PetroChemicalConsultinggAlliance
Latin America Petrochemical and Polymers OutlookPolymers Outlook
bbyJorge O. Bühler-Vidal
ICIS World Chemical Purchasing SummitgBoston
September 13, 2012
North Brunswick Los Ángeles Bogotá São Paulo Buenos Aires
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.comAPLA Logística 12 de junio, 2012
North Brunswick – Los Ángeles – Bogotá – São Paulo – Buenos AiresBahía Blanca – Mendoza – Santiago – Porto Alegre – Guatemala – Atlanta – Charleston – Houston – New York
O tliOutlineIntroductionProducers and demandGrowing companiesRegional situationRegional situation– Brazil– Bolivia
Peru– Peru– Venezuela– Mexico– OthersOthers
The value chainSourcing products and servicesOpportunities
A l ti f t ti l t iti
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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An exploration of potential opportunities
PetroChemicalConsulting
Provides consulting products and services to clients in the
gAlliance
worldwide petrochemical and plastics industries, combininglocal insights with a global perspective
Members
– Dr. Alfredo Friedlander, Buenos Aires, Argentina– INovatius ICS, São Paulo, Brazil – Meem Consulting, Costa Mesa, CA, USA– Multidynamics Ltda., Bogotá, Colombiay , g ,– Polyolefins Consulting, LLC, North Brunswick, NJ, USA
Th b d t t k f t h i l lt t i th
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The broadest network of petrochemical consultants in the American continent
F ti l d hi lPetroChemicalConsultingFunctional and geographical coverage
Highly experienced consultants l t d th h t th
Professionals specialized in:P j l i
gAlliance
located throughout the Americas
– Argentina• Buenos Aires, Bahia Blanca,
– Project planning– Product development and
applications– Development and selection of
d ti t h lMendoza– Brasil
• São Paulo, Porto Alegre– Chile
production technology– Operations– Logistics– Commercialization, marketing and
• Santiago– Peru
• Lima– Colombia
gsales
– Technology and technical service for converters
Colombia• Bogotá
– Guatemala• Guatemala
U S A
Relationships with related and complementary consulting firms
– U.S.A.• Los Angeles, Houston,
Atlanta, Charleston, New York
C i l l fi d t f th t h i l
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Covering polyolefins and sectors of the petrochemical industry functionally and geographically
L ti A i A R i K bLatin America - A Region Known by…Natural wonders and culture
Is generating global brands
H ll itiHas a generally positive business environment– The world’s most pacific
regionregion– Joined by two major
languages– Generally stable
tgovernments– Mildly affected by the
global economic crisis– Generally investment– Generally investment
friendly
Wh th t iti ?
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Where are the opportunities?
External Perception of Latin America and the C ibbCaribbean
Brasil, Chile, Peru and Colombia– Predictable without surprises– Predictable, without surprises– Government encouraging investments
and projects
Bolivia, Ecuador, Trinidad & Tobago, and VenezuelaVenezuela
– Vulnerable, depend on one main export product
Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela E ti i li i f d l– Erratic economic policies, fuzzy models
– Legal uncertainty
México– Very interconnected with the U S– Very interconnected with the U.S.– Declining oil reserves
Braskem and Petrobras are behind most ofthe regional polyolefins projects
The most active area for petrochemical projects after
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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The most active area for petrochemical projects after Asia, Middle East, and U.S.-Canada
Significant Petrochemical Countries G D ti P d t A l G th [%]Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth [%]
Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 f 2013 f
North America 2 0 2 2 2 5North America 2.0 2.2 2.5Canada -2.8 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.2Mexico -6.3 5.5 4.0 3.6 3.7United States -3.5 3.0 1.7 2.1 2.4South America 4.8 3.8 4.3Argentina 1 0.9 9.2 8.9 4.2 4.0Bolivia 3.4 4.1 5.1 5.0 5.0Brazil -0.3 7.5 2.7 3.0 4.1Brazil 0.3 7.5 2.7 3.0 4.1Chile -0.9 6.1 5.9 4.3 4.5Colombia 1.7 4.0 5.9 4.7 4.4Ecuador 0.4 3.6 7.8 4.5 3.9P 0 9 8 8 6 9 5 5 6 0Peru 0.9 8.8 6.9 5.5 6.0Venezuela -3.2 -1.5 4.2 4.7 3.2Caribbean 2.8 3.5 3.6Trinidad and Tobago -3.3 0.0 -1.3 1.7 2.4
Source: IMF, April 2012. Figures are based on official GDP data. f - Forecasted figures.1 Estimates by private analysts have shown growth that is, on average, significantly lower than official GDP growth from 2008 onward..
