KentuckyPostsecondary Education
and Economic Development
Council on Postsecondary Educationby
Paul A. Coomes, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics, and
National City Research Fellow
University of Louisville
May 24, 2004
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Western Kentucky University
Northern Kentucky University
Murray State University
Kentucky State University
University of Kentucky
Morehead University
Eastern Kentucky University
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University of Louisville
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Regions of Economic Forecast
Topics TodayOccupational outlook system for greater
Louisville economy, linked to educational institutions
The problem: low educational attainment, low earnings per job
The true labor markets around KentuckyIssues in building a system encompassing all
of Kentucky
Sort by Rate of Growth
Sort by Net Growth
Occupational details – O*NETnurses
Occupational details nurse skill requirements
County & Industry Info
Occupation descriptiontruck drivers
Outlook – Advanced Search
Advanced Search
High School/GED Healthcare Support
High School/GED or LessHealthcare Support
High School/GED Health Practitioners and Technical
The Problem
Low levels of formal education, low wages and salaries
College Education and Earnings120 Kentucky Counties, 2000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
% of Adults with College Degree, 2000
Ave
rage
Ann
ual E
arni
ngs pe
r Jo
b, 2
000
United States
25.1 % college
$36,400 earnings
College Education and Earnings120 Kentucky Counties, 2000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
% of Adults with College Degree, 2000
Ave
rage
Ann
ual E
arni
ngs pe
r Jo
b, 2
000
Fayette
Oldham
ScottHickman
EdmondsonLewis
McLean
College Attainment Rates, 1990-2000Louisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas
15 20 25 30 35 40
Dayton
Louisville
Memphis
Greensboro
Jacksonville
Birmingham
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Charlotte
Nashville
Omaha
Kansas City
Columbus
Richmond
Raleigh
United States
% of adults w/ College Degree
1990 Census
growth, 1990 to 2000
Louisville 14th, gained one rank in nineties
College Attainment and Earnings per JobLouisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas, 2000
$25,000
$27,000
$29,000
$31,000
$33,000
$35,000
$37,000
$39,000
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
% of adults with college degree, 2000
annu
al e
arni
ngs pe
r jo
b, n
on-m
anuf
actu
ring
in
dust
ries
, 200
0
College Attainment and Earnings per JobLouisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas, 2000
$25,000
$27,000
$29,000
$31,000
$33,000
$35,000
$37,000
$39,000
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
% of adults with college degree, 2000
annu
al e
arni
ngs pe
r jo
b, n
on-m
anuf
actu
ring
in
dust
ries
, 200
0
Louisville
Raleigh
Charlotte
Kansas City
Richmond
Greensboro
Dayton
Columbus
Memphis
Growth in College Enrollment, 1990 to 2000Louisville and Peer Metros, residents aged 18 and older
-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Louisville
Dayton
Kansas City
Cincinnati
Memphis
Birmingham
Columbus
Richmond
Greensboro
Indianapolis
Charlotte
Omaha
Jacksonville
Nashville
Raleigh
Source: US Census Bureau. The Louisville MSA had 54,900 students in 1990 and 50,800 in 2000.
enrollments peaked in 1991 with 53,463 enrollees, dipped to a low of 46,897 in 1996 and have been rising since.
Fall College Enrollments within the Louisville MSA 1990-2001
52,272
53,463
52,426
50,712
49,330
47,21046,897
47,178
48,313
49,760
51,207
54,541
40000
44000
48000
52000
56000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database for activity at area institutions. Colleges include those offering associate degrees and higher. No data available on enrollments for academic year 1999-2000 or professional degrees 2000-2001; data displayed are estimates based on interpolation of nearest values.
Clark
Harrison
Bullitt
Jefferson
Scott
Floyd
Oldham
Hardin
Nelson
Grayson
Shelby
Marion
Henry
Meade
Breckinridge
Larue
Washington
Jefferson
Crawford
Spencer
Trimble
Carroll
Washington
.-,65.-,71
.-,64.-,265.-,64
.-,65
.-,264
Ohio River
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23-County Louisville Region; 20037-County Louisville MSA 1990-2000Interstate Hwys.Ohio River
30 0 30 60 Miles
7-county Metropolitan Statistical Area 1990-2000 and 23-county Louisville Economic Region
Degree-granting Institutions Identified
Within the Louisville MSA
• In the academic year 2000-2001, eleven schools offered associate degrees or equivalent [yellow], three offered bachelor’s degrees only [blue], and eight schools offered bachelor’s, master’s, doctoral and/or first-professional [green].
