Download - Kim Cobb's Water isotopes talk at AGU
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Precipitation and seawater isotopes from Hawaii to the equator across the 2014-2015ENSO cycle
Kim M. Cobb (Georgia Tech)@coralsncaves
Jessica L. Conroy (U. Illinois Urbana-Champaign)
Christopher Bosma, Lucas Everitt, Pamela Grothe(Georgia Inst. of Technology)
Jessica Moerman (Johns Hopkins)
Julia Baum (U. Victoria)
David Noone (Oregon State University)
Samantha Stevenson, Mark Farnsworth (NOAA)
Brian Powell, Mark Merrifield, Niklas Schneider (U. Hawaii-Manoa)
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Coral d18O reconstructions of climate require anunderstanding ofseawater d18O variations
World Ocean Atlas, 2009
(E-P) oceancirculation
seawater d18O(salinity?)
climate
Coral d18O = SST + d18Osw
d18Ovapor
d18Orain
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To unlock the full potential of paleo-isotope records,we need to know:
1) How does d18O of seawater vary through space and time?(and relationship to salinity?)
2) What are the relative contributions of ocean circulationversus atmospheric fluxes to d18Osw variability at a given site?
3) What are the local vs. regional drivers of rainfalld18O variability at a given site?
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To unlock the full potential of paleo-isotope records,we need to know:
1) How does d18O of seawater vary through space and time?(and relationship to salinity?)
2) What are the relative contributions of ocean circulationversus atmospheric fluxes to d18Osw variability at a given site?
3) What are the local vs. regional drivers of rainfalld18O variability at a given site?
Applications: improve paleo-proxy interpretations validation/assimilation data for isotope- equipped models
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Borneo
Cobb lab daily rainwater collections began in 2005 in Borneo
Map of pastand/or presentGNIP rainfallcollection sites;plotted on rainfall δ18Osource here
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Oahu
ChristmasPalmyra
Galapagos
Ecuador
Palau
PNG
Borneo
Cobb/Conroy lab water isotope collection sites daily rainwaters since 2005, weekly seawaters since 2012
Map of pastand/or presentGNIP rainfallcollection sites;plotted on rainfall δ18Osource here
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml
The right place at the right time . . .
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
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Aspects of the water isotope budget that changeacross a major El Niño event:
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Aspects of the water isotope budget that changeacross a major El Niño event:
EVERYTHING
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Aspects of the water isotope budget that changeacross a major El Niño event:
EVERYTHING
Focus on rainfall, seawater d18O obs today . . .
But seePP41D-06 Identifying Oxygen Isotopic Signatures of ENSO Dynamics Through Isotope-Enabled Regional Ocean ModelingS. Stevenson et al., Thursday 9:15am MW 2010
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Christmas coral d18O vs. iso-ROMS coral d18O
Stevenson et al.,Paleo. 2015
coral
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Christmas coral d18O vs. iso-ROMS coral d18O
Stevenson et al.,Paleo. 2015
coral
GOAL:iso-hindcast of 2014-2016 ENSO cycle
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2015: A record-breaking El Niñoin central tropical Pacific
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2015: A record-breaking El Niñoin central tropical Pacific
FieldworkNov 2015Nov 1997
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loggers track open-ocean temperatures
water temperatures > 31°C measured last month at Christmas Island
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leeward and windward side quite similar,at least during El Niño event
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d18 O
(‰)
Christmas Rainfall d18ORa
infa
ll (m
m/d
ay) Christmas Rainfall Amount
-4.2‰-2.1‰
2210
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d18 O
(‰)
Christmas Rainfall d18ORa
infa
ll (m
m/d
ay) Christmas Rainfall Amount
-4.2‰2.1‰
2210
Getting more rain, and lighter rain,during El Niño event
impact on seawater isotope budget?
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dD=5.8d18O+7.7dD=7.0d18O+6.5dD=8.1d18O+13.3dD=7.7d18O+13.0
2014
2015
Christmas Rainfall LMWLs
d18O (‰)
dD (‰
)
LMWL slope goes from~5 during normal conditions to ~8during El Niño event
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dD=5.8d18O+7.7dD=7.0d18O+6.5dD=8.1d18O+13.3dD=7.7d18O+13.0
2014
2015
Christmas Rainfall LMWLs
d18O (‰)
dD (‰
)
LMWL slope goes from~5 during normal conditions to ~8during El Niño event
d-excess goes from10‰ to 15‰ goinginto El Niño event
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d18 O
sw (‰
)Christmas Seawater d18O
Salin
ity (p
su)
Christmas Salinity
0.2‰
0.48‰
34.434.6‰
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d18 O
sw (‰
)Christmas Seawater d18O
Salin
ity (p
su)
Christmas Salinity
0.2‰
0.48‰
34.434.6‰
>0.3‰ decrease in d18Osw
will have major effect on coral d18O
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d18 O
(‰)
Christmas SSS vs seawater d18Osw
Salinity (psu)
d18Osw– SSSrelationshippoorly constrained,but little changeoutside El Niñoevent
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d18 O
(‰)
Christmas SSS vs seawater d18Osw
Salinity (psu)
d18Osw– SSSrelationshippoorly constrained,but little changeoutside El Niñoevent
we will add 4xmore data byend of 2016,spanningstrong La Niña event
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Oahu
ChristmasPalmyra
Galapagos
Ecuador
Palau
PNG
Borneo
A pan-Pacific iso-view of a strong ENSO extreme
Map of pastand/or presentGNIP rainfallcollection sites;plotted on rainfall δ18Osource here
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Conclusions
The 2015/2016 El Niño event has already led to:
anomalous warming of ~4°C on Christmas reef
doubling of rainfall rates, and ~2‰ decrease in d18OR, consistent with amount effect
~0.3‰ decrease in d18OSW
expect coral d18O decrease of >1‰
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Opportunities for capacity-building
TPOS2020: isotope-equipped?or at least iso-friendly by design? (urgent)
We need a new archive for water isotope data.- interest in community workshop?
Fate of long-term isotopic timeseries?
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THANKS
THANKS