IMF sees Latin America very dependent on commodity
Latin America and Caribbean -1.6 6.2 4.5 3.7 4.1
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IMF sees Latin America very dependent on commodity prices, vulnerable to a slowdown in China and Asia
C it f L t Th l ti P dCapacity of Largest Thermoplastic Producers
WorldwideAmericas PE – PP – PVC
8,000
10,000
12,000
510
1 2305,000
6,000
7,000
10,914
9,3118,668
7,7497,284 7,109
6,541 6,460
4,000
6,000kt/yr
2,915
4,077
1,230
4,200
627
1,731
1,210
2 000
3,000
4,000
kt/yrPVCPPPE
, 6,460
4,681 4,564 4,303 4,079
0
2,000
LyondellBasell
Exxon Mobil Sinopec Dow Formosa SABIC INEOS Braskem Total IPIC Reliance PetroChina
3,0352,525
1,050
8222,340 2,311
0
1,000
2,000
Braskem Exxon Mobil Dow Lyondell Basell Formosa Shintech Chevron Phillips
R i h th f th ld’ l t d
Source: Braskem
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Region has three of the world’s largest producers
W ld Pl ti P d ti 2010World Plastics Production 2010
L ti A i h t ti l f th b it 5 %
Source: PlasticsEurope
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Latin America has potential for growth above its 5 % population proportionality
Pl ti D d b R iPlastics Demand by Region139
136140
108105
99100
120
89
60
80kg per
capita
45 48
32 3630
24
46
4050
40
60
NAFTAW. Europe
J2005
2015 e
16
2421
20
1011
97
2
0
20
Y
L ti A i h t ti l f th
pJapan
WorldC. Europe
& CIS LatinAmerica Asia other
MEA
19802 3
Region
Year
Source: PlasticsEurope
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Latin America has potential for growth
Eth l P j t W ldEthylene Projects - WorldCHINA
Company Capacity [kt/yr]
Start Up [year] Status
Baotailong/LongMay Mining Group 300 studyChina Coal Shaanxi Yulin Energy & Chemical 570 2013 engineering underwayCNOOC 1,500 2016 study (feasibility)CNOOC 1 000 2016 planned
EUROPECompany Country Capacity
[kt/yr] Start Up
[year] Status
Repsol Polimeros Portugal 570 2011 delayedGazprom Neftekhim Salavat Russia 380 2015 engineering underwayKazanorgsintez JSC - (KOS) Russia 605 2010 completeNizhnekamskneftekhim Russia 1,000 planned CNOOC 1,000 2016 planned
Consortium 1,000 studyDalian Shide Group 1,300 2011 + studyDaqing Petrochemical 600 2T 2012 engineering underwayDow Chemical/Shenhua 600 delayedFREP 1,100 4T 2013 plannedFushun Petrochemical 800 2T 2012 engineering underwayKuwait Petroleum/Sinopec 1,000 2015 under constructionLanzhou Petrochemical 450 2Q 2011 plannedNingbo Lingzhou Chemical 40 plannedPetroChina Sichuan Petrochemical 800 2013 delayedQingdao Petrochemical 1,000 Pre-2020 study (feasibility)Rosneft / China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) 1,200 studyShaanxi Shenmu Chemical Industrial 150 2013 plannedShaanxi Xingwang Group 350 2015 studyShaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group Yulin Energy & 80 i i d
, pNovourengoyski Gas Chemical Complex Russia 340 2013 under constructionSibur Russia 1,500 2017 studyTaneco OJSC Russia 600 studyVNHK - Rosneft Russia 1,400 planned
6,395
U.S. - CANADACompany Location Capacity
[kt/yr] Start Up
[year] Status
Aither - Bayer Appalacchia - 2015 pre-feasibilityAppalachian Resins NE U.S. 227 2016 study (feasibility)BASF FINA Porth Arthur, TX - 2014 pre-feasibilityBraskem - pre-feasibilityChevron Phillips Cedar Bayou, TX 1,500 2017 planned g p gy
