Download - Key Technology Trajectories
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Looking into Technologies
How would a Tech. evolve?
How is it related to the whole?
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Looking into Technologies
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reale)(Pcasuale realeC
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Year 2004 3,090 2,899 0,164 0,051
Year 2010 3,000 2,774 0,266 0,055
Year 2020 2,781 2,689 0,270 0,058
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
02468
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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
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Looking into Technologies
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
02468
1012141618
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
k
n(k
)
#c
#n
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reale ordinato realeC ordinatoC
Year 2004 3,090 9,838 0,164 0,439
Year 2010 3,000 9,035 0,266 0,494
Year 2020 2,781 8,646 0,270 0,504
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Looking into Technologies
How would a Tech. evolve?
How is it related to the whole?
What are the crucial impacts?(passive/active)
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Technology Trajectories
3D Imaging Artificial Life Broadband Communications Content Creation Data Capture Encryption Gaming Platforms Gaming Storage Human Interfacing Image Recognition Information Coding Information Displaying Information Retrieval Interactivity
Language Understanding Embedded System Multimode Person Identification Pin Pointing Printing Atoms Processing Profiling Seamless Ubiquitous Access Security Sensing Shadowing Storage Virtual Presence Terminals/Wearable
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Technology Trajectories
Full discussion for Telecom Related Trajectories in
HEIDELBERG, Germany – November 9th , 2004
You are invited to join!
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Technologies Trajectories Artificial Life
Robotics
Virtual Reality
Self creation: assembling / replicating
Self adaptation: reconfiguration/healing
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Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Towards increased
flexibility
Support variety ofapplication fields
Today: Europe, USA, Japan Tomorrow: Varies depending on appl.field
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Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous
Towards real independence
Support remote exploration, AmI
Today: Japan, USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
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Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic
Towards closer, spontaneousinteractions, seamlessintegration, smarterrobots
Support augmented life,healthcare, prosthetics
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?
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Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic Social
Towards seamless interaction Entertainment, Education,…
Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan
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Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic Social MicroRobots
Towards better movement capabilities nanoRobots for health care
Support ambient exploration, sensing Today: USA (nanoRobots), Europe Tomorrow: ?
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Artificial Life - Robotics
Trajectories
Production oriented Autonomous Symbiotic Social MicroRobots Swarm (Physical, Sw)
Towards collective autonomous intelligence Support ambient sensing, Meta-Info harvest Today: USA Tomorrow: USA
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Disruptions: Looking for “x”
Disruption
Time
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Looking for “x” in processing
?
Time
Mainframes
Mini
PC
PDA
Tablet PC
Smart Obj.GRID
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Looking for “x” in health care
Disruptions, signpostTime
UnderstandingSpecificity
Human Genoma
Drug synthesesFast Mapping
Symbioses
MonitoringBio-Substitution
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Looking for “x” in health care
Disruptions, signpostTime
Human Genoma
Drug synthesesFast Mapping
Symbioses
MonitoringBio-Substitution
Wet WareBio PrintingSensors – U.Acc.Hi.Sp. ProcessingMolecular comp.
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Disruptions
Transformation of Products into Services
The Disappearance of the Computer
Ubiquitous seamless connectivity
Changing Traffic Patterns
Infinite Bandwidth
Disposable Products
Autonomous Systems
From Content to Packaging
The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures
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From Products to Services
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From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Embedding of communications capabilities Rising of profiling Cheaper production processes
Embedded Systems Seamless Ubiquitotus Access Communications
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From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Products becoming commodities Loss of differentiation capabilities Increased copycat possibilities
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From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Transformation into service companies Shortening of products’ life cycle Strong increase in call centers Automated customised assistance Increased globalisation of the market Restructuring of the value chain
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From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Health care Entertainment Transportation Consumer appliances Education …
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From Products to Services
Technological Enabling Factors
Market Driven Factors
Industry Impact
Market Sectors Affected
Likeliness to happen
Disruption is already occurring Connectivity bundled as a service feature Appliance bundled in connectivity