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Kåre Vassenden, Statistics Norway
ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics
Geneva, 17-19 October 2012
The quality of Norwegian data for The quality of Norwegian data for
analysis of return and circular analysis of return and circular
migrationmigration
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Background
Increasing demand for higher quality statistics on international migration
In short: ’more advanced statistics on international migration’
- return migration - circular migration - intra-EU mobility- measuring emigration using data collected by the receiving
country- the EU regulation on migration statistics
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Motivations
• Study and elaborate the relevant conceptual framework
• Find out more about the quality of – the Norwegian migration statistics
– the Nordic migration statistics. The effect of Nordic cooperation
• Strike a blow for the variables ’country of last/next residence’
• Express a wish for better dissemination of statistics on Internet
• Draw the attention to the superior level: the population balance
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Outline of the presentation
1. A general, theoretical discussion
2. Information on the situation in Norway
1. Including comparisons with other countries, in particular the Nordic
countries and the Netherlands.
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Indicators of quality
• Measuring quality – a real challenge
• Both qualitative and quantitative data
• Dates of migration (length of stay)
• Coverage of country of previous/next residence
• (The consistency between migration figures from different countries may indicate something about the quality)
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Non-Norwegian statistics used
• Data available on web sites– national databanks– the Nordic databank– Eurostat’s databank– direct request to some few NSIs
• Stored in spreadsheets, further processed in SAS
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Different perspectives observed on the treatment of international migration in statistics
• 1. National perspective The main interest is the dichotomy between the country of interest and the
outside world. ’Country of last/next residence’ is unimportant ’Citizenship’ goes a long way to describing the migration flows However, comparison with other countries is interesting and useful
• 2. International perspective• ’Country of last/next residence’ is fundamental
• Simplified version Seen from one country. International comparability does not have highest
priority
• True version With an birds eye perspective. International comparability is essential
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One country or more in the model
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Different return concepts
AB
C
Out-returnIn-return
‘False return’
True return
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The case of Norway
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Important frame conditions
• A well-functioning PIN
• A population registry with administrative authority
• Nordic agreement on population registration
• Long data history
• Broad scope of relevant registers and variables
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The correction factor
Growth_P = Population 31.12. – Population 1.1.
Growth_C = Births – Deaths + Immigration – Emigration
The correction factor as percentage =
Growth_P – Growth-C / (the highest of G-P and G-C) *100
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Size of correction factor – an indicator?
Year Nor-way
Swe-den
Den-mark
Fin-land
Ice-land
Green-land
Faroe Is-
lands Nether-
lands Belg-
ium Slo-
venia Austria
1996 -0.6 -2.4 1.5 7.9 -4.5 -20.6 0.0 6.1 12.5 -50.9 0.0 1997 -3.9 -9.4 1.4 7.3 5.2 -49.3 0.0 2.9 17.9 18.7 0.0 1998 -1.2 1.0 -0.2 8.8 2.8 81.8 0.0 0.9 0.3 50.1 0.0 1999 0.1 -6.3 3.1 5.6 0.5 -77.7 0.0 3.3 -2.9 89.6 0.0 2000 0.1 -0.8 3.2 -1.7 2.6 -53.1 0.0 2.6 1.2 5.6 0.0 2001 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 2.5 -3.6 15.2 0.0 4.4 0.9 50.1 21.2 2002 0.2 -0.7 2.6 0.3 -2.9 -38.2 0.0 3.7 5.7 34.0 2.9 2003 -0.2 -0.2 5.8 0.4 -3.9 22.5 0.0 11.3 6.9 8.4 6.4 2004 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 0.3 2.2 -36.8 -5.4 13.2 4.9 -13.7 5.6 2005 -0.3 -1.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 60.3 7.8 16.1 7.5 0.0 10.6 2006 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 4.3 0.0 22.8 5.2 0.0 3.4 2007 -0.2 -0.1 -9.1 1.2 0.5 11.8 -55.4 10.2 4.3 -99.3 -2.1 2008 -0.1 -0.4 -10.2 -0.2 -2.1 13.1 -0.3 6.4 12.4 0.0 -1.2 2009 -0.1 -0.5 -23.0 0.1 -4.0 -1.5 25.4 4.5 10.4 0.0 2.4 2010 -0.3 -0.3 -17.7 0.1 8.4 -20.1 47.2 -0.7 2011 -0.4 0.2 -31.6 -0.8 1.4 0.0 0.6
Sources: National statistical databases and the Nordic statistical database.
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An uneven distribution of length of stay indicates low accuracy
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Length of stay in Norway (months)
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Norway
Netherlands
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Percentage unknown country of next residence
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Norway – not Nordic
Norway – all
Sweden – not Nordic
Sweden – all
Percentage unknown country of next residence – emigration to Nordic countries excluded
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Recent developments and discoveries
• A separate variable distinguishes between – ‘notified emigration‘ and– ‘emigration by administrative decision’
• Turned out that country of next residence had been imputed in some cases
– > The real percentage unknown is even higher
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Percentage of emigration events registered by administrative decision, by citizenship
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
NorwayNetherland
GermanyUK
FrancePoland
LithuaniaSpain
CanadaUSA
AustraliaIndiaBrazil
ThailandRussia
RomaniaChina
PakistanPhilippines
Somalia
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Summary and conclusions (1)
• Norway has good preconditions for producing statistics on
return and circular migration
• The basic administrative system provides the necessary
data and the possibilities to exploit them
• However, the administrative definition of migration events
does fully comply with the statistical wishes
– Strict criteria for being registered as emigrated
• Emigration to other Nordic countries is handled by a system
that provides for full coverage of country of next residence
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Summary and conclusions (2)
• Emigration events to countries outside the Nordic ones have
substantial coverage problems at the variable country of
next residence
• The biggest problems relates to countries that are natural to
include in circular migration studies
• Totally dependant on the administrative system for
improvements. Possibilities within Statistics Norway are
depleted
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Further work on the problem of unknown country of next residence
• Obtain some qualitative information on the issue from other countries
• Collect more statistics for comparison purposes
• Develop the internal quality statistics
• Inform the Population registry about the findings, and follow up with further contact
• Learn more about the projects for exchange of national insurance data between EEA countries
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Thank you!Thank you!
Kåre VassendenStatistics NorwayDivision for Population [email protected]+47 62 88 52 94