Chemicals 80 engineering underway
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. - (SPC) 700 2011-2012 studyShanxi Coking 300 2T 2014 under constructionSinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical 2,400 4T 2014 studySinopec 1,000 2016 study (feasibility)Sinopec 1,000 2016 + study (feasibility)Sinopec 600 under constructionSinopec Hainan Refining & Chemical Co. - (HRCC) 1,000 2015-2016 studySinopec Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical 1,000 studySinopec Wuhan Petrochemical 800 H1 2013 under constructionSinopec/Henan Coal Chemical Group 900 plannedSkyford Chemical - 1H 2012 under constructionTaizhou Petrochemical 1,200 2013 studyWison Nanjing Chemical 145 2013 under constructionXinjiang Guanghui Industry - 2015 study
MIDDLE EASTCompany Country Capacity
[kt/yr] Start Up
[year] Status
Gachsaran Petrochemical Iran 1,000 2015 under constructionIlam Petrochemical Iran 500 2015 under constructionKavian Petrochemical Iran 1 000 2012 under construction
Dow Chemical Freeport, TX 1,500 2014-2017 study (feasibility)Dow Chemical 800 plannedEastman Longiew, TX - engineering underwayExxonMobil Baytown, TX 1,500 2016 engineering underwayFormosa Point Comfort, TX 800 2016 pre-feasibilityIndorama 1,300 2018 study (feasibility)INEOS Chocolate Bayou, Alvin, TX 210 2013 studyLyondellBasell Channelview, TX 227 2012 plannedLyondellBasell Morris, IL 45 2013 plannedLyondellBasell La Porte, TX 386 2014 plannedLyondellBasell - Partner - studyMexichem - OxyChem Ingleside, TX 500 2016 studySasol Lake Charles, LA 1,400 2019 studyShell Monaca, PA 1,300 2016 pre-feasibilityWestlake Chemical Calvert City, Ky 204 1H 2014 study Xinjiang Guanghui Industry 2015 study
Yanchang Petroleum Group/Shaanxi Government 100 engineering underwayZhejiang Xingxing New Energy 300 2013
25,285
Kavian Petrochemical Iran 1,000 2012 under constructionKavian Petrochemical Iran 1,000 2013 engineering underwayPersian Gulf Iran 600 2014 studyEquate Petrochemical Kuwait 1,400 2015 + study
Duqm Refinery and Petrochemical Complex - (DRPC) Oman - study (feasibility)
Oman Petrochemical Industries Co. - (OPIC) Oman 850 1Q 2012 on holdExxonMobil Chemical/Qatar Petroleum Qatar 1,600 4T 2015 studyQatar Petrochemical Co Ltd - (Qapco) Qatar 900 1Q 2014 studyRas Laffan Olefins Co. - (RLOC) Qatar 1,450 studyShell/Qatar Petroleum Qatar 1,300 2017 plannedRabigh Refining and Petrochemical - (Petro-Rabigh) Saudi Arabia 1,600 2015 study (feasibility)Sadara Chemical Saudi Arabia 1,500 2H 2015 approvedSaudi Polymers Co Saudi Arabia 1,165 Q1 2012 completePetkim Turkey 575 studyAbu Dhabi National Chemicals (ChemaWEyaat) UAE 1 450 2015 + planned REST OF ASIA
Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 113 4Q 2012 study (feasibility)Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 113 4Q 2014 study (feasibility)Williams Geismar, LA 272 3Q 2013 study
TOTAL 12,397
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEANCompany Country Capacity
[kt/yr] Start Up
[year] Status
Dow Quimica Argentina 400 on holdYPFB Bolivia 1,050 2016 biddingBraskem JV Bolivia - Brazil 600 on holdBraskem Brazil 500 studyCOMPERJ Brazil 960 2018 plannedDow Chemical - Mitsui Brazil 350 2015 plannedSolvay Brazil 60 1Q 2015 plannedEcopetrol Colombia 1,000 2017 pre-feasibilityPDV - CUPET Cuba 200 studyBraskem IDESA Mexico 1,050 1Q 2015 engineering underwayPemex Mexico 900 2014-2015 studyPemex Mexico 900 2014-2015 study
