Is Scotland Set to Separate?
John Curticewhatscotlandthinks.org
@whatscotsthink
Turnout Prospects
Feb May Sept Dec Feb0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
73 74 7379 78
65 64 6369 68
54 5752
56 54
Referendum Holyrood Westminster
% c
erta
in to
vot
e
Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)
A Little Movement in the Polls?
Feb-May July-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-Mar0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
38 39 3942
62 61 6158
YesNo
Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.
The Post Christmas Sequence% Yes Change since Pre-WP
TNS BMRB 41 +5
ICM 46 +6
YouGov 39 +1
Survation 38 -
TNS BMRB 41 +5
Panelbase 43 -2
YouGov 39 +1
Survation 45 -
ICM 43 +3
Panelbase 44 -1
Ipsos MORI 36 +2
YouGov 40 +2
Survation 45 -
The Don’t Knows
TNS Others YouGov - AV ICM - AV0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3530
15
33
27
%
Squeezing the Don’t Knows
Ipsos MORI ICM I ICM 20
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
39
2420
29
2125
YesNo
Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI
Feb. May Sept Dec Feb0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20
26
34
24
31
1821
28
23 23
YesNo
Source: Ipsos MORI
Possible Changers - ICM
Sept Jan Feb0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
29
2321
16
22
17 YesNo
Source: ICM Research
The Cross-Party Transfer
Panelbase Ipsos MORI YouGov Survation0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2
0
45
15
11
15
18
1413
109
11
14
12
10ConLabLDSNP
% s
ayin
g w
ill v
ote
agai
nst p
arty
's
reco
mm
enda
tion
The Gender Gap
ICM Panelbase Ipsos MORI YouGov Survation0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4853
4144
52
3934
31 29
38
MenWomen
Partly a Question of Identity
Sc not Br More Sc Equal More Br Br not Sc0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
77
45
136 3
69
43
10 11 14
68
40
16 14 12
82
56
84 7
80
56
13
4 3
Feb. 13 May Sept Dec Feb
% s
uppo
rt in
depe
nden
ce
Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs
Scotland’s Future - Economy?
Sept Jan Feb0
10
20
30
40
50
60
3135 35
6 7 7
48
4246
Better No Difference Worse
Source: ICM Research
Scotland Future’s - Equality
Sept Jan Feb0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
27
313334
31 32
20 2119
Less No Difference More
Source: ICM Research
Economy Matters (Much) More
Better No Difference Worse0
20
40
60
80
100
120
97
45
4
63
3627
% Yes
EconomyEquality
Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded
The Gender Gap on the Economy
Sept Jan Feb
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
-14
-5-4
-19
-10
-17
MenWomen
% g
ood
- % b
ad
Source: ICM Research
Conclusion
• Be ready for a high turnout!• The referendum race has narrowed a bit• But Yes side still face a substantial challenge
– Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over
– Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones
– Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union
– Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women