www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
It Could Be Worse… And It Might Be, But Not YetBritain Ain’t No LehmansCarl Weinberg, Chief Economist
Brexit Vote’s U.S. Fallout: This Too Shall Pass?Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
It Could Be Worse… And It Might Be, But Not YetBritain Ain’t No LehmansCarl Weinberg, Chief Economist
Carl B. Weinberg, Chief Economist
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016
United States
China
India Japan
Germany
Russia Brazil
France United Kingdom
Indonesia
Italy
Mexico
Rest Of The World
United Kingdom: Share Of World GDP
Percent Share Of World GDP On PPP Valuation Basis, Source ICP/World Bank
Carl B. Weinberg, Chief Economist
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016
United States
United Kingdom
Japan Singapore
Germany
France
Italy
Rest Of World
United Kingdom: Share Of World Finance Services Industry
HFE SWAG
Carl B. Weinberg, Chief Economist
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016
1.22
1.24
1.26
1.28
1.30
1.32
1.34
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
Apr 22
Apr 29
May 06
May 13
May 20
May 27
Jun 03
Jun 10
Jun 17
Jun 24
Sterling In Euros, Daily Exchange Rate & Trends
Lines Show 89-, 29-, 9-Day Trends
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
Apr 22
Apr 29
May 06
May 13
May 20
May 27
Jun 03
Jun 10
Jun 17
Jun 24
United Kingdom: Daily Price Of 10-Year Gilt
Channels Show 89-, 29-, 9-Day Trends, Spliced To Match 2.0% Gilt Of September 2025
1.37
1.39
1.41
1.43
1.45
1.47
1.49
1.51
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
Apr 22
Apr 29
May 06
May 13
May 20
May 27
Jun 03
Jun 10
Jun 17
Jun 24
Sterling In U.S. Dollars, Daily Exchange Rate & Trends
Lines Show 89-, 29-, 9-Day Trends
101
102
103
104
105
106
Mar 25
Apr 01
Apr 08
Apr 15
Apr 22
Apr 29
May 06
May 13
May 20
May 27
Jun 03
Jun 10
Jun 17
Jun 24
Germany: Daily Price Of 10-Year Bund
Channels Show 89-, 29-, 9-Day Trends, Spliced To Match 0.5% Bund Of February 2026
Carl B. Weinberg, Chief Economist
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
01 Q1
01 Q4
02 Q3
03 Q2
04 Q1
04 Q4
05 Q3
06 Q2
07 Q1
07 Q4
08 Q3
09 Q2
10 Q1
10 Q4
11 Q3
12 Q2
13 Q1
13 Q4
14 Q3
15 Q2
16 Q1f
United Kingdom: Current Account Balance, £Billions
Quarterly Rate, Line Shows Four-Quarter Moving Average
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
May 06
Nov 06
May 07
Nov 07
May 08
Nov 08
May 09
Nov 09
May 10
Nov 10
May 11
Nov 11
May 12
Nov 12
May 13
Nov 13
May 14
Nov 14
May 15
Nov 15
May 16f
United Kingdom: Growth Of Broad Money And Credit
Bars Are M4, Red Line Is Business Lending, Percent Change Year Ago
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15
Record!!
United Kingdom: Current Account As Share Of GDP
Quarterly Data 1959 Q1 To 2016 Q1f
750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000
Mar 01
Mar 02
Mar 03
Mar 04
Mar 05
Mar 06
Mar 07
Mar 08
Mar 09
Mar 10
Mar 11
Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
Mar 16
M4 Total
M4 Lending
United Kingdom: Broad Money Supply M4 And Lending
Billions Of Pounds Sterling
Carl B. Weinberg, Chief Economist
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
IMF Measure Of World Trade Value, Billions Of U.S. Dollars
Monthly Data Through February 2016
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Feb 02
Feb 03
Feb 04
Feb 05
Feb 06
Feb 07
Feb 08
Feb 09
Feb 10
Feb 11
Feb 12
Feb 13
Feb 14
Feb 15
Feb 16
IMF Measure Of World Trade Volume, Percent Change Year Ago
World Trade Volume In U.S. Dollars, (Right Axis), Black Line Is Three-Month Moving Average Green Line Shows HFE Index Of G-7 + China Industrial Output, (Left Axis)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
World Exports In U.S. Dollars, Percent Change Year Ago, Right Axis World GDP, Percent Change Year Ago, Left Axis
Yearly IMF Data Through 2014, HFE Forecast For 2015 Shown
IMF Measure Of World Trade Value Vs GDP Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Yearly GDP Growth 10-Year Average (Demonstrated Potential) GDP Growth
China: Yearly Economic Growth Rate, Percent
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
Brexit Vote’s U.S. Fallout: This Too Shall Pass?Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
256
328
400
472
544
616
688 -800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Payrolls, Ex-Temporary Census Hiring, ch, 3-Month Average, Thousands (Left) Jobless Claims, Monthly Average, Thousands Per Week (Inverted, Right)
Shaded Bars Denote Recession Periods
1. Sharp Slowing In Payrolls Is Not Being Corroborated In Claims
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Actual Reported Rate Mid-Point Of Fed Projections, As Of Nov 2011 Mid-Point Of Fed Projections, As Of Jun 2013 Mid-Point Of Fed Projections, As Of Jun 2014 Mid-Point Of Fed Projections, As Of Jun 2015 Median Of Fed Projections, As Of Jun 2016
Unemployment Rate, %
Median Fed Estimate For Longer-Run Normal Unemployment Rate: 4.8%
2. Mission Accomplished? Unemployment Has Reached Fed’s Goal
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ECI: Private Sector Wages Per Hour, %chya ECI: Private Sector Wages Per Hour, Ex Incentive-Paid Occupations, %chya Productivity Report: Compensation Per Hour, %chya Employment Report: Average Hourly Earnings, %chya Atlanta Fed Per-Hour Wage Tracker, %chya
Tax-Related Income Shifting Into 2012
3. NAIRU Framework Validation? Wage Gains Starting To Edge Up
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
0
1
2
3
4
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Core CPI Core PCE Cleveland Fed Median CPI Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI Cleveland Fed Trimmed-Median CPI Dallas Fed Trimmed-Mean PCE
% Change In Price Index From 12 Months Earlier
Fed Goal For PCE Prices
Core PCE
4. Various Core Inflation Series Have Been Edging Up
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
100
107
114
121
128
14 15 16
Fed's Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, Jan 1997 = 100
5. The Dollar: Up In Last Two Years, Down In Last Six Months
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
1000
1400
1800
2200
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US 10-Year Treasury Yield, % (Left) S&P 500 Index (Right)
6. S&P 500 Remains Near Its High
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16
Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index*
*Based on 11 financial markets series, covering money markets, bond markets and equity markets; positive readings imply accomodative financial conditions.
Shaded Bars Denote Periods Of Recession
1998 European Sovereign Debt Fears
U.S. Debt-Limit Saga
7. No Sign Of Any Major Change In Financial Conditions
www.hifreqecon.com/WebinarJune2016
HFE Global Webinar — June 27, 2016 Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. Economist
Daily Notes on the United States
10
45
80
115
150
40
60
80
100
120
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Michigan Sentiment Index (Left) Conference Board Confidence Index (Right)
1998 Market Turmoil
Shaded Bars Denote Recession Periods
Debt-Limit Scare
Govt Shutdown
8. Confidence Indexes Have Remained Fairly High