Abu Dhabi National Chemicals (ChemaWEyaat) UAE 1,450 2015 + plannedAbu Dhabi Polymers Co Ltd - (Borouge) UAE 1,500 2T 2014 under construction
19,390
REST OF ASIACompany Country Capacity
[kt/yr] Start Up
[year] Status
ASM Chemical Industries Bangladesh 300 studyBrahmaputra Cracker and Polymers Ltd. - (BCPL) India 220 1H 2013 engineering underwayIndian Oil Corp - (IOC) India 850 2015 studyONGC Petro-additions Ltd - (OPaL) India 1,100 H1 2013 under constructionReliance India 1,400 4Q 2015 engineering underwayKazakhstan Petrochemical Industries - (KPI) Kazakhstan 840 2016 studyPetronas Malaysia 1,200 4T 2016 study (feasibility)Petronas Malaysia 1,000 study (feasibility)JG Summit Petrochemical Philippines 320 1H 2013 under constructionExxonMobil Singapore 1,000 2H 2012 under constructionShell Singapore 960 2014-2015 plannedHonam Petrochemical South Korea 1,000 5 2012 plannedS T t l P t h i l S th K 2011 d t ti
L ti A i h l t 12% f th l b l iSources: ICIS Chemical Business and Polyolefins Consulting
AFRICACompany Country Capacity
[kt/yr] Start Up
[year] Status
Total/Sonatrach Algeria 1,100 2014 delayedSidi Kerir Petrochemicals - (Sidpec) Egypt 460 plannedViva Polymers Ltd Nigeria - delayedSasol South Africa 48 approved
1,608
Pemex Mexico 900 2014 2015 studyPetroPeru - Braskem Peru 1,200 2018 study
SABIC and SINOPEC Trinidad and Tobago - study
Polimerica Venezuela 1,300 2015 study10,470
Samsung Total Petrochemicals South Korea - 2011 under constructionSamsung Total Petrochemicals South Korea 1,000 2011 under constructionCPC Taiwan 600 1Q 2013 plannedKuokuang Petrochemical Technology Corp Taiwan 1,200 2015 uncertainLong Son Petrochemical Co Vietnam 1,400 2014 study
14,390
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Latin America has almost 12% of the global increase
Eth l P j t A iEthylene Projects - AmericasU.S. - CANADA
Company Location Capacity [kt/yr]
Start Up [year] Status
Aither - Bayer Appalacchia - 2015 pre-feasibilityAppalachian Resins NE U S 227 2016 study (feasibility)Appalachian Resins NE U.S. 227 2016 study (feasibility)BASF FINA Porth Arthur, TX - 2014 pre-feasibilityBraskem - pre-feasibilityChevron Phillips Cedar Bayou, TX 1,500 2017 plannedDow Chemical Freeport, TX 1,500 2014-2017 study (feasibility)Dow Chemical 800 plannedEastman Longiew, TX - engineering underwayExxonMobil Baytown, TX 1,500 2016 engineering underwayFormosa Point Comfort, TX 800 2016 pre-feasibilityIndorama 1,300 2018 study (feasibility)INEOS Ch l t B Al i TX 210 2013 t dINEOS Chocolate Bayou, Alvin, TX 210 2013 studyLyondellBasell Channelview, TX 227 2012 plannedLyondellBasell Morris, IL 45 2013 plannedLyondellBasell La Porte, TX 386 2014 plannedLyondellBasell - Partner - studyMexichem - OxyChem Ingleside, TX 500 2016 studySasol Lake Charles, LA 1,400 2019 studyShell Monaca, PA 1,300 2016 pre-feasibilityWestlake Chemical Calvert City, Ky 204 1H 2014 studyWestlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 113 4Q 2012 study (feasibility)W tl k Ch i l L k Ch l LA 113 4Q 2014 t d (f ibilit )
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEANCompany Country Capacity
