![Page 1: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective
Andrea Cattaneo
Seminar presented at:Center for International Development
January 30, 2003
![Page 2: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OverviewOverview
• Briefly discuss the issue of scale
• Potential issues/drivers linked to land use change in Brazil
• Entry points to discuss economy-environment links
• Compare the order of magnitude of impact on deforestation of a subset of “drivers” of land use change
![Page 3: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Choosing the Appropriate Scale Choosing the Appropriate Scale
Key theme to modeling across scale:
The relationship between what we see and the scale at which we measure it.
Leaf Branch Tree Forest
• New properties emerge when data are aggregated: Operational scale - the scale at which a process operates
• different research questions require different scales of measurement
• In fact, many models are scale dependent
![Page 4: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Brazil: A Multi-Regional ApproachBrazil: A Multi-Regional Approach
Issues Crisis of Brazilian Currency Subsidies & Taxes Reduction in Amazon transportation
costs Tenure Regimes Technological Innovation
Method Regional CGE model for Brazil
![Page 5: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Producers
Product Product MarketsMarkets
Factor Factor MarketsMarkets
Institutions
FactorFactorCosts Costs
WagesWages& Rents & Rents
Demand for Demand for IntermediateIntermediate
Inputs Inputs
SalesSalesRevenues Revenues Final DemandFinal Demand
Waste SinkWaste Sink
AmenitiesAmenitiesEnergy +Energy +MaterialsMaterials
Land/WaterLand/Water
??
??
Economy-Environment LinksEconomy-Environment Links
![Page 6: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Regional Disaggregation of ModelRegional Disaggregation of Model
![Page 7: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Structural Model CharacteristicsStructural Model Characteristics
• Detailed representation of regional agricultural technologies: small and large farms
• Segmented capital markets
• Model allows for excess supply in factor markets
• Econometrically estimated migration functions
![Page 8: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Structural Model… (continued)Structural Model… (continued)
• Regional trade and transportation margins
• Deforestation Sector: produces arable land
• Biophysical processes affect land use
![Page 9: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Process/Driver Scenario Sub-cases % change in deforestation
Tenure Regimes in Amazon
Remove speculative incentives to deforest
-23%
Technological Change Innovation in
agriculture: 1985-1995
Amazon Innovation +48%
Extra-Amazon -27%
Combined effect +2%
Transportation Costs
20% reduction in costs for Amazon products
+40%
Currency Devaluation 40% Real devaluation
Capital flight +15%
Balanced Contraction
-15%
Global externality considerations
Subsidize conservationR$1.21 per carbon ton of reduced emissions
-30%
Tax deforestation tax of R$0.25 per carbon ton emitted
-43%
ScaleScale
Amazon
Inter-regional
National
International
![Page 10: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
South/SE22%
Productivity Improvements in Brazilian Agriculture (1985-1995)
Northeast24%
Legal Amazon30%
Center-West54%
![Page 11: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Process/Driver Scenario Sub-cases % change in deforestation
Tenure Regimes in Amazon
Remove speculative incentives to deforest
-23%
Technological Change Innovation in
agriculture: 1985-1995
Amazon Innovation +48%
Extra-Amazon -27%
Combined effect +2%
Transportation Costs
20% reduction in costs for Amazon products
+40%
Currency Devaluation 40% Real devaluation
Capital flight +15%
Balanced Contraction
-15%
Global externality considerations
Subsidize conservationR$1.21 per carbon ton of reduced emissions
-30%
Tax deforestation tax of R$0.25 per carbon ton
-43%
ScaleScale
AmazonAmazon
Inter-Inter-regionalregional
NationalNational
InternationalInternational
![Page 12: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Innovation and Agronomic Sustainability in the Amazon: stock effects vs. expectation effects
Improvements in Annuals
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Productivity improvement
defo
rest
atio
n ra
te (%
cha
nge)
Improvements in Livestock
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Productivity improvementde
fore
stat
ion
rate
(% c
hang
e)
Sustainability improvements: annuals or livestock? annuals decrease deforestation, livestock increases
deforestationProductivity improvements increase deforestation
Increasing sustainability Increasing
sustainability
![Page 13: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Strengths of the “macro” approach…Strengths of the “macro” approach…
• The structure of the model allows for multiple land use The structure of the model allows for multiple land use change mechanismschange mechanisms
• A lot of structural information is readily available:A lot of structural information is readily available:
economic accounting constraints economic accounting constraints
factor intensitiesfactor intensities
Survey data: ag census, production, household, labor statisticsSurvey data: ag census, production, household, labor statistics
• The economic structure can be linked to environmental The economic structure can be linked to environmental processesprocesses
![Page 14: Land Use Change in Brazil: A macro-regional perspective](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a9b550346895d8e5392/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
… … and the inevitable weaknesses and the inevitable weaknesses
• Uncertainty about parameters: rarely estimated Uncertainty about parameters: rarely estimated econometricallyeconometrically
• Lack of spatial detail is a drawback if environmental Lack of spatial detail is a drawback if environmental variables are heterogeneous over spacevariables are heterogeneous over space
• Requires a lot of effort to build a good model: no easy Requires a lot of effort to build a good model: no easy off-the-shelf answers to difficult questions. off-the-shelf answers to difficult questions.