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JKL Aviation Grid Services
Dusty Harbage – Aviation Program Leader
Brian Schoettmer – Asst. Aviation Program Leader
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NWS Grid Methodology
• Various meteorological parameters are forecast by entering quantifiable values into a gridded database and shipped to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
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JKL Aviation Grids• Edited using Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) in
AWIPS.• Finished product is sent to National Digital
Forecast Database (NDFD) and to our website. (www.weather.gov/jkl)
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Aviation Grid Editing• Edits are made using certain “smart” tools to fit
the meteorological setup. Also, certain edit areas are used to define east Kentucky’s complex topography.-Ridges, Mountains, Valleys, Extreme Valleys, River Valleys, etc.
• Forecast values are entered into 2.5 km X 2.5 km grid boxes.
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Aviation Forecast vs. Public Forecast
• Public forecast parameters include- T, Td, RH, MaxT, MinT, Wind, Wind Gust, Sky, POP, POP12, WX, QPF, Snow Amount.
• Extra aviation forecast parameters include - Ceiling Height, Predominant Height, and Visibility
• Public forecast parameters are populated into the aviation grids.
- For example, sky cover from the public forecast is imported into the aviation grids and used to derive ceilings.
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Eastern Kentucky Topography
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East Kentucky Terrain• How do we depict terrain
differences?A common view from WFO JKL!
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Visibility Grids
River Valley Fog
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Valley Fog…
Ridges 10 SM
Valleys 5 SM
River Valleys3 SM
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Edit Areas
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Predominant and Ceiling Height Derivation
• Consider an approaching weather system with clear skies in place.
• Generally, you will have upper level clouds stream in first and slowly saturate the column. How is this depicted?
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Predominant and Ceiling Height Derivation
• Sky cover at a given hour.
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Predominant and Ceiling Height Derivation
• What the sounding might look like for an approaching system. Notice saturation of the upper levels first.
SCT – BKNClouds around20,000 feet.
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Predominant and Ceiling Height Derivation
• Use model data and upstream observations to forecast predominant height of the clouds.
Notice the lowering cloud heights (saturating the atmospheric column)
Virga
Rain
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Smart Tools Used• PredHgt_fm_Sky_Lowering
- great for incoming systems where cigs are gradually lowering as atmospheric column saturates.
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Predominant and Ceiling Height Derivation
• Once your sky cover and predominant height are determined, ceiling height can be derived using a “smart” tool that combines the two parameters.
Smart tool removes sky coverless than 57% since it is notconsidered a ceiling.
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Smart Tool Used
• CigHgtFmPredHgtAndSky (ceiling height from predominant height and sky)
- used to combine sky cover (cig/no cig) with predominant cloud height to determine cig height.
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The Big Picture
Sky Cover Grid
Predominant Height
Ceiling Height
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JKL’s Aviation Web Page• www.weather.gov/jkl
Click Here
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Aviation Web Services• Point and Click TAF’s. -our 3 TAF airports are highlighted in bold. Point
and click TAF’s can be obtained for any airport in the CWA with gridded data.
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The Final Product• What Do Our Customers See?
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The Final Product
Lowering Cigs No Cigs
Scattered Rain Showers
Lowering VisDue to Light Rain
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The Final Product• What Do Our Customers See?
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Aviation Grid Pros
• More data for pilots to use for supplementing an official weather brief.
• Presented in a graphical and easy-to-understand format.
- Hourly weather graphs• Point and Click “TAFS” - Airports that do not have TAF’s still have a
forecast.
• Easy to use information at your fingertips.
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Aviation Grid Cons• TEMPO weather conditions are not currently
depicted in the grids. Could this be done?• How do we handle varying terrain?
- Since CIGS are AGL, a smart tool is used to lower CIGS for higher terrain MSL. (MSL to AGL)- What is the proper conceptual model? How do cloud bases vary over complex terrain? (stratiform or convective)
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Cons Continued…• There is concern that the public will use gridded
information and not obtain an official weather brief.- NWS liability?
• In the end, it is the responsibility of the pilot in command (PIC) to obtain all necessary weather information to plan a flight. - Our gridded data should be used as a supplement to an official weather brief.
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Future Plans
• A proposal was sent to Central Region Headquarters suggesting ceiling and visibility grids for NDFD across CR.
• This will be a possibility once LAMP Guidance is available to populate in NDFD for initialization.
• JKL will likely be a test site when this occurs.