[kt/yr] Start Up
[year] Status
Dow Quimica Argentina 400 on holdYPFB Bolivia 1,050 2016 biddingB k JV B li i B il 600 h ld
Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA 113 4Q 2014 study (feasibility)Williams Geismar, LA 272 3Q 2013 study
TOTAL 12,397
Braskem JV Bolivia - Brazil 600 on holdBraskem Brazil 500 studyCOMPERJ Brazil 960 2018 plannedDow Chemical - Mitsui Brazil 350 2015 plannedSolvay Brazil 60 1Q 2015 plannedEcopetrol Colombia 1,000 2017 pre-feasibilityPDV - CUPET Cuba 200 studyBraskem IDESA Mexico 1,050 1Q 2015 engineering underwayPemex Mexico 900 2014-2015 studyPemex Mexico 900 2014-2015 study
Ab d t U S h l i fl L ti A iSources: ICIS Chemical Business and Polyolefins Consulting
PetroPeru - Braskem Peru 1,200 2018 study
SABIC and SINOPEC Trinidad and Tobago - study
Polimerica Venezuela 1,300 2015 study10,470
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Abundant U.S. shale gas influences some Latin American projects
Eth l P j t Addi 89 935 ktEthylene Projects – Adding 89,935 ktAfrica, 1,608
China, 25,285 LAC, 10,470
Europe, 6,395
U.S. - Canada, 11,670
LAC i di l d f 4th l i it iSource: ICIS Chemical Business and Polyolefins Consulting
Capacities in kt/yr
ME, 19,390 ROA, 14,390
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LAC is displaced from 4th place in capacity increases
PE Producers LACI t ll d C it E d f 2007 2009 d 2012Installed Capacity End of 2007, 2009 and 2012
Ipiranga11%
Rio Polimeros11%
PequivenQuattor
19%
Dow13% Pemex
20%
Dow13%
Dow14%
Pequiven8%
Polietilenos União3%
Pet. Triunfo3%
Solvay2%
E t l
19%
Pequiven10%
Solvay2%
Ecopetrol
Pequiven10%
Ecopetrol1%
Ecopetrol1%
Pemex20%
Ecopetrol1% Polimerica
0%
Braskem - IDESA0%
COMPERJ0%
4 647 kt/yr
Braskem27%
Pemex20%
5 354 kt/yr
Braskem35% Braskem
56%
5 468 kt/yr
All Brazilian producers consolidated into Braskem
4,647 kt/yr 5,354 kt/yr
Source: Polyolefins Consulting, LLC
5,468 kt/yr
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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All Brazilian producers consolidated into Braskem
PP Producers LACI t ll d C it E d f 2007 2009 d 2012Installed Capacity End of 2007, 2009 and 2012
Indelpro8%
Ipiranga8% Petroken
7%
Petroquim6%
Indelpro16%
Propilco12%
Petroken5%
Propilco16%
Petroken7%
Petroquim6%
Propilco14%
6%
Pet. Cuyo5%
Propilven4%
Petroquim4%
Pet. Cuyo4%
Propilven3%
Indelpro22%
6%
Pet. Cuyo5%
Propilven4%
Propilsur
B k
Quattor25%
0%
2,650 kt/yr
Suzano Pet.27%
Braskem21%
3,485 kt/yr
Braskem31%
3,835 kt/yr
Braskem40%
Braskem incorporated Ipiranga and Quattor Indelpro
, y 3, 85 t/y
Source: Polyolefins Consulting, LLC
3,835 t/y
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Braskem incorporated Ipiranga and Quattor, Indelpro surpassed Propilco
P t h i l M ltil ti B i Gl b lPetrochemicals Multilatinas Becoming GlobalAlpek – Mexico– The leading producer of PTA and polyester fibers in the
A i d th d i PET l PP d i M iAmericas and the second in PET, only PP producer in Mexico, operates the largest expanded PS unit in the Americas
– Operates 20 plants in the Mexico, Argentina, and U.S.Braskem – Brazil– Largest thermoplastic resins producer in the Americas, eight
largest in the world, largest biopolymer producer– Operates plants in Brazil, Germany, Mexico (2015) and U.S.