School1990 Men
1990 Women
1990 Total
2000 Men
2000 Women
2000 Total
IVY TECH STATE COLLEGE-SOUTH CENTRAL 826 893 1,719 818 1,115 1,933JEFFERSON COMMUNITY COLLEGE 3,659 6,575 10,234 3,684 5,836 9,520LOUISVILLE TECHNICAL INSTITUTE 395 105 500 412 200 612NATIONAL EDUCATION CENTER KENTUCKY COL OF TECHN 229 110 339PHILLIPS COLLEGE 45 433 478RETS ELECTRONIC INSTITUTE 275 63 338 274 91 365WATTERSON COLLEGE 40 120 160JEFFERSON TECHNICAL COLLEGE* 290 290 580 1,041 471 1,512STENO-TYPE INSTITUTE OF LOUISVILLE 4 36 40ITT TECHNICAL INSTITUTE 306 48 354KENTUCKY CAREER INSTITUTE 45 52 97SPENCERIAN COLLEGE 8 193 201SULLIVAN UNIVERSITY 481 1,232 1,713 1,056 2,156 3,212COLLEGE OF THE SCRIPTURES 5 3 8PORTLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL OF BIBLICAL STUDIES 3 1 4SIMMONS BIBLE COLLEGE 70 27 97 0 23 23BELLARMINE UNIVERSITY 1,569 2,338 3,907 999 1,849 2,848INDIANA UNIVERSITY-SOUTHEAST 2,101 3,541 5,642 2,421 4,006 6,427LOUISVILLE BIBLE COLLEGE 39 16 55 105 25 130LOUISVILLE PRESBYTERIAN THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY 91 84 175 139 111 250SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY 1,661 584 2,245 1,748 572 2,320SPALDING UNIVERSITY 172 887 1,059 384 1,248 1,632UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE 10,747 12,232 22,979 8,916 10,855 19,771Totals 22,702 29,570 52,272 22,356 28,851 14,393
Total Fall Enrollment, 1990 Total Fall Enrollment, 2000Fall Enrollment at Post-Secondary Institutions in the Louisville MSA
30 0 30 60 Miles
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LOuisville MSA 1990-2000
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$T
Hanover College
$TElizabethtown Community College
Saint Catherine College
$T Ivy Tech Southeast
$T
Elizabethtown Technical College
Louisville MSA 1990-2000
There are five colleges outside of the 7-county metro area but inside the 23-county economic region. We will track these schools as well, but they are not included in this analysis.
Total Enrollmentsin Local Degree-granting Institutions
Academic Year 2000-2001
In Fall 2000, there were 51,207 students enrolled in degree-granting institutions in the Louisville metro area. Of this total, approximately 39% were enrolled at the University of Louisville, 19% at Jefferson Community College, and 13% at Indiana University (IU) Southeast.
In total, 7 of 10 students enrolled went to these three institutions.
U of L38%
Jefferson Community
College19%
IU Southeast13%
other30%
Trends by Type of Degree
• In the Louisville MSA, the number of associate’s degrees conferred are declining, while bachelor’s and master’s degrees earned are increasing.
Degrees Awarded by Type of Degree;Trends 1991 through 200116 Comparison Metros
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Master's Degrees Doctor's Degrees First-Professional DegreesSource: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsceondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database
Degrees Awarded by Type of Degree;Trends 1991 through 2001
Louisville Metro Area
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees Master's Degrees Doctor's Degrees First-Professional Degrees
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsceondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. Metro total calculated by querying database
Occ Code Occupation Title Job Level School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4
