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JOINT UN-ECE/EUROSTAT MEETING ON POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUSES
GENEVA, 7-9 JULY 2010
BEYOND 2011: BUILDING A UK POPULATION SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE
IAN WHITE, Office for National Statistics,
UNITED KINGDOM
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UK STATISTICAL OFFICES
GROS, Edinburgh
England and WalesOffice for National Statistics (ONS)
ScotlandGeneral Register Office forScotland (GROS)
Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
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Population statistics since 1801
John Rickman, first census taker in 1801
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Population statistics since 1801
John Rickman, first census taker in 1801
Current data on the population
• Counts sex, age, marital status, etc
• Flows births, deaths, gross migration
• Structures households, families
• Characteristics ethnicity, economic activity, health, etc
• Geography NUTS 0, NUTS 1 ……… LAU 2 plus Output Areas
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Components of population change, UKmid-1998 to mid-2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Natural change Net migration & other changes
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Alternative approachesTraditional field enumerationSelf-completion questionnaire - UK, Ireland
Internet completion - Slovakia, Canada, UK
Interviewer questionnaire - Albania, Greece, Romania
Fully register-based Census - Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden
Combined (any mix of field enumeration, surveys,
registers) – Italy, Estonia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland
Rolling Census - France
Long-form/short form - USA
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Beyond 2011 Project
High level aims
• Feasibility of using integrated data sources
• Alternative data sources
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Beyond 2011 Work programme
Workstream 1User Requirements and
User Engagement
Workstream 2Administrative Data
Sources
Workstream 3Household Survey
Strategy and Alternative Census Designs
Workstream 4Enablers and Barriers
(IM Capacity; Data Security; Legal Aspects; Public Acceptability; Harmonisation of Definitions
Workstream 5Integration
Workstream 6Project Management
(including cost/benefit models for options; Business case iterations)
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Risks and issues
• Undermine response to the 2011 Census• No population register• Data quality• Maintenance• Public attitudes• Cross-government support• Funding
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Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Census • Well established • Rich data• Flexible• Small populations• Accurate• Checkable• A known quantity
But• Snapshot in time• Infrequent• Expensive• Burdensome• Dependent on public response
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Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Surveys
• Rich data• Reactive• Low cost• Frequent
But• Sample only• Estimates• Still some burden• Declining response rates
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Advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources
Administrative registers
• Minimal cost• Less burdensome• Continuous• High granularity
But• Non statistical• Variable coverage • Variable quality• Not all census topics covered • Inflexible• Non-comparable• No control• Legal issues
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Data models and potential options
1 The Census provides a population spine
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Data models and potential options
1 The Census provides a population spine
2 Administrative data is used for population estimates
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Data models and potential options
1 The Census provides a population spine
2 Administrative data is used for population estimates
3 A survey or rolling census is used
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Conclusions
• Early days
• Options to be reviewed and assessed
• No decision on traditional 2021 Census yet
• Strong requirement for a culture change
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Culture change
Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !
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Culture change
Nous ne fournissons pas l'information, nous la rassemblons seulement !
Thank you