Mexichem – MexicoMexichem Mexico – Produces vinyl chloride monomer (VCM); PVC in Mexico and
Colombia; compounds in Mexico, Colombia and U.S.; and PVC pipe throughout LA and EuropeHas 95 plants in 19 countries– Has 95 plants in 19 countries
Oxiteno – Brazil – Largest producer of surfactants in Latin America– “To be recognized as the best Surfactants and SpecialtyTo be recognized as the best Surfactants and Specialty
Chemicals company in the Americas”– Operates plants in Brazil, Mexico, U.S. (2013), Uruguay, and
VenezuelaL ti A i t h i l i l b l
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Latin American petrochemical companies are global competitors
Al k M iAlpek – MexicoAlfa’s petrochemicals and
th ti fib b isynthetic fibers business groupProduces PTA, PET, PP, EPS, caprolactam, urethanes, glycols, chemical specialties, g y , p ,polyester fibers and nylon polymersDAK – the leading producer of PTA and polyester fibers in thePTA and polyester fibers in the Americas and second in PET
– also operates the largest EPS production site
Indelpro – only PP producer in Mexico. Plants in Mexico, Argentina and U.S.U.S.2011 revenues US$ 6.5 billion, earnings US$ 577 million
E di i ll d th h i iti
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Expanding organically and through acquisitions
B k B ilBraskem – BrazilLargest resin producer in the A iAmericas
– Building 1 million t/yr of C2 and 1 million t/yr of PE with IDESA in Mexico
– Developing projects in Peru and Venezuela
– Considering project in Bolivia– Participating in COMPERJ – Evaluating additional U.S.
acquisitions and expansions– Producing “green” PE from sugar– Producing green PE from sugar
cane ethanolPlants in Brazil, U.S. and Germany2011 revenues US$ 17.7 billion, earnings US$ -280 million
C l b ti it 10th i
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Celebrating its 10th anniversary
M i h M iMexichem – MexicoMost important chlorine, caustic
d PVC d i d isoda, PVC and pipe producer in Latin America and EuropeOver last few years made numerous acquisitionsq
– Bayshore Group (U.S.); Amanco (Latin America); Petco (Colombia); Geon Polimeros Andinos (Colombia); DripsaAndinos (Colombia); Dripsa (Argentina); Colpozos (Colombia); Bidim (Brazil); Comindustrias (Peru); Polycid and Plasticos Rex (Mexico);and Plasticos Rex (Mexico); INEOS Fluor (U.S., Europe, Asia); Plastisur (Peru); AlphaGary (U.S., Canada, UK); Wavin (Europe)Wavin (Europe)
2011 revenues US$ 3.4 billion, earnings US$ 194 million
E l ti JV ith O Ch t d 500 kt/ f C i
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Evaluating JV with OxyChem to produce 500 kt/yr of C2 in Texas
O it B ilOxiteno – BrazilIs a leading manufacturer of surfactants and specialty chemicals operating worldwideLargest prod cer ofLargest producer of surfactants in Latin AmericaNet revenue of US$ 1,438 billion in 2011billion in 2011Plants in Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela2011 revenues US$ 1 32011 revenues US$ 1.3 billion, earnings US$ 83 million
St th i l b l ith i iti i B il
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Strengthening global presence with acquisitions in Brazil, Uruguay and U.S.
B ilBrazilOne of the best economic outlooks in the region
The world’s 6th largest economy– The world s 6th largest economy– Stable economy aided by
• Exports to China• Petrobras pre-salt program success
R ff d i i t ti i t i d j t fid– Rousseff administration maintains and projects confidence
Petrobras– Fourth largest public company in the Americas, after ExxonMobil,
Microsoft and Wal MartMicrosoft and Wal-Mart– Planning to be among the largest five integrated energy companies in
the world– Pre salt reserves provide large increase of gas and oil offerings
Braskem– Largest plastic resin producer in the Americas– Planning to be among the largest five petrochemical companies in 2020
Largest producer of biopolymers– Braskem and Dow-Mitsui build world scale plants
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Able governmental political and diplomatic support helps its business grow and seduce the world
B li i I d t i li i N t l GBolivia – Industrializing Natural GasYPFB accountable for petrochemical projectspetrochemical projectsCarrasco– Ammonia-urea plant awarded to
SamsungWill d 650 kt/ f• Will produce 650 kt/yr of ammonia and 726 kt/yr of Urea
• Start up by 4Q2015 Yacuiba– Liquid Separation Plant awarded
to Técnicas Reunidas• By 2021 will process 27.7
million m3/d of natural gasmillion m /d of natural gas before crossing border into Argentina
• Start up by 2014– Plan to award conceptualPlan to award conceptual
engineering for 1050 kt/yr of C2and PE by October 18, 2012• Start up by 2016
M j j t d b t t l