299099 Healthcare Practitioners and Technicians 3 156648 156471 156930 151041
319091 Dental Assistants 3 157289
319092 Medical Assistants 3 157793 151041 156930 157766
291071 Physician Assistants 4 156921 157766
291111 Registered Nurses 4 157289 156286 157757 156921
Job Level
Education/Experience
1 No previous work-related skill, knowledge, or experience necessary.
2 Some previous work-related skill, knowledge, or experience helpful or necessary.
3 Previous work-related skill, knowledge, or experience required.
4 A minimum of two to four years of skill, knowledge or educational preparation required.
5 Extensive skill, knowledge, and experience required. Often requires more than five years of experience.
Occ Code Occupation Title Job Level School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4
299099 Healthcare Practitioners and Technicians 3 156648 156471 156930 151041
319091 Dental Assistants 3 157289
319092 Medical Assistants 3 157793 151041 156930 157766
291071 Physician Assistants 4 156921 157766
291111 Registered Nurses 4 157289 156286 157757 156921
School ID Institution Name & Level(s) of Degree Offered
Address Phone Website
156648 Elizabethtown Community College;
Associate’s
600 College Street Road, Elizabethtown KY. 42701
270-769-2371
www.elizabethtowncc.com/
156471 Galen Health Institute;
Non-degree Granting
612 S Fourth Street, Louisville, KY 40202
502-582-2305
www.nursingcareer.com/
156930 Jefferson Technical College;
Non-degree Granting
727 W. Chestnut Street, Louisville, KY. 40203
502-213-5333
www.jtc.kctcs.edu
Occ Code Occupation Title Job Level School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4
299099 Healthcare Practitioners and Technicians 3 156648 156471 156930 151041
319091 Dental Assistants 3 157289
319092 Medical Assistants 3 157793 151041 156930 157766
291071 Physician Assistants 4 156921 157766
291111 Registered Nurses 4 157289 156286 157757 156921
School ID Institution Name & Level(s) of Degree Offered
Address Phone Website
157289 University of Louisville;
Associate’s through Doctor’s and First Professional
2301 S. Third Street, Louisville, KY 40292
502-852-5555
www.louisville.edu
156286 Bellarmine University; Bachelor’s through Master’s
2001 Newburg Road, Louisville, KY 40205
502-452-8000
www.bellarmine.edu
157757 Spalding University; Associate’s through Doctor’s
851 S. Fourth Street Street, Louisville, KY. 40203
502-585-9911
www.spalding.edu
The True Labor Markets Around Kentucky
Ashland
Paducah
Jackson
Nashville
Cincinnati
Louisville
Evansville
Clarksville
Elizabethtown
Bowling Green
Memphis
Lexington
Owensboro
HuntingtonCharleston
Hopkinsville
Economic Areas Containing Kentucky Countiesas defined by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Charleston
Lexington
Cincinnati-Hamilton
Nashville
LouisvilleEvansville-Henderson
Paducah
Memphis
Fort Knox
Fort Campbell
Bluegrass Army Depot
Issues in Developing Statewide System
1. Identifying true labor market boundaries
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Owensboro
Evansville
Clarksville
AshlandHuntington
Cincinnati
Elizabethtown
Bowling Green
LouisvilleLexington-Fayette
Paducah
MayfieldMurray
Central CityMadisonville
Glasgow
Campbellsville
Somerset
Danville
Richmond
London
Corbin
Middlesborough
Frankfort Mount Sterling
Morehead
Maysville
Covington
Regions of Economic Forecast
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Western Kentucky University
Northern Kentucky University
Murray State University
Kentucky State University
University of Kentucky
Morehead University
Eastern Kentucky University
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University of Louisville
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Regions of Economic Forecast
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#YAshland
Owensboro
Evansville
Louisville
Cincinnati
Huntington
Clarksville
Bowling Green
Elizabethtown
Lexington
Illinois
OhioIndiana
Illinois
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
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Kentucky CountiesMetropolitan CountiesInterstatesRiversLakes
#Y Principal Metro Cities
New Definitions – 9 Metropolitan Statistical Areas containing 36 KY counties and 2.4 million residents
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Corbin
London
Murray
Glasgow
Paducah
DanvilleRichmond
Somerset
Frankfort
Maysville
Union City
Central CityMadisonville
Campbellsville
Middlesborough
Mount Sterling
Mayfield
Hanover
Ironton
Portsmouth
Cumberland Gap
Madison
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Kentucky CountiesMicropolitan CountiesInterstatesRiversLakes
$T Other Area Cities$T Principal Micro Cit ies
New Definitions – 14 Micropolitan Statistical Areas containing KY counties
New Definitions –23 Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas containing 61 KY counties and 3.1 million residents
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#Y
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Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
Ashland
Owensboro
Evansville
Louisville
Cincinnati
Huntington
Clarksville
Bowling Green
Elizabethtown
Lexington
Corbin
London
Murray
Glasgow
Paducah
DanvilleRichmond
Somerset
Frankfort
Maysville
Union City
Central CityMadisonville
Campbellsville
Middlesborough
Mount Sterling
Mayfield
HanoverIronton
Portsmouth
Cumberland Gap
Madison
100 0 100 200 Miles
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Kentucky CountiesMicropolitan CountiesMetropolitan CountiesInterstatesRiversLakes
$T Other Area Cities$T Principal Micro Cit ies#Y Principal Metro Cities
Issues in Developing Statewide System
2. Identifying and tracking activity at relevant postsecondary institutions in
each labor market
Answer: IPEDS
Issues in Developing Statewide System
3. Policy implications?
First: fact-based policy discussionsTrack shortages, surpluses of programs in
each labor market?Consider more reciprocity/coordination across
state lines, particularly along Ohio River?Consider more coordination with private
providers and/or college vouchers?
for research reports, see
http://monitor.louisville.edu