Download - Last Ice Area Project WWF Bruno Tremblay – David Huard David Huard Solution McGill University
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice ExtentExtent
NSIDC, 2012
Ice
Ext
ent (
mil
lion
km
2 )
Year
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice ExtentExtent
NSIDC, 2012
Ice
Ext
ent (
mil
lion
km
2 )
Year
7.50
3.75
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VolumeVolume
PIOMASPIOMASIc
e V
olum
e (1
000
km3 )
Year
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VolumeVolume
PIOMASPIOMASIc
e V
olum
e (1
000
km3 )
Year
16.0
4.0
Minimum Sea Ice Extent Minimum Sea Ice Extent ProjectionsProjections
Most models project at Most models project at least some September least some September
sea ice through the end sea ice through the end of the centuryof the century
Based on Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, GRL 2006
Consensus on Likely Consensus on Likely Location of the Location of the
Last Sea Ice AreaLast Sea Ice AreaObservations – Ice Age CCSM
Part IPart I
Over 30 participating GCMsOver 30 participating GCMs Diagnostics:Diagnostics:
Sea Ice ExtentSea Ice Extent Sea Ice ThicknessSea Ice Thickness Snow DepthSnow Depth
SimulationsSimulations Historical period: 1979-1999Historical period: 1979-1999 2121stst century climate: 2000-2010, 2010- century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-
2020,…, 2090-21002020,…, 2090-2100
Future Sea ice Condition from Low Resolution Climate Models
Part IIPart II
MITgcmMITgcm Diagnostics:Diagnostics:
Sea Ice ExtentSea Ice Extent Sea Ice ThicknessSea Ice Thickness Snow DepthSnow Depth
SimulationsSimulations 2121stst century climate: 2000-2010, 2010- century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-
2020,…, 2090-21002020,…, 2090-2100
Future Sea ice Condition from High Resolution Regional Models
Projected May Sea Ice Projected May Sea Ice ConcentrationConcentration
18
Sta
tus
Rev
iew
of
the
Rin
ged
Sea
l (P
ho
ca
his
pid
a) B
. P
. K
ell
y,
J.
L.
Be
ng
tso
n,
P.
L.
Bo
ve
ng
, M
. F
. C
am
ero
n,
S.
P.
Da
hle
, J
. K
. J
an
se
n,
E.
A.
Lo
ge
rwe
ll,
J.
E.
Ov
erl
an
d,
C.
L.
Sa
bin
e,
G.
T.
Wa
rin
g,
an
d J
. M
. W
ild
er
De
ce
mb
er
20
10
Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum
Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum
Projected July Sea Ice Projected July Sea Ice ConcentrationConcentration
19
Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum
Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010
Projected November Sea Ice Projected November Sea Ice ConcentrationConcentration
20
Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum
Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010
GoalGoal
Investigate the geographical pattern Investigate the geographical pattern of the sea ice decline in the Arctic of the sea ice decline in the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic Archipelagoand the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Impact on ice dependent speciesImpact on ice dependent species