Source: CIA The World Factbook
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Major projects under way, some concern about natural gas reserves and availability
P P t h i l C lPeru Petrochemical ComplexesGrupo Brescia (Peru) and Grupo Sigdo Koppers (Chile) Sigdo Koppers (Chile) – 800 kt/yr ammonia y 350 kt/r
ammonium nitrate at Pisco– US$ 650 million
Project under way– Project under wayCF Industries (U.S.) – 1 million t/yr urea at San Juan de
Marcona, IcaUS$ 1 billi– US$ 1 billion
– Orica Mining (Australia) with ammonium nitrate
– On holdBraskem, Petrobras and PetroPeru– 1,200 kt/yr ethylene and PE by 2018
at Ilo– Requires over 40 million m3 natural– Requires over 40 million m natural
gas to be viable and 1000 km duct from Camisea to the South
Successive administrations Fujimori Toledo Garcia
Source: CIA The World Factbook
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Successive administrations – Fujimori, Toledo, Garcia and Humala – promoted petrochemical projects
V l Th P t h i l R l tiVenezuela - The Petrochemical RevolutionJose project delayed to
Match expected sales upswing by 2014– Match expected sales upswing by 2014– Have better access to financing– Negotiate reduction in process equipment and contractor costs
PP plant will be built in Paraguaná– Propylene availability reduces investment from US$ 1200 to 500 million
Reconsidering PE plansSome uncertainty regarding natural gas availability
Reconsidered Jose PE projects potential move to ParaguanáSource: Pequiven
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Reconsidered Jose PE projects, potential move to Paraguaná, capacity increases in U.S. reduce attractive
M iMexicoContinuously decreasing oil production and revenue
Large resin importer, specially PE– Installed PE capacity in 2010 is 1.078 million t/yr– Importing approximately 600 ktImporting approximately 600 kt– Estimate that by 2015 Mexico will require 1.9 million t/yr PE
Etileno XXI - IDESA and BraskemP G ill id 66 th d b/d f th– Pemex Gas will provide 66 thousand b/d of ethane
– Cracker for 1,05 million t/yr of ethylene– Two 375 kt/yr MDPE/HDPE each, and 300 kt/yr LDPE/EVA– Start up in 2015Start up in 2015
Market even more anxious for new capacity while
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
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Market even more anxious for new capacity, while processors continue losing ground against imports
Oth t iOther countriesArgentina
Ecuador
Colombia
CubaCuba
Trinidad and Tobago
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
S th C Sh l G P t ti lSouthern Cone Shale Gas Potential
CountryRisked Gas
In PlaceTechnically
Recoverable Country In PlaceTCF
ResourceTCF
Argentina 2732 774
Bolivia 192 48
Brasil 906 226Brasil 906 226
Chile 287 64
Paraguay 249 62
Uruguay 83 21
Source: EIA – World Shale Gas Resources
TOTAL 4440 1195
A th ift f t t b t t d ti lTCF – trillion cubic feet
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Another gift from nature to be extracted promoting general welfare y and with great respect with the environment
Polyolefins Chain in Latin AmericaStrength and Proportion
Country Oil and 1st Generation
Ethylene2nd Generation
PE PP3rd Generation
PEnd users and
k tCountry gas yPropylene PE - PP Processors markets
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Peru
Colombia
Venezuela
Trinidad &
Source: Gas Energy Polyolefins Consulting
Tobago
MexicoArrow thickness represents relative strength
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Source: Gas Energy, Polyolefins Consulting
Countries have very obvious needs and more hidden ones Arrow thickness represents relative strength
P l l fi R M t i l A il bilitPolyolefins Raw Materials AvailabilityArgentina Brazil Chile Bolivia Peru Colombia Venezuela Trinidad &
TobagoCentral America
Mexico
RResources
Oil -Nat. gas -
B i t h i l 1st tiBasic petrochemicals – 1st generation
Ethylene - - - -Propylene - - - -
HighMediumLowVery low
- NoneC4 - - - - - - - -C6 - - - - - - - - - -C8 - - - - - - - - - -
NoneNo data
VA - - - - - - - - -Catalysts - - - - - - - - -Co catalysts - - - - - - - - - -y
Additives
Sh ld dd l t t t d t i lSource: Polyolefins Consulting
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
Should add value to extracted raw materials
P l l fi A il bilit d P iPolyolefins Availability and ProcessingArgentina Brazil Chile Bolivia Peru Colombia Venezuela Trinidad &
TobagoCentral America
Mexico
Resins – 2nd generation
PE - - - -EVA - - - - - - - - -Acrylate cop. - - - - - - - - - -PP - - - -
Machinery manufacturing
HighMediumLowVery low
- Nonemanufacturing
Processing
Compounding
Market size
NoneNo data
Market size
End users
Recycling
Waste mgmtWaste mgmt.
