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Jonathan Smith and Cal GheeMigration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD
Centre for Demography
Improving internal migration estimates of students
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Migration Statistics Improvement Programme
• Major cross government programme
• Package of improvements to migration statistics
introduced in 2007
• Next set of changes to be introduced in May 2010
• Revised population estimates mid-2002 to mid-2008
• Consultation on improvements begins November 2009
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Summary
• Context
• Proposed improvements using data from the
Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)
• Indicative results
• Uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics
Improvement Programme
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Context
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Context: HE student numbers 2007/08
• 2.3 million HE students
• 0.65 million 1st year undergraduates within England & Wales
• Represents 1% of the total England & Wales population
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Current population estimates method
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Current population estimates methodEstimated resident population at time T
Natural Change – add births, subtract deaths
International migration – add inflows, subtract outflows
Internal migration – add inflows, subtract outflows
Add special populations back in
Estimated resident population at time T+1
Remove special populations – UK armed forces, foreign armed forces, prisoners, school boarders
Age-on population by 1 year
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Accuracy of student migration estimates
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Why the focus on student migration?
• Some young people, particularly young men, do not change their GP registration soon after they move
• Students a sub-set of young people, who necessarily cluster in certain areas of the country
• Affects estimation of students moving to university and moving away after their studies
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Comparison of stocks - 2001
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
single year of age 18-29
po
pu
lati
on
GP registrationstocks mid-2001
Census-based populationestimate mid-2001
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Former students moving out of example area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
HESAstudentnumbers
mid-year estimates
2001
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Former students moving out of example area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers
HESAstudentnumbers
mid-year estimates
2001
2002
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Former students moving out of example area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers
HESAstudentnumbers
mid-year estimates
2001
2002
2003
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Former students moving out of example area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers
HESAstudentnumbers
mid-year estimates
2001
2002
20032004
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Former students moving out of example area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers
HESAstudentnumbers
mid-year estimates
2001
2002
20032004 2005
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Former students moving out of example area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers
HESAstudentnumbers
mid-year estimates
2001
2002
20032004 2005 2006
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Former students moving out of example area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers
HESAstudentnumbers
mid-year estimates
2001
2002
20032004 2005 2006 2007
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Comparison of Census and mid-2007 estimates
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
2001
2007
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Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)
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Identifying migration moves using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data
• Independent record of moves to university• Domicile address• Term-time address (from 2007/08)• Age and sex
• Wide range of other variables• Course length• Level of study• Start date / leave date• Nationality
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Access to Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data
• Identifiable record level data• Establishing legal gateway• Process complete by end 2009
• Anonymised data • Received March 2009• Used as the basis for improved internal migration
estimates (May 2010)
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Proposed student migration adjustments
• Estimates of students going to university
• Estimates of former students leaving
university
• Creating a back series for the above for
estimates for 2002 – 2007
• Creating a counter-adjustment to account for
when moves are eventually made
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Estimates of students going to university
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Estimates of former students leaving university
• HESA data does not record where former students move to
• How many people:
a) Finish studying
b) Move to a different LA
c) And don’t change registration with a GP
d) Remove former students from the LAs they were previously resident in and allocate them to the LAs they move to
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Estimates of former students leaving university
• Range of sources used for the adjustment• HESA • 2001 Census• Patient register of moves
• Necessary to assume that patterns have remained consistent since 2001
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Indicative results
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2007/08 indicative results for England and Wales
Total Males Females
Proposed ‘start of study’ adjustment
66,300 36,000 30,300
Proposed ‘end of study’ adjustment
35,317 24,379 10,938
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Indicative results: Ten largest increases
Local Authority Total AdjustmentManchester 8000Lambeth 6000Wandsworth 5500Southwark 5500Salford 5300Birmingham 5100Tower Hamlets 5100Westminster 4900Kingston Upon Hull UA 4200South Gloucestershire 4100
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Indicative results: Ten largest decreases
Local Authority Total AdjustmentOxford -6400Cambridge -5000Durham -3300Stockport -1900Lancaster -1800Macclesfield -1600Colchester -1600York UA -1500Harrogate -1400Powys UA -1300
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Indicative results: Adjustment for former students to first destinations
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Indicative results: Ceredigion mid 2007 population
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
single year of age, 10-35
po
pu
lati
on
original
adjusted
2001 pattern
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Additional uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme
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Further research using HESA data
Internal Migration• Record linkage between patient registers and HESA data
to identify and adjust for moves missed
International Migration• Foreign students who don’t live in households and so are
not sampled in the Labour Force Survey• Record linkage between international migrants identified
on patient registers and HESA data• Identification of foreign students likely to be short-term
migrants
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Likely short-term migrants on HESA data (2007/08)
Local Authority Overseas Short-term Migrant Students
Camden 5,200
Manchester 4,000
Cardiff 3,900
Islington 3,900
Newham 3,800
Newcastle-upon-Tyne
3,800
Coventry 3,200
Birmingham 2,900
Tower Hamlets 2,800
Leeds 2,800
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Summary
• Accuracy of internal migration estimates of students
• Availability of HESA data on student’s term-time address
• Proposed adjustment for moves at beginning and end of study
• Implemented into revised population estimates (mid-2002 to mid-2008)
• Wider research planned using HESA data
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Questions?