collaboration platforms will emerge
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Timestamped
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LaTeX integration
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Version history
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Citable
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Integrate naturally with platformslike wordpress.org
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Where will they be in 10, 20 years time?
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Someone needs to do the same for science
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Citable
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Permanent
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Versioned and timestamped
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Searchable
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Huge opportunities
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Technology leads
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Most ideas will fail
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The people who succeedwill be those with the deepest
understanding, not the deepest pockets
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Difficult for publishersto get involved
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If not them, it will be someone else
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Thankyouhttp://michaelnielsen.org/blog/?p=629
http://michaelnielsen.org/blog@michael_nielsen