Th b i t iti i ll t i
Source: Polyolefins Consulting
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Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
There are business opportunities in all countries
S R i l P t h i l Off iSome Regional Petrochemical OfferingsChemicals Raw materials– Commodity
• Ethylene oxide• Monoethylene glycol
– Biodiesel– Ethanol– From Argentina and Brazily g y
– Specialty• Surfactants• Softeners
g
Softeners• Dispersants• Emulsifiers• Hydraulic fluids• Hydraulic fluids• Leather chemicals
– From Brazil. Mexico, Venezuela and UruguayVenezuela and Uruguay
f h i l d t i l
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
for chemicals and raw materials …
S R i l P t h i l Off iSome Regional Petrochemical OfferingsPolymers Additives– Commodity
• PE, PP, PET, PVC– Specialty
– Calcium stearate, zinc stearate, magnesium stearate, potassium stearatep y
• UHMWPE• Bio PE and PP
– Braskem Dow others
stearate– Phthalic Anhydride– Plasticizers & Auxiliaries
Braskem, Dow, others– From Brazil and Argentina – Corporacion Sierra Madre
(Mexico)Varteco Quimica Puntana– Varteco Quimica Puntana (Argentina)
f l d dditi
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
for polymers and additives …
S R i l P t h i l Off iSome Regional Petrochemical OfferingsMachinery– Plastics processing
• Blown film extrusion lines• Flexographic printersg p p• MD orientation machines• Flexible plastic recycling lines• Sheet extrusion linesSheet extrusion lines• Screen changer, gear pump, circular and flat dies• Nip roll and winders• Carnevalli Rulli Standard Rodofeli• Carnevalli, Rulli Standard, Rodofeli• From Brazil and Argentina
E i t f i d t i– Equipment for process industries• IMPSA Process, Tenaris
f hi
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
for machinery …
S R i l P t h i l Off iSome Regional Petrochemical OfferingsEnd products • Bags– Household products
• Office, Stationery & School accessories
• BOPET film• Cardboard like
corrugated plastic• Food (institutional)• Curtain and
accessories
• Bag-in-box packing• Form-fill-seal film• Pharmaceutical
• Household cleaning products
• Housewares
packaging• Zippers• Reusable boxes
– Industrial packaging• PET jars
• BOPP film• Geotextiles and big
bagsj• Masterbatches• Stretch film
g
– From Brazil, Guatemala, Costa Rica
f l ti d d t
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
for plastic end products …
S R i l P t h i l Off iSome Regional Petrochemical OfferingsServices– EPC - engineering, procurement, construction and plant start-up
• Argentina– AESA, Techint, Tecna, Hytech, , , y
• Bolivia– Bolpegas
• BrazilBrazil– Odebrecht
• ColombiaTipiel– Tipiel
• Mexico– ICA
V l• Venezuela– Pentech
d f i !
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
and for services!
Opportunities for suppliers, investors and hpurchasers
Still some opportunities for new PE producers – Projects in Peru, Bolivia, Brazil j , ,– Cartagena in Colombia and still additional capacity need in Mexico
Need for regional production of hexene or octene comonomers for PE
Need for additional EVA grades and production– Only Brazil produces EVA copolymers– 1 tubular and 2 autoclave plants
Additives and compounds– There are still opportunities for adding local production capacity
Processing opportunitiesProcessing opportunities– Sophisticated packaging industry– Agricultural, automotive compounds, pipe, and oil and gas applications – Opportunities for investment and consolidation
Regional and global suppliers– Chemicals, raw materials, polymers, additives, machinery, end products
and services
Th t iti th h t th l h i
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com
There are many opportunities throughout the value chain
S i N bPetroChemicalConsultingSee us in November…
Petrochemical Seminar 2012
gAlliance
Petrochemical Seminar 2012
Rio de JaneiroFriday, November 9, 2012
ICIS BOS September 13, 2012
Polyolefins Consulting, L.L.C.www.polyolefinsconsulting.com