June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Recharge Policy AnalysisMoney, Facilities and Choices in the
Tucson Active Management Area
Kenneth SeasholesAssistant Area Director
Tucson Active Management AreaArizona Department of Water Resources
11th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater RechargeJune 5, 2003 Tempe, Arizona
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Recharge Planning
Pima Mine Rd.Pima Mine Rd.
ClearwaterClearwater
Lower Santa Cruz USF
Lower Santa Cruz USF
Avra USFAvra USF
BKWBKW
Kai-Red RockKai-Red Rock
Service Areas/CC&Ns
Operational USFs
Operational GSFs
Central Arizona Project
Groundw
aterflow
CMIDCMID
CAP Recharge Facilities
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
AVID Proposal
Service Areas/CC&Ns
Operational USFs
Operational GSFs
Central Arizona Project
CAP Recharge Facilities
• Mutually beneficial financing
• Additional facility capacity
• Potential on-site recovery
AWBA would indirectly finance a CAP pipeline to the AVID GSF
AVID
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
AVID Proposal
Service Areas/CC&Ns
Operational USFs
Operational GSFs
Central Arizona Project
CAP Recharge Facilities
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analysis
1998 Regional Recharge Plan
• Much of the report remains valid and useful
• Scenarios are outdated and inadequate
Updated analysis• More extensive physical & financial variables
• Emphasis on AWBA activities
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analysis
USF USF
GSF
AWBA
CAWCD
Property Tax
General
Fund
Cost of Water
Fac
ility
F
ees
$21/AF
With
draw
al
Fee
GroundwaterDemand
AvailableCapacity
Available
CAP Water
Credits
Recharge Facilities
Policy VariablesPhysical
• Facility capacity• CAP availability
Revenues• Tax• Fee• Fund
Expenses• Water• Fee
Credits• Firming• Water Management• Other
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analysis
=IF(N3-$F$14<=2001,($I$14*1000)/$F$14,0)
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analytic Tool
• DEMAND by sector & provider
• USF & GSF capacities & fees
• AWBA funding & storage
• STORAGE by facility, storer & year
• SUMMARY
Series of linked, interactive spreadsheets
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analytic Tool- Demand Time
Sec
tors
% C
AP
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analytic Tool- USFs
Fac
ilitie
s
Capacity
Cost
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analytic Tool- Storage
Year
Storers
Facilities
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Analytic Tool- AWBAAd Valorem tax
$0.0 mil.
$0.5 mil.
$1.0 mil.
$1.5 mil.
$2.0 mil.
$2.5 mil.
$3.0 mil.
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
year
$/A
F
Projected
Actual
Incentive Priced CAP
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
year
$/A
F
Firm
Advisory
Projected
“Baseline” Assumptions• Cost of water: CAP advisory rates through 2007, 3% growth thereafter
• Ad valorem tax: $1.6 million base, 3% annual growth
• Facility charge: flat $12, based on average cost at TAMA USFs and 2% GSF
“Baseline” Assumptions• Cost of water: CAP advisory rates through 2007, 3% growth thereafter
• Ad valorem tax: $1.6 million base, 3% annual growth
• Facility charge: flat $12, based on average cost at TAMA USFs and 2% GSF
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
• Lowering the cost of credits through buy-down of the $21/AF
“Baseline” 98% USF
Scenario Testing
Hypothetical Example
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down
“Baseline” 98% USF
Scenario Testing
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down
“Baseline” 98% USF
Scenario Testing30% USF; 70% GSF with $4/AF buy-down
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Issue Identification
• 200,000+ AF shortfall (30% below target)
• Shortfall reflects revenue constraints and cost of credits
• Will likely result in future groundwater mining
The Tucson AMA’s firming target will not be met with projected revenue
June 5, 200311th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge
Conclusions
Recharge policy analysis is complex and multivariate
Decision-support tools can provide insight and guidance
The water management implications of recharge warrant